Shifting sands of Nilambur fray: Vijayan pick vs Cong stalwart's legacy vs ‘spoiler'

Nilambur is dripping in rain. It is quite a while since Kerala saw a wet election and like a well-begun monsoon gone awry, the bypoll in the Nilambur constituency seems to be turning less and less predictable.
The state Assembly is into its slog overs – and this by-election wasn't meant to shake the earth, just set the tone for the coming big polls due early next year. The campaign was being watched more for its atmospherics than the outcome.
The Opposition Congress-led UDF was a clear favourite here. Its candidate Aryadan Shoukath is a second-generation leader from a steadfast Congress family of this old Malabar teak town with considerable Muslim presence. His late father Aryadan Mohammad had won eight times as an MLA from here, going on to serve as a minister, and a trouble-shooter, in the erstwhile Congress-led coalition regime.
Shoukath nurtured his father's formidable political legacy. As head of the Nilambur Municipality and before it was upgraded the panchayat, he caught national attention for his literacy, child welfare and health schemes. His support base includes Adivasis, who departed from custom and came down from the hills to attend his daughter's wedding in 2015.
Many believed that Shoukath would have a smooth sailing in the bypoll. But what appeared to be a walkover is now looking like a contest, thanks to rival candidate M Swaraj of the ruling CPI(M).
Handpicked by Chief Minister Pinarayi Vijayan, the choice 'cannot go wrong', say comrades. Several leaders from the CPI(M)-led LDF speak in unison for their chief, who seeks next year a third successive term, an uphill task in the shifty state. The June 19 Nilambur bypoll is no bellwether but its sheer proximity to the Assembly polls has pepped up the campaigns of the key contenders.
That the CPI(M) is on overdrive is evident in the briefest of pit stops. In Pothukkallu panchayat at Kuttamkulam Kunnu, a tiny spot beyond the state highway and the Google map, Swaraj's roadshow has a ten-minute stop which cannot be better packaged. What follows could be the envy of event managers.
In all of three minutes, the candidate is ceremonially ushered in by a percussion ensemble in traditional temple wear and serially garlanded by senior comrades. Next, he makes his two-minute campaign pitch and stops abruptly to direct a local talent to croon a one-minute snatch from the eternal Communist hymn for martyrdom, 'Balikuteerangale'. Within seconds, a box of sweets pops up and is emptied in no time, provoking a punchline from Swaraj: 'Ladoos are already here. We have won.'
Earlier in the day, the Congress candidate's campaign looked less organised but more free flowing. At street meetings in his home turf, Shoukath slips out of his car almost unnoticed and instantly merges with clusters of voters many of whom he seems to know by first name. More than handshakes, he hugs and that gives him extra proximity to the voter ear into which he whispers. The hush-hush adds a certain mystique to the personal contact. After this, his amplified articulation from the makeshift dais is a mere formality.
Shoukath is no pushover, says an insider who pauses to caution that there is a potential 'spoiler' in the fray, P V Anvar, the previous legislator whose resignation necessitated the byoll. Spurned by the state's two major fronts, the well-connected businessman-turned-politician, Anvar, contesting again as an Independent, has put up text-heavy hoardings that list in bullet points his pique and promise.
Barely anyone halts to look up and read through the frozen power point presentation, though. Otherwise, it would have caused traffic snarls in this hilly terrain.
A recurring presence on the winding roads is the BJP-led NDA's decked up vehicle seeking votes for its candidate Mohan George. Recorded audio plays in loop and the vehicle is empty but for the dutiful soul at the wheel. The BJP, led by state unit head Rajeev Chandrasekhar, must be keen to cross the Vindhyas, but that may not happen hurriedly across the Nilambur hills.

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