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New York Times
16 hours ago
- Politics
- New York Times
Israel Says Iran Struck With Missile Armed With Cluster Munitions
The Israeli military said Iran launched a missile with a cluster munition warhead at a populated area in central Israel on Thursday, according to Lt. Col. Nadav Shoshani, a military spokesman — the first report of that type of weapon being used in the current war. Iran's mission to the United Nations declined to respond to the Israeli claim, which was linked to a ballistic missile that struck Or Yehuda, Israel, and nearby towns. No one was killed by the missile or its bomblets, and it was unclear if anyone was injured. ` Cluster munitions have warheads that burst and scatter numerous bomblets, and are known for causing indiscriminate harm to civilians. More than 100 countries have signed on to a 2008 agreement to prohibit them — but Israel and Iran have not adopted the ban, nor have major powers like the United States, Russia, China and India. Videos and photographs verified by The New York Times show an unexploded bomblet on the patio of an apartment building in Or Yehuda after an Iranian missile barrage on Thursday. The object, which resembles a narrow artillery shell or rocket warhead, is most likely a submunition similar to those that have armed some Iranian ballistic missiles since 2014, according to Fabian Hinz, a research fellow at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, a London-based think tank. 'The chances of hitting something increase when you have a missile that might not be as pinpoint-accurate as you would like it to be,' Mr. Hinz said in an interview. 'Sometimes you might not need that much destructive force — imagine you want to hit an air-defense or a missile-defense system. These things are not armored, they are pretty soft targets, so just having a geographical spread of the attack could be worth it even if the explosive force and penetrative power is less.' Want all of The Times? Subscribe.
Irish Times
2 days ago
- Politics
- Irish Times
Q&A Israel-Iran conflict: Does Israel have a secret nuclear programme?
The war that Israel launched against Iran seeks to take out its nuclear program, which much of the world views with alarm and experts say is growing to the point that it could make an atomic weapon within months. Israel has its own secretive nuclear weapons program, one that it doesn't publicly acknowledge but that, some experts believe, is also expanding. 'From an official diplomatic posture perspective, the Israelis will not confirm or deny' their nuclear arsenal, said Alexander K. Bollfrass, a nuclear security expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. Instead, Israel has said it will not be the first country to 'introduce' nuclear weapons to the Middle East. That deliberately vague wording amounts to what Bollfrass called an 'obfuscation over what is clearly an established nuclear weapons program.' READ MORE [ Without an exit strategy, Israel risks bringing destruction to its doorstep in a war of attrition against Iran Opens in new window ] How big is Israel's nuclear arsenal? Israel is widely believed to have at least 90 warheads and enough fissile material to produce up to hundreds more, according to the Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation and the Nuclear Threat Initiative. The International Atomic Energy Agency, the nuclear watchdog for the United Nations, has assessed that 30 countries are capable of developing nuclear weapons, but only nine are known to possess them. Israel has the second-smallest arsenal among the nine, ahead only of North Korea, according to a Nobel Prize-winning advocacy group, the International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons. Israel could fire warheads from fighter jets, submarines or ballistic missile ground launchers, experts said. Israel is one of five countries – joining India, Pakistan, North Korea and South Sudan – that is not a signatory to the UN Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. The agreement, which came into force in 1970, generally commits governments to promoting peaceful uses of nuclear energy and preventing the spread of nuclear weapons. Israel would have to give up its nuclear weapons to sign the treaty, which recognises only five countries as official nuclear states: Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States – the permanent members of the UN Security Council. All had detonated a nuclear weapon by 1967, the cut-off date in the treaty to qualify for the designation. How long has Israel had nuclear weapons? Israeli leaders were intent on building a nuclear arsenal to safeguard the country's survival soon after it was founded in 1948 in the wake of the Holocaust, historical records indicate. The Israel Atomic Energy Commission was established in 1952, and its first chair, Ernst David Bergmann, said that a nuclear bomb would ensure 'that we shall never again be led as lambs to the slaughter,' according to the Jewish Virtual Library. Israel began building a nuclear weapons development site in 1958, near the southern Israeli town of Dimona, researchers believe. A recently declassified US intelligence report from December 1960, by the Joint Atomic Energy Intelligence Committee, stated that the Dimona project included a reprocessing plant for plutonium production. The report concluded that the project was related to nuclear weapons. Around 1967, Israel secretly developed the ability to build nuclear explosives, according to the Arms Control Association. By 1973, the United States 'was convinced Israel had nuclear weapons,' the Federation of American Scientists later wrote. Israel is not among the three dozen countries – all in Europe or Asia – considered to be protected by the US' so-called nuclear umbrella. That protection not only serves as an American deterrent against adversaries but also aims to encourage the countries not to develop their own nuclear weapons. Experts said that the fact that Israel was not part of America's nuclear umbrella was another unspoken acknowledgment that Israel had its own atomic weapons and did not need protection or deterrence. 'Ultimately, there is a sense of responsibility that Israel's security rests with Israel, and they will do what is necessary to provide for that,' Bollfrass said. Has Israel used its nuclear weapons in war? No. The Jewish Virtual Library, which is considered among the world's most comprehensive Jewish encyclopedias, has cited reports that Israel prepared its nuclear bombs during the Arab-Israeli wars of 1967 and 1973, but the weapons were not used. There have been a few reports over the past 50 years that Israel has tested its nuclear weapons at underground sites, including in the Negev desert in southern Israel. The most prominent episode – and one that remains under debate – was in September 1979, when a US satellite designed to detect nuclear explosions reported a double flash near where the South Atlantic and Indian oceans meet. Some scientists believed that the double flash was likely to have been the result of a nuclear test by Israel or South Africa, or possibly by both. Israel denied involvement in what is known as the Vela incident, for the satellite's name. Former President Jimmy Carter's White House diaries, published in 2010, cited 'growing belief' at the time that Israel had tested a nuclear explosion near the southern tip of South Africa. But that was never proven, and 'relevant documents for the Vela incident are still classified,' scientists Avner Cohen and William Burr wrote in 2020, citing the diaries. Where does Israel build its nuclear weapons? It's widely believed that Israel's nuclear weapons program is housed in Dimona. Experts said it appeared that inspectors from the International Atomic Energy Agency had never been to the site and that there was no agreement with Israel that would allow the UN watchdog agency to monitor it. American scientists visited Dimona in the 1960s and concluded that the nuclear program there was peaceful, based on increasingly limited inspections, historical records show. But there is no public evidence that American inspectors have been back since. Satellite photos show new construction at Dimona over the past five years. At a minimum, experts said, the facility is undergoing repairs and much-needed modernisation. There is also a growing belief among some experts that Israel is building a new reactor in Dimona to increase its nuclear capability. A report released this week by the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute said Israel appeared to be upgrading a reactor site there to produce plutonium, which can be used for nuclear weapons and some peaceful purposes, like in space. Because of its secrecy, Dimona has long been a symbol of fascination and, to some, anger over Israel's nuclear weapons program. In a rare public event at the site in 2018, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel used it as a backdrop to warn enemies that 'those who threaten to wipe us out put themselves in a similar danger – and in any event will not achieve their goal.' This article originally appeared in The New York Times . 2025 The New York Times Company
Irish Times
5 days ago
- Business
- Irish Times
Is Russia's war-driven economy approaching its 1989 moment?
Speculation that Russia 's economy would crash under the weight of western sanctions has proved wide of the mark. In 2023 and 2024, the economy grew by 3.6 and 4.1 per cent in GDP (gross domestic product) terms, nine and four times the rate of growth recorded by the EU, one of the main architects of the sanctions. There is of course the devalued rouble, elevated inflation (running at 10 per cent) and the central bank's prohibitive 20 per cent interest rate (which has caused a liquidity crisis in the private sector) to contend with. But the economy isn't exactly hanging by a thread as many of Moscow's opponents might have hoped. READ MORE Nonetheless, within this seeming resilience lies a trap, the same trap that contributed to the collapse of the Soviet Union in the 1980s and a trap that Vladimir Putin cannot easily walk back from. It may be the reason why the Russian president has, to date, resisted US overtures to sign up to a truce , even one that would be favourable to Moscow's strategic ambitions. Since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine , Russia has turned itself into a wartime economy, devoting an ever-increasing volume of resources to its military campaign in Ukraine. According to the International Institute for Strategic Studies' latest Military Balance report, Russia's military expenditure last year was forecast at 13.1 trillion roubles (€143 billion), or 6.7 per cent of the country's GDP, 40 per cent up on the previous year. [ Sanctions threat hikes up pressure in game of Ukraine ceasefire tennis Opens in new window ] This accelerated level of military spending has generated a multiplier effect across the economy, creating what some economists call 'military Keynesianism'. The transformation has allowed Russia keep growing in simple GDP terms with companies such as Rostec, the state-owned defence conglomerate, doubling production but at the expense of creating a heavily distorted economy concentrated around hydrocarbons and the military-industrial complex. According to estimates from the Institute for Economics and Peace, about 30-35 per cent of Russian economic growth in 2023 was directly attributable to military production. And therein lies the trap. Russia needs to be at war to keep the economy moving but it can't keep this level of military spending up indefinitely, particularly if oil and gas prices keep falling, and the EU, formerly one of the main buyers of Russian energy, keeps boycotting; and with the anchor of western sanctions. As historian Niall Ferguson argues: 'The USSR was not defeated militarily, but collapsed under the weight of its own economic contradictions, mainly the unsustainable level of military spending.' Rough estimates suggest Soviet military spending rose to 10-20 per cent of GDP in the 1980s as the USSR tried to keep pace, militarily, with the US. Technological innovation that might have supported post-Soviet Russia was rerouted into defence industries. According to the Russian Association for Electronic Communications, some 70,000 IT specialists fled the country at the start of the Ukraine war, a significant brain drain. Converting Russia's militarised economy back into a normal civilian economy without triggering a huge economic reversal will be extremely difficult. The US did it after the second World War but only with access to foreign markets, significant investment from abroad and a robust private sector, things that Russia cannot rely on given its pariah status globally. Putin may have backed himself into an economic cul-de-sac. Military misadventures have also historically been a precursor to revolution in Russia. Tsar Nicholas II's botched military campaigns in Asia, culminating in the disastrous Russo-Japan war of 1904-05, activated conditions for the Russian Revolution of 1917, which toppled the tsarist regime. The Soviet Union's 1979 invasion of Afghanistan, which resulted in heavy casualties and a humiliating climbdown, was a significant factor in the collapse of that regime in 1989. Peace is potentially more of a threat to the economy than war even if the casualty count is colossal It is impossible to gauge what is going on inside Russia politically, given the regime's stranglehold on power and the Kremlin's near complete control of the media. That said, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin's unimpeded march on Moscow in 2023 cast Putin's hold on power in a different light. Just how vulnerable the Russian president has made himself by invading Ukraine is impossible to say. But Russia's militaristic spiral means peace is potentially more of a threat to the economy than war even if the casualty count is colossal (according to one estimate, 250,000 Russian soldiers have been killed). Hence there are incentives for the Kremlin to draw out the conflict, deter US-led peace initiatives and/or open up new military fronts. Countries such as Moldova, Georgia and Kazakhstan sit uneasily in the crosshairs of Putin's revanchist agenda. A more immediate problem for Moscow and a potential check on its war ambitions comes from oil and gas prices, which, at least before Israel's attack on Iran's nuclear programme, had been weakening consistently. The net profits of Russian oil and gas firms fell to $9.9 billion in the first quarter of 2025, down from $18 billion for the same period of 2024, according to data from Russia's statistics agency Rosstat. A third of Russia's budget comes from the oil and gas sector. Western governments were caught off guard by the sudden collapse of the USSR in 1989. It's conceivable that Putin's regime, riven by the same contradictions, is on a similar trajectory.
Telegraph
03-06-2025
- Politics
- Telegraph
Ukraine strikes Putin's prized spy planes
Ukraine has damaged at least two of Russia's rare A-50 surveillance aircraft in its audacious drone attack on Vladimir Putin's strategic bomber fleet, according to intelligence shared with The Telegraph. Footage shared with this publication clearly showed one of the Ukrainian drones hitting the radar dome of a hulking Soviet-era spy plane sitting on the apron of an air base. The aircraft was protected with what appeared to be sandbags aligned across its wings. A second A-50, shielded by tyres carefully lined across its airframe, also appeared to be hit by a Ukrainian-piloted drone, again landing on its radar dome. The fresh intelligence sheds new light on what has been likened to Russia's 'Pearl Harbour moment' – in reference to the surprise Japanese attack that brought the US into the Second World War. It is not clear whether the Russian A-50s were destroyed, but even damaging the aircraft would be considered a prized scalp by the Ukrainians. Moscow was believed to only have seven operational versions of the spy planes, which are estimated to be worth £235 million each, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies. The A-50s are considered highly important for organising Russia's air defences and coordinating fighter jets and bomber aircraft attacking Ukraine. Ukrainian officials had claimed to have struck at least one of the spy planes before, but the footage shared with The Telegraph remains the only proof of their apparent success. The three-minute-long video clip showed an array of Tupolev bombers engulfed in flames after direct hits from Ukrainian drones, which were launched from modified shipping containers parked near four air bases deep inside Russia. Open source satellite images taken by Maxar Technologies on May 2, almost a month before the Ukrainian attack, appeared to show two A-50s parked alongside each other at Ivanovo Severny air base, one of the bases targeted. The two aircraft were spotted being shielded with debris lined up carefully across their wings, as in the drone footage shared with The Telegraph. It was clear from the footage that it is the two same A-50s, as one of their radar hulls is tinged with a brownish colouring. Many of the other Russian planes targeted in the Ukrainian strikes appeared to also be shrouded beneath similar makeshift defences. Operation Spider's Web, as Ukraine dubbed it, was coordinated by the country's SBU security service. Officials said around 40 Russian aircraft were destroyed or damaged in the operation, which took 18 months to plan for and execute. Western intelligence officials have claimed that a lower number, around 11, Russian aircraft were likely destroyed or damaged in the strikes. Although sources said Western agencies continue to assess new data as they receive it. The surprise attack was celebrated by European capitals as a demonstration of Ukrainian ingenuity. But they later said it did little to change the picture on the battlefield, where Russia continues to make grinding gains through eastern Ukraine at high cost. 'This does not change the battlefield equation,' one official said. 'And the hard reality is that in the Donbas, over the last couple of months, the Russians are making progress square kilometre by square kilometres. At a high cost, but a minimum of 200 square kilometres every month.'
CNA
02-06-2025
- General
- CNA
Undersea security an increasingly paramount concern for nations
The growing importance of undersea security was a topic of discussion at the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore this past weekend. The International Institute for Strategic Studies has described the subsea domain as an increasingly critical arena in its Asia Pacific Regional Assessment. An extensive network of undersea cables, which spans more than a million kilometres — transcending international and continental boundaries — carries the vast majority of the world's internet traffic. Most cable damage is unintentional due to human error or natural disaster, but there has been growing concerns over intentional damage through sabotage or espionage.
