Will Morgan Wallen & Tate McRae Be Able to Hold at No. 1 on the Hot 100?
The Contenders is a midweek column that looks at artists aiming for the top of the Billboard charts, and the strategies behind their efforts. This week, for the upcoming Billboard Hot 100 dated June 7, we look at the chances of Morgan Wallen and Tate McRae's star-powered duet to continue its reign on the chart.
Morgan Wallen feat. Tate McRae, 'What I Want' (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): The combined star power of country superpower Morgan Wallen and rising pop phenom Tate McRae helped boost 'What I Want' to being not just the highest-ranking of Wallen's record-breaking 37 tracks on the Hot 100 last week, but the No. 1 song period – Wallen's fourth and McRae's first. The debut came on the back of 31.2 million official streams, according to Luminate, allowing it to bow atop the Streaming Songs chart and making up for its relative lack of radio presence as a new song.
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That streaming presence should still be very pronounced in its second week, as the song continues to reign on the Spotify Daily Top Songs USA chart and the Apple Music real-time chart. And the song is already starting to make a radio impact: After debuting at Nos. 32 and 38 on Adult Pop Airplay and Pop Airplay, respectively, on this week's charts (dated May 31), it's pushing toward the top 25 on both. (On Country Airplay, it debuted at No. 55 this week but looks likely to fall off next week – granted it's being promoted so far only to pop and adult formats.)
If the song can hold for a second week, it will become the first multi-week Hot 100 No. 1 from I'm the Problem, pulling past the one-week No. 1 'Love Somebody,' which topped the chart last November. (It would still have another 14 weeks to go to tie the longest-reigning single from prior album One Thing at a Time, the 16-week No. 1 'Last Night' in 2023.)
Alex Warren, 'Ordinary' (Atlantic): If not for Morgan Wallen's I'm the Problem album debut, we might be talking about Alex Warren celebrating his first Hot 100 No. 1 single this week. After multiple frames of being at stuck at No. 2 behind Kendrick Lamar and SZA's 'Luther,' 'Ordinary' finally moves ahead of that 13-week No. 1 – but still only ranks at No. 4 on this week's chart, after falling behind three tracks from I'm the Problem.
Nevertheless, 'Ordinary' should remain a strong contender for the top spot. It still ranks towards the top of the major streaming charts, and after reaching the Radio Songs top 10 this week, the song is now aiming for the top five; it's up 16% in audience May 23-26 over the previous building week. It's also challenging for No. 1 next week on Adult Pop Airplay, and could come for the crown on Pop Airplay not long after.
Meanwhile, Warren has a new song out in the Jelly Roll collab 'Bloodline,' which should also be headed for a strong Hot 100 debut. But as shown with the success of recent artists like Teddy Swims and Benson Boone, having simultaneous follow-up hits can be more helpful than harmful to the original hits these days, so 'Bloodline' doing well might boost 'Ordinary' in its pursuit of the top spot.
Morgan Wallen, 'Just in Case' and 'I'm the Problem' (Mercury/Big Loud/Republic): Morgan Wallen will still be seeing an awful lot of himself in the rearview mirror, as his solo songs that rank at No. 2 and 3 on the Hot 100 this week — 'Just in Case' and 'I'm the Problem,' respectively – should remain big factors on the chart next week as well. Though the two songs rank behind 'What I Want' on DSPs, they still have the head start on radio: 'Just in Case' continues climbing Country Airplay, though it could be still outside the top 10 next week, after rising to a new No. 13 high this week. Meanwhile, 'I'm the Problem' has ruled Country Airplay for six weeks already, and could be on pace for a seventh week at No. 1.
If one of these other I'm the Problem tracks is able to pass 'What I Want' on next week's Hot 100, Wallen would replace himself on top for the first time in his career – becoming the first artist to do so since… Kendrick Lamar just a couple months ago, after a Super Bowl-rebounded 'Not Like Us' gave way to 'Luther' and its months-long reign.
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