La Niña Odds Are Below 50% for Winter 25/26, NOAA Says
The North American ski season has, for most (but not all!) skiers, ended. The boots, the coats, and the skis have been carefully tucked away by many of their dutiful owners. Still, with every conclusion comes the promise of a new beginning, and we'd be lying if we said that we aren't already thinking about the next one.That entails parsing the movements of every skier's favorite climatic phenomenon: the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, whose three varying phases can skew where the snow piles up the deepest. So, what does the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have to say about the ENSO's current status?Given the time of year, it's a bit uncertain. However, according to NOAA's latest ENSO diagnostic discussion, there is 'a 46% chance of ENSO-neutral and a 41% chance of La Niña during November 2025 - January 2026 (chances of El Niño are under 15%).'Want to keep up with the best stories and photos in skiing? Subscribe to the new Powder To The People newsletter for weekly updates.
So, as it stands, an upcoming La Niña is kind of likely—the appearance of an El Niño much less so.This summer, NOAA has a higher degree of confidence that ENSO-neutral will stick around, with the odds pinned at 74%. The release of NOAA's next ENSO discussion is scheduled for June 12. If all that was Greek to you, here's a quick primer.The ENSO's cool phase, La Niña, tends to, on average, produce cooler and wetter weather in the northwestern reaches of the U.S. (read: more pow). The warm phase, El Niño, does approximately the opposite, delivering wetter, more skier-friendly weather down south, on average. Finally, ENSO-neutral, which occurs when neither a La Niña or El Niño is in effect, doesn't tip the scales in either direction. This handy map from NOAA depicts snowfall distributions across every La Niña winter since 1959, up to and including 2024, compared to an average gathered between 1991 and 2020.
There are a few caveats. The ENSO's signals, while helpful in guessing what a given winter may look like in advance, don't guarantee weather. Instead, you can think of them like loaded dice, tweaking the powder day odds. Also, it's May—if you wanted an exact look at when or where you could score fresh snow seven months from now, you'd need a time machine.La Niña Odds Are Below 50% for Winter 25/26, NOAA Says first appeared on Powder on May 29, 2025
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
4 hours ago
- Yahoo
Three Confirmed Dead In North Dakota Derecho-Spawned Tornadoes
A derecho passed over the entirety of North Dakota on Friday night. Stretching more than 400 miles from Montana to Minnesota, the thunderstorm complex produced multiple tornadoes and wreaked havoc across the state. With devastation covering the vast distance of the state, reports were only beginning to emerge on Saturday morning. The Cass County Sheriff's Department confirmed that three people had died as a result of tornadoes in Enderlin, a rural community southwest of Fargo, ND. Overnight, NOAA received preliminary reports of tornadoes in Barnes, Ransom, Stutsman, and Cass counties. (MORE: What is a Derecho?) Christopher Muller, Director of Emergency Management in Beltrami County, Minnesota, reported, 'many roofs off buildings everywhere around Bemidji, vehicles flipped, windows blown in at the regional medical center' and possibly thousands of trees down in the area roughly 130 miles northwest of Fargo. Wind gusts as high as 106 miles per hour were reported in Bemidji. Digital Meteorologist Jonathan Belles notes that derechos are expected in the area this time of year. 'We're deep into derecho season now, which runs from May through July or August,' he says. 'These storm systems move the heat of the summer and get a little extra push from the jet stream near the Canadian border. While Friday night's top wind gust of 106 mph was on the high side of what we typically see, it isn't unheard of. They're most common from the Upper Midwest to the Ohio Valley, but can occur just about anywhere east of the Rockies.' As a result of those high winds and tornadoes, more than 23,000 customers are currently without power in North Dakota. The National Weather Service will be sending out damage assessment crews to survey the areas hit by high winds and tornadoes this weekend.
Yahoo
8 hours ago
- Yahoo
Gray whale numbers decline to lowest since early 1970s, according to new data
The number of Pacific gray whales decreased significantly during the most recent count to the lowest numbers since the 1970s, while the number of whale calves also hit its lowest numbers on record. Gray whales, known for their migrations along the Oregon Coast in winter and spring, dropped to an estimated 12,900 adults and 85 calves in the latest data taken by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It was a sharp decline from a year ago, when the number of gray whales was estimated at 19,260 for 2023-2024, and calf numbers were estimated at 221 in 2024 and 412 in 2023. "Our main concern and question is why the population does not appear to be demonstrating the same resilience as it has in rebounding from previous downturns," Sarah Mesnick, ecologist and science liaison with NOAA, said. The new data reversed hope from scientists that gray whales were rebounding after they endured an 'unusual mortality event' from 2019 to 2023 and worried instead that whales may be struggling to keep up with a changing environment. "The environment may now be changing at a pace or in ways that is testing the time-honored ability of the population to rapidly rebound while it adjusts to a new ecological regime,' said David Weller, director of the marine mammal turtle division at the NOAA Science Center and an authority on gray whales. Researchers in Mexico reported numerous dead gray whales early in 2025 in and around coastal lagoons as well as few gray whale calves. This suggests that many female whales may not be finding enough food in the Arctic to reproduce. So far in 2025, 47 gray whales have stranded dead on the West Coast, up from 31 in 2024 and 44 in 2023, the last year of the UME. While some of the stranded whales appeared skinny or emaciated, others did not. 'The lead scientists point out that this new estimate stands out because it reflects an extended downward trend in a population that has demonstrated short-term resilience in the past,' Mesnick said. 'The populations have previously rebounded quickly from downturns, including earlier previous UMEs, and we are going to continue to monitor the population.' According to NOAA and under the Marine Mammal Protection Act, UME "involves a significant die-off of any marine mammal population; and demands immediate response." Causes of UME are attributed to infectious disease, biotoxins, ecological factors, human interactions and other undetermined factors. The gray whale population was large, at about 27,430 between 2015-2016. In the following years, a decline started from 2019-2023 to below 15,000 that was considered as unusual mortality event. It appeared that whales might by rebounding after 2023, but the latest numbers dispute that notion. Scientists attributed the die-off to localized ecosystem changes that affected the Subarctic and Arctic feeding grounds. The changes in these areas contributed to malnutrition, reduced birth rates and increased mortality. The migration routes, specifically the California Current ecosystem and the Arctic ecosystem, have experienced significant changes in recent decades as well, officials said. The current research shows a connection between gray whale numbers and changes in sea ice in the Arctic, where most gray whales feed during the summer, NOAA concluded. 'They're migrating from Mexican reproductive ground, or nursery grounds, to foraging grounds in the Arctic,' Mesnick said. 'It's one of the longest migrations on the planet.' Ecosystem changes in the Arctic feeding areas the whales depend on to put on weight and maintain fitness are likely the root cause, Weller said. Decline in calf numbers has been linked to sea ice cover in the Bering and Chukchi seas. In May 2024, a juvenile gray whale washed ashore on a beach in Bandon along the southern Oregon Coast. In 2023, four reported gray whales washed ashore Oregon beaches, one being a calf. Mariah Johnston is an outdoors journalism intern at the Statesman Journal. Reach her at mjohnston@ This article originally appeared on Salem Statesman Journal: Gray whales decline to lowest numbers since 1970s
USA Today
8 hours ago
- USA Today
The 2025 hurricane season is off to a perplexing start
The eastern Pacific Ocean has seen a historic run of activity as the Atlantic remains dormant. Forecasters point to perplexing planetary phenomenon. Hurricane Erick formed June 18 in the eastern Pacific Ocean, becoming the fifth named storm of the eastern Pacific season to date – a flurry of activity in sharp contrast with the tepid start to hurricane season in the Atlantic. By some counts, the Eastern Pacific has been on a historic run, recording five named storms before the third week of June for the first time on record, said WPLG-TV 10 meteorologist Michael Lowry via his email newsletter June 17. See photo gallery: Photos show impact of Hurricane Erick after landfall along Mexico Pacific coast The activity was due in part to a large-scale climate pattern known as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, which is an eastward-moving disturbance of clouds, rainfall, winds, and pressure. It traverses the planet in the tropics and returns to its initial starting point in 30 to 60 days, according to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. It, along with other obscure patterns such as Rossby and Kelvin waves, influence weather, including hurricane formation, around the globe. What does the fast start in the Pacific mean for the Atlantic hurricane season? Although some storms can cross over Central America from one ocean to the other, there isn't really an overall connection in activity, AccuWeather hurricane expert Alex Da Silva told USA TODAY. Colorado State University meteorologist Phil Klotzbach agreed, noting in an email to USA TODAY that "there's not a lot that we can say tying in the fast start to the eastern North Pacific to what the season may portend for the Atlantic. "The relationship between Atlantic hurricane activity and eastern North Pacific hurricane activity just off of the west coast of Mexico (as we've seen this year), is fairly weak," he said. Thus, the early activity in the Pacific isn't likely a harbinger of storms to come in the Atlantic. DaSilva said the Madden-Julian Oscillation pulse made it to the eastern Pacific but fell apart before reaching the Atlantic. What led to all the storms in the eastern Pacific so far this season? The pulse of storminess that moves eastward around the globe's tropical regions – the Madden-Julian Oscillation – "helped to kick off a flurry of storm activity in the eastern Pacific," Lowry said. Specifically, the MJO's enhanced phase, which is characterized by increased rainfall and rising air, creates an environment more conducive for hurricane development, while the suppressed phase has the opposite effect. Atlantic remains quiet ‒ for now While the eastern Pacific is running about a month ahead of schedule with all of its activity, the Atlantic is on track for a typical to even slow start, Lowry said. "Models are muted on any development chances for the basin into at least the middle part of next week." The next chance of widespread storminess returning to the tropical Atlantic won't be until around the first week of July. Other planetary phenomena at play A Kelvin wave, formally known as a convectively coupled Kelvin wave, is thought to have interacted with a Rossby wave over the Americas, contributing to limited tropical development in the Atlantic basin, but creating a favorable pattern that helped spawn the formation of both Dalila and Erick to the south of Mexico, according to the Climate Prediction Center. Kelvin waves, which can extend up to 4,000 miles in length and be thousands of miles wide, move along the equator in the same direction as the Madden-Julian, only faster, said Quinton Lawton, a post-doctoral fellow at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado. Perturbations inside the waves can encourage thunderstorms and rainfall. Scientists have only recently begun to understand more about how planetary phenomena work together to spawn or suppress tropical storms and hurricanes. 'It turns out that these waves actually end up being really important for tropical cyclones,' Lawton said. Kelvin waves and Rossby waves originate from energy in the atmosphere and then move along the equator. As the Madden-Julian circumnavigates the globe, its interaction with these atmospheric waves can encourage storm formation.
