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CNBC
7 hours ago
- Business
- CNBC
What it will take for stocks to make a new bear market low
The S & P 500 is less than 3% from its record high set in February, and only a recession could knock it back down, according to Ned Davis Research. "A new low would likely require a recession call," wrote chief macro strategist strategist Joe Kalish. "The economy is not currently in [a] recession and we do not foresee one in the second half of the year." Despite higher tariffs and a brewing conflict in the Middle East, the U.S. economy has remained on solid ground. The Labor Department said earlier this month that 139,000 jobs were added in May , more than expected. Kalish also pointed out that U.S. industrial production is just 0.5% away from reaching an all-time high. The S & P 500 hasn't entered bear market territory, but it came close at the height of the global trade scare. On a closing basis, the benchmark fell as much as 18.9% from its all-time high. .SPX 3M mountain SPX in past 3 months "The failure of the stock market to generate a bear market may be important because the stock market is a leading indicator of the economy," Kalish said. To be sure, some cracks have emerged in the economy . Housing starts fell more than expected in May along with retail sales . On top of that, the conflict between Israel and Iran could dampen investor sentiment if the U.S. intervenes. Elsewhere Friday morning on Wall Street, Wells Fargo upgraded Mondelez to overweight from equal weight. "We view MDLZ as one of the best execution stories in Staples, with potential to deliver superior long-term growth, driven by share gains in developed market, white space opportunities in developing markets, and a proactive M & A strategy," analyst Chris Carey wrote. "While the company is confronting historical inflation in 2025, 1) pricing execution has been strong, 2) inflation looks likely to temper in 2026, and we see a recovery of earnings ahead."
Economic Times
2 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
US weekly jobless claims fall, but still elevated
U.S. jobless claims edged down to 245,000, aligning with forecasts but remaining at the upper end of this year's range, signaling a potential slowdown in labor market momentum for June. Layoffs have risen amid economic uncertainty fueled by tariffs, while hiring remains soft. The Fed is expected to hold interest rates steady while monitoring economic impacts. Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads Tired of too many ads? Remove Ads The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, but stayed at levels consistent with a further loss of labor market momentum in claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 245,000 for the week ended June 14, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 245,000 claims for the latest report was released a day early because of the Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday on are in the upper end of their range for this year and could remain there, with non-teaching staff in some states eligible to file for unemployment benefits during the summer school some technical factors accounted for the elevation in claims, there has been a rise in layoffs, with economists saying President Donald Trump's broad tariffs had created a challenging economic environment for businesses. The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm payrolls component of June's employment Reserve officials wrapping up their two-day policy meeting on Wednesday are expected to leave the U.S. central bank's its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, where it has been since December, while monitoring the economic fallout from the import duties and the conflict between Israel and still historically low layoffs have accounted for much of the labor market stability, with the hiring side of the equation soft amid hesitancy by employers to increase headcount because of the unsettled economic environment. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 jobs in May, down from 193,000 a year next week on the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, could shed more light on the state of the labor market in so-called continuing claims dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.945 million during the week ending June 7. Recently laid off workers are struggling to find work.
Associated Press
2 days ago
- Business
- Associated Press
US unemployment ticked down, hovering at historically low levels
WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits dipped to 245,000 last week, hovering at historically low levels, the Labor Department said Wednesday. U.S. jobless claims ticked down from 250,000 the week before. Economists had expected last week's claims to match that at 250,000. The four-week average of claims, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, rose to 245,500, the highest since August 2023. The number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits the week of June 7 slid to 1.95 million. Weekly unemployment claim are a proxy for layoffs and mostly have stayed within a healthy band of 200,000 to 250,000 since the economy recovered from a brief but painful COVID-19 recession in 2020, which temporarily wiped out millions of jobs. In recent weeks, however, claims have stayed at the high end of range, adding to evidence that U.S. job market is decelerating after years of strong hiring. So far this year, employers are adding a decent but far from spectacular 124,000 jobs a month, down from an average 168,000 last year and an average of nearly 400,000 from 2021 through 2023. The hiring slowdown is partly the drawn-out result of 11 interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 and 2023. But Trump's aggressive and often-erratic trade policies — including 10% taxes on imports from almost every country on earth — are also weighing on the economy, paralyzing businesses and worrying consumers who fear they'll mean higher prices. Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics is worried that claims remain elevated compared with recent years, when employment has remained very low by historical standards. 'We believe firms have been 'hoarding' workers to ensure that they don't lay off skilled and trained workers by mistake, especially with the labor market still very close to full employment,' Weinberg wrote. 'With uncertainty still high ... companies have remained hesitant about layoffs. That may be changing.'' The Fed, satisfied that an inflation was coming down, cut rates three times last year. But the central bank has turned cautious in 2025, worried that Trump's tariffs will rekindle inflationary pressures. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged as it wraps up a two-day meeting Wednesday.
CTV News
2 days ago
- Business
- CTV News
U.S. unemployment claims dipped to 245,000 last week, hovering at historically low levels
WASHINGTON — The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits dipped to 245,000 last week, hovering at historically low levels, the U.S. Labor Department said Wednesday. U.S. jobless claims ticked down from 250,000 the week before. Economists had expected last week's claims to match that at 250,000. The four-week average of claims, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, rose to 245,500, the highest since August 2023. The number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits the week of June 7 slid to 1.95 million. Weekly unemployment claim are a proxy for layoffs and mostly have stayed within a healthy band of 200,000 to 250,000 since the economy recovered from a brief but painful COVID-19 recession in 2020, which temporarily wiped out millions of jobs. In recent weeks, however, claims have stayed at the high end of range, adding to evidence that U.S. job market is decelerating after years of strong hiring. So far this year, employers are adding a decent but far from spectacular 124,000 jobs a month, down from an average 168,000 last year and an average of nearly 400,000 from 2021 through 2023. The hiring slowdown is partly the drawn-out result of 11 interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve in 2022 and 2023. But Trump's aggressive and often-erratic trade policies — including ten per cent taxes on imports from almost every country on earth — are also weighing on the economy, paralyzing businesses and worrying consumers who fear they'll mean higher prices. Carl Weinberg of High Frequency Economics is worried that claims remain elevated compared with recent years, when employment has remained very low by historical standards. 'We believe firms have been 'hoarding' workers to ensure that they don't lay off skilled and trained workers by mistake, especially with the labor market still very close to full employment,' Weinberg wrote. 'With uncertainty still high ... companies have remained hesitant about layoffs. That may be changing.'' The Fed, satisfied that an inflation was coming down, cut rates three times last year. But the central bank has turned cautious in 2025, worried that Trump's tariffs will rekindle inflationary pressures. The Fed is expected to leave rates unchanged as it wraps up a two-day meeting Wednesday. --- Paul Wiseman, The Associated Press
Yahoo
2 days ago
- Business
- Yahoo
US weekly jobless claims fall, but still elevated
WASHINGTON (Reuters) -The number of Americans filing new applications for unemployment benefits fell last week, but stayed at levels consistent with a further loss of labor market momentum in June. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 245,000 for the week ended June 14, the Labor Department said on Wednesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast 245,000 claims for the latest week. The report was released a day early because of the Juneteenth National Independence Day holiday on Thursday. Claims are in the upper end of their range for this year and could remain there, with non-teaching staff in some states eligible to file for unemployment benefits during the summer school holidays. Though some technical factors accounted for the elevation in claims, there has been a rise in layoffs, with economists saying President Donald Trump's broad tariffs had created a challenging economic environment for businesses. The claims data covered the period during which the government surveyed businesses for the nonfarm payrolls component of June's employment report. Federal Reserve officials wrapping up their two-day policy meeting on Wednesday are expected to leave the U.S. central bank's its benchmark overnight interest rate in the 4.25%-4.50% range, where it has been since December, while monitoring the economic fallout from the import duties and the conflict between Israel and Iran. The still historically low layoffs have accounted for much of the labor market stability, with the hiring side of the equation soft amid hesitancy by employers to increase headcount because of the unsettled economic environment. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 139,000 jobs in May, down from 193,000 a year ago. Data next week on the number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, could shed more light on the state of the labor market in June. The so-called continuing claims dropped 6,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.945 million during the week ending June 7. Recently laid off workers are struggling to find work. (Reporting By Lucia Mutikani; Editing by Chizu Nomiyama)
