Is Iran the Next North Korea? How Tehran's isolation may deepen due to war with Israel

As the Israeli campaign has reduced Iran to a shadow of its former self, the regime appears set to become the next North Korea in terms of isolation. Here is how the Islamic Republic's isolation is set to increase irrespective of the way the ongoing conflict ends. read more
Iranian flags fly as fire and smoke from an Israeli attack on Sharan Oil depot rise, following Israeli strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran. Reuters
For years, Iran had remained one of the two powerhouses of West Asia despite being piled with sanctions over its nuclear programme. A network of allies across the world and proxies in the region were central in achieving the feat. But that changed last week.
Over the past six days, Israel has reduced Iran to a mere shadow of its former self — its military leadership is largely dead, scores of military sites have been destroyed, critical infrastructure has been hammered, and air defence systems have essentially been neutralised.
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As neither its allies, Russia and China, nor its proxies, such as Hezbollah, are in a position to support Iran, the regime appears set to fall into isolation like that of North Korea — if not worse. Unlike Ayatollah Khamenei of Iran, Kim Jong-Un of North Korea at least has nuclear weapons as ultimate deterrence.
New power dynamics to drive Iran into isolation
While wars with Hamas and Hezbollah after the October 7 attack had already changed power dynamics in West Asia, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has further solidified it.
Iran was the military powerhouse of West Asia on the back of its military strength, its network of proxies, strategic depth in Syria, and alliance with China and Russia. However, since the October 7 attack, the war in the Gaza Strip has reduced Hamas to a shadow of its former self, the war in Lebanon has battered Hezbollah, and the conflict with Houthis in Yemen has degraded their abilities. Iran has also lost its strategic depth in Syria with the ouster of Bashar al-Assad.
With no direct substantial support from Russia and China and having lost its own strength and that of its proxies, Iran is no longer is in a position to assert power. This is bound to increase Iran's isolation in the world and reduce its relevance even for its allies.
With mounting sanctions, poor economy, and a battered economy, Iran appears set to be the next North Korea, but without nuclear weapons, which at least assure dictator Kim security.
No good options with Iran
Even if Iran survives this war and develops a nuclear weapon under the belief that only nuclear weapons can assure its security, the regime would be headed towards a future like North Korea.
While Russia and Iran don't want Iran to be defeated, they also don't want it to have a nuclear weapon. Developing a nuclear weapon would put Iran in a situation where it could get security guarantee at the cost of even its allies giving up on the relationship.
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Nuclear weapons is a red line even for allies. Regarding the war in Ukraine, China had conveyed to Russia that the usage of nuclear weapons should be off the table.
Internal troubles to worsen problems
Unlike North Korea, Iran has visible disgruntlement against the rulers that comes to a boil every few years.
In 2022, after the regime's morality police killed a young woman for the purported violation of hijab laws, hundreds of thousands of people took to streets for weeks in an uprising that shattered the impression of Khamenei's grip on Iranians. While the regime cracked down on the movement with brute force and the movement eventually died, it showed the world that a large chunk of the population is just waiting for the opportunity to rise against the regime.
The weakening of the regime as a result of the war with Iran and subsequent isolation could provide grounds for another uprising.

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Islamabad has extended strong rhetorical support to Tehran amid the ongoing Iran-Israel conflict, calling Israel's actions a 'violation of all rules of civilised behaviour…and international humanitarian law'. Yet it has stopped short of making any tangible military commitments to Iran. Earlier this week, when a top Iranian general claimed on television that Pakistan had promised to extend its nuclear deterrent to Iran, Pak Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar issued a swift denial, saying 'there [had] been no such statement' from Islamabad's side. Islamabad's tightrope walk vis-à-vis Tehran was also apparent in statements that came out during Army Chief General Asim Munir's visit to Washington this week. Even as Gen Munir in a public address on Wednesday declared 'clear and strong' support for Iran, the Pak military press release after his meeting with US President Donald Trump later that day simply stated that both US and Pakistan 'emphasised the importance of resolution of the conflict'. 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There have been at least 15 border clashes — most often after Iran has struck alleged terrorist targets across the border — in the past decade alone, most recently in January 2024. 🔴 Iran and Pakistan have historically been at odds over Afghanistan. Like India, Shia-majority Iran supported the anti-Taliban Northern Alliance forces in the late 1990s, out of concerns stemming from a strongly anti-Shia group ruling a neighbour with which it shares a 921-km-border. Notwithstanding the current strain in ties, Pakistan has historically patronised the Taliban. 🔴 Pakistan's relationship with Saudi Arabia, which funds and sustains several networks of Sunni madrasas in the country, has often come at the expense of its potential ties with Iran. This is notable given that Sunni sectarian groups in Pakistan, often nurtured in these madrasas, have long persecuted the country's Shia minority. Iran's post-Revolution rupture with the US and Pakistan's continuing reliance on American support has further complicated the Islamabad-Tehran relationship. This is at the heart of Islamabad's current balancing act. Pakistan is a rentier economy, reliant on foreign aid. During the Cold War, even as India chose to remain non-aligned, Pakistan under Gen Ayub Khan joined the Western bloc, positioning itself as a bulwark against communist expansion in South Asia. This enshrined a certain reliance on the US that has persisted over the decades (although the relationship has seen its fair share of ups and downs, depending on Washington's interest in the region). Post the September 11, 2001 terror attacks in the US, Pakistan acted as a springboard for US action against Taliban in Afghanistan. Islamabad was the welcome recipient of an enormous amount of American material and military support during this time — whose dividends it continues to reap even today. But NATO's pullout from Kabul in 2021, and Washington shifting from its Afghanistan-centric 'War on Terror' to more China-centric Indo-Pacific objectives removed the default reason for US-Pakistan cooperation. During his term, former US President Joe Biden neither spoke to nor met any senior Pak leader. With Iran potentially becoming embroiled in a prolonged conflict with Israel (and by extension the US, although the degree of American involvement remains unclear), Pakistan likely sees an opening to restore its geostrategic importance to Washington. Even though it provides rhetorical support to Iran, its instant and vocal rejection of extending any military assistance to Tehran will be reassuring for the US (and Israel). This might also make Pakistan an ideal player (at least in its own eyes) to potentially de-escalate the conflict, something that would further bolster its relevance for the US. Trump said after his (long-scheduled) meeting with Gen Munir: '[The Pakistanis] know Iran very well, better than most… It's not that they're bad with Israel, they know them both actually…'. On June 16, Pak Foreign Minister Dar claimed that Islamabad was making efforts to amplify Iran's willingness to negotiate with the US (contingent on Israel halting its strikes). From India's perspective, there are three key points to note here. 🔴 India has long made efforts to isolate Pakistan diplomatically, and enjoyed a degree of success in this regard. But recent India-Pak hostilities during Op Sindoor, and the US response to them — Trump himself has repeatedly taken credit for the ceasefire, much to New Delhi's displeasure — has presented Islamabad with a window to re-hyphenate itself with New Delhi, and re-inject some substance in its bilateral relationship with the US. Pakistan's attempts to play up American mediation (with regards to Op Sindoor), and its tone vis-à-vis Iran when talking to the US are a part of its ongoing strategy to regain relevance as a regional player. 🔴 Iran has been a key element in India's strategy to circumvent Pakistan in regional connectivity projects. India's investment and operation of the deep-sea port in Chabahar, and the International North South Trade Corridor through Iran, potentially threaten to undermine the importance of Pakistan's own deep sea port at Gwadar (merely 70 km away on the same coast). Inherent limitations aside, Pakistan has sufficient reasons to make the most of any opportunity to wean Tehran away from New Delhi. Support for Iran, rhetorical though it may be, is seen by Islamabad as a means to do this, especially since New Delhi's own statements neither condemn nor condone either side. It must be noted, however, that this is insufficient to credibly threaten India-Iran ties, which are rooted in mutual strategic interests. 🔴 Pakistan's view of Israeli action against Iranian nuclear sites might also be coloured by its own experience during Op Sindoor, and the possibility of India hitting Pakistan's nuclear storage sites during a future conflict. For Pakistan, Israel's actions being potentially normalised by the international community might set a precedent for India to act similarly in the future. That said, there is no comparison between Iran, which is yet to weaponise its nuclear capabilities and Pakistan, a declared nuclear weapons power for almost three decades. Unlike Israel, India remains committed to being a responsible nuclear weapons power, with respect for both international nuclear safety norms as well its 1991 agreement with Pakistan to not attack each other's nuclear installations. Bashir Ali Abbas is a Senior Research Associate at the Council for Strategic and Defense Research, New Delhi