US producer prices rise modest 2.6% in May with inflationary pressures still mild
WASHINGTON (AP) — U.S. wholesale prices rose modestly last month from a year earlier, another sign that inflationary pressures remain mild.
The Labor Department reported Thursday that its producer price index — which measures inflation before it its consumers — rose 2.6% in May 2024. Producer prices rose 0.1% from April to May after dropping 0.2% the month before.
Excluding volatile food and energy prices, wholesale costs were up 0.1% from April and 3% from May 2024.
The readings were slightly lower than economists had forecast.
Wholesale energy prices were unchanged, although gasoline prices rose 1.6% from April after falling the month before. Food prices at the wholesale level ticked up 0.1% after dropping 0.9% in April. Egg prices, volatile because of the bird flu, rose 1.4% following 39.3% drop in April; they are up 125% from May 2024.
The report came out a day after the Labor Department said that consumer prices rose a modest 0.1% last month from April and 2.4% from a year earlier.
Since returning to the office, Trump has rolled out 10% tariffs on nearly every country in the world as well as specific levies on steel, aluminum and autos. Importers in the United States pay the taxes and pass them along to consumers via higher prices when they can. For that reason, economists expect inflation to pick up later this year.
So far, his tariffs don't seem to have had much of an impact on prices overall. Still, Stephen Brown of Capital Economics noted that
Wholesale prices can offer an early look at where consumer inflation might be headed. Economists also watch it because some of its components, notably health care and financial services, flow into the Federal Reserve's preferred inflation gauge — the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, index.
Inflation began to flare up for the first time in decades in 2021, as the economy roared back with unexpected strength from COVID-19 lockdowns. That prompted the Fed to raise its benchmark interest rate 11 times in 2022 and 2023. The higher borrowing costs helped bring inflation down from the peaks it reached in 2022, and last year the Fed felt comfortable enough with the progress to cut rates three times.
But it has turned cautious this year while it waits to see the inflationary impact of Trump's trade policies. The central bank is expected to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next Tuesday and Wednesday.
'There is no incentive for the (Fed) to debate hiking rates in today's figures,' Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics, wrote. "In fact, if the Fed did not know that tariff increases were in the pipeline, it might even contemplate cutting rates.''
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
35 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Crude Prices Pressured on Reduced Concern About an Imminent US Strike on Iran
July WTI crude oil (CLN25) today is down -0.26 (-0.35%), and July RBOB gasoline (RBN25) is up +0.0057 (+0.25%). Crude oil and gasoline prices today are mixed, with gasoline posting a 10-1/4 month high. Today's weaker dollar is bullish for energy prices. Also, concern about the Israel-Iran conflict is bullish for crude after Bloomberg reported Thursday that US officials are preparing for a possible strike on Iran. SoftBank's Masayoshi Son Unveils $1 Trillion AI Hub Proposal for U.S. to Rival China Crude Prices Pressured on Reduced Concern About an Imminent US Strike on Iran Our exclusive Barchart Brief newsletter is your FREE midday guide to what's moving stocks, sectors, and investor sentiment - delivered right when you need the info most. Subscribe today! However, crude prices were undercut after President Trump said he would wait two weeks to give diplomacy a chance before deciding if the US should attack Iran. Crude prices were also pressured on signs that Iran is ready to negotiate after Reuters reported that the Iranian government is ready to discuss limitations on uranium enrichment. So far, Iran has not impeded ship movement through the vital Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 20% of the world's daily crude shipments. However, a French naval liaison group stated that navigational signals from over 1,000 vessels a day moving through the Strait had been disrupted due to "extreme jamming" of signals from the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas, which led to a collision of two tankers on Tuesday near the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices continue to be undercut by tariff concerns after President Trump said last Wednesday that he intends to send letters to dozens of US trading partners within one to two weeks, setting unilateral tariffs ahead of the July 9 deadline that came with his 90-day pause. A decline in crude oil held worldwide on tankers is bullish for oil prices. Vortexa reported Monday that crude oil stored on tankers that have been stationary for at least seven days fell by -7.2% w/w to 73.97 million bbl in the week ended June 13. Concern about a global oil glut is negative for crude prices. On May 31, OPEC+ agreed to a 411,000 bpd crude production hike for July after raising output by the same amount for June. Saudi Arabia has signaled that additional similar-sized increases in crude output could follow, which is viewed as a strategy to reduce oil prices and punish overproducing OPEC+ members, such as Kazakhstan and Iraq. OPEC+ is boosting output to reverse the 2-year-long production cut, gradually restoring a total of 2.2 million bpd of production. OPEC+ had previously planned to restore production between January and late 2025, but now that production cut won't be fully restored until September 2026. OPEC May crude production rose +200,000 bpd to 27.54 million bpd. Wednesday's EIA report showed that (1) US crude oil inventories as of June 13 were -10.2% below the seasonal 5-year average, (2) gasoline inventories were -1.8% below the seasonal 5-year average, and (3) distillate inventories were -16.7% below the 5-year seasonal average. US crude oil production in the week ending June 14 was unchanged w/w at 13.431 million bpd, modestly below the record high of 13.631 million bpd from the week of December 6. Baker Hughes reported last Friday that active US oil rigs in the week ending June 13 fell by -3 to a 3-3/4 year low of 439 rigs. Over the past 2-1/2 years, the number of US oil rigs has fallen from the 5-1/4 year high of 627 rigs posted in December 2022. On the date of publication, Rich Asplund did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
Yahoo
39 minutes ago
- Yahoo
'Financial fragility is deepening': Canadian credit card data for Q1 show growing strain
Signs of deteriorating credit health among the most financially vulnerable Canadians are a 'flashing signal,' credit analytics firm FICO says. New credit card data for the first quarter of 2025 show an increasing reliance on credit cards and more Canadians having trouble paying their balances, FICO says, with issues most pronounced among younger and 'thin-file' borrowers — people without much of a credit history. 'Consumers with fewer banking relationships — particularly younger individuals or those relying solely on credit products — are under increasing pressure,' FICO's report says. 'The surge in serious delinquencies among monoline borrowers' — people with credit cards issued by firms that don't offer other banking services — 'is a flashing signal: financial fragility is deepening where there is the least cushion.' Economists at financial institutions and the Bank of Canada (BoC) have been paying close attention to Canadians' spending and credit health as ongoing trade tensions with the U.S. roil the economy. In a speech in early June, BoC deputy governor Sharon Kozicki noted that credit card data is one way the Bank can better understand Canadians' 'real-time spending patterns.' FICO's data show Canadians are paying down less of their credit card balances on average, and note that 'average balances remain elevated' and are rising again from COVID-era lows, when spending was generally restrained. On average, Canadians repaid just over 47 per cent of their balances in March, down from a pandemic peak of 60 per cent in September 2022. Balances have risen to $3,098 from $2,938 during the pandemic. 'Although still below pre-pandemic highs, the recent upward trajectory signals renewed pressure on household finances, potentially from rising living costs or shifting spending habits,' FICO's report said. FICO notes that the rising balances aren't a consequence of higher spending — average monthly spending was down 4.2 per cent from the same period last year, to $1,549, which FICO says 'reflects more cautious consumer behaviour or financial constraint as households rebalance their budgets.' Overall, rates of missed payments are 'broadly stable,' FICO says, but risks are concentrated in some borrower segments. Those missing a single payment was up eight per cent from last year, which FICO says 'points to the beginning of strain among a growing portion of the population.' Among monoline borrowers, who can have lower credit ratings, FICO notes a 'key turning point' in January, when the proportion missing two or more payments hit a five-year high. 'This spike highlights sustained pressure on higher-risk segments — particularly those with limited financial history, fewer products with a financial institution, or recent entry into the credit market,' FICO's report says. John MacFarlane is a senior reporter at Yahoo Finance Canada. Follow him on X @jmacf. Download the Yahoo Finance app, available for Apple and Android.
Business Insider
41 minutes ago
- Business Insider
A Fed governor just gave Trump fresh hope in his fight against the central bank
President Donald Trump has said repeatedly this year that rates should come down. On Friday, the president got a concurring opinion from a top official inside the central bank. Fed Gov. Christopher Waller told CNBC that he believes tariffs won't have a big impact on inflation and that Powell should consider cutting rates next month. "I think we've got room to bring it down, and then we can kind of see what happens with inflation," Waller said, adding that rate cuts could be paused again if geopolitical tensions rise and push up inflation. He also said that any concerns about the labor market should be addressed sooner rather than later, and the right call would be to "move now, don't wait." Arguments over whether to cut interest rates and by how much have swirled in markets all year. Fed fund futures still imply an 83% chance of no cut in July, with the September meeting being eyed as the earliest date for a 25 basis point reduction. Recently, Trump has been more vocal about his wish for the Fed to lower borrowing costs. Vice President JD Vance has also piled on, criticizing the central bank and describing its refusal to cut interest rates as "monetary malpractice." Waller's dovish comments initially sparked a positive reaction in markets, though stocks pared most gains by late morning. S&P 500: 5,985.71, up 0.08% Dow Jones Industrial Average: 42,318.84, up 0.35% (+147.19 points) Nasdaq Composite: 19,491.52, down 0.28% Despite the blowback, Powell has been insistent on remaining in a holding pattern until the data shifts. "We believe that the current stance of monetary policy leaves us well positioned to respond in a timely way to potential economic developments," he said at the recent meeting, adding that he would have more to say after reviewing economic developments. Trump has said he wished to fire Powell, though the market balked at the prospect of political meddling and forced him to temper his comments. As for who could be the next Fed boss, betting markets see former Fed Gov. Kevin Warsh, former Trump economic advisor Judy Shelton, and current Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent as the top three most likely picks, though the highest odds show no pick before December 2025.
