Bernstein raises its price target on this stock with a 'history of momentum'

Bernstein is doubling down on its bullish outlook on Boeing . Analyst Douglas Harned maintained his outperform rating on Boeing shares and assigned a fresh price target of $249, up from $218. His new target suggests roughly 21% upside for the stock, which is up 16% this year. Harned sees a strong growth runway for Boeing and said its defense business could return to being a powerful cash generator. He also highlighted recent developments such as Boeing's restart of deliveries to China, its deal with Qatar Airways announced last week to provide up to 210 widebody jets and easing tariff concerns. "Positive events support the stock's upward momentum," the analyst wrote in a Monday note to clients. "Last week, we saw large new widebody orders, a restart of deliveries to China, and support for defense programs, raising our confidence in Boeing's growth path. There is still more upside potential." "None of this is without risk, given Boeing's many missteps over the last decade. But, as positive elements appear to line up, we believe there is more risk in not owning a stock with a history of momentum," Harned added. To be sure, the analyst still has concerns about seemingly light May 737 deliveries so far and timing for certification on Boeing's 737 Max 7 and Max 10 aircrafts. Harned's rating comes nearly a month after he upgraded Boeing to outperform from market perform. The analyst had cited Boeing's progress on 737 Max and 787 production ramps, improvement in defense performance, and strong cash position that outweighed concerns of tariff impacts as his reasoning for the upgrade. Analysts polled by LSEG have an average price target on Boeing shares that indicate just 1% potential upside. Twenty of the 29 covering the stock have a strong buy or buy rating.

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Le Bourget - A Subdued But Substantial Paris Air Show

Crowds at the 55th edition of the International Paris Air Show at Le Bourget, on June 16, 2025. ... More (Photo by Alain JOCARD / AFP) (Photo by ALAIN JOCARD/AFP via Getty Images) The Paris Air Show is the largest air show in the world as measured by attendees or exhibitors. It has been held every two years (on odd numbered years) since 1949. The first four days are devoted to industry participants from both commercial and defense sectors representing OEM's and companies down through the supply chain and support services. Originated in 1908 as an offshoot of the Paris Motor Show, it was held at the Grand Palais in Paris until 1953 with flying demonstrations at Paris Orly airport. With the advent of commercial aviation growing to the mass market, the Show was moved to Le Bourget field, the landing site of Lindbergh's historic solo transatlantic crossing in May 1927, where he was greeted by a crowd of over one hundred thousand onlookers. The first "Salon du Locomotion Arienne" held in Paris's Grand Palais, 1909. Bleriot and other ... More monoplanes are seen in the foreground. In years past, Air Shows provided a measuring stick for the two major commercial aircraft OEM's, Boeing and Airbus, to keep score in their competition with each other. This was especially true in the 90's and early 00's as Airbus was gradually accumulating market share and eventually overtaking Boeing in aircraft sales and production. Companies would hold orders that had already been inked in previous months in order to boost their count for splashy headlines during the week of the Show. The Show also provided a world stage for the flight demonstration of a new aircraft model or defense system. In 2025, many of those aspects have changed or receded amidst a backdrop of war, recent tragedy and technological plateau. The ongoing hostilities in Ukraine have placed the spotlight on lightweight, agile offensive systems as opposed to the 'big iron' of new expensive weaponry. The tragic loss of an Air India Boeing 787 days before the Show led to the decision for senior Boeing executives to not attend and for the company to keep a low profile. The duopoly of the Airbus A320 and Boeing 737 series continues to build backlog without expectation of a new technology aircraft for at least a decade. A similar development was apparent in the military realm where legacy platforms which were designed years or decades earlier were being adapted to new missions, outfitted with new sensor suites, or positioned as flying 'command posts' for unmanned weapons. Nevertheless, dynamism was apparent in other sectors including Advanced Air Mobility (AAM), space systems and Maintenance Repair and Overhaul (MRO). MRO has continued to be a focus due to the continued demand driven by commercial aircraft that will need to be flown years longer on average, due to the production shortfalls resulting from the pandemic and various Boeing delays. JetZero ("A New Entrant to the Commercial Aerospace Duopoly?" - March 28, 2025) detailed its development plan for it's radical design aircraft that could serve as a next generation airliner or a military tanker. Sustainability, which has been a persistent focus for innovation over the past several years, was still strongly evident in pronouncements and product attributes, but the growing recognition that Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) and hydrogen powered aircraft are not near term environmental solutions reflected the recent waning support from the International Air Transport Association (IATA) and Airbus. Several geopolitical forces were also evident in the concerns of attendees. First, the US Administration's pronouncements indicating weakened support for NATO and the need for European countries to contribute more to their own defense has intensified investment in and activities of defense companies within the EU. This coupled with the Administration's increase of the US defense budget amid global tensions resulted in a much more defense focused show than in years past. The mood was amplified by the Israeli attacks on Iran that began over the weekend when many of the initial receptions and gatherings were being held. Second, the Administration's imposition of tariffs has increased focus on the resiliency of global supply chains and the ability to meet production goals in a much more complex environment. On both the commercial, as well as the military side, the ability to deliver against order books was a paramount concern due to the ongoing ramp in commercial deliveries, and the shortfalls in munitions and missiles from wars in Ukraine and the mid-East. Much as the iPhone has continued to improve capabilities on a platform that debuted eighteen years ago, the sense of the show was not on new product announcements but on enhancements to legacy platforms and proving capability to meet demand expectations in a challenging global environment.

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8 hours ago

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AppLovin: The advertising giant in the making

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Among the key products offered are the MAX mediation platform which is the instrument that allows publishers to operate several ad networks with a single integration, and thorough user acquisition tools that are specifically designed for developers to grow their user bases at the shortest time possible. Warning! GuruFocus has detected 3 Warning Sign with APP. Key Growth Drivers Machine Learning and AI-Powered Optimization The AXON platform that is powered by AppLovin's sophisticated machine learning infrastructure, which is its own product, is the genetic code of the tech advantage of the company. The proprietary AI engine that the company uses, being at the heart of the whole process, is in charge of the incredible computational task of processing a diverse range of data to make real-time decisions on the best ad placements, user acquisition campaigns, and monetization strategies available. By examining the engagement metrics and conversion data, the system constantly improves the targeting accuracy and campaign efficiency besides getting insight from user behavior patterns. This exceptional efficiency, which allows advertisers to make more informed bids on ad inventory while publishers to generate more revenue, is based on the system's predictive capabilities. The platform's establishment to process and learn from billions of pieces of data each day creates a significant barrier for other competitors, as it is developed better with more available data. AXON is the neural network that drives the whole platform with deep learning technology, which is used to explore the user data in a way that traditional analysis tools would not be able to. That is to say, this platform is the most modern digital solution that performs the task of reinforcement learning, where the smart algorithms are given real-time feedback with optimal ad placement and bidding decisions generated automatically. This automated optimization function, which in reality results in the use of less human resources, is achieved compared to the delivering of impressive results using a set of predefined rules. Real-Time Bidding and Programmatic Infrastructure AppLovin has the technology stack including high-performance real-time bidding (RTB) infrastructure capable of processing hundreds of thousands of bid requests per second with sub-100 millisecond response times. This is a low-latency system for mobile advertising where split-second decisions are the determinants of campaign success. The distributed architecture of the platform ensures global scalability and uniform performance, despite different geographic regions. Moreover, the programmatic advertising technology platform includes header bidding alongside the integration allowing publishers to increase their revenue through enabling multi-demand sources to compete for the same inventory simultaneously. The system's complex auction mechanics are not only concerned with bid prices but also take into account user experience, ad quality, and long-term value optimization. However, Applovin's server-side integration mechanisms spare the technical brunt of application developers while presenting centralized data collection and analysis techniques. This approach is compared to client-side implementations, which need multiple SDK integrations, resulting in longer app latency and poor user experience. Data Analytics and Attribution Technology The advanced data analytics structure of the company processes the huge amounts of data it collects to find insights that are valuable for both the advertisers and publishers. More advanced attribution models, in turn, allow for better measurement of the user paths across multiple touchpoints, which translates into higher confidence in the budget allocation decisions. The two ways to attribute the platform's capability are probabilistic and deterministic, which are useful for a much dense privacy environment. AppLovin's analytics tool provides sophisticated analysis of cohorts, predicting lifetime value, and churn modeling to the app developers in an effort to enhance the user acquisition process. The platform's ability to connect the costs of acquiring new users with the value they bring over time means it can help optimize return on ad investment (ROAS) more than measuring just installs can. The company's commitment to using privacy-friendly methods in data collection and analysis ensures that it is well-prepared for the ever-changing legal landscape. Data confidentiality and federated learning methods, together with innovative approaches in data collection, will facilitate users' right to privacy, and continue the optimization process by respecting regulatory mandates. Competition from Technology Giants AppLovin is up against robust competition from technology companies that are using their resources and networks. Google, through its AdMob platform and Google Ads ecosystem, is probably the strongest rival. Google's interconnectedness with Android, YouTube, and its advertising network turned it into a powerhouse that promises premium exposure and fine contracts. Facebook (Meta), through its Audience Network along with the vast amount of data from social media, which makes it possible for precise user targeting and cross-platform campaign management, is another relevant competitor. Apple's recent privacy policies, namely, App Tracking Transparency (ATT), are a mixed-source benefit in the competition scene. The fact is that these issues eliminate some of the attribution and targeting capabilities for a while but at the same time, that would bring balance to the situation by lessening the data advantages that some of the competitors had before. The way to deal with this threat is a concentration on those areas where the giants might not be as swift or/and comprehensive. The deep dive on the mobile gaming and app monetization areas by the company grants the right for more in-depth verticals and exactly tailor-made solutions rather than platform companies do. The optimization brought along with the AXON platform's automatic algorithms for the mobile app environment often results in better performance than generic ad solvers in the scope of new user quality and monetization efficiency. Competition from Specialist Ad Tech Companies The mobile advertising game is competitive with the participation of many niche players, each of whom has identified a particular slice of the market. Unity Technologies is one of them, in particular, because it uses its Unity Ads platform to operate in the same arena as mobile gaming ads and even leverage its game development engine to provide integrated advertising. IronSource (now part of Unity) used to be a significant adversary with its all-in-one platform that handled app monetization and user acquisition comprehensively. Chartboost has a very specific operation model that enables it to focus only on mobile game advertising, which includes direct publisher relationships and extensive knowledge of the gaming industry. Vungle (now part of Liftoff) is a firm that, through its video ad solutions, has added strong creative optimization capabilities. These companies are mostly known for their vibrant industry knowledge and long-standing partnerships defined within the industry sectors. However, these specialized players are giving a tough time with their niche focus, AppLovin is competing against them by bringing extra scale and high-level technology. The yield of billions and billions of ad requests daily makes the company to have the capacity of more effective machine learning optimizationin and standard machine learning schemes. AppLovin's user acquisition, monetization, and analytics in one solution platform and the simplicity of not having to carry out multiple integrations delivers accessibility and effectiveness over single point solutions that require integrations. Strengthened by the right acquisitions, the company is in a stronger position as it has consolidated its market share, and the potential competition was eliminated. The MoPub acquisition from Twitter gave AppLovin a digital publisher relationship and mediation capabilities while other small acquisitions enriched the tech stack and human resources, thus enhancing the platform. Key Risks Risks of Platform Dependency and Ecosystem Control AppLovin is at a high risk concerning the technological factors stemming from its reliance on mobile platforms governed by Apple and Google. Any iOS and Android platform policy changes can, in a matter of seconds, thus alter the way AppLovin operates. The real-time impact of the implementation of Apple's App Tracking Transparency (ATT) framework proved this vulnerability when mobile advertisers immediately lost the ability to accurately attribute and target their ads. The prospective platform issues may involve more rigorous SDK approval processes, more privacy restrictions, or modified app store policies that will limit the advertising functionality altogether. For instance, the introduction of Private Relay in iOS 17 and the addition of enhanced tracking protection greatly narrow data collection capabilities. Although the Privacy Sandbox initiative from Android is still in progress, it poses a serious risk of redefining the way mobile advertising attribution and targeting are done. The technical risk branch out to the potential scenarios of platform fragmentation in which different versions of iOS or Android impose different privacy and advertising restrictions. AppLovin's single platform strategy is rendered more complex as it needs to reconcile with the different technical requirements caused by the braid of platform versions and geographic regions with various regulatory frameworks. Algorithmic and Machine Learning Model Vulnerabilities AXON's machine learning algorithms are the backbone of AppLovin's business edge as they grant a strongly concentrated technical risk around model performance and accuracy. The susceptibility of machine learning models to concept drift, where changing user behavior patterns or market conditions reduce the effectiveness of the model over time, is one of the most common reasons for this fall. The constant mutation of the mobile advertising ecosystem can make the previously useful alphas to be of no use whatsoever. Model bias is another highlight technical risk, this is when the algorithms inadvertently discriminate against some user segments or app categories, which in turn could result in regulatory violations or suboptimal performance outcomes. Attacks that are deceitful to the machine learning systems could influence either the bidding algorithms or the attribution models, which will in turn lead to financial losses and site degradation. The scenario of being data poisoned where the hackers introduce the useless and malicious data into the training datasets has the detrimental effect of degrading the performance of the models or creating vulnerabilities which can be exploited. The scale at which AppLovin is processing data, daily handling over billions of events, is making it more difficult to ensure comprehensive data validation while maintaining the real-time processing needs. The most serious of the risks that are created through overfitting is the one that comes from the models completely specializing in what has been done historically, thereby rendering the generalization capacities for new market conditions or user behaviors very weak. The high focus on the gaming vertical that has led to a competitive advantage could be detrimental if the gaming industry undergoes a drastic change. Valuation The forward P/E ratios for AppLovin portray impressive earnings acceleration with the non-GAAP P/E declining from 45.93x (FY1) to 27.69x (FY3), which suggests an impressive earnings increase, outstripping all but one peer company. It is the market's strong response that makes the compression evident, showing that it appreciates AppLovin's ability to grow the business while also keeping profitability up. The company's PEG ratios of 0.94 (non-GAAP forward) and 0.31 (GAAP TTM) are at a high level with respect to the growth rates making the stock very attractive, at least, it is significantly more attractive than peers like Adobe (1.35) and Cadence (3.09). This fact shows that the value of AppLovin is off the charts due to its markdown price based on its growth potential, which is further elaborated by the large upside that is now available. In contrast to industry rivals, AppLovin's valuation metrics look realistic even if the absolute P/E ratios are higher. Adobe and Cadence declare lesser P/E compression over time, while AppLovin shows signs of higher earnings growth. The absence of profit for a company like MasterCard (negative P/Es) contrasts sharply with AppLovin's prevailing profits in the ad-tech sector. Guru Holdings Lowenstein's 17.19% stake which is equivalent to $762.85 million shows tremendous conviction, especially if we take into consideration the average buy price that he had of $75.06, which is representing a 423.6% gain. Lowenstein's convincing position, which is large in size and yields excellent returns, is an evidence of AppLovin's strategic execution and its growth path. The 12.86% increase in the holdings that Lowenstein took just lately proves that he still has confidence in the company despite the stock's larger rise, which in turn shows that the bottom line is the company's fundamentals rather than the ups and downs of the market. Resnick's 13.47% stake ($740.26M) with an average cost basis of $49.41 (695.4% gain) represents even earlier conviction in AppLovin's transformation story. The stability of his holdings (0% recent change) indicates dissatisfaction with current positioning while maintaining long-term conviction. Both managers' five-star ratings and substantial outperformance demonstrate their investment expertise. ConclusionAppLovin faces strong competition from technology companies like Google, Facebook, and Apple. Google's AdMob platform and Ads ecosystem, coupled with its interconnectedness with Android, YouTube, and its advertising network, offer premium exposure and fine contracts. Facebook's Audience Network and vast data from social media enable precise user targeting and cross-platform campaign management. Apple's recent privacy policies, App Tracking Transparency (ATT), provide mixed-source benefits in the competition scene, but may limit data advantages. To address this threat, AppLovin focuses on mobile gaming and app monetization areas, offering tailored solutions rather than generic ad solvers. The AXON platform's automatic algorithms for the mobile app environment often result in better performance than generic ad solvers in terms of user quality and monetization efficiency. This article first appeared on GuruFocus. Sign in to access your portfolio

Yahoo

9 hours ago

• Yahoo

Bernstein SocGen Lifts MSFT Target to $540 on AI-Driven Cloud Outlook

Bernstein SocGen has raised its price target on Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) to $540 from $520, and kept an Outperform rating for the stock a couple of weeks ago. Shares are trading at $477, near their 52-week high, with a market cap of $3.55 trillion. The firm sees longer-term upside tied to Microsoft's partnership with OpenAI. If OpenAI's roadmap unfolds as projected, Azure stands to capture a sizable share of the resulting demand, particularly in cloud infrastructure. Bernstein believes this could materially boost Microsoft's top line by 2029–2030. Image by Tawanda Razika from Pixabay To account for this, the analysts raised their revenue forecast for FY27 and increased earnings estimates for FY26 and FY27. They've also bumped Microsoft's valuation multiple from 28.5x to 29.5x. Most of the expected gains fall outside the near-term forecast window, but the analysts argue the long-range potential is strong enough to justify the upward adjustment. Azure's position in the AI supply chain remains central to that view. While we acknowledge the potential of MSFT as an investment, our conviction lies in the belief that some AI stocks hold greater promise for delivering higher returns and have limited downside risk. If you are looking for an extremely cheap AI stock that is also a major beneficiary of Trump tariffs and onshoring, see our free report on the best short-term AI stock. READ NEXT: The Best and Worst Dow Stocks for the Next 12 Months and 10 Unstoppable Stocks That Could Double Your Money. Disclosure: None. Sign in to access your portfolio