Hollywood loves a comeback story: What the 2025 box-office rebound means for summer blockbusters

The movie industry hasn't caught many breaks in recent years, even after rebounding from the Covid-19 pandemic. Studios were faced with a writers' strike, blockbusters that fell well below expectations and dilemmas over when to release movies into theaters before having them stream online.
The domestic box office continued a trend of getting the year off to a slow start, as January lacked a strong carryover movie from the holiday season or a surprise audience pleaser, renewing fears the industry faces long-term financial woes.
The box office for January 1 to April 3 was down 13% compared to the same time last year, which in turn was down 7.6% compared with 2023.
'It's not like a hard-and-fast rule that the first three months are typically slow. Sometimes they can be huge if you have a big holdover movie and a couple of breakout hits,' said Paul Dergarabedian, senior analyst at Comscore.
The first major release of 2025 was Marvel's 'Captain America: Brave New World,' which opened in February to more than $100 million over the four-day Presidents Day holiday weekend, only to see its earnings plunge 68% in the second week.
Things didn't improve much from there. In March, the box office was down nearly 50% compared with the same month last year, according to Comscore data. Ticket sales certainly weren't buoyed by Disney's 'Snow White,' which opened to a meager $43 million amid polarizing reactions about casting and politics.
But then came the turnaround.
April brought a wide variety of movies that drew in nostalgic audiences and moviegoers following positive buzz.
Carrying much of the load for the month was Warner Bros. Pictures. The studio's 'A Minecraft Movie' debuted to nearly $163 million, while Ryan Coogler's highly acclaimed 'Sinners' has exceeded expectations with over $275 million in domestic sales. Warner Bros. Discovery is the parent company of CNN.
Following the strong performance from 'Minecraft,' the industry had a record Memorial Day weekend that saw the box office up 22% compared with 2024.
It was led by Disney's live-action 'Lilo & Stitch' remake opening to a record $183 million. 'Lilo & Stitch' has so far grossed over $380 million domestically and may soon overtake 'Minecraft' ($423.9 million) as this year's biggest earner. Other May winners include the big-budget Disney/Marvel movie 'Thunderbolts' ($189 million), Paramount's 'Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning,' ($173 million) and Warner Bros.' 'Final Destination: Bloodlines' ($133 million).
The momentum has carried over into June with 'How to Train Your Dragon.' Universal's live-action remake has already grossed nearly $135 million since opening last weekend.
The overall box office is closing in on $4 billion for all of 2025 — an 18% gain compared to this time last year, according to Comscore data.
2023 marked the first post-pandemic year to earn more than $4 billion between the first Friday of May and Labor Day, according to Comscore.
Greg Durkin, founder of entertainment research firm Enact Insights, attributes the industry's comeback to a rise in quality films.
And high-potential movies are about to be released. Warner Bros. Pictures' 'F1' and Universal Pictures' 'M3GAN 2.0' are set to open Friday. July will include Universal Pictures' 'Jurassic World Rebirth,' and Warner Bros.' 'Superman,' which Durkin said will be 'tremendous' hits at the box office. He added that Disney's July release of 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' will also do well.
''Superman' and 'Fantastic Four' and maybe to a degree 'Jurassic World,' will be big players' to nearly reach $4 billion this summer, said Shawn Robbins, director of analytics at Fandango and founder and owner of Box Office Theory.
'We're not selling Frosted Flakes or Coca-Cola … This is a product that reinvents itself every week,' said Daniel Loria, editorial director at Boxoffice Pro.
Movies have 'fortunately' connected better with audiences, but it's still a 'risky business,' Loria added.
Having a diverse movie slate can be helpful. Since April, moviegoers have had the choice of children and family movies ('How to Train Your Dragon' and 'Lilo & Stitch'), action flicks ('Mission Impossible — The Final Reckoning'), horror ('Sinners') and romantic comedies ('Materialists').
'The lineup goes on hot and cold streaks. Something can look good on paper but not work in release, and vice versa,' said box office analyst David A. Gross, who publishes FranchiseRe.
Gross noted that even superhero movies, such as 'Captain America' and 'Thunderbolts,' haven't consistently performed well compared to pre-pandemic years.
And while April and May helped this year's box office bounce back from a slow start, June will be down about 6.5% compared to last year and down almost 26% compared with the pre-pandemic average, according to estimates from Gross.
'The 'recovery' compared with last year is slipping, so it's not time to pop the champagne just yet,' Gross said.
In times of broader political and economic uncertainty, Americans have shown they will pull away from expensive commitments and seek smaller pleasures. For some, that means trading in vacations and indulging in less expensive purchases.
'It's pretty cheap to go to a movie, relative to going to rent a house and get on a flight, or rent a car,' said Durkin. 'You still need that escapism.'
The movie theater is a social experience, Durkin said, which makes it fulfilling and worthwhile.
In Clarksdale, Mississippi — the town which inspired the setting of 'Sinners' — a special screening was hosted to allow locals in the theater-less town to watch the film together.
Moviegoers are still 'price sensitive,' Loria said. Although premium offerings can price a single ticket as high as $25 in cities like New York and Los Angeles, theater chains such as AMC offer discount screenings on Tuesdays. On July 9, AMC will start offering 50% discounts on Wednesdays.
'It's a relatively inexpensive way to escape the outside world for a couple of hours,' said Dergarabedian, adding that PG-rated films have been 'booming' as families head to theaters.
'Looking at 2025 in a vacuum — what a great recovery,' he said. 'It's all product-based. It's the movies that determine the box office, not the month.'

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Forbes

24 minutes ago

• Forbes

‘Elio' Has Worst Opening Weekend Ever For A Disney-Pixar Movie

A scene from "Elio." The new animated sci-fi adventure Elio is has set a new record low for a Disney-Pixar movie. Starring the voices of Zoe Saldaña, Brad Garrett and Yonas Kibreab (as the title character), Elio opened in theaters domestically on Friday. Like many of its Pixar predecessors, Elio arrived with positive reviews from Rotten Tomatoes critics with an 86% 'fresh' rating based on 105 reviews, which as of Sunday has dropped to 84% 'fresh' with 137 reviews counted. RT users loved Elio even more, as the film to date has earned a 91% 'fresh' Popcornmeter score based on 500-plus verified user ratings. But as Sunday's weekend box office numbers show, great reviews and enthusiastic audience vibes don't automatically translate into big ticket sales. According to Deadline, the PG-rated Elio is projected to earn $21 million from 3,750 North American theaters in its opening Friday to Sunday frame for a No. 3 finish behind another PG film, How to Train Your Dragon ($37 million), and the R-rated 28 Years Later ($30 million). Unfortunately for Disney-Pixar, the $21 million opening is far below the previous lowest opening number for the studio, which came in 2023 when Elemental earned $29.6 million from 4,035 North American theaters. Elio even opened with less domestically than Pixar's first feature, Toy Story, which grossed $29.1 million from 2,574 theaters in 1995. Adding insult to the film's box office injury, Elio had a production budget of $150 million before prints and advertising costs, according to The Numbers. One thing worth noting is that there have been other Disney-Pixar films that had lower opening numbers at the box office, but those releases with a huge caveat: Soul (2020), Luca (2021) and Turning Red (2022) all debuted on Disney+ during the COVID-19 pandemic before getting limited theatrical runs in 2024. Scene from "Inside Out 2." What Disney-Pixar Films Had The Best Opening Weekends? Elio's opening weekend of $21 million is a mere pittance to the biggest opening weekend for a Disney-Pixar film, which came in 2018 with the release of Incredibles 2 — which earned $182.6 million from 4,410 North American theaters. Incredibles 2 went on to make $608.5 million domestically finishing in third place at the 2018 North American box office behind Disney-Marvel's Black Panther ($700 million) and Avengers: Infinity War ($688.8 million). The second-highest-grossing opening weekend for a Disney-Pixar film came with last year's release of Inside Out 2, which earned $154.2 million from 4,440 North American theaters in its first Friday to Sunday frame. Inside Out 2 went on to be the biggest film at the domestic office last year, earning $652.9 million. Disney-Pixar will try to get its magic back with Toy Story 5, which is currently set for a June 19, 2026, release date. Elio, meanwhile, is playing in theaters nationwide.

24 minutes ago

‘How to Train Your Dragon' soars ahead of 'Elio,' '28 Years Later' in box office

NEW YORK -- Neither Pixar nor zombies were enough to topple 'How to Train Your Dragon" from the No. 1 slot at North American box offices over the weekend. The Universal Pictures live-action remake remained the top film, bringing in $37 million in ticket sales in its second weekend, despite the sizeable new releases of 'Elio' and '28 Years Later.', according to studio estimates Sunday. 'How To Train Your Dragon' has rapidly amassed $358.2 million worldwide. Six years after its last entry, the Dean DeBlois-directed 'How To Train Your Dragon' has proven a potent revival of the DreamWorks Animation franchise. A sequel is already in the works for the $150 million production, which remakes the 2010 animated tale about a Viking boy and his dragon. Pixar's 'Elio' had a particularly tough weekend. The Walt Disney Co. animation studio has often launched some of its biggest titles in June, including 'Cars,' 'WALL-E' and 'Toy Story 4.' But 'Elio,' a science fiction adventure about a boy who dreams of meeting aliens, notched a modest $21 million, the lowest opening ever for Pixar. 'This is a weak opening for a new Pixar movie,' said David A. Gross, who runs the movie consulting firm FranchiseRe. 'These would be solid numbers for another original animation film, but this is Pixar, and by Pixar's remarkable standard, the opening is well below average.' 'Elio,' originally set for release in early 2024, had a bumpy road to the screen. Adrian Molina — co-director of 'Coco' — was replaced mid-production by Domee Shi ('Turning Red') and Madeline Sharafian. Back at Disney's D23 conference in 2022, America Ferrera appeared to announce her role as Elio's mother, but the character doesn't even exist in the revamped film. Disney and Pixar spent at least $150 million making 'Elio,' which didn't fare any better internationally than it did in North America, bringing in just $14 million from 43 territories. Pixar stumbled coming out of the pandemic before stabilizing performance with 2023's 'Elemental' ($496.4 million worldwide) and 2024's 'Inside Out 2' ($1.7 billion), which was the company's biggest box office hit. 'Elemental' was Pixar's previously lowest earning film, launching with $29.6 million. It rallied in later weeks to collect nearly half a billion dollars at the box office. The company's first movie, 'Toy Story,' opened with $29.1 million in 1995, or $60 when adjusted for inflation. It remains to be seen whether 'Elio's' decent reviews and 'A' from CinemaScore audiences can lead it to repeat 'Elemental's' trajectory. With most schools on summer break, the competition for family audiences was stiff. Disney's own 'Lilo & Stitch,' another live-action remake, continued to pull in young moviegoers. It grossed $9.7 million in its fifth weekend, bringing its global tally to $910.3 million. . '28 Years Later' signaled the return of another, far gorier franchise. Director Danny Boyle reunited with screenwriter Alex Garland to resume their pandemic apocalypse thriller 25 years after '28 Days Later' and 18 years after its sequel, '28 Weeks Later.' The Sony Pictures release opened with $30 million. That was good enough to give Boyle, the filmmaker of 'Slumdog Millionaire' and 'Trainspotting,' the biggest opening weekend of his career. The film, which cost $60 million to make, jumps ahead nearly three decades from the outbreak of the so-called rage virus for a coming-of-age story about a 12-year-old (Alfie Williams) venturing out of his family's protected village. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Jodie Comer and Ralph Fiennes co-star. Reviews have been good (90% fresh on Rotten Tomatoes) for '28 Years Later,' though audience reaction (a 'B' CinemaScore) is mixed. Boyle has more plans for the zombie franchise, which will next see the release of '28 Years Later: The Bone Temple' next year from director Nia DaCosta. '28 Years Later' added another $30 million in 59 overseas markets. After its strong start last weekend with $12 million, A24's 'Materialists' held well with $5.8 million in its second weekend. The romantic drama by writer-director Celine Song and starring Dakota Johnson, Pedro Pascal and Chris Evans has collected $24 million so far. Next weekend should also be a competitive one in movie theaters, with both 'F1,' from Apple and Warner Bros., and Universal's 'Megan 2.0' launching in cinemas. With final domestic figures being released Monday, this list factors in the estimated ticket sales for Friday through Sunday at U.S. and Canadian theaters, according to Comscore: 1. 'How to Train Your Dragon,' $37 million. 2. '28 Years Later,' $30 million. 3. 'Elio,' $21 million. 4. 'Lilo & Stitch,' $9.7 million. 5. 'Mission: Impossible — The Final Reckoning,' $6.6 million. 6. 'Materialists,' $5.8 million. 7. 'Ballerina,' $4.5 million. 8. 'Karate Kid: Legends,' $2.4 million. 9. 'Final Destination: Bloodlines," $1.9 million. 10. 'Kuberaa,' $1.7 million.

Yahoo

25 minutes ago

• Yahoo

Travis Kelce reveals what movie is on Taylor Swift date night list

The post Travis Kelce reveals what movie is on Taylor Swift date night list appeared first on ClutchPoints. Taylor Swift and Travis Kelce shared why they are just like any other couple. Despite being at the top of their game in their respective fields, they too, enjoy a quiet night in with a good film. On Wednesday's episode of New Heights, which is co-hosted by Travis and his brother, Jason Kelce, the Kansas City Chiefs right end shared that he is 'down to watch' the 1990 classic romance comedy film Pretty Woman. The three-time Super Bowl champion revealed that the movie starring acting powerhouses Julia Roberts and Richard Gere 'has been on [his] and Tay's movie list for a while.' Unfortunately for fans, the athlete did not share any additional films that they have watched nor any films that the two are planning to watch. However, fans might already have a clue about what films the couple who began dating in 2023 are interested in watching through previous mentions on the podcast and Swift's lyrics. In the song 'So High School,' the 14-time Grammy winner sings, 'I'm watching 'American Pie' with you on a Saturday night.' The song, which was released last year and is found on the singer's The Tortured Poets Department album, is rumored to be about her relationship with Kelce so it might be likely that the two have crossed that one off the list. Previously on New Heights, Travis and Jason spoke about one of Swift's favorite films, Love Actually. While Travis said he 'couldn't relate to anybody onscreen' back in 2024, he said that the film was 'fun.' The two have been getting out of their shell with a recent appearance at Game 4 of the Stanley Cup Final. Swift also made a surprise visit to a children's hospital where she took photos with the staff and patients. She even made a sweet nod to Travis in a video shared on X. 'My boyfriend is training here, so I just thought I'd come and see how you're doing,' Swift told a patient during her visit to the Joe DiMaggio Children's Hospital in Hollywood, Florida. Not only did Swift put a smile on the faces of the patients, she also had a couple of photos with nurses, doctors, and most notably Jill Whitehouse who is the chief of surgery at the facility. 'Chief of Surgery meets Chief of the World! Undeniably one of the kindest human beings I have ever had the privilege of meeting. Thank you #taylorswift for making dreams come true for all of our patients, families, and staff today!' Whitehouse, captioned the photo. Swift and Travis have been spending a lot of time in Florida after the tight end rented a $20 million mansion while he practices at the minicamp. A source told PEOPLE that this season will have a different feeling since Swift won't be as busy unlike the previous seasons. 'Not just because she loves supporting Travis, but because for the first full season since they started dating, she's not juggling a packed tour schedule,' the source told PEOPLE last week. 'This fall will be completely different,' the source continued. 'It's the first season where she's not constantly flying back and forth or working around an entire touring calendar.' The 2025-26 season for the Chiefs will kick off on Sept. 5 in Sao Paulo, Brazil against the Los Angeles Chargers. Related: Pacers' Tyrese Haliburton makes WWE exception to social media rule Related: Fans won't like WWE star Liv Morgan's shoulder injury surgery update