Latest news with #ElNiño-SouthernOscillation
Yahoo
11-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
Updated 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast maintains above-average predictions fueled by warm ocean temps
FORT COLLINS, Colo. – Leading hurricane researchers are maintaining their forecast for an above-average 2025 Atlantic hurricane season. Colorado State University (CSU) said Wednesday that above-average sea-surface temperatures in the subtropical eastern Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea were a primary factor in their prediction of nine total hurricanes this year. 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season Brings Elevated Risk Of Major Landfalls, Experts Predict According to researchers, when the waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic are warmer than average in the late spring, they tend to force a weaker subtropical high-pressure system and weaker associated winds blowing across the tropical Atlantic. "These conditions are anticipated to lead to a continuation of above-average water temperatures across most of the tropical Atlantic for the peak of the 2025 hurricane season," CSU noted in its latest hurricane season outlook. A warm Atlantic favors an above-average season, since a hurricane's fuel source is warm ocean water. Additionally, a warm Atlantic leads to lower atmospheric pressure and a more unstable atmosphere. Both conditions favor hurricane formation. Forecasters noted that current La Niña conditions are likely to transition to ENSO-neutral conditions in the next couple of months. However, there remains considerable uncertainty as to what phase of ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation) will dominate this summer and fall. While the odds of El Niño this hurricane season are low, they are still considerably higher than they were for last year's hurricane season. The CSU team is predicting 17 named storms during the Atlantic hurricane season, which began on June 1 and runs through Nov. 30. Of those 17 storms, researchers forecast nine to become hurricanes and four to reach major hurricane strength (Category 3 or higher), with sustained winds of at least 111 mph. How To Prepare For Hurricane Season CSU said they also take into account analog years from the historical record. "So far, the 2025 hurricane season is exhibiting characteristics similar to 1996, 1999, 2008, 2011 and 2021," said Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist in the Department of Atmospheric Science at CSU. Klotzbach notes that analog seasons had anywhere from above-average to hyperactive Atlantic hurricane activity. "While the average of our analog seasons had above-average levels of activity, the relatively large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the uncertainty associated with this outlook," he said. The team predicts that 2025 hurricane activity will be about 125% of the average season from 1991-2020. By comparison, 2024's hurricane activity was about 130% of the average season. The most significant hurricanes of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season were hurricanes Helene and Milton, which combined to cause over 250 fatalities and more than $120 billion in damage in the southeastern U.s. HURRICANE CATEGORIES EXPLAINED: Category 1 | Category 2 | Category 3 | Category 4 | Category 5Original article source: Updated 2025 Atlantic hurricane season forecast maintains above-average predictions fueled by warm ocean temps
Newsweek
11-06-2025
- Climate
- Newsweek
Americans Warned To Prepare as New Hurricane Forecast Issued
Based on facts, either observed and verified firsthand by the reporter, or reported and verified from knowledgeable sources. Newsweek AI is in beta. Translations may contain inaccuracies—please refer to the original content. A new hurricane forecast from Colorado State University (CSU) stresses the need for Americans to prepare for this year's hurricane season, as the U.S. coastline has an above-average chance of seeing at least one major hurricane make landfall this year. The updated forecast was issued nearly two weeks after the Atlantic hurricane season began on June 1 and mirrors the university's first forecast of the year issued in April. Newsweek reached out to CSU by email for comment. Why It Matters Last year, the number of hurricanes that formed during the Atlantic hurricane season was above average. There were 18 named storms, with 11 hurricanes and five major hurricanes. A major hurricane occurs when hurricanes are classified as Category 3 or higher. This year's Atlantic hurricane season started on June 1. So far, no tropical storms or hurricanes have formed in the Atlantic basin. A hurricane is seen from space. A hurricane is seen from space. buradaki/Getty What To Know Earlier this spring, CSU meteorologists issued their first Atlantic hurricane forecast of the year. At that time, they were anticipating 17 named storms, with nine strengthening into hurricanes and four becoming major hurricanes. The forecast falls within the ranges shared by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecast in May. The updated forecast from CSU revealed there is a 51 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall along the U.S. coastline this season. The chances drop to 26 percent for the East Coast, including the Florida peninsula, and 33 percent for the Gulf Coast, including the Florida panhandle. "The probability of U.S. and Caribbean major hurricane landfall is estimated to be above its long-period average," the forecast said. The chance of a higher-than-average hurricane season was credited to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific and slightly warmer sea surface temperatures than is normal in the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. "A warmer-than-normal Atlantic combined with ENSO neutral conditions typically favors an active Atlantic hurricane season via dynamic and thermodynamic conditions that are conducive for developing hurricanes," the forecast said. The Eastern Pacific season, which began on May 15, has produced three named storms, including one hurricane. What People Are Saying CSU's updated forecast: "Coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. Thorough preparations should be made for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted." National Hurricane Center (NHC) in a forecast for the Atlantic: "For the North Sea and the Gulf of America: Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days." What Happens Next Should a disturbance form in the Atlantic, the NHC will begin to issue updates about its path and strength.
9 News
07-06-2025
- Climate
- 9 News
Area five times bigger than Australia walloped by severe heatwave
Your web browser is no longer supported. To improve your experience update it here The World Meteorological Organisation's (WMO) State of the Climate in the South-West Pacific report released earlier this week found 2024 was the hottest year on record for the region, up 0.48 degrees on the average for the last three decades. It also found that almost 40 million square kilometres of ocean – an area about five times the size of Australia – were subjected to heatwaves for much of the first half of the year. Most of the South-West Pacific was subjected to intense marine heatwaves last year. (World Meteorological Organisation) "Most of the ocean area of the South-West Pacific region was affected by marine heatwaves of strong, severe or extreme intensity during... particularly the equatorial region of the Maritime Continent and the western Pacific," the report states. "During the months of January, April, May and June 2024, nearly 40,000,000km2 of the region's ocean was impacted by marine heatwaves." Pointing to heatwaves in Western Australia, where temperatures got to within touching distance of 50 degrees last February, and floods across much of the country, as well as severe weather in other nations in the region, the WMO said the changing climate is posing a "serious risk" to public health, lives and livelihoods. "Unprecedented ocean warming, sea level rise, and extreme weather are endangering lives, ecosystems, and economies across the region – especially in coastal and island communities," it said. Lake MacLeod near the WA coastal town of Carnarvon, which last year hit 49.9 degrees. (Peter De Kruijff) "2024 saw record sea-surface temperatures and near-record ocean heat content, with marine heatwaves affecting over 10 per cent of the global ocean. "On land, extreme heat, intense rainfall, and a historic cyclone season caused devastating impacts." Speaking ahead of today's World Oceans Day, Monash University climate expert Associate Professor Shayne McGregor said Australia is particularly vulnerable to changes in the ocean. "Australia is exposed to climate variability that is largely ocean-driven," he said. "These modes of climate variability, like the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, influence our rainfall, heatwaves and fire risk. "Recent ocean changes, which include rising sea levels, increasing occurrence of marine heatwaves and changes to ocean currents, have already had noticeable impacts. "These changes aren't just environmental; they're economic and personal. "They affect water security, food production, insurance costs, and even how we plan our energy infrastructure." Weather national Australia climate change Pacific Weather News World CONTACT US Property News: The last inner Sydney suburbs where houses cost under $2m.
UPI
04-06-2025
- Climate
- UPI
La Nina's role explained in Atlantic hurricane season
1 of 3 | Large parts of New Orleans were flooded weeks after several levees failed in the wake of Hurricane Katrina in September 2005. That hurricane occurred around the onset of La Niña conditions. File Photo by Bob McMillan/FEMA Photo for UPI | License Photo Most people associate La Niña with warmer winters or drought in the southern United States, but its influence stretches far beyond the winter months. When La Niña sets in during hurricane season, it has the potential to dramatically increase both the number and strength of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and is defined by lower-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. Although the phenomenon originates far from the Atlantic Ocean, it disrupts global weather patterns in a way that suppresses wind shear across much of the tropical Atlantic. This matters because vertical wind shear -- the change in wind speed or direction with height - tends to prevent tropical systems from organizing. When shear is reduced, clusters of showers and thunderstorms are more likely to organize, strengthen and turn into tropical storms and hurricanes. "La Niña increases the number of hurricanes that develop and allows stronger hurricanes to form," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. "It also raises the chances for the continental U.S. and the Caribbean Islands to experience a hurricane." During La Niña years, meteorologists often observe more named storms, more major hurricanes and higher accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), a measure of the strength and duration of storms over time. The odds of U.S. landfalls also increase, particularly for the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Two of the most active hurricane seasons in modern history occurred around the onset of La Niña conditions: 2005 and 2020. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast, and the official storm naming list was exhausted for the first time, prompting the use of Greek letters. In 2020, the Atlantic basin experienced a record-breaking 11 storms that made direct landfall on U.S. soil, including Hurricane Laura. As for 2025, La Niña is not expected during the early part of the hurricane season. However, forecasters are watching for signs that it could emerge later in the year. "If we trend toward La Niña late in the hurricane season, we could see an active end to the season, similar to what we saw last year," DaSilva said. Complicating matters is the presence of unusually warm water in the Atlantic Ocean, which increases the risk of rapid intensification -- a dangerous trend in which storms gain strength quickly just before landfall. One of the biggest factors for tropical development in 2025 is the abundance of warm water available to fuel storms. "The water temperatures across most of the Atlantic are above average for this time of the year," DaSilva said. "They're not quite as warm as what we saw last year and in 2023, but they're still well, well above average." If La Niña arrives in the second half of the season and combines with this ocean heat, the Atlantic could be primed for a particularly volatile stretch during the peak hurricane months of September through November. La Niña doesn't guarantee an above-average season, but it dramatically shifts the odds in that direction. And for coastal communities, that makes understanding its influence more important than ever.
Yahoo
04-06-2025
- Climate
- Yahoo
La Niña's role in Atlantic hurricane season
Most people associate La Niña with warmer winters or drought in the southern United States, but its influence stretches far beyond the winter months. When La Niña sets in during hurricane season, it has the potential to dramatically increase both the number and strength of tropical storms and hurricanes in the Atlantic basin. La Niña is part of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle and is defined by lower-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. Although the phenomenon originates far from the Atlantic Ocean, it disrupts global weather patterns in a way that suppresses wind shear across much of the tropical Atlantic. This matters because vertical wind shear - the change in wind speed or direction with height - tends to prevent tropical systems from organizing. When shear is reduced, clusters of showers and thunderstorms are more likely to organize, strengthen and turn into tropical storms and hurricanes. "La Niña increases the number of hurricanes that develop and allows stronger hurricanes to form," said AccuWeather Lead Hurricane Expert Alex DaSilva. "It also raises the chances for the continental U.S. and the Caribbean Islands to experience a hurricane." During La Niña years, meteorologists often observe more named storms, more major hurricanes and higher accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), a measure of the strength and duration of storms over time. The odds of U.S. landfalls also increase, particularly for the Gulf Coast and Southeast. Two of the most active hurricane seasons in modern history occurred around the onset of La Niña conditions: 2005 and 2020. In 2005, Hurricane Katrina devastated the Gulf Coast, and the official storm naming list was exhausted for the first time, prompting the use of Greek letters. In 2020, the Atlantic basin experienced a record-breaking 11 storms that made direct landfall on U.S. soil, including Hurricane Laura. As for 2025, La Niña is not expected during the early part of the hurricane season. However, forecasters are watching for signs that it could emerge later in the year. "If we trend toward La Niña late in the hurricane season, we could see an active end to the season, similar to what we saw last year," DaSilva said. Complicating matters is the presence of unusually warm water in the Atlantic Ocean, which increases the risk of rapid intensification - a dangerous trend where storms gain strength quickly just before landfall. One of the biggest factors for tropical development in 2025 is the abundance of warm water available to fuel storms. "The water temperatures across most of the Atlantic are above average for this time of the year," DaSilva said. "They're not quite as warm as what we saw last year and in 2023, but they're still well, well above average." If La Niña arrives in the second half of the season and combines with this ocean heat, the Atlantic could be primed for a particularly volatile stretch during the peak hurricane months of September through November. La Niña doesn't guarantee an above-average season, but it dramatically shifts the odds in that direction. And for coastal communities, that makes understanding its influence more important than ever.
