Trump-Xi call restores trade truce. But the supply chain war has no end in sight

The fragile trade truce between the United States and China has, for now, been pulled back from the brink.
US President Donald Trump finally got his long-anticipated phone call with Chinese leader Xi Jinping, during which the two agreed to resume trade talks that had stalled over accusations from each side that the other had reneged on previous promises.
Thursday's 90-minute conversation brought a temporary reprieve from an escalating feud between the superpower rivals, but it offered no clear path toward resolving their deep-rooted divisions – especially over crucial supply chains that both sides consider vital to national security.
US officials accused China of backpedaling on its pledge made during May talks in Geneva to ease export restrictions on rare earth minerals critical to a wide range of industries. Beijing, meanwhile, has bristled at Washington's moves to warn companies against using China's most advanced AI chips, restrict chip design software sales to China and 'aggressively revoke' Chinese student visas.
'After what happened during the past 10 days, I already call (the phone call) a win,' said Yun Sun, director of the China program at the Washington-based Stimson Center think tank.
'Both sides acknowledge that this was a positive interaction, and the two leaders coming together can solve problems. It's good for their strong man image and leadership credentials.'
While Trump had repeatedly expressed keenness for the call, including complimenting Xi's toughness in a late-night social media post this week, Xi has taken his time in picking up the phone.
'The Chinese state is under significantly less pressure than its American counterpart in coming to the negotiating table,' said Brian Wong, an assistant professor at the University of Hong Kong. 'The Chinese leadership joined the call from a position of political strength, even whilst economic concerns are very much alive and real.'
Trump's eagerness to talk – and his speediness in declaring that he had 'straightened out' the dispute over rare earth exports with Xi – has once again demonstrated to the Chinese leader just how powerful his nation's dominance in the sector is.
Since April, when China announced the export controls, the new system has disrupted the shipment of the minerals, raising alarms among officials and businesses alike in Europe and America.
In the Chinese readout, Xi insisted that China had 'seriously and earnestly' complied with the agreement, even as US officials have repeatedly accused Beijing of slow-walking approvals for rare earth exports.
Wu Xinbo, director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai, noted that official rules dictate that applications for export licenses can take up to 45 working days to be approved.
'In principle, I can agree to export to you, but I can speed things up or slow them down. In reality, on a technical level, it also depends on the overall bilateral trade and economic atmosphere,' he said. 'If the bilateral relationship is good, then I'll go a bit faster; if not, I'll slow down. But you can't say I'm violating the agreement — I'm still following the standard procedures.'
While American businesses are likely to see more export licenses approved in the next couple of weeks, according to Wu, the export control regime is here to stay.
Zhiqun Zhu, director of the China Institute at Bucknell University in Pennsylvania, put it more bluntly, calling China's dominance on rare earths 'one of the few cards' it holds in the trade war.
'Why would the US government expect China to give up the rare earth card to please the US if it treats China as the enemy?' he wrote in an article prior to the Trump-Xi call.
In the days leading up to the phone call, Chinese scholars have suggested that Beijing should use its leverage on rare earths to get Washington to ease its own export controls on cutting-edge chips. Unlike rare earths, China doesn't dominate this industry at the highest levels, and it views any supply bottleneck on the US side as an obstacle to its technological development.
Following his conversation with Xi, Trump announced that Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick will join Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Trade Representative Jamieson Greer in the next round of trade talks.
That was noted by observers in both China and the US as a sign that US export controls may now be up for negotiation in a potential win for Beijing.
'The US Department of Commerce is responsible for export controls, which means that in the next stage, China-US negotiations will likely go beyond tariffs and also address issues such as export controls and entity sanctions,' Wu said.
During his first term in office, Trump lifted a ban on American companies doing business with Chinese telecom giant ZTE at Xi's request to get a trade deal. But six years on, easing export controls on China will be a tough sell in Washington, where blocking Beijing's access to advanced American technologies has become a rare bipartisan issue.
'Just having Lutnick there (in the trade talks) doesn't mean that the US is going to make concessions on semiconductors,' Sun said.
She predicts more flare-ups of tensions down the road. 'This 'three steps forward two steps back' is going to be the norm from now on. We're not going to see a deal agreed without any drawbacks, and we're going to see this repeating itself,' she added.
While the call signaled temporary relief, it also exposed stark differences in how the US and China approach their trade disputes: Trump tends to treat trade as a primary and standalone issue, whereas Beijing often views it in the context of broader bilateral relations.
Trump said in his Truth Social post that the hour-and-a-half conversation phone call was 'focused almost entirely on TRADE,' while the Chinese readout singled out Xi's stern warning on Taiwan – the reddest of lines for Beijing – and the issue of Chinese student visas.
The Chinese leader urged the US to 'handle the Taiwan question with prudence' so that ''Taiwan independence' separatists' will not be able to 'drag China and America into the dangerous terrain of confrontation and even conflict.'
The contrast strikes at the core of the gulf between China and the US, Wong said.
'Whilst Trump views the competition through primarily trade surplus/deficit terms, Xi views territorial integrity as … more important than the country's economic interests,' he said.
From Beijing's perspective, there are plenty of worrying signs. Last weekend, US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth warned Asian allies that China posed an 'imminent' threat to Taiwan, a self-governing democracy Beijing views as its own and has vowed to take control of, by force if necessary.
Days before, Reuters had reported, citing US official sources, that Washington plans to ramp up weapon sales to Taipei to a level exceeding Trump's first term as part of an effort to deter China's intensifying military pressure.
Another issue of concern for Beijing is the fate of Chinese students in the US. Last week, Secretary of State Macro Rubio, a known China-hawk, announced a plan to 'aggressively revoke' visas for Chinese students, a move that has caused widespread anxiety and anger in China.
The Chinese readout quoted Trump as saying that Chinese students are welcome in the US. Trump later told reporters in the Oval Office: 'Chinese students are coming. No problem. No problem. It's our honor to have them.'
Wu said the adjustment of the visa policy will be a test of Trump's leadership. During their call, Xi told Trump that the two leaders should 'take the helm and set the right course' for bilateral relations, saying it's particularly important to steer clear of 'various disturbances and disruptions.'
'This remark had a clear target – it implies that within Trump's team, there are people trying to disrupt or undermine the bilateral relationship, so now it's up to President Trump to show leadership,' Wu said.

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Big Tech promised jobs. Cities gave millions. Where are the workers?

Columbus, Ohio, escaped the Rust Belt rut years ago. Regional economic development officials offered incentives that attracted warehouses, manufacturing plants, and healthcare startups, reviving the economy and generating jobs. By 2018, hundreds of these deals over the previous eight years had created some 150,000 jobs. Central Ohio now hopes to repeat that success. It's betting big on "Silicon Heartland," a high-tech innovation hub that proponents hope will be flush with high-paying jobs. Economic officials have dangled multimillion-dollar tax subsidy packages before some of the world's biggest technology companies. The resulting investment, Gov. Mike DeWine promised, "further cements Ohio as the heart of our nation's technology and innovation." Mostly, they're getting data centers. Central Ohio has become one of America's hottest hubs for these computing warehouses, with companies including Amazon, Google, Meta, and QTS flocking there, lured largely by generous incentives. 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The number of jobs doesn't balance the cost, multiple economists and researchers who study tax subsidies told Business Insider — even factoring in the construction and other supporting roles that the tech industry uses to calculate its economic impact. Records show that the workforce on data center projects quickly tapers off, meaning industry estimates often significantly overstate long-term employment benefits. The costs to the public don't end with tax subsidies. Data centers drive up electricity costs for other ratepayers as utility operators invest billions of dollars in new grid infrastructure to support escalating power demands. That has drawn opposition from other companies including retail giant Walmart, which has said that surging electricity bills are imperiling its expansion in states such as Ohio and Virginia. Industry advocates argue the deals are worth it. "Each new data center built in Ohio spurs a significant boost in investment, revenue, and wages that flow to Ohio businesses and workers, stimulating the state's economy," Josh Levi, the president of the Data Center Coalition, an industry advocacy group, wrote in an August 2024 op-ed article published by In recent US congressional testimony, he cited an estimate that data centers in Central Ohio supported more than "10,000 construction jobs, 2,000 data center jobs, and hundreds of maintenance and retrofitting jobs last year." Drilling into the terms of specific economic development deals suggests a more complicated picture. In 2021, for example, Google entered into a much-celebrated deal with Columbus to construct a data center campus. The city offered a 100% property tax abatement worth an estimated $54 million in tax savings over 15 years. In exchange, the Google facility promised 20 full-time jobs at the data center, rising to about 40 jobs by 2047. Artificial intelligence is accelerating data center construction that already was growing quickly to power digital services from social media to medical care. In 2025 alone, Meta plans to spend at least $64 billion on facilities and equipment. Google's parent company, Alphabet, plans to spend $75 billion, and Microsoft said it would invest $80 billion. Tech companies say their investments will supercharge local tax revenues and high-paying jobs will drive economic growth. Even with tax breaks, data centers contributed $162.7 billion in federal, state, and local tax revenue in 2023, according to a February 2025 PwC report prepared for the Data Center Coalition. The industry, the report said, supported 4.7 million jobs directly at data centers or indirectly through their supply chain. Amazon, the biggest data center operator, calculates that its data centers each year have supported thousands of jobs, including 4,760 in Ohio and 19,110 in Virginia. Matt Hurst, a spokesperson for Amazon Web Services, Amazon's cloud-computing arm, told Business Insider the company was "proud of the good jobs we create, for the trust local communities invest in us, and for the opportunity we have to invest in those communities." Meta says that its data center operations support 16,000 jobs and $1.2 billion in labor income annually, and that it has backed 440,000 construction jobs over the past decade. Google says its data centers supported 119,000 jobs and contributed $12.6 billion to US gross domestic product in 2023 across its supply chain, including construction. Microsoft's website says its data centers generate "public infrastructure improvements and tax revenue that serve as a catalyst for enhancing the quality of life." "Our developments generate millions of dollars in tax revenue to support local priorities related to schools, roads, housing, and other critical needs, while also reducing the tax burden on residents," a spokesperson for QTS, which is owned by the investment firm Blackstone, said in a statement. A Blackstone spokesperson also highlighted the benefits of data center development and said the company was "proud that our investment in QTS provides the digital infrastructure critical to the future of our country and economy." Competition to score these promised benefits can be a race to the bottom, as developers pit state against state and city against city. New projects cluster in areas that offer the most competitive deals. To investigate how these incentive deals play out, Business Insider identified areas of data center development and filed requests with all 50 states and Washington, DC, for the air permits that regulate backup generators at every data center. Business Insider compiled records for 1,240 data centers nationwide, the most definitive accounting to date, and requested records of data-center-related economic incentives from municipalities and states. The largest data centers in Business Insider's analysis — the 322 massive facilities that we estimate consume 40 megawatts of electricity or more each — are heavily concentrated in a few places. Northern Virginia has 214, followed by Arizona's Maricopa County with 16, and Ohio's Columbus region with 9. Thirty-seven states have tax incentive programs for data center investments. Most exempt developers from sales and use taxes on building materials, machinery, or equipment — resulting in big hits to state coffers. In Virginia, 56 data center projects cost $928 million in abated state sales tax in the 2023 fiscal year alone. Disclosures in Ohio estimate it forfeited nearly $360 million in data-center-related state tax revenue from the 2022 through 2024 fiscal years. Mason Waldvogel, a spokesperson for the Ohio Department of Development, called the tax incentive program "a strategic tool used to create long-term economic growth by attracting high-value, capital-intensive projects." A spokesperson for the Data Center Coalition said state tax exemptions for data centers were consistent with programs for other capital-intensive industries. Cities also offer incentives, including breaks on property taxes and reimbursements for building fees. Arizona cities largely don't give property tax abatements but allow the use of precious water resources. Virginia grants access to enormous amounts of electricity and critical infrastructure but requires data centers to pay local property taxes. Indeed, Northern Virginia cities generate up to 31% of their total tax revenue from data centers, funding fire departments, affordable housing, and other services. In the Columbus region, Business Insider located 19 data center-related deals that, together with state-level abatements, amounted to at least $750 million in forfeited tax revenue for 770 full-time jobs employed at data centers as of December 2023. The jobs generally pay well, averaging $100,000 a year in Central Ohio, according to company disclosures. At the Google data center in Columbus, salaries range from $74,000 for a data center technician to $162,000 for an operations manager. Amazon tops the list with seven deals. In one, the northwest Columbus suburb of Dublin agreed to sell Amazon 66 acres, which the city valued at $100,000 an acre, for $1 in total. Amazon agreed to pay the farmers previously leasing the land up to $40,000 total to abandon their soybeans and corn crops and terminate the lease. It told Dublin it expected to hire 25 full-time workers by the end of 2018, a nonbinding projection. In contrast, Amazon projected that it would hire 1,000 Ohioans at a new fulfillment center in Canton several years later — without taking any local property tax abatements or state incentives. Amazon's Hurst said the company works hard to create every job it projects. The deals keep coming, from Batavia, New York, to Meridian, Mississippi. Nathan M. Jensen, a professor at the University of Texas at Austin who studies regional tax incentive programs, said cities are better off sitting these deals out. Communities throw everything they can at tech companies, yet when the costs of lost tax revenue and escalating electricity prices are factored against what the communities get back in jobs, revenue, and prestige, "there's just no evidence that you're going to benefit from that data center," he said. If data center developers threaten to walk from cities that refuse to compete for these deals, Jensen's advice is blunt: "Let 'em walk." Jensen said data centers were shaping up like professional sports stadiums, where cities give millions in tax revenue savings in exchange for temporary construction jobs and minimal economic impact. Construction of data centers generally lasts one to two years, or sometimes longer, and many construction jobs run for only part of that period. In Virginia, one analysis found that about 80% of jobs from data centers created over a recent two-year period were in construction. And the numbers of such data-center-supported jobs cited in this year's Data Center Coalition report may be misleading, multiple economists and researchers who study incentives told Business Insider. Timothy Bartik, a senior economist at the W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, a not-for-profit organization focused on reducing unemployment, said his own study suggests job numbers in the high-tech sector, like data centers, could be less than half of industry estimates. Microsoft estimated last year that a campus with six data centers that it is building outside Cheyenne, Wyoming, would have 1,005 jobs at peak construction, falling to 335 full-time employees and contractors by the end of next year. At a construction project in Columbus for the data center operator Cologix, one contractor, Baker Concrete Construction, had 63 people on payroll. Those jobs lasted an average of 6 ½ weeks. Cologix said that overall the site had an average of 146 workers during the project's construction. Incentive packages often spell out how many jobs a company commits to creating in exchange for its tax breaks. Data center companies generally commit to deliver only the jobs inside their facilities in exchange for their tax breaks — not the construction and other ancillary jobs they say their projects create. Based on what is actually promised in such deals, those jobs can be expensive for local governments. Business Insider identified five deals in Ohio where, as of December 2023, each long-term job in the data centers cost over $1 million in abated taxes over the life of the deal. An Amazon data center in Hilliard had saved at least $195 million in state and local taxes as of December 2023, according to annual disclosures, driving the price of each job to over $1 million in abated taxes. New Albany, Ohio, garnered 98 jobs at a Meta data center, but forfeited $189.6 million in state and local taxes as of the end of 2023 — making each job worth about $1.9 million in foregone tax revenue. "We disagree with this way of thinking about the benefits we bring to communities," Amazon's Hurst said, adding that it benefits communities in ways beyond direct job creation, such as spending with local businesses and funding job-training efforts. A Meta spokesperson said it helps communities where it operates through grants and partnerships. The Data Center Coalition spokesperson said that focusing on jobs inside data centers understates the impact on service providers and suppliers, such as electricians, HVAC manufacturers, and portable sanitation companies. Companies are still required to make yearly payments to the cities in lieu of property taxes to help ensure minimum contributions to the communities, which Business Insider incorporated into our cost-per-job calculations. Meta, for example, paid $21.8 million in total to New Albany as of December 2022. A spokesperson for New Albany said the payments ensure "data centers contribute meaningfully to the community, even with tax abatements in place." And tech companies often sweeten the deals by promising to invest in education programs to upskill local workers. Amazon, for example, donated $25,000 and some equipment two years ago to the Tolles Career & Technical Center in Plain City, Ohio, to support the school's IT and cybersecurity training programs, which include a four-week training program for entry-level data center workers. At the nearby Columbus State Community College, the company pledged $50,000 in scholarships for a new data center technician certificate program. The ultrapowerful computer chips crammed into data centers consume enormous amounts of power. A 2024 Department of Energy report estimates their electricity use, driven by the AI boom, could soon command as much as 12% of total US electricity use, from just over 4% in 2023. Data centers are getting breaks on that, too — which residents and other businesses are helping pay for. From 2020 through last year, Ohio data centers' load on the grid rose sixfold. By 2030, American Electric Power Ohio, the state's largest electricity provider, expects to grow by another 700% to reach 5,000 megawatts, enough to power at least 2 million homes. If all hookup requests across more than 90 planned data center sites in Ohio are approved, AEP Ohio told regulators, demand could skyrocket to over 30,000 megawatts. Since 2017, Ohio regulators have authorized multiple 10-year electricity rate subsidies for data center developers, reducing power costs for tech companies in exchange for their promises of new jobs. Other AEP customers have to pay for the shortfall. Matt Schilling, a spokesperson for the Public Utilities Commission of Ohio, said in an email to Business Insider that while the commission had approved some discounted rates for data centers, it had denied other applications for such arrangements. At the same time, AEP has proposed spending at least $850 million in new or upgraded grid infrastructure and power plants to serve data centers, and another $350 million in other upgrades to support Central Ohio's extreme demand growth, according to filings. Ratepayers across Ohio foot the bill for this too, as AEP spreads the costs across all customers. Walmart, one of Ohio's largest employers, said last June that an increasingly expensive electricity bill — owing partly to data centers' demand — imperiled its continued expansion in the state. That warning came in a filing supporting the utility's recent proposition to increase tariffs and regulations on data center customers. A Data Center Coalition representative warned regulators in 2024 that those proposed tariffs and restrictions in Ohio could "depress the growth of an important emerging industry." The rate case remains ongoing. Regulators across the US have offered similar deals to subsidize data centers' electricity use, shifting billions of dollars of costs to all ratepayers, including residential customers. Regulators last year OK'd Georgia Power to construct an estimated $300 million 35-mile high-voltage transmission line and a new substation for a QTS data center near Atlanta. And this year, South Carolina regulators authorized Duke Energy to invest $66.5 million to upgrade a transmission line to serve a new QTS data center. The utilities will recoup their investments by increasing electricity bills for all their customers. Duke Energy said it follows federal rules in allocating upgrade costs. South Carolina's regulator declined to comment and Georgia Power and that state's regulator didn't respond. A QTS spokesperson said it pays for all utility infrastructure dedicated to its data centers "to ensure no impact to residential rates." "Utilities can fund discounts to Big Tech by socializing their costs through electricity prices charged to the public," a 2025 Harvard Law study of regulatory proceedings about utility rates for data centers found. Utilities profit, the study said, by "forcing the public to pay for infrastructure designed to supply a handful of exceedingly wealthy corporations." Amazon, Microsoft, and Google told Business Insider they were committed to paying their full share for infrastructure serving their power needs. Tech companies and industry advocates say that other factors, such as electric vehicles, also are driving electricity growth and that the transition to renewable power drives up electricity costs. To estimate the amount of power data centers demand nationwide, Business Insider used data from the air permits issued to data center backup generators. (See here for more on Business Insider's methodology.) If every data center that's been issued a permit comes online, Business Insider estimates data centers' total electricity use across the country could reach between 149.6 terawatt-hours and 239.3 terawatt-hours a year. Business Insider's low-end estimate is roughly equivalent to the state of Ohio's electricity needs in 2023, and on the high end, is nearly as much power as the entire state of Florida used that same year. A 2024 federal report estimated US data centers' electricity use could reach the high end of Business Insider's estimate by 2026. A 2024 report to Virginia's legislature found that data centers had historically paid their fair share of transmission upgrade costs but warned their sharply escalating electricity needs "will likely increase system costs for all customers, including non-data center customers." Last July, Dominion Energy, Virginia's largest utility provider, asked regulators to approve a $23 million grid infrastructure investment billed across ratepayers, a request that is still pending. Regulatory staff said the investment was likely needed just for a single data center customer. Months later, Dominion disclosed that it would need to roughly double its electricity generation by 2039 primarily to meet meteoric data center demand and new planned renewable energy capacity. Dominion estimates the planned expansion could cost up to $103 billion, increasing residential electricity bills by as much as 50%. Aaron Ruby, a Dominion spokesperson, told Business Insider that the company had asked regulators to approve additional consumer protections to shield ratepayers from shouldering costs incurred by large customers like data centers. The planned increase in power bills is primarily driven by the utility's transition to carbon-free power generation, as is required by state law, Ruby wrote. In Virginia, too, Walmart objected. "Electricity is a significant operating cost for retailers such as Walmart," Lisa Perry, Walmart's director of utility partnerships, told regulators in February 2025, warning that increasing electricity rates would harm Walmart's investment in Virginia. Andy Farmer, a spokesperson for the Virginia State Corporation Commission, said that data centers affected all the state's utilities, not just Dominion. Data centers' ballooning power consumption leaves other businesses, residents, and utility regulators in a bind: Either pay to expand capacity for the tech companies, or risk going without enough power to attract other new business. In Indiana, the River Ridge Property Owners' Association in Clark County told state regulators in 2024 that a single Meta data center project had bled nearly all remaining power from the grid. Meta promised at least 50 high-paying permanent jobs at the site and hundreds of construction jobs, but the community would have no available electricity to attract other prospective companies investing in the area for at least four years. "It is possible these data centers ultimately restrict, rather than foster, additional economic development," a representative of the Citizens Action Coalition of Indiana, a consumer and environmental advocacy organization, told state regulators. By 2030, the representative said, "just a few" data centers used for applications like AI will use "more electricity than all 6.8 million Hoosiers use at their homes." Walmart representatives told Ohio regulators last year that data centers' massive electricity use threatened the company's planned rollout of electric vehicle charging locations at its retail locations. "Growth in data center development is an economic boon for Ohioans," Google representatives told regulators this year, adding that the facilities were "pivotal in establishing the state as a leading technology hub." Walmart argues that it brings more jobs and other benefits to the local economy — a claim supported by research from AEP Ohio. The utility calculated that each megawatt allocated to traditional commercial and industrial customers like Walmart supported at least 25 jobs. Every megawatt used by a data center, the utility said, supports less than one job. About the data: Business Insider used air permits issued to data center backup generators to identify facility location and ownership, and estimate facility power use. We received permits from all but four states, plus Washington, DC. Read more about how we investigated the impact of data center growth here. Reporting: Hannah Beckler, Dakin Campbell, Daniel Geiger, Rosemarie Ho, Narimes Parakul, Adam Rogers, Ellen Thomas Editing: Jeffrey Cane, Rosalie Chan, Jason Dean, Esther Kaplan, Jake Swearingen Research: Darren Ankrom, Schuyler Mitchell, Trey Strange, Yuheng Zhan Design and visuals: Dan DeLorenzo, Isabel Fernandez-Pujol, Jinpeng Li, Kim Nguyen, Randy Yeip, Rebecca Zisser Photography: Kendrick Brinson, John David-Richardson, Greg Kahn, Brian Palmer, Jesse Rieser Video: Robert Leslie, Gary Moon, Marco Secci Copy editing: Mark Abadi, Kevin Kaplan Read the original article on Business Insider