Elon Musk pins his hopes on a fleet of robotaxis as Tesla sales tank
Elon Musk's long-touted vision of a widespread Tesla "robotaxi" fleet appears to be taking a tentative step towards reality, with a small-scale test run of self-driving cabs set to begin in Austin, Texas, this Sunday.
This limited deployment comes after years of ambitious, yet unfulfilled, pledges from the billionaire entrepreneur. In 2019, Musk promised driverless Tesla robotaxis would be on the road "next year," a commitment he reiterated in 2020 for the following year.
Despite these repeated missed deadlines, the promises continued, with Musk stating as recently as January last year, "Next year for sure, we'll have over a million robotaxis."
The current Austin trial, involving a "small squad" of vehicles, stands in stark contrast to the millions he once envisioned. While this marks a tangible move, reaching a fleet of a million robotaxis is projected to take "a year or more." However, the service could see expansion later this year, contingent on the success of the initial Austin demonstration.
The stakes couldn't be higher, nor the challenges.
While Musk was making those 'next year' promises, rival Waymo was busy deploying driverless taxis in Los Angeles, San Diego, Austin and other cities by using a different technology that allowed it to get to market faster. It just completed its 10 millionth paid ride.
Boycotts related to Musk's politics have tanked Tesla's sales. Rival electric vehicle makers with newly competitive models have stolen market share. And investors are on edge after a $150 billion stock wipeout when Musk picked a social media fight with a U.S. president overseeing federal car regulators who could make the robotaxi rollout much more difficult. The stock has recovered somewhat after Musk said he regretted some of his remarks.
Tesla shareholders have stood by Musk over the years because he's defied the odds by building a successful standalone electric vehicle company — self-driving car promises aside — and making them a lot of money in the process. A decade ago, Tesla shares traded for around $18. The shares closed Friday at $322.
Musk says the Austin test will begin modestly enough, with just 10 or 12 vehicles picking up passengers in a limited area. But then it will quickly ramp up and spread to other cities, eventually reaching hundreds of thousands if not a million vehicles next year.
Some Musk watchers on Wall Street are skeptical.
'How quickly can he expand the fleet?' asks Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA. 'We're talking maybe a dozen vehicles initially. It's very small."
Morningstar's Seth Goldstein says Musk is being classic Musk: Promising too much, too quickly.
'When anyone in Austin can download the app and use a robotaxi, that will be a success, but I don't think that will happen until 2028," he says. 'Testing is going to take a while.'
Musk's tendency to push up the stock high with a bit of hyperbole is well known among investors.
In 2018, he told Tesla stockholders he had 'funding secured' to buy all their shares at a massive premium and take the company private. But he not only lacked a written commitment from financiers, according to federal stock regulators who fined him, he hadn't discussed the loan amount or other details with them.
More recently, Musk told CNBC in May that Tesla was experiencing a 'major rebound' in demand. A week later an auto trade group in Europe announced sales had plunged by half.
Musk has come under fire for allegedly exaggerating the ability of the system used for its cars to drive themselves, starting with the name. Full Self-Driving is a misnomer. The system still requires drivers to keep their eyes on the road because they may need to intervene and take control at any moment.
Federal highway safety regulators opened an investigation into FSD last year after several accidents, and the Department of Justice has conducted its own probe, though the status of that is not known. Tesla has also faced lawsuits over the feature, some resulting in settlements, other dismissed. In one case, a judge ruled against the plaintiffs but only because they hadn't proved Musk 'knowingly' made false statements.
Musk says the robotaxis will be running on an improved version of Full Self-Driving and the cabs will be safe.
He also says the service will be able to expand rapidly around the country. His secret weapon: Millions of Tesla owners now on the roads. He says an over-the-air software update will soon allow them to turn their cars into driverless cabs and start a side business while stuck at the office for eight hours or on vacation for a week.
'Instead of having your car sit in the parking lot, your car could be earning money,' Musk said earlier this year, calling it an Airbnb model for cars. 'You will be able to add or subtract your car to the fleet.'
Musk says Tesla also can move fast to deploy taxis now because of his decision to rely only on cameras for the cars to navigate, unlike Waymo, which has gone a more expensive route by supplementing its cameras with lasers and radar.
'Tesla will have, I don't know,' Musk mused in an conference call with investors, '99% market share or something ridiculous.' Given Waymo's head start and potential competition from Amazon and others, dominating the driverless market to that extent could be a reach.
But Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst and big Musk fan, says this time Musk may actually pull it off because of Tesla's ability to scale up quickly. And even skeptics like Morningstar's Goldstein acknowledge that Musk occasionally does gets things right, and spectacularly so.
He upended the car industry by getting people to buy expensive electric vehicles, brought his Starlink satellite internet service to rural areas and, more recently, performed a gee-whiz trick of landing an unmanned SpaceX rocket on a platform back on earth.
'Maybe his timelines aren't realistic," Goldstein says, 'but he can develop futuristic technology products.'
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Bloomberg
8 minutes ago
- Bloomberg
Fed's Daly Says Central Bank Communication Should Be Flexible
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President Mary Daly said central bankers need to communicate with flexibility at times of uncertainty, given that using strong forward guidance sometimes 'comes with a price.' 'The economy is dynamic, and our communications must match it,' Daly said Sunday in a speech prepared for the Western Economic Association International's 100th Annual Conference. Daly didn't comment on the outlook for the economy or policy in her written remarks, which she also said were not about the Fed's ongoing framework review.
Forbes
13 minutes ago
- Forbes
Microsoft Confirms Windows 11 Automatic Deletions: Take Action Now To Protect Yourself
Microsoft's Windows 11 creates System Restore points, that is, snapshots of your PC's system files, settings and registry. But those points expire and are automatically deleted after 60 days, Microsoft has now confirmed. Users can protect themselves by creating regular System Restore points. 'With System Restore you can revert your PC's state to a previous point in time. By using System Restore, you can undo these changes without affecting your personal files,' Microsoft says. Windows 11 Which is great, but those restore points don't last forever, so it's important to know exactly how long they are there for. Previous documentation suggested that on Windows 10, restore points could last as long as 90 days. Windows Latest reports that 'After Windows 11's release in 2021, the retention period has been anywhere between 10 and 90 days (mostly 10 days),' it says. Ten days really isn't long, but there's good news. In a new support document relating to the June 10 update, Microsoft is a bit more specific. 'After installing the June 2025 Windows security update, Windows 11, version 24H2 will retain system restore points for up to 60 days. To apply a restore point, select Open System Restore. Restore points older than 60 days are not available. This 60-day limit will also apply to future versions of Windows 11, version 24H2,' it says. In other words, Microsoft has confirmed that Windows 11 System Restore points will be deleted after 60 days, so you need to periodically create restore points. That's not as good as 90 days, obviously, but way better than 10 days. 'This will give you multiple snapshots, but Windows will still delete the oldest ones once they exceed the retention window (now 60 days on Windows 11 24H2 by default),' says Windows Latest. To create your own System Restore point, as Windows Latest explains, you open Start and search for 'Create a restore point,' which will open System Protection tab in System Properties. Next, under Protection Settings, check that one of the partitions where you're going to put the backup is protected. Choose that partition and Configure to turn on protection. Then, click Create and follow the onscreen instructions. This will last for 60 days. Now that the deletion date is clear, it seems like creating one every few weeks is good practice.
TechCrunch
13 minutes ago
- TechCrunch
Moratorium on state AI regulation clears Senate hurdle
A Republican effort to prevent states from enforcing their own AI regulations cleared a key procedural hurdle on Saturday. The rule, as reportedly rewritten by Senate Commerce Chair Ted Cruz in an attempt to comply with budgetary rules, would withhold federal broadband funding from states if they try to enforce AI regulations in the next 10 years. And the rewrite seems to have passed muster, with the Senate Parliamentarian now ruling that the provision is not subject to the so-called Byrd rule — so it can be included in Republicans' 'One Big, Beautiful Bill' and passed with a simple majority, without potentially getting blocked by a filibuster, and without requiring support from Senate Democrats. However, it's not clear how many Republicans will support the moratorium. For example, Republican Senator Marsha Blackburn of Tennessee recently said, 'We do not need a moratorium that would prohibit our states from stepping up and protecting citizens in their state.' And while the House of Representatives already passed a version of the bill that included a moratorium on AI regulation, far-right Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene subbsequently declared that she is 'adamantly OPPOSED' the provision as 'a violation of state rights' and said it needs to be 'stripped out in the Senate.' House Speaker Mike Johnson defended the provision by saying it had President Donald Trump's support and arguing, 'We have to be careful not to have 50 different states regulating AI, because it has national security implications, right?' In a recent report, Americans for Responsible Innovation (an advocacy group for AI regulation), wrote that 'the proposal's broad language could potentially sweep away a wide range of public interest state legislation regulating AI and other algorithmic-based technologies, creating a regulatory vacuum across multiple technology policy domains without offering federal alternatives to replace the eliminated state-level guardrails.' Techcrunch event Save $200+ on your TechCrunch All Stage pass Build smarter. Scale faster. Connect deeper. Join visionaries from Precursor Ventures, NEA, Index Ventures, Underscore VC, and beyond for a day packed with strategies, workshops, and meaningful connections. Save $200+ on your TechCrunch All Stage pass Build smarter. Scale faster. Connect deeper. Join visionaries from Precursor Ventures, NEA, Index Ventures, Underscore VC, and beyond for a day packed with strategies, workshops, and meaningful connections. Boston, MA | REGISTER NOW A number of states do seem to be taking steps toward AI regulation. In California, Governor Gavin Newsom vetoed a high-profile AI safety bill last year while signing a number of less controversial regulations around issues like privacy and deepfakes. In New York, an AI safety bill passed by state lawmakers is awaiting Governor Kathy Hochul's signature. And Utah has passed its own regulations around AI transparency.
