Final 2025 Tony Awards winner odds in all 26 categories, including last-minute Best Actress in a Musical flip to Audra McDonald

After five weeks of furious debate since Tony Award nominations were announced, over 1,000 people have made their winner predictions at Gold Derby. New musical Maybe Happy Ending will lead all productions with six victories, while smash comedy Oh, Mary! will win the most trophies of any play with five. Buena Vista Social Club, Sunset Boulevard, and Stranger Things: The First Shadow will all claim multiple prizes, too.
The category with the most fluctuation in our odds heading into the Tony ceremony is the highly coveted trophy for Best Actress in a Musical. Six-time Tony winner Audra McDonald had been leading our odds for her performance in Gypsy since the nominations were announced, until Sunset Boulevard's Nicole Scherzinger took the lead for the first time last week. But on Thursday, McDonald pulled ahead again, buoyed by her recent victory at the Drama Desk Awards and various Tony voter surveys noting that she has a narrow advantage, likely due to the Patti LuPone controversy.
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Before the 2025 Tony winners are announced on Sunday on CBS and Paramount+, review our official odds below — which are derived from predictions by our experts, editors, and users — in all 26 categories. Our predicted winners are denoted in gold. Agree or disagree with these odds? There's still time to make your predictions at Gold Derby.
BEST MUSICAL 1. — 29/20 2. Death Becomes Her — 9/2 3. Dead Outlaw — 5/1 4. Buena Vista Social Club — 7/1 5. Operation Mincemeat — 8/1
BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL 1. — 31/20 2. Gypsy — 57/20 3. Floyd Collins — 4/1 4. Pirates! The Penzance Musical — 11/2
BEST ACTRESS (MUSICAL) 1. Audra McDonald, — 47/20 2. Nicole Scherzinger, Sunset Boulevard — 12/5 3. Jasmine Amy Rogers, Boop! The Musical — 9/2 4. Jennifer Simard, Death Becomes Her — 7/1 5. Megan Hilty, Death Becomes Her — 8/1
BEST ACTOR (MUSICAL) 1. Darren Criss, — 16/5 2. Jonathan Groff, Just in Time — 4/1 3. Tom Francis, Sunset Boulevard — 5/1 4. Jeremy Jordan, Floyd Collins — 5/1 5. Andrew Durand, Dead Outlaw — 7/1 6. James Monroe Iglehart, A Wonderful World: The Louis Armstrong Musical — 9/1
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL) 1. Natalie Venetia Belcon, — 8/5 2. Joy Woods, Gypsy — 9/2 3. Justina Machado, Real Women Have Curves: The Musical — 5/1 4. Julia Knitel, Dead Outlaw — 6/1 5. Gracie Lawrence, Just in Time — 8/1
BEST FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL) 1. Jak Malone, — 29/20 2. Danny Burstein, Gypsy — 4/1 3. Jeb Brown, Dead Outlaw — 11/2 4. Taylor Trensch, Floyd Collins — 13/2 5. Brooks Ashmanskas, Smash — 7/1
BEST DIRECTOR (MUSICAL) 1. — 39/20 2. Sunset Boulevard — 57/20 3. Dead Outlaw — 11/2 4. Death Becomes Her — 13/2 5. Buena Vista Social Club — 17/2
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE 1. — 13/8 2. Dead Outlaw — 37/10 3. Death Becomes Her — 11/2 4. Operation Mincemeat — 6/1 5. Real Women Have Curves: The Musical — 17/2
BEST MUSICAL BOOK 1. — 46/25 2. Dead Outlaw — 19/5 3. Operation Mincemeat — 9/1 4. Death Becomes Her — 6/1 5. Buena Vista Social Club — 17/2
BEST ORCHESTRATIONS 1. — 17/10 2. Just in Time — 4/1 3. Maybe Happy Ending — 9/2 4. Sunset Boulevard — 6/1 5. Floyd Collins — 8/1
BEST CHOREOGRAPHY 1. — 17/10 2. Boop! The Musical — 17/5 3. Smash — 11/2 4. Death Becomes Her — 13/2 5. Gypsy — 15/2
BEST SCENIC DESIGN (MUSICAL) 1. — 31/20 2. Death Becomes Her — 9/2 3. Swept Away — 11/2 4. Just in Time — 6/1 5. Buena Vista Social Club — 8/1
BEST COSTUME DESIGN (MUSICAL) 1. — 13/8 2. Boop! The Musical — 7/2 3. Buena Vista Social Club — 5/1 4. Just in Time — 7/1 5. Maybe Happy Ending — 17/2
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN (MUSICAL) 1. — 29/20 2. Maybe Happy Ending — 9/2 3. Floyd Collins — 5/1 4. Death Becomes Her — 13/2 5. Buena Vista Social Club — 17/2
BEST SOUND DESIGN (MUSICAL) 1. — 39/20 2. Sunset Boulevard — 31/10 3. Just in Time — 5/1 4. Maybe Happy Ending — 15/2 5. Floyd Collins — 8/1
SEE Tony Talk: Our final winner predictions in all 26 categories, including competitive Best Actress in a Musical and Best Play Revival
BEST PLAY 1. — 7/4 2. Purpose — 82/25 3. John Proctor Is the Villain — 9/2 4. The Hills of California — 15/2 5. English — 17/2
BEST PLAY REVIVAL 1. — 7/4 2. Eureka Day — 13/5 3. Our Town — 9/2 4. Romeo + Juliet — 5/1
BEST ACTRESS (PLAY) 1. Sarah Snook, — 29/20 2. Laura Donnelly, The Hills of California — 9/2 3. Sadie Sink, John Proctor Is the Villain — 5/1 4. LaTanya Richardson Jackson, Purpose — 6/1 5. Mia Farrow, The Roommate — 8/1
BEST ACTOR (PLAY) 1. Cole Escola, — 29/10 2. Jon Michael Hill, Purpose — 9/2 3. Daniel Dae Kim, Yellow Face — 5/1 4. George Clooney, Good Night, and Good Luck — 11/2 5. Louis McCartney, Stranger Things: The First Shadow — 7/1 6. Harry Lennix, Purpose — 8/1
BEST FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY) 1. Jessica Hecht, — 11/5 2. Kara Young, Purpose — 53/20 3. Fina Strazza, John Proctor Is the Villain — 9/2 4. Marjan Neshat, English — 7/1 5. Tala Ashe, English — 8/1
BEST FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY) 1. Conrad Ricamora, — 46/25 2. Francis Jue, Yellow Face — 31/10 3. Gabriel Ebert, John Proctor Is the Villain — 5/1 4. Bob Odenkirk, Glengarry Glen Ross — 5/1 5. Glenn Davis, Purpose — 8/1
BEST DIRECTOR 1. — 39/20 2. John Proctor Is the Villain — 10/3 3. The Picture of Dorian Gray — 4/1 4. The Hills of California — 7/1 5. English — 17/2
BEST SCENIC DESIGN (PLAY) 1. — 17/10 2. Good Night, and Good Luck — 19/5 3. The Hills of California — 5/1 4. The Picture of Dorian Gray — 6/1 5. English — 17/2
BEST COSTUME DESIGN (PLAY) 1. — 41/20 2. The Picture of Dorian Gray — 11/4 3. Good Night, and Good Luck — 11/2 4. Stranger Things: The First Shadow — 13/2 5. The Hills of California — 7/1
BEST LIGHTING DESIGN (PLAY) 1. — 9/5 2. The Picture of Dorian Gray — 37/10 3. John Proctor Is the Villain — 5/1 4. Good Night, and Good Luck — 6/1 5. The Hills of California — 8/1
BEST SOUND DESIGN (PLAY) 1. — 7/4 2. The Picture of Dorian Gray — 7/2 3. John Proctor Is the Villain — 5/1 4. Good Night, and Good Luck — 13/2 5. The Hills of California — 17/2
SEE The 2025 Tony Awards: How to watch, streaming details, nominees, performers, and presenters
Maybe Happy Ending — 6 Buena Vista Social Club — 4 Sunset Boulevard — 2 Death Becomes Her — 1 Gypsy — 1 Operation Mincemeat — 1
Oh, Mary! — 5 Stranger Things: The First Shadow — 3 Eureka Day — 1 The Picture of Dorian Gray — 1 Yellow Face — 1
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Best of GoldDerby
'Maybe Happy Ending' star Darren Criss on his Tony nomination for playing a robot: 'Getting to do this is the true win'
Who Needs a Tony to Reach EGOT?
Sadie Sink on her character's 'emotional rage' in 'John Proctor Is the Villain' and her reaction to 'Stranger Things: The First Shadow'
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