When does hurricane season start? Could Tennessee see another storm like Helene in 2025? See the outlook
It's nearly hurricane season once again.
Florida and the Caribbean are often battered with hurricanes, tropical storms and tropical depressions. It's much rarer, but not impossible, that named storms continue inward to impact Tennessee.
Last September, Hurricane Helene ravaged East Tennessee. The storm caused record-breaking floods, unimaginable infrastructure damage and the loss of 18 lives in the Volunteer State alone.
Are storms like Helene becoming the new normal in Tennessee? What kind of storms will the 2025 hurricane season bring?
Here's what to know.
Hurricane season in the Atlantic Ocean runs from June 1 through November 30, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Ahead of the official start of the season, the National Hurricane Center began releasing daily forecasts of hurricane activity May 15.
The 2025 hurricane season is expected to be more active than previous years, according to Colorado State University predictions.
The research team forecasts that 2025 hurricane activity will be about 125% of the average season from 1991–2020. The 2024 season was about 130% of the season average.
"So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2017,' said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University. Klotzbach is the lead author of the university's Atlantic Ocean hurricane season prediction report.
Here's what the Colorado State University research team found.
Colorado State University forecasts there could be 17 named storms in 2025, about three more than the average year.
There could be nine hurricanes in the 2025 season, according to the report. The yearly average is 7.2 hurricanes.
Of the nine hurricanes, four could be major hurricanes, according to the research. That's just above the average of 3.2.
The National Hurricane Center is expected to release its hurricane season predictions on Thursday, May 22.
There is a 21% chance for another tropical storm to reach Tennessee in 2025, according to Colorado State University research.
The probability of a tropical storm in Tennessee this season is slightly greater than the 141-year historical average of 17%, according to Klotzbach. There have been 26 tropical storms within 50 miles of the Volunteer State from 1880-2020.
Compared to other states in the southeast, the chances of tropical storms hitting The Volunteer State appear especially slim. Florida has a 92% chance of seeing a named storm in 2025 and a 35% chance of seeing a major hurricane.
Tennessee's neighbors to the south, Alabama and Georgia, have a 72% and 67% chance respectively of being hit by a named storm this season, according to Colorado State University research.
It's far-fetched to believe that tropical storms could become typical in the Volunteer State but the probability of more intense storms in the Gulf has grown, meaning its more possible storms could reach Tennessee.
"We have observed more rapid intensification near landfall in recent years, which could indicate increased possibilities of significant wind impacts farther inland," Klotzbach said. "However, it's a bit too early to jump to conclusions on that front."
Hurricane Helene formed in the Gulf of Mexico, now the Gulf of America in September 2024. The storm first made landfall in the Florida Panhandle on Sept. 26 as a Category 4 Hurricane. The hurricane battered Perry, Florida, first before continuing north.
Helene moved inland through Georgia and the Carolinas, then made its way to East Tennessee on Friday, Sept. 27. At that point, Helene was downgraded to a tropical storm.
The East Tennessee and Western North Carolina region, already saturated by days of rain, saw major flooding on Sept. 27.
The recovery process from those floods is still not over in East Tennessee.
Bertha? Sebastien? Who chooses these names?
Developing storms that reach the tropical storm classification get a name from a predetermined list developed by the National Hurricane Center and the World Meteorological Organization.
There are six lists of names for storms for each basin, which are rotated on a six-year basis. So, storms in 2020 and 2026 may bear the same names. The only time names may be removed or replaced on the list is if the storm were so deadly that it would be insensitive to reuse, according to the National Hurricane Center.
For example, the names "Helene" and "Beryl" will never be given to another storm.
Here's the 2025 list of Atlantic Ocean storm names, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Andrea
Barry
Chantal
Dexter
Erin
Fernand
Gabrielle
Humberto
Imelda
Jerry
Karen
Lorenzo
Melissa
Nestor
Olga
Pablo
Rebekah
Sebastien
Tanya
Van
Wendy
This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Hurricane season: Could Tennessee see a storm like Helene in 2025?
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