Here's how Iran could retaliate after US strikes on its nuclear program
Iran has spent decades building multi-tiered military capabilities at home and across the region that were at least partly aimed at deterring the United States from attacking it. By entering Israel's war, the US may have removed the last rationale for holding them in reserve.
Thet could mean a wave of attacks on US forces in the Middle East , an attempt to close a key bottleneck for global oil supplies or a dash to develop a nuclear weapon with what remains of Iran's disputed program after American strikes on three key sites.
A decision to retaliate against the US and its regional allies would give Iran a far larger target bank and one that is much closer than Israel, allowing it to potentially use its missiles and drones to greater effect. The US and Israel have far superior capabilities, but those haven't always proven decisive in America's recent history of military interventions in the region.
Ever since Israel started the war with a suprise bombardment of Iran's military and nuclear sites on June 13, Iranian officials from the supreme leader on down have warned the US to stay out, saying it would have dire consequences for the entire region.
It should soon be clear whether those were empty threats or a grim forecast.
Here's a look at what Iran's next move might be.
The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, through which some 20 percent of all oil traded globally passes, and at its narrowest point it is just 33 kilometers (21 miles) wide. Any disruption there could send oil prices soaring worldwide and hit American pocketbooks.
Iran boasts a fleet of fast-attack boats and thousands of naval mines that could potentially make the strait impassable, at least for a time. It could also fire missiles from its long Persian Gulf shore, as its allies, Yemen's Houthi rebels, have done in the Red Sea.
The US, with its 5th Fleet stationed in nearby Bahrain, has long pledged to uphold freedom of navigation in the strait and would respond with far superior forces. But even a relatively brief firefight could paralyze shipping traffic and spook investors, causing oil prices to spike and generating international pressure for a ceasefire.
The US has tens of thousands of troops stationed in the region, including at permanent bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Arab Gulf countries just across the Persian Gulf from Iran — and much closer than Israel.
Those bases boast the same kinds of sophisticated air defenses as Israel, but would have much less warning time before waves of missiles or swarms of armed drones. And even Israel, which is several hundred kilometers (miles) further away, has been unable to stop all of the incoming fire .
Iran could also choose to attack key oil and gas facilities in those countries with the goal of exacting a higher price for US involvement in the war. A drone attack on two major oil sites in Saudi Arabia in 2019 — claimed by the Houthis but widely blamed on Iran — briefly cut the kingdom's oil production in half .
Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance — a network of militant groups across the Middle East, is a shadow of what it was before the war ignited by Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel out of the Gaza Strip — but it still has some formidable capabilities.
Israel's 20-month war in Gaza has severely diminished the Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad groups, and Israel mauled Lebanon's Hezbollah last fall, killing most of its top leadership and devastating much of southern Lebanon, making its involvement unlikely.
But Iran could still call on the Houthis, who had threatened to resume their attacks in the Red Sea if the US entered the war, and allied militias in Iraq. Both have drone and missile capabilities that would allow them to target the United States and its allies.
Iran could also seek to respond through militant attacks further afield, as it is widely accused of doing in the 1990s with an attack on a Jewish community center in Argentina that was blamed on Iran and Hezbollah .
It could be days or weeks before the full impact of the US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites is known.
But experts have long warned that even joint US and Israeli strikes would only delay Iran's ability to develop a weapon, not eliminate it. That's because Iran has dispersed its program across the country to several sites, including hardened, underground facilities.
Iran would likely struggle to repair or reconstitute its nuclear program while Israeli and US warplanes are circling overhead. But it could still decide to fully end its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and abandon the the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty.
North Korea announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003 and tested a nuclear weapon three years later, but it had the freedom to develop its program without punishing airstrikes.
Iran insists its program is peaceful, though it is the only non-nuclear-armed state to enrich uranium up to 60 percent, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90 percent. US intelligence agencies and the IAEA assess Iran hasn't had an organized military nuclear program since 2003.
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Korea Herald
4 hours ago
- Korea Herald
Seoul seeks to minimize fallout from US strike on Iran
The presidential office ordered ministries to prioritize the protection of South Korean nationals and to minimize potential security and economic fallout from the US military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities. South Korean National Security Adviser Wi Sung-lac convened an emergency meeting at noon Sunday, hours after the US military bombed three nuclear facilities in Iran, presidential spokesperson Kang Yu-jung said during a televised briefing. 'At today's meeting, discussions focused on the impact of the US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities — which follows the Israel-Iran conflict — on our security and economy, while also accurately assessing the current situation,' Kang said. '(National Security Office) Director Wi Sung-rak emphasized that, above all, it is important to protect the lives and safety of our nationals and to ensure the stable continuity of daily life," he added. According to Kang, Wi also 'called on relevant ministries to maintain close communication and cooperation to minimize the impact that the recent series of developments in the Middle East may have on the security and economic situation of the Korean Peninsula." Kang underscored that 'the discussions spearheaded by the presidential office will continue, closely monitoring developments related to the current situation and taking into account potential changes in circumstances.' The emergency meeting was also attended by first deputy National Security Adviser Kim Hyun-jong, second deputy adviser Lim Woong-soon, and third deputy adviser Oh Hyun-joo, as well as Senior Presidential Secretary for Economic Growth Ha Joon-kyung, among others. Separately, South Korea's Ministry of Trade, Industry and Energy also convened an emergency meeting Sunday to assess the impact of the US airstrike on domestic energy, trade, and supply chains. Second Vice Minister of Trade, Industry and Energy Choe Nam-ho was set to preside over a comprehensive situation assessment meeting at around 3 p.m. in Seoul. The meeting was held amid growing concerns over possible disruptions to crude oil and liquefied natural gas or LNG imports, as well as the operational status of tankers navigating waters near the Strait of Hormuz — a vital chokepoint for both South Korean and global energy shipments. According to a database provided by the Korea Trade-Investment Promotion Agency, the Strait of Hormuz accounts for around 35 percent of the world's crude oil shipments and 33 percent of global LNG shipments. Notably, 99 percent of Middle East-produced crude oil bound for South Korea passes through this strait, according to the KOTRA. As of Saturday, a total of 56 South Korean nationals and their Iranian family members had fled Iran and entered Turkmenistan with the assistance of the Foreign Ministry in Seoul and South Korean embassies in Tehran and Ashgabat. They will either return to South Korea or relocate to a third country, according to the Foreign Ministry. Among them were 52 South Koreans and 4 Iranians. As of June 13, when the airstrike exchange began with Israel's surprise attack on Iran, the Foreign Ministry said that around 110 South Korean nationals were staying in Iran. Tensions escalated as US President Trump announced early Sunday that the United States had struck three Iranian nuclear sites — in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan — joining Israel's airstrikes against Iran on the 10th day of the Israel-Iran conflict. In response to the US strikes, the Foreign Ministry said Sunday, 'Our government hopes that tensions in the region will be alleviated rapidly and will continue to participate in international efforts toward that end.' 'Our government places importance on resolving the Iranian nuclear issue from the perspective of nuclear nonproliferation and is closely monitoring developments related to the attack on nuclear facilities in Iran this morning, Korea time,' the Foreign Ministry said in a statement.
Korea Herald
5 hours ago
- Korea Herald
Here's how Iran could retaliate after US strikes on its nuclear program
Iran has spent decades building multi-tiered military capabilities at home and across the region that were at least partly aimed at deterring the United States from attacking it. By entering Israel's war, the US may have removed the last rationale for holding them in reserve. Thet could mean a wave of attacks on US forces in the Middle East , an attempt to close a key bottleneck for global oil supplies or a dash to develop a nuclear weapon with what remains of Iran's disputed program after American strikes on three key sites. A decision to retaliate against the US and its regional allies would give Iran a far larger target bank and one that is much closer than Israel, allowing it to potentially use its missiles and drones to greater effect. The US and Israel have far superior capabilities, but those haven't always proven decisive in America's recent history of military interventions in the region. Ever since Israel started the war with a suprise bombardment of Iran's military and nuclear sites on June 13, Iranian officials from the supreme leader on down have warned the US to stay out, saying it would have dire consequences for the entire region. It should soon be clear whether those were empty threats or a grim forecast. Here's a look at what Iran's next move might be. The Strait of Hormuz is the narrow mouth of the Persian Gulf, through which some 20 percent of all oil traded globally passes, and at its narrowest point it is just 33 kilometers (21 miles) wide. Any disruption there could send oil prices soaring worldwide and hit American pocketbooks. Iran boasts a fleet of fast-attack boats and thousands of naval mines that could potentially make the strait impassable, at least for a time. It could also fire missiles from its long Persian Gulf shore, as its allies, Yemen's Houthi rebels, have done in the Red Sea. The US, with its 5th Fleet stationed in nearby Bahrain, has long pledged to uphold freedom of navigation in the strait and would respond with far superior forces. But even a relatively brief firefight could paralyze shipping traffic and spook investors, causing oil prices to spike and generating international pressure for a ceasefire. The US has tens of thousands of troops stationed in the region, including at permanent bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Arab Gulf countries just across the Persian Gulf from Iran — and much closer than Israel. Those bases boast the same kinds of sophisticated air defenses as Israel, but would have much less warning time before waves of missiles or swarms of armed drones. And even Israel, which is several hundred kilometers (miles) further away, has been unable to stop all of the incoming fire . Iran could also choose to attack key oil and gas facilities in those countries with the goal of exacting a higher price for US involvement in the war. A drone attack on two major oil sites in Saudi Arabia in 2019 — claimed by the Houthis but widely blamed on Iran — briefly cut the kingdom's oil production in half . Iran's so-called Axis of Resistance — a network of militant groups across the Middle East, is a shadow of what it was before the war ignited by Hamas' Oct. 7, 2023, attack on Israel out of the Gaza Strip — but it still has some formidable capabilities. Israel's 20-month war in Gaza has severely diminished the Palestinian Hamas and Islamic Jihad groups, and Israel mauled Lebanon's Hezbollah last fall, killing most of its top leadership and devastating much of southern Lebanon, making its involvement unlikely. But Iran could still call on the Houthis, who had threatened to resume their attacks in the Red Sea if the US entered the war, and allied militias in Iraq. Both have drone and missile capabilities that would allow them to target the United States and its allies. Iran could also seek to respond through militant attacks further afield, as it is widely accused of doing in the 1990s with an attack on a Jewish community center in Argentina that was blamed on Iran and Hezbollah . It could be days or weeks before the full impact of the US strikes on Iran's nuclear sites is known. But experts have long warned that even joint US and Israeli strikes would only delay Iran's ability to develop a weapon, not eliminate it. That's because Iran has dispersed its program across the country to several sites, including hardened, underground facilities. Iran would likely struggle to repair or reconstitute its nuclear program while Israeli and US warplanes are circling overhead. But it could still decide to fully end its cooperation with the International Atomic Energy Agency and abandon the the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty. North Korea announced its withdrawal from the treaty in 2003 and tested a nuclear weapon three years later, but it had the freedom to develop its program without punishing airstrikes. Iran insists its program is peaceful, though it is the only non-nuclear-armed state to enrich uranium up to 60 percent, a short, technical step away from weapons-grade levels of 90 percent. US intelligence agencies and the IAEA assess Iran hasn't had an organized military nuclear program since 2003.
Korea Herald
6 hours ago
- Korea Herald
Mahmoud Khalil vows to continue protesting Israel
NEWARK, New Jersey (AP) — A Palestinian activist who was detained for more than three months pushed his infant son's stroller with one hand and cheered as he was welcomed home Saturday by supporters including US Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Mahmoud Khalil greeted friends and spoke briefly to reporters at New Jersey's Newark International Airport a day after leaving a federal immigration facility in Louisiana. A former Columbia University graduate student and symbol of President Donald Trump 's clampdown on campus protests, he vowed to continue protesting Israel and the war in Gaza. "The US government is funding this genocide, and Columbia University is investing in this genocide," he said. "This is why I will continue to protest with every one of you. Not only if they threaten me with detention. Even if they would kill me, I would still speak up for Palestine." Joining Khalil at the airport, Ocasio-Cortez said his detention violated the First Amendment and was "an affront to every American." "He has been accused, baselessly, of horrific allegations simply because the Trump administration and our overall establishment disagrees with his political speech," she said. "The Trump administration knows that they are waging a losing legal battle," Ocasio-Cortez added. "They are violating the law, and they know that they are violating the law." Khalil, a 30-year-old legal resident whose wife gave birth during his 104 days of detention, said he also will speak up for the immigrants he left behind in the detention center. "Whether you are a citizen, an immigrant, anyone in this land, you're not illegal. That doesn't make you less of a human," he said. Khalil was not accused of breaking any laws during the protests at Columbia. However the administration has said noncitizens who participate in such demonstrations should be expelled from the country for expressing views it considers to be antisemitic and "pro-Hamas," referring to the Palestinian militant group that attacked Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Khalil was released after US District Judge Michael Farbiarz said it would be "highly, highly unusual" for the government to continue detaining a legal resident who was unlikely to flee and had not been accused of any violence. The government filed notice Friday evening that it was appealing Khalil's release.
