Q&A Israel-Iran conflict: Does Israel have a secret nuclear programme?
The war that
Israel launched against Iran
seeks to take out its nuclear program, which much of the world views with alarm and experts say is growing to the point that it could make an atomic weapon within months.
Israel
has its own secretive nuclear weapons program, one that it doesn't publicly acknowledge but that, some experts believe, is also expanding.
'From an official diplomatic posture perspective, the Israelis will not confirm or deny' their nuclear arsenal, said Alexander K. Bollfrass, a nuclear security expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.
Instead, Israel has said it will not be the first country to 'introduce' nuclear weapons to the Middle East. That deliberately vague wording amounts to what Bollfrass called an 'obfuscation over what is clearly an established nuclear weapons program.'
READ MORE
[
Without an exit strategy, Israel risks bringing destruction to its doorstep in a war of attrition against Iran
Opens in new window
]
How big is Israel's nuclear arsenal?
Israel is widely believed to have at least 90 warheads and enough fissile material to produce up to hundreds more, according to the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation and the Nuclear Threat Initiative.
The International Atomic Energy Agency, the nuclear watchdog for the United Nations, has assessed that 30 countries are capable of developing nuclear weapons, but only nine are known to possess them. Israel has the second-smallest arsenal among the nine, ahead only of North Korea, according to a Nobel Prize-winning advocacy group, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons. Israel could fire warheads from fighter jets, submarines or ballistic missile ground launchers, experts said.
Israel is one of five countries – joining India, Pakistan, North Korea and South Sudan – that is not a signatory to the UN Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The agreement, which came into force in 1970, generally commits governments to promoting peaceful uses of nuclear energy and preventing the spread of nuclear weapons.
Israel would have to give up its nuclear weapons to sign the treaty, which recognises only five countries as official nuclear states: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States – the permanent members of the UN Security Council. All had detonated a nuclear weapon by 1967, the cut-off date in the treaty to qualify for the designation.
How long has Israel had nuclear weapons?
Israeli leaders were intent on building a nuclear arsenal to safeguard the country's survival soon after it was founded in 1948 in the wake of the Holocaust, historical records indicate.
The Israel Atomic Energy Commission was established in 1952, and its first chair, Ernst David Bergmann, said that a nuclear bomb would ensure 'that we shall never again be led as lambs to the slaughter,' according to the Jewish Virtual Library.
Israel began building a nuclear weapons development site in 1958, near the southern Israeli town of Dimona, researchers believe. A recently declassified US intelligence report from December 1960, by the Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee, stated that the Dimona project included a reprocessing plant for plutonium production. The report concluded that the project was related to nuclear weapons.
Around 1967, Israel secretly developed the ability to build nuclear explosives, according to the Arms Control Association. By 1973, the United States 'was convinced Israel had nuclear weapons,' the Federation of American Scientists later wrote.
Israel is not among the three dozen countries – all in Europe or Asia – considered to be protected by the US' so-called nuclear umbrella. That protection not only serves as an American deterrent against adversaries but also aims to encourage the countries not to develop their own nuclear weapons.
Experts said that the fact that Israel was not part of America's nuclear umbrella was another unspoken acknowledgment that Israel had its own atomic weapons and did not need protection or deterrence.
'Ultimately, there is a sense of responsibility that Israel's security rests with Israel, and they will do what is necessary to provide for that,' Bollfrass said.
Has Israel used its nuclear weapons in war?
No. The Jewish Virtual Library, which is considered among the world's most comprehensive Jewish encyclopedias, has cited reports that Israel prepared its nuclear bombs during the Arab-Israeli wars of 1967 and 1973, but the weapons were not used.
There have been a few reports over the past 50 years that Israel has tested its nuclear weapons at underground sites, including in the Negev desert in southern Israel.
The most prominent episode – and one that remains under debate – was in September 1979, when a US satellite designed to detect nuclear explosions reported a double flash near where the South Atlantic and Indian oceans meet. Some scientists believed that the double flash was likely to have been the result of a nuclear test by Israel or South Africa, or possibly by both.
Israel denied involvement in what is known as the Vela incident, for the satellite's name. Former President Jimmy Carter's White House diaries, published in 2010, cited 'growing belief' at the time that Israel had tested a nuclear explosion near the southern tip of South Africa. But that was never proven, and 'relevant documents for the Vela incident are still classified,' scientists Avner Cohen and William Burr wrote in 2020, citing the diaries.
Where does Israel build its nuclear weapons?
It's widely believed that Israel's nuclear weapons program is housed in Dimona.
Experts said it appeared that inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency had never been to the site and that there was no agreement with Israel that would allow the UN watchdog agency to monitor it. American scientists visited Dimona in the 1960s and concluded that the nuclear program there was peaceful, based on increasingly limited inspections, historical records show. But there is no public evidence that American inspectors have been back since.
Satellite photos show new construction at Dimona over the past five years. At a minimum, experts said, the facility is undergoing repairs and much-needed modernisation.
There is also a growing belief among some experts that Israel is building a new reactor in Dimona to increase its nuclear capability. A report released this week by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said Israel appeared to be upgrading a reactor site there to produce plutonium, which can be used for nuclear weapons and some peaceful purposes, like in space.
Because of its secrecy, Dimona has long been a symbol of fascination and, to some, anger over Israel's nuclear weapons program.
In a rare public event at the site in 2018, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel used it as a backdrop to warn enemies that 'those who threaten to wipe us out put themselves in a similar danger – and in any event will not achieve their goal.'
This article originally appeared in
The New York Times
.
2025 The New York Times Company
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Irish Times
7 hours ago
- Irish Times
Irish embassy in Tehran closed due to ‘deteriorating situation'
The Irish embassy in Tehran, Iran has been temporarily closed with staff being relocated to Ireland amid a 'deteriorating situation'. Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Harris said he had become 'increasingly concerned' about environment in which the embassy was functioning and the ability of diplomatic staff to work safely. 'It is in light of the deteriorating situation, following consultation with my officials and in very close consultation and co-ordination with EU partners, I have now decided to temporarily relocate our personnel from Tehran,' he said. Mr Harris said the relocation of staff was 'not a decision that I have taken lightly.' READ MORE 'Arrangements have been made for the embassy to continue its operations from our Dublin headquarters. Staff at my department's headquarters have now assumed the embassy's consular functions, and they remain in contact with the small number of Irish citizens remaining in Iran,' he said. The arrangements will continue until it is possible and safe for personnel to return to Iran, he said, and thanked ambassador to Iran, Laoise Moore and her staff for operating under 'very, very challenging circumstances.' Mr Harris reiterated advice that Irish citizens should not to travel to Iran or Israel. 'Citizens who live there and who wish to leave might consider departing through one of the land borders that is open as long as it is safe to do so,' he said. Mr Harris said he will continue to monitor the situation in the region and will be engaging with EU counterparts. 'My hope is that a diplomatic solution can be found to resolve this very dangerous conflict without further escalation or further loss of life in Iran or Israel,' he added.
Irish Times
7 hours ago
- Irish Times
‘Indications' Israel breached human rights obligations during Gaza war, EU review finds
A review by European Union officials has said there are 'indications' that Israel 's actions during the war in Gaza breached commitments to uphold human rights. The finding raises the prospect of the EU taking action against Israel for the first time since the start of the conflict. The review, a portion of which has been seen by The Irish Times, finds Israel's actions during its 20-month bombardment and invasion of Gaza constituted a failure to respect human rights. Focus will now likely turn to potential consequences for Israel, which EU states have to date been unable to find common ground on. READ MORE [ Israeli fire kills at least 44 Palestinians in Gaza Opens in new window ] The review examined whether Israel's actions in the Palestinian enclave had broken guarantees made about upholding human rights as part of the EU's 'association agreement' with Israel. The agreement governs relations between the two sides and includes a free trade deal, access to research funding and enhanced political dialogue. A majority of EU states last month supported a review taking place to determine whether Israel's military campaign in Gaza had broken human rights commitments signed up to as part of the agreement. The review was carried out by officials from the EU diplomatic corps, which is led by foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas. It was shared with diplomats from EU states on Friday evening. It concluded: 'On the basis of the assessments made by the independent international institutions ... There are indications that Israel would be in breach of its human rights obligations under Article 2 of the EU-Israel association agreement'. The findings will be debated at a meeting of EU foreign affairs ministers in Brussels on Monday. Tánaiste and Minister for Foreign Affairs Simon Harris is expected to advocate for the EU to use what leverage it has, to put pressure on Israel to allow humanitarian aid into Gaza. It is expected ministers will ask Ms Kallas to come back to a further meeting next month, with a set of proposed actions the EU could take against Israel, such as possibly suspending parts of the EU-Israel association deal. A group of nine states, including Ireland, Spain, Belgium and Poland, have suggested the EU needs to do more to cut off trade with illegal Israeli settlements in the West Bank and other occupied Palestinian territories. More than 55,000 Palestinians have been killed during Israel's military campaign in Gaza, which began after Hamas militants who control the enclave attacked southern Israel on October 7th, 2023. The governments of Ireland and Spain first called for a review of the EU-Israel deal in February of last year, but received little backing at the time. The worsening humanitarian situation in Gaza, exacerbated by Israel's recent blockade preventing food and aid getting into the territory for several weeks, saw growing support within the EU to exert political pressure on Israel to change course. It is understood the Israeli government has been lobbying EU states intensely behind the scenes through diplomatic and high-level political channels to push back on those efforts. Some of Israel's staunchest allies – Germany, Hungary and Czechia – had opposed the review taking place, as did the governments of Italy and Greece. 'We want to, through this process, up the pressure on Israel to change what they are doing,' a diplomat from one EU state said of the review. 'We want a broad agreement as possible on the outcome of the review.'
Irish Times
7 hours ago
- Irish Times
Another week, another war: Trump pivots from America first to talk of a bunker buster
Story of the Week Another week. Another war. The prospect of carnage and thousands of deaths. Worrying questions about its impact on the region and beyond, the impacts on global stability. Israel 's launch of a war against Iran was not defensive or triggered by any attack. Rather it is a war of choice. Its stated aims at the start – eliminating Iran's nuclear threat – quickly pivoted into something else , regime change, or, more accurately, regime destruction. True to his make-it-up-as-you-go-along presidency, Donald Trump had pivoted within a day from his strict America first non-interventionist stance on international wars (a strong position with his MAGA base) to cheerleading the Israelis and threatening to deploy the only piece of arsenal the Israel Defense Forces do not have. That is, the 14-tonne so-called bunker-buster bomb which just might be able to penetrate into Fordo, the mountain where the Iranian regime has its main underground nuclear enrichment facility. [ Netanyahu's ruling party gets popularity boost in wake of Iran conflict Opens in new window ] True to form, Trump tells the whole of Tehran (population 10 million) to evacuate. Which, by all reports, most citizens have done. Meanwhile the Israelis and Iranians continue to pound each other. READ MORE The move has drawn attention away from Israel's continuing onslaught against the population of Gaza . The statement of the G7 was read by some as troubling as it seemed to give almost unconditional support for what Israel had done. Of course, a war between Israel and Iran is a different proposition than its siege of Gaza, as the Iranian regime is unsavoury by any yardstick. It seems that Israel's move to being an international pariah – even in the eyes of erstwhile supporters – has been modified, with some ambivalence expressed. Make no mistake it will employ the same ruthlessness and indifference to civilian casualties as it has done in Gaza and elsewhere. There is a long and sad history of intervention by big global powers in this region, where regime-change unfortunately leads to a new regime that is in some cases worse than the henchmen they replaced. Meanwhile Ireland continues to work to try to assist the few hundred citizens still in Iran and Israel. The Tánaiste has spoken to foreign affairs ministers in the region but, in truth, there is little our State can do bring influence to bear. Bust-up Row of this week. And every week. When you meet all the leaders outside the chamber they are all so civil. But there's something about the cauldron of the Dáil chamber that brings out the raspiness in Micheál Martin , Mary Lou McDonald , Simon Harris and Pearse Doherty . No matter what the issue it descends within seconds into a dogfight. If you want a perfect summary of what happened this week there no better place to start than these two (verbal) blow-by-blow accounts Miriam Lord. The first is here and the second is here . All very well but does it affect me? The story was almost missed given everything else that was happening this week but it was a significant moment in recent Irish political and financial history. AIB bought the very last part of its shareholdings back from the State making it a fully independent entity once more. After the financial crash, the State took shares in our two biggest pillar banks, Bank of Ireland and AIB, in order to make sure they survived. Bank of Ireland, which was less exposed to the property crash, came out of State ownership relatively quickly but it has been a long and slow process for AIB, taking almost a decade and a half. But the moment finally arrived this week. And Joe Brennan has a wonderful account of it , including that enticing line that at one stage the bank's art collection was worth more than the bank. Banana Skin When you go on a solo run as a Minister, just make sure the ball does not slip form your grasp. Minister for Arts and Media Patrick O'Donovan found out all about that this week, when he got a slap on the wrist from the bean counters in the Department of Public Expenditure and Reform (DPER). In recent months, O'Donovan brought two memos to Cabinet, 'under his arm', without informing DPER first. The memos related to the Arts Council 's half-abandoned ICT project as well as a plan to spend €10 million bringing an American football NFL game to Croke Park later this year. As Ellen Coyne reports , a senior DPER official said this practice 'makes it very difficult for this department, and indeed for Government generally, to thoroughly and properly consider issues and their implications, particularly regarding substantial expenditure implications and serious governance issues'. O'Donovan's spokespeople said there were time pressures involved which required him to bring both matters to Cabinet at short notice. He would not want to make a habit of it, as far as DPER is concerned. Winners and losers Winner: Colin Hunt, AIB's chief executive and former special adviser ministers for Finance. This week, the bank bought back the last of the shares held by the State since the banking collapse in 2010. Loser: Children's Hospital Ireland, which faced a grilling and dressing-down for its many failings at the Oireachtas Committee on Health. The Big Read Jack Horgan-Jones is on political column duty this week. Miriam Lord's Saturday column is a must-read. Martin Wall and Jack also have a big piece looking at the CHI in crisis. Hear here Sally Hayden joins Inside Politics on Friday from Beirut where missiles flying overhead have become a fact of daily life despite the ceasefire agreement Lebanon signed with Israel last November. The rising death toll and continuing aerial attacks from Iran and Israel show no signs of abating. And is the US on the verge of joining Israel's attack on Iran? Meanwhile, Children's Health Ireland appeared before the Oireachtas Health Committee this week with politicians eager to tear strips off the embattled group responsible for running children's hospital services in Dublin . Could the Israel-Iran war completely destabilise the Middle East? Listen | 49:01
