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First Post
10 hours ago
- Politics
- First Post
A nation shaped by defiance and intervention: Will Iran's next chapter be any different?
As Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu calls for regime change in Iran and US President Trump considers backing it militarily, many fear history repeating itself. From the 1953 coup to the 1979 revolution, Iran's political evolution has been turbulent. If the Islamic Republic collapses, what would follow? read more Iranian flags fly as fire and smoke from an Israeli attack on Sharan Oil depot rise, following Israeli strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran, June 15, 2025. File Image/WANA via Reuters Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has gone beyond his initial aim of destroying Iran's ability to produce nuclear weapons. He has called on the Iranian people to rise up against their dictatorial Islamic regime and ostensibly transform Iran along the lines of Israeli interests. United States President Donald Trump is now weighing possible military action in support of Netanyahu's goal and asked for Iran's total surrender. If the US does get involved, it wouldn't be the first time it's tried to instigate regime change by military means in the Middle East. The US invaded Iraq in 2003 and backed a NATO operation in Libya in 2011, toppling the regimes of Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi, respectively. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In both cases, the interventions backfired, causing long-term instability in both countries and in the broader region. Could the same thing happen in Iran if the regime is overthrown? As I describe in my book, Iran Rising: The Survival and Future of the Islamic Republic, Iran is a pluralist society with a complex history of rival groups trying to assert their authority. A democratic transition would be difficult to achieve. When the Shah was overthrown The Iranian Islamic regime assumed power in the wake of the pro-democracy popular uprising of 1978–79, which toppled Mohammad Reza Shah Pahlavi's pro-Western monarchy. Until this moment, Iran had a long history of monarchical rule dating back 2,500 years. Mohammad Reza, the last shah, was the head of the Pahlavi dynasty, which came to power in 1925. In 1953, the shah was forced into exile under the radical nationalist and reformist impulse of the democratically elected Prime Minister Mohammad Mosaddegh. He was shortly returned to his throne through a CIA-orchestrated coup. Despite all his nationalist, pro-Western, modernising efforts, the shah could not shake off the indignity of having been re-throned with the help of a foreign power. The revolution against him 25 years later was spearheaded by pro-democracy elements. But it was made up of many groups, including liberalists, communists and Islamists, with no uniting leader. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD The Shia clerical group (ruhaniyat), led by the Shah's religious and political opponent, Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, proved to be best organised and capable of providing leadership to the revolution. Khomeini had been in exile from the early 1960s (at first in Iraq and later in France), yet he and his followers held considerable sway over the population, especially in traditional rural areas. When US President Jimmy Carter's administration found it could no longer support the shah, he left the country and went into exile in January 1979. This enabled Khomeini to return to Iran to a tumultuous welcome. How an Islamic Republic was birthed In the wake of the uprising, Khomeini and his supporters, including the current supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, abolished the monarchy and transformed Iran to a cleric-dominated Islamic Republic, with anti-US and anti-Israel postures. He ruled the country according to his unique vision of Islam. Khomeini denounced the US as a 'Great Satan' and Israel as an illegal usurper of the Palestinian lands – Jerusalem, in particular. He also declared a foreign policy of ' neither east, nor west' but pro-Islamic, and called for the spread of the Iranian revolution in the region. Khomeini not only changed Iran, but also challenged the US as the dominant force in shaping the regional order. And the US lost one of the most important pillars of its influence in the oil-rich and strategically important Persian Gulf region. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Fear of hostile American or Israeli (or combined) actions against the Islamic Republic became the focus of Iran's domestic and foreign policy behaviour. When Khamenei took power Khomeini died in 1989. His successor, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, has ruled Iran largely in the same jihadi (combative) and ijtihadi (pragmatic) ways, steering the country through many domestic and foreign policy challenges. Khamenei fortified the regime with an emphasis on self-sufficiency, a stronger defence capability and a tilt towards the east – Russia and China – to counter the US and its allies. He has stood firm in opposition to the US and its allies – Israel, in particular. And he has shown flexibility when necessary to ensure the survival and continuity of the regime. Khamenei wields enormous constitutional power and spiritual authority. He has presided over the building of many rule-enforcing instruments of state power, including the expansion of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps and its paramilitary wing, the Basij, revolutionary committees, and Shia religious networks. The Shia concept of martyrdom and loyalty to Iran as a continuous sovereign country for centuries goes to the heart of his actions, as well as his followers. Khamenei and his rule enforcers, along with an elected president and National Assembly, are fully cognisant that if the regime goes down, they will face the same fate. As such, they cannot be expected to hoist the white flag and surrender to Israel and the US easily. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD However, in the event of the regime falling under the weight of a combined internal uprising and external pressure, it raises the question: what is the alternative? Will the Shah return? Many Iranians are discontented with the regime, but there is no organised opposition under a nationally unifying leader. The son of the former shah, the crown prince Reza Pahlavi, has been gaining some popularity. He has been speaking out on X in the last few days, telling his fellow Iranians: The end of the Islamic Republic is the end of its 46-year war against the Iranian nation. The regime's apparatus of repression is falling apart. All it takes now is a nationwide uprising to put an end to this nightmare once and for all. Since the deposition of his father, he has lived in exile in the US. As such, he has been tainted by his close association with Washington and Jerusalem, especially Netanyahu. My Fellow Countrymen, The Islamic Republic has reached its end and is in the process of collapsing. Khamenei, like a frightened rat, has gone into hiding underground and has lost control of the situation. What has begun is irreversible. The future is bright, and together, we… — Reza Pahlavi (@PahlaviReza) June 17, 2025 STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD If he were to return to power – likely through the assistance of the US – he would face the same problem of political legitimacy as his father did. What next for Iran? Iran has never had a long tradition of democracy. It experienced brief instances of liberalism in the first half of the 20th century, but every attempt at making it durable resulted in disarray and a return to authoritarian rule. Also, the country has rarely been free of outside interventionism, given its vast hydrocarbon riches and strategic location. It's also been prone to internal fragmentation, given its ethnic and religious mix. The Shia Persians make up more than half of the population, but the country has a number of Sunni ethnic minorities, such as Kurds, Azaris, Balochis and Arabs. They have all had separatist tendencies. Iran has historically been held together by centralisation rather than diffusion of power. Should the Islamic regime disintegrate in one form or another, it would be an mistake to expect a smooth transfer of power or transition to democratisation within a unified national framework. At the same time, the Iranian people are highly cultured and creative, with a very rich and proud history of achievements and civilisation. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD They are perfectly capable of charting their own destiny as long as there aren't self-seeking foreign hands in the process – something they have rarely experienced. Amin Saikal, Emeritus Professor of Middle Eastern and Central Asian Studies, Australian National University; and Vice Chancellor's Strategic Fellow, Victoria University This article is republished from The Conversation under a Creative Commons license. Read the original article.
Scottish Sun
13 hours ago
- Politics
- Scottish Sun
Where is the Ayatollah? Madcap ‘Supreme Leader' holed up in lair – but still an ‘easy target' for Trump's bunker busters
Click to share on X/Twitter (Opens in new window) Click to share on Facebook (Opens in new window) IRAN'S supreme leader has scurried away to an underground bunker in a Tehran suburb amid threats to his life, according to reports. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is believed to be cowering away in the secret lair as Israeli missile attacks rain down nearby. 9 Smoke rises following what Iran says was an Israeli attack on Sharan Oil depot in Tehran Credit: Reuters 9 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks to a group of people and officials Credit: AP 9 A fire blazes in the oil depots of Shahran, northwest of Tehran Credit: AFP 9 B-2 Spirit drops a GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bomb Credit: USAF 9 Two informed sources inside the country told Iran International the country's ageing dictator is holed up in the bunker in Lavizan, a neighbourhood in Tehran. It is among the areas in Iran to have been rocked by explosions over the past few days. Khamenei's family are also with him, the sources added, including his son Mojtaba - who is seen as a potential heir to the supreme leader. The Ayatollah also reportedly sought refuge in this bunker during Iranian strikes in April 2024 and October 2024. It comes as the conflict between Israel and Iran continues to escalate - and Donald Trump weighs up whether to get directly involved. Both countries having fired missile barrages at each other over the past week. Israel claims its attacks against Iran are necessary to stop it crafting a nuclear bomb - which Israeli officials claim is an imminent risk. However, this view is disputed by some in the US intelligence world, and Iran insists its nuclear programme is peaceful. Donald Trump withdrew from a nuclear deal with Iran and several other countries during his first term in 2018. A diplomatic source told Iran International that Israel could have taken out Khamenei on the first night of its operations. Iran's murderous hospital blitz foiled by Israel at last minute, president reveals But Israel reportedly chose to give him a final chance to abandon Tehran's uranium enrichment programme. Trump will decide whether the US will get directly involved in a war with Iran within the next two weeks, the White House has said. In a Truth Social Post, Trump said: "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. "He is an easy target, but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. "But we don't want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin." The US is currently the only country to wield 30,000lb "bunker buster" bombs that could take out underground targets beyond the reach of conventional munitions. 9 Trump pictured in the Oval Office Credit: The Mega Agency 9 These Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bombs can burrow deep inside the ground before blowing up. Trump claims he vetoed an Israeli proposal to assassinate Khamenei, according to US officials. But one senior Israeli official has put out a strongly worded threat to the Iranian supreme leader. Defence minister Israel Katz said: "Khamenei openly declares that he wants Israel destroyed – he personally gives the order to fire on hospitals. "He considers the destruction of the state of Israel to be a goal. Such a man can no longer be allowed to exist." Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel is ready to "remove" the nuclear threat from Iran. Israel is itself widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, although the country maintains ambiguity over this. However, other top Israeli figures have taken a more cautious tone on regime change. President Isaac Herzog told Axel Springer Global Reporters: "We don't have a goal on Khamenei, nor do we have a goal on regime change. "But it could be historically a clear side effect of major historical consequences that will do good to the Iranian people." Russia, a close international partner of the Iranian regime, has said it would react "very negatively" if Khamenei is killed. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Sky News that the supreme leader's assassination would "open the Pandora's box". 9 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a televised message Credit: Reuters
The Irish Sun
13 hours ago
- Politics
- The Irish Sun
Where is the Ayatollah? Madcap ‘Supreme Leader' holed up in lair – but still an ‘easy target' for Trump's bunker busters
IRAN'S supreme leader has scurried away to an underground bunker in a Tehran suburb amid threats to his life, according to reports. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is believed to be cowering away in the secret lair as Israeli missile attacks rain down nearby. Advertisement 9 Smoke rises following what Iran says was an Israeli attack on Sharan Oil depot in Tehran Credit: Reuters 9 Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks to a group of people and officials Credit: AP 9 A fire blazes in the oil depots of Shahran, northwest of Tehran Credit: AFP 9 B-2 Spirit drops a GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP) bomb Credit: USAF 9 Two informed sources inside the country told Iran International the country's ageing dictator is It is among the areas in Iran to have been rocked by explosions over the past few days. Khamenei's family are also with him, the sources added, including his son Mojtaba - who is seen as a potential heir to the supreme leader. The Ayatollah also reportedly sought refuge in this bunker during Iranian strikes in April 2024 and October 2024. Advertisement read more on iran It comes as the conflict between Both countries having fired missile barrages at each other over the past week. Israel claims its attacks against Iran are necessary to stop it crafting a nuclear bomb - which Israeli officials claim is an imminent risk. However, this view is disputed by some in the US intelligence world, and Iran insists its nuclear programme is peaceful. Advertisement Most read in The US Sun Donald Trump withdrew from a nuclear deal with Iran and several other countries during his first term in 2018. A diplomatic source told Iran International that Israel could have taken out Khamenei on the first night of its operations. Iran's murderous hospital blitz foiled by Israel at last minute, president reveals But Israel reportedly chose to give him a final chance to abandon Tehran's uranium enrichment programme. Trump will decide whether the US will get directly involved in a war with Iran within the next two weeks, the White House has said. Advertisement In a Truth Social Post, Trump said: "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. "He is an easy target , but is safe there – We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now. "But we don't want missiles shot at civilians, or American soldiers. Our patience is wearing thin." The US is currently the only country to wield 30,000lb "bunker buster" bombs that could take out underground targets beyond the reach of conventional munitions. Advertisement 9 Trump pictured in the Oval Office Credit: The Mega Agency 9 These Trump claims he vetoed an Israeli proposal to assassinate Khamenei, according to US officials. Advertisement But one senior Israeli official has put out a strongly worded threat to the Iranian supreme leader. Defence minister Israel Katz said: "Khamenei openly declares that he wants Israel destroyed – he personally gives the order to fire on hospitals. "He considers the destruction of the state of Israel to be a goal. Such a man can no longer be allowed to exist." Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu has said Israel is ready to "remove" the nuclear threat from Iran. Advertisement Israel is itself widely believed to possess nuclear weapons, although the country maintains ambiguity over this. However, other top Israeli figures have taken a more cautious tone on regime change. President Isaac Herzog told Axel Springer Global Reporters: "We don't have a goal on Khamenei, nor do we have a goal on regime change. "But it could be historically a clear side effect of major historical consequences that will do good to the Iranian people." Advertisement Russia, a close international partner of the Iranian regime, has said it would react "very negatively" if Khamenei is killed. Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov told Sky News that the supreme leader's assassination would "open the Pandora's box". 9 Ayatollah Ali Khamenei speaks in a televised message Credit: Reuters 9 Fire of Israeli attack on Sharan Oil depot is seen following the Israeli strikes on Iran Credit: Reuters Advertisement
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First Post
2 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
Is Iran the Next North Korea? How Tehran's isolation may deepen due to war with Israel
As the Israeli campaign has reduced Iran to a shadow of its former self, the regime appears set to become the next North Korea in terms of isolation. Here is how the Islamic Republic's isolation is set to increase irrespective of the way the ongoing conflict ends. read more Iranian flags fly as fire and smoke from an Israeli attack on Sharan Oil depot rise, following Israeli strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran. Reuters For years, Iran had remained one of the two powerhouses of West Asia despite being piled with sanctions over its nuclear programme. A network of allies across the world and proxies in the region were central in achieving the feat. But that changed last week. Over the past six days, Israel has reduced Iran to a mere shadow of its former self — its military leadership is largely dead, scores of military sites have been destroyed, critical infrastructure has been hammered, and air defence systems have essentially been neutralised. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD As neither its allies, Russia and China, nor its proxies, such as Hezbollah, are in a position to support Iran, the regime appears set to fall into isolation like that of North Korea — if not worse. Unlike Ayatollah Khamenei of Iran, Kim Jong-Un of North Korea at least has nuclear weapons as ultimate deterrence. New power dynamics to drive Iran into isolation While wars with Hamas and Hezbollah after the October 7 attack had already changed power dynamics in West Asia, the conflict between Israel and Hamas has further solidified it. Iran was the military powerhouse of West Asia on the back of its military strength, its network of proxies, strategic depth in Syria, and alliance with China and Russia. However, since the October 7 attack, the war in the Gaza Strip has reduced Hamas to a shadow of its former self, the war in Lebanon has battered Hezbollah, and the conflict with Houthis in Yemen has degraded their abilities. Iran has also lost its strategic depth in Syria with the ouster of Bashar al-Assad. With no direct substantial support from Russia and China and having lost its own strength and that of its proxies, Iran is no longer is in a position to assert power. This is bound to increase Iran's isolation in the world and reduce its relevance even for its allies. With mounting sanctions, poor economy, and a battered economy, Iran appears set to be the next North Korea, but without nuclear weapons, which at least assure dictator Kim security. No good options with Iran Even if Iran survives this war and develops a nuclear weapon under the belief that only nuclear weapons can assure its security, the regime would be headed towards a future like North Korea. While Russia and Iran don't want Iran to be defeated, they also don't want it to have a nuclear weapon. Developing a nuclear weapon would put Iran in a situation where it could get security guarantee at the cost of even its allies giving up on the relationship. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Nuclear weapons is a red line even for allies. Regarding the war in Ukraine, China had conveyed to Russia that the usage of nuclear weapons should be off the table. Internal troubles to worsen problems Unlike North Korea, Iran has visible disgruntlement against the rulers that comes to a boil every few years. In 2022, after the regime's morality police killed a young woman for the purported violation of hijab laws, hundreds of thousands of people took to streets for weeks in an uprising that shattered the impression of Khamenei's grip on Iranians. While the regime cracked down on the movement with brute force and the movement eventually died, it showed the world that a large chunk of the population is just waiting for the opportunity to rise against the regime. The weakening of the regime as a result of the war with Iran and subsequent isolation could provide grounds for another uprising.
First Post
2 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
British, German, and French foreign ministers to meet Iranian counterpart, raising diplomatic threat to Israel
The meeting is set to take place in Geneva on Friday, although an official confirmation from Iran is pending. If the meeting takes place, it could be a major challenge to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after he launched attacks against Iran last week read more Iranian flags fly as fire and smoke from an Israeli attack on Sharan Oil depot rise, following Israeli strikes on Iran, in Tehran, Iran. Reuters Foreign ministers of the UK, Germany and France are mulling a meeting with their Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, in what is seen as a diplomatic breakthrough as tensions escalate in West Asia. The meeting is set to take place in Geneva on Friday, although an official confirmation from Iran is pending. If the meeting takes place, it could be a major challenge to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu after he launched attacks against Iran last week. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Refresh for updates.
