Latest news with #OPEC+
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Oil headed for third straight week of gains as traders await Trump's decision on Iran
Oil was on track to close out its third week of gains as traders awaited President Trump's decision on whether the US will directly intervene in the Israel-Iran conflict. West Texas Intermediate futures (CL=F) traded just below $75 per barrel, and Brent crude (BZ=F), the international benchmark, hovered near $76. Oil futures were on pace to close up roughly 3% for the week, extending gains sparked by last Friday's outbreak of hostilities between Israel and Iran. Prices dipped slightly during early trading Friday as hopes for a diplomatic resolution grew after Trump indicated he would give diplomacy a chance before deciding on potential US involvement in the conflict. Despite the rally, Wall Street analysts remain cautious. On Friday, Citi said its research team sees a 'lower risk of material energy flow disruptions from the conflict.' 'Disrupting oil supply isn't in the interest of either Iran or the U.S.,' Citi analysts Spiro Dounis and his team wrote. "If Iran's 1.1 million barrels per day of oil exports were prices would only rise to around $75–78 per barrel—offering limited upside from current levels," he added. Goldman Sachs has projected that if the conflict escalates and Iran's oil supply were disrupted, prices could spike as high as $90 per barrel but decline back to the $60s in 2026 as Iran supply recovers. On Wednesday, analysts noted that exports from Iran—and shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil—remain unaffected. Wall Street also sees spare capacity from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) as a key buffer against supply shocks. 'While the exact magnitude is uncertain, we believe that above-average global spare capacity (worth around 4–5% of global demand), is the main cushion against Iran-specific disruptions, enabled by deeper-than-expected unwinding of OPEC+ production cuts,' wrote Goldman analyst Daan Struyven and his team. OPEC+ had already ramped up production in the months leading up to the Israel-Iran conflict. Ines Ferre is a senior business reporter for Yahoo Finance. Follow her on X at @ines_ferre. Click here for in-depth analysis of the latest stock market news and events moving stock prices Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
2 hours ago
- Business
- Yahoo
Crude Prices Pressured on Reduced Concern About an Imminent US Strike on Iran
July WTI crude oil (CLN25) today is down -0.26 (-0.35%), and July RBOB gasoline (RBN25) is up +0.0057 (+0.25%). Crude oil and gasoline prices today are mixed, with gasoline posting a 10-1/4 month high. Today's weaker dollar is bullish for energy prices. Also, concern about the Israel-Iran conflict is bullish for crude after Bloomberg reported Thursday that US officials are preparing for a possible strike on Iran. SoftBank's Masayoshi Son Unveils $1 Trillion AI Hub Proposal for U.S. to Rival China Crude Prices Pressured on Reduced Concern About an Imminent US Strike on Iran Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! However, crude prices were undercut after President Trump said he would wait two weeks to give diplomacy a chance before deciding if the US should attack Iran. Crude prices were also pressured on signs that Iran is ready to negotiate after Reuters reported that the Iranian government is ready to discuss limitations on uranium enrichment. So far, Iran has not impeded ship movement through the vital Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of the world's daily crude shipments. However, a French naval liaison group stated that navigational signals from over 1,000 vessels a day moving through the Strait had been disrupted due to "extreme jamming" of signals from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, which led to a collision of two tankers on Tuesday near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices continue to be undercut by tariff concerns after President Trump said last Wednesday that he intends to send letters to dozens of US trading partners within one to two weeks, setting unilateral tariffs ahead of the July 9 deadline that came with his 90-day pause. A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -7.2% w/w to 73.97 million bbl in the week ended June 13. Concern about a global oil glut is negative for crude prices. On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to a 411,000 bpd crude production hike for July after raising output by the same amount for June. Saudi Arabia has signaled that additional similar-sized increases in crude output could follow, which is viewed as a strategy to reduce oil prices and punish overproducing OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production. OPEC+ had previously planned to restore production between January and late 2025, but now that production cut won't be fully restored until September 2026. OPEC May crude production rose +200,000 bpd to 27.54 million bpd. Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of June 13 were -10.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -1.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -16.7% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending June 14 was unchanged w/w at 13.431 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd from the week of December 6. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending June 13 fell by -3 to a 3-3/4 year low of 439 rigs. Over the past 2-1/2 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen from the 5-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
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First Post
3 hours ago
- Business
- First Post
Trump creates tariff firewall against China, its companies turn attention to Brazil
China's energy strategy faces disruption as Israel's strikes on Iran threaten key oil supply routes. With US trade tensions rising, Chinese firms are pivoting to Brazil while Beijing accelerates its push for energy self-sufficiency. Analysts warn the conflict could weaken China's regional influence and diplomatic ambitions. read more China's decades-long push to secure energy dominance through partnerships with Iran is facing a major test as the Israel-Iran war threatens to choke Beijing's oil supply lines and disrupt its regional ambitions. The fallout, combined with escalating trade tensions with Washington, is prompting a reorientation of Chinese corporate interests toward markets like Brazil, according to a report by the Financial Times. Chinese President Xi Jinping this week urged restraint from all sides in the escalating Middle East conflict, while also criticising US interference in China's trade with Iran. Yet, concerns in Beijing are mounting as Israel continues to target Iranian oil and nuclear facilities. Analysts say this not only jeopardises China's access to cheap Iranian crude but also threatens its broader diplomatic and energy strategy in the region. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'If this situation continues to escalate, then they lose quite a bit, both in terms of their energy security and Iran as a strategic card that China holds,' said Gedaliah Afterman of Israel's Abba Eban Institute, speaking to FT. Iran has become a vital energy partner for China, particularly since US-led sanctions intensified in 2018. China buys the bulk of Iran's oil exports—reaching as much as 1.6 million barrels a day at its peak in 2024—and supplies Tehran with essential goods, including electronics, vehicles, and even nuclear equipment. But Iranian shipments to China dropped to 740,000 barrels a day by April, driven by fears of further sanctions and intensifying regional instability. The risk of an Iranian blockade of the Strait of Hormuz—through which billions of dollars in Gulf oil flows to China adds to Beijing's anxiety. While some Chinese analysts say OPEC+ producers may fill the gap in a worst-case scenario, any broader disruption would drive up prices and hit China's energy security. China's reliance on Gulf suppliers is significant. Besides Iran, Saudi Arabia is its largest oil provider outside Russia. In natural gas, over a quarter of China's LNG imports last year came from Qatar and the UAE. Even with long-term contracts, Chinese importers may be forced to turn to the spot market at higher costs if the regional crisis widens. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The FT report also highlights that President Xi's broader strategy of energy self-sufficiency may now accelerate. China is already the world's top user of oil, but under Xi, it has embarked on a massive renewable push. Solar and wind now make up 56% of total electricity power plant capacity, up from a third ten years ago. 'This crisis will only make Beijing double down,' said Neil Beveridge of Bernstein Research. 'If it wasn't happening fast enough before, it will be happening even faster now.' At the same time, the US-China rivalry continues to simmer. Former President Donald Trump has moved to harden trade restrictions on Beijing, creating what analysts describe as a 'tariff firewall.' Facing mounting pressure, many Chinese firms are increasingly eyeing Brazil as an alternative trade partner and investment destination, particularly in sectors like agriculture, green energy, and critical minerals. Beijing's broader diplomatic ambitions in the Middle East have also taken a hit. China's influence surged with its mediation of the 2023 Saudi-Iran deal and its 25-year cooperation pact with Tehran. But analysts were quoted by FT as highlighting its role as a neutral broker has been diminished by the latest conflict and its cautious response. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD 'The demise or the collapse of the Iranian system or the Iranian power as we knew it is not good news for China,' Yun Sun of the Stimson Center told FT. 'That indirectly means that American influence has expanded.' Experts echoed that for Beijing, the Israel-Iran war is a stark reminder of the vulnerability in its foreign energy bets and the geopolitical limits of its global aspirations.
Time of India
6 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
World markets on oil watch as Middle East tensions flare
Brent crude oil is up around 20 per cent so far in June, and set for its biggest monthly jump since 2020 as Israel/Iran tensions flare-up. Although relatively contained, the rise has not gone unnoticed just three years after Russia's invasion of Ukraine triggered a surge in energy prices that ramped up global inflation and sparked aggressive interest rate hikes. Here's a look at what rising oil means for world markets. How high? Oil prices have crept rather than surged higher with investors taking comfort from no noticeable interruption to oil flows. Still, pay attention. The premium of first-month Brent crude futures contract to that for delivery six months later this week rose to a six-month high as investors priced in an increased chance of disruptions to Middle East supply . It remained elevated on Friday. Trading at around $77 a barrel, oil is below 2022's $139 high, but is nearing pain points. "If oil goes into the $80-100 range and stays there, that jeopardizes the global economy," said ABN AMRO Solutions CIO Christophe Boucher. "We are just below that threshold." Supply shock? Traders have an eye on shipping, often seen as a key energy bellwether. About a fifth of the world's total oil consumption passes through the Hormuz Strait between Oman and Iran. Disruption here could push oil above $100, analysts say. Blocked shipping routes would compound any supply shock. Though the big oil producing countries that make up OPEC+ have promised an extra 1.2 million barrels a day, none has yet been shipped or delivered, said hedge fund Svelland Capital director, Nadia Martin Wiggen. Blocked shipping routes would mean this expected supply would not come into the international market, she said. She's watching freight rates closely. "So far, freight rates show that China, with the world's biggest spare refining capability, hasn't started panic buying oil on supply concerns," said Wiggen. "Once China starts to buy, freight rates will rise, and world's energy prices will follow." No oil, no growth Rising oil prices raise worries because they can lift near-term inflation and hurt economic growth by squeezing consumption. High oil prices work like a tax, say economists, especially for net energy importers such as Japan and Europe as oil is hard to substitute in the short term. Lombard Odier's chief economist Samy Chaar said that sustained oil prices above $100 a barrel would shave 1 per cent off global economic growth and boost inflation by 1 per cent. Unease rose after Israel launched its strike on Iran a week ago. An initial rally in safe-haven bonds soon evaporated as focus turned to the inflationary impact of higher oil. The euro zone five-year, five-year forward, a closely-watched gauge of market inflation expectations, climbed to its highest level in almost a month. "In the United States $75 oil is enough to, if it's sustained, boost our CPI forecast by about half a percent by the year end, to go from 3 to 3.5 per cent," said RBC chief economist Frances Donald. Turkey, India, Pakistan, Morocco and much of eastern Europe where oil is heavily imported are set to be hit hardest by the rise in crude prices. Those that supply it; Gulf countries, Nigeria, Angola, Venezuela and to some degree Brazil, Colombia and Mexico should get a boost to their coffers, analysts say. Oh king dollar A shift is taking place in the dollar. In recent years the currency has risen when oil rallies, but it has had only limited support from oil's latest rise, with a weekly gain of just 0.4 per cent. Analysts expect the dollar's downward trend to resume, given expectations of limited Middle East risks for now and underlying bearish sentiment. It has weakened around 9 per cent so far this year against other major currencies, hurt by economic uncertainty and concern about the reliability of U.S. President Donald Trump's administration as a trading and diplomatic partner. No doubt, a weaker dollar heals the sting from higher oil, which is priced in dollars. "For oil-importing countries, the dollar's fall offers some relief, easing the impact of soaring oil prices and mitigating wider economic strain," UniCredit said. Complacent stock? In the absence of an oil-supply shock, world stocks are happy to stick near all-time highs. "Investors want to look past this until there's a reason to believe this will be a much larger regional conflict," said Osman Ali, Goldman Sach's Asset Management's global co-head of Quantitative Investment Strategies. Gulf markets sold off on the initial news, then stabilised somewhat, helped by the higher oil prices. U.S. and European energy shares, particularly oil and gas companies have outperformed , as have defence stocks. Israeli stocks, up 6 per cent in a week, have been the most notable outperformer. Stocks of oil consumers have been the worst hit, airlines stand out.
Arabian Post
9 hours ago
- Business
- Arabian Post
OPEC+ Emerges as Pillar of Oil Market Stability
Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told delegates at the St Petersburg Economic Forum on 19 June that OPEC+ has evolved into a 'key guarantor' of global oil prices and market stability. The alliance's capacity to respond to evolving economic and geopolitical realities distinguishes it as an effective and trustworthy instrument for safeguarding the sector. At the forum, Prince Abdulaziz emphasised that OPEC+ adapts proactively to prevailing conditions. He was clear that any action by Riyadh or Moscow to offset potential disruptions in Iranian oil exports will be guided strictly by actual developments. 'We only react to realities,' he stated, declining to engage in hypotheticals—a stance aligned with OPEC+'s collective decision-making framework. Analysts say his comments come amid a sharp surge in crude prices, driven by escalating tensions following an Israeli assault on Iranian nuclear infrastructure. According to Reuters, Brent crude has climbed more than $10 per barrel in just one week, inflating the geopolitical risk premium. Despite this volatility, there has been no significant disruption to Middle Eastern oil exports to date. ADVERTISEMENT Prince Abdulaziz underscored the cohesive nature of OPEC+, which comprises 22 member countries. He affirmed that decisions are taken collectively rather than unilaterally by dominant players, a principle reaffirmed by his preference to 'react to realities' rather than speculation. The alliance's next meeting is scheduled for 6 July, when eight core producers—including Saudi Arabia, Russia, the UAE, Iraq, Kuwait, Oman, Algeria and Kazakhstan—will discuss production levels for August and beyond. Global demand forecasts also featured prominently in forum discussions. OPEC Secretary General Haitham Al Ghais noted increasing consumption in developing economies, especially during the northern hemisphere summer, reinforcing the need for calibrated production policies. Meanwhile, Kirill Dmitriev, head of Russia's RDIF, suggested that Russia, Saudi Arabia and the United States might reprise their 2020-era role in stabilising oil markets, citing historical precedents from the pandemic response. Despite the ability to moderate price swings, the alliance faces internal tensions. In May, Saudi Arabia and Russia spearheaded a 411,000 barrels‑per‑day production increase, despite earlier preferences among some members for a pause. Leaks from the meeting revealed discontent with non-compliant producers, prompting Riyadh to push through the increase to protect its market interests. Analysts suggest this indicates a strategic pivot: reclaiming market share over propping up prices alone. Meanwhile, geopolitical variables are influencing OPEC+ strategy. Rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, following conflict between Israel and Iran, have elevated concerns of supply disruption. However, as of mid‑June, the vital maritime route continues to operate without incident. The U.S. is reportedly weighing deeper engagement in the region, a development that could further complicate supply dynamics and pricing. The energy minister also highlighted collaboration beyond output quotas. Saudi Arabia and Russia are advancing joint efforts to create investor-friendly environments through joint ventures in energy and related sectors. Prince Abdulaziz confirmed plans for Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak to visit Riyadh later this year, accompanied by a large business delegation. He said the initiative aims to 'deepen bilateral economic ties and foster diversified investment opportunities,' affirming both countries' commitment to mutual investment facilitation. These comments reinforce the perception of OPEC+ as a stabilising force comparable to a central bank's role in financial markets. Prince Abdulaziz described the alliance as 'the central bank and regulator of the global oil market,' emphasising its flexibility and responsiveness to global economic shifts. He further noted the Kingdom's support for Russia amid external pressures, affirming Riyadh's diplomatic solidarity. Looking ahead, OPEC+ is poised to navigate the balance between maintaining price stability and managing production share. The upcoming 6 July meeting will be pivotal in determining whether the group confirms further increases or holds current output steady amid signal mixed signals from demand forecasts and geopolitical uncertainty.
