Here's The Likelihood Of An Asteroid Slamming Into Earth In 2032, According To Scientists
NASA researchers say an asteroid known as 2024 YR4 now has about a 1.5% chance of hitting Earth in 2032, a decrease from a record high estimate the day prior.
NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory said Tuesday that 2024 YR4 had a 3.1% chance of impact, but astronomers lowered the estimate on Wednesday after darker skies and increased visibility allowed them to take a better look at the asteroid. However, the European Space Agency (ESA) estimates the likelihood to be at 2.8% as of Wednesday.
The asteroid is estimated to be between 130 to 330 feet wide, and astronomers believe it could plow into the planet on Dec. 22, 2032.
There is also a 0.8% chance it could slam into our moon that day instead, according to NASA.
The International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) said the following regions on Earth are at risk of being hit by the asteroid in 2032: the eastern Pacific Ocean, northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, Africa, the Arabian Sea and South Asia.
The risks to Earth if the asteroid does collide with the planet are uncertain at the moment as its mass and potential impact location are unknown. As The New York Times notes, this could lead to a variety of possible scenarios from leveling a city to landing in the ocean and causing relatively little harm.
CBS News space consultant Bill Harwood said that the impact would be 'catastrophic' if the asteroid landed in a populated area, but the damage wouldn't be global.
'It wouldn't be something like the rock that killed the dinosaurs,' Harwood said. 'It wouldn't affect the global climate, but it would certainly be a disaster of every proportion. So we're all hoping that doesn't happen.'
While 2024 YR4′s risk level on Tuesday was the highest ever recorded, it's overwhelmingly likely that the asteroid misses Earth. However, the IAWN notifies the public of an asteroid anytime there is a 1% chance or above of impact, which is extremely rare.
The last time an asteroid met this threshold was in 2004, when asteroid Apophis' probability of hitting Earth in 2029 was raised to 2.7%. After its 2004 discovery, astronomers tracked Apophis, estimated to be about 1,100 feet across, to better understand its path. NASA now says there is no risk of Apophis striking Earth for at least a century.
2024 YR4 was discovered last December, when it had an estimated 1% chance of crashing into the planet in 2032. Passing the planet once every four years, the space rock blew past us in 2024 and is expected to do so again in 2028 without incident.
'We are not worried at all, because of this 99 percent chance it will miss,' Paul Chodas, director of NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies, said at the time. 'But it deserves attention.'
The asteroid will no longer be visible starting in April, but experts intend to study it using the James Webb Space Telescope in the meantime. It will be visible again in June 2028.
'As more observations of the asteroid's orbit are obtained, its impact probability will become better known,' NASA said in a planetary defense blog post published on Feb. 7. 'It is possible that asteroid 2024 YR4 will be ruled out as an impact hazard, as has happened with many other objects that have previously appeared on NASA's asteroid risk list, maintained by NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies.'
According to NASA, asteroids were born during the formation of the solar system 4.6 billion years ago. There are currently 1,362,002 of them known to NASA — many of them ranging from as tiny as 3 feet to as large as 329 miles.
Besides 2024 YR4, there are not currently other asteroids with an impact probability above 1% at the moment, according to NASA.
The good news is that NASA demonstrated that it's possible to alter an asteroid's trajectory with a first-of-its-kind test conducted in 2021 and 2022. In the experimental mission, known as the Double Asteroid Redirection Test, experts successfully changed the path of space rock after launching a spacecraft into the object. The method is known as 'kinetic impact.'
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The telescope is also considered the most effective way to spot any interstellar comets or asteroids that may travel through our solar system. The observatory's mirror design, sensitive camera and telescope speed are all the first of its kind, enabling Rubin to spot tiny, faint objects such as asteroids. The observatory will also constantly take thousands of images every night, cataloging changes in brightness to reveal otherwise hidden space rocks like near-Earth asteroids that could be on a collision course with our planet, according to the foundation. A sneak peek shared Monday includes a video made from over 1,100 images captured by the observatory that begins with a detailed look at two galaxies. The video then zooms out to showcase about 10 million galaxies spotted by the camera's wide view — roughly 0.05% of the 20 billion galaxies Rubin will observe over 10 years. 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'NSF-DOE Rubin Observatory will capture more information about our universe than all optical telescopes throughout history combined,' said National Science Foundation Chief of Staff Brian Stone, who is currently performing the duties of the NSF director (as the position is currently vacant). Among the observatory's initial accomplishments was the discovery of 2,104 asteroids, including seven near-Earth asteroids, that have never been seen before in our solar system. None of the newly found near-Earth asteroids pose a risk to our planet, according to scientists at the observatory. Imagery of the asteroids is expected to be shared later Monday. While ground- and space-based telescopes spot about 20,000 asteroids each year, Rubin Observatory is expected to uncover millions of the space rocks within its first two years, according to the National Science Foundation. The telescope is also considered the most effective way to spot any interstellar comets or asteroids that may travel through our solar system. The observatory's mirror design, sensitive camera and telescope speed are all the first of its kind, enabling Rubin to spot tiny, faint objects such as asteroids. The observatory will also constantly take thousands of images every night, cataloging changes in brightness to reveal otherwise hidden space rocks like near-Earth asteroids that could be on a collision course with our planet, according to the foundation. A sneak peek shared Monday includes a video made from over 1,100 images captured by the observatory that begins with a detailed look at two galaxies. The video then zooms out to showcase about 10 million galaxies spotted by the camera's wide view — roughly 0.05% of the 20 billion galaxies Rubin will observe over 10 years. 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'NSF-DOE Rubin Observatory will capture more information about our universe than all optical telescopes throughout history combined,' said National Science Foundation Chief of Staff Brian Stone, who is currently performing the duties of the NSF director (as the position is currently vacant). Among the observatory's initial accomplishments was the discovery of 2,104 asteroids, including seven near-Earth asteroids, that have never been seen before in our solar system. None of the newly found near-Earth asteroids pose a risk to our planet, according to scientists at the observatory. Imagery of the asteroids is expected to be shared later Monday. While ground- and space-based telescopes spot about 20,000 asteroids each year, Rubin Observatory is expected to uncover millions of the space rocks within its first two years, according to the National Science Foundation. The telescope is also considered the most effective way to spot any interstellar comets or asteroids that may travel through our solar system. The observatory's mirror design, sensitive camera and telescope speed are all the first of its kind, enabling Rubin to spot tiny, faint objects such as asteroids. The observatory will also constantly take thousands of images every night, cataloging changes in brightness to reveal otherwise hidden space rocks like near-Earth asteroids that could be on a collision course with our planet, according to the foundation. A sneak peek shared Monday includes a video made from over 1,100 images captured by the observatory that begins with a detailed look at two galaxies. The video then zooms out to showcase about 10 million galaxies spotted by the camera's wide view — roughly 0.05% of the 20 billion galaxies Rubin will observe over 10 years. The observatory team also released a mosaic of the Trifid and Lagoon nebulae, which are star-forming regions that resemble clouds located in the Sagittarius constellation. The mosaic, made up of 678 separate images taken over just seven hours, captured faint and previously invisible details such as clouds of gas and dust in the nebulae, which are several thousand light-years away from Earth. The initial images were selected to showcase the telescope's enormous field of view, which enables detailed glimpses of interacting galaxies as well as broad views of millions of galaxies, said Dr. Yusra AlSayyad, deputy associate director of the data management subsystem for the Rubin Observatory. 'It has such a wide field of view and such a rapid cadence that you do have that movielike aspect to the night sky,' said Dr. Sandrine Thomas, telescope project scientist for the Rubin Observatory. The observatory, located in the Andes on the top of Cerro Pachón in Chile, is nearly complete after about two decades of work. The facility is set to achieve 'first light,' or make the first scientific observations of the Southern Hemisphere's sky using its 8.4-meter (27.5-foot) Simonyi Survey Telescope, on July 4. The telescope's location in the Southern Hemisphere allows for a great view of the Milky Way's galactic center, said Edward Ajhar, Rubin Observatory's program officer. The region in central Chile has also been home to other ground-based observatories and is favored for astronomical observations because it affords dry air and dark skies. The observatory's main objective is the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, an ultrawide and ultra-high-definition movie of the universe made by scanning the entire sky every few nights over 10 years to capture a time-lapse compilation of whizzing asteroids and comets, exploding stars, and distant galaxies as they change. The survey is expected to begin between four to seven months after first light. '(Rubin) will enable us to explore galaxies, stars in the Milky Way, objects in the solar system, and all in a truly new way. Since we take images of the night sky so quickly and so often, (it) will detect millions of changing objects literally every night,' said Dr. Aaron Roodman, professor of particle physics and astrophysics at Stanford University's SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory in California. Roodman was responsible for the assembly and testing of Rubin Observatory's camera. Rubin's capabilities to spot interesting phenomena will also enable it to be a 'discovery machine' that can identify interesting areas of focus for other telescopes, Roodman said. The observatory could also enable the detection of previously unknown types of celestial objects. The telescope's namesake, considered to be one of the most influential women astronomers, provided some of the first evidence that dark matter existed. In Rubin's honor, the telescope is expected to continue her pioneering work. 'Through this remarkable scientific facility, we will explore many cosmic mysteries, including the dark matter and dark energy that permeate the universe,' Stone said. Dark matter is an enigmatic substance that shapes the cosmos, while dark energy is a force that accelerates the expansion rate of the universe, according to NASA. Though they are thought to make up most of the cosmos, both are impossible to directly observe but can be detected due to their gravitational effects. 'Rubin has enormous potential to help us learn what dark energy really is and how the universe's expansion is accelerating here, too,' Roodman said. 'Rubin's unique ability to see billions of galaxies and to image them repeatedly over 10 years will literally enable us to see the universe in a new way.'
