The pivotal British and Irish Lions pick that will set the tone for Australia tour

A great deal has changed in the 137 years since a rag-tag band of nascent rugby players first set sail for the Antipodes. The 1888 tour of New Zealand and Australia, retrospectively considered the first in the Lions lineage, spanned nearly six months and featured 35 games, beginning and ending on the SS Kaikoura in the docks of Gravesend, with a travelling party that included the only Manxman ever to wear the British and Irish colours. Initial tour captain Robert Seddon did not even make it home, meeting a sad demise after running into difficulty while sculling on the Hunter River.
One does not even look that far back to chart the changing course of a perhaps antiquated concept. As recently as 1997, those selected were left waiting for a Lions letter, with a mischievous Austin Healey hiding the invite of flatmate Will Greenwood, leaving the then uncapped centre to find out about the honour of a lifetime from a Sky Sports reporter in the Welford Road car park.
Things will be rather different on Thursday afternoon as the 2025 hopefuls discover their fate. Across a two-hour live show at the O2 Arena in front of perhaps more than 2,000 fans, Andy Farrell's squad will be unveiled in the latest step in the rampant commercialisation of one of rugby's best-performing and enduring brands. Alongside those who have paid for the privilege to hear 38 or so names read out by Ieuan Evans, a great many more will tune in via the Lions' broadcast partners for a grand meeting that could have been an email; an administrative necessity given the pomp and platform that the quadrennial adventure demands.
Just one of the selection will be in the arena in full knowledge of their fate, the Lions captain – presumed to be England lock Maro Itoje – joining Farrell and Evans to begin the considerable duties expected of the chosen pride leader. Waiting anxiously elsewhere will be the 70 or so thought to have been under consideration by the management team. While the dissemination of selection may have changed over the years, making this assembly remains one of the sport's greatest honours.
For many, it will be a once-in-a-lifetime chance; for Taulupe Faletau and Owen Farrell, a fourth tour is perhaps within reach. News of recent days has only strengthened Faletau's case. The desperately unfortunate timing of the injury to Caelan Doris is a bitter blow for the Ireland No 8, presumed captain-elect mere months ago but now seemingly likely to miss the trip entirely. While Seddon would perhaps chuckle from on high at describing this as the cruellest of twists, it is a grand shame for Doris – even if Itoje had perhaps edged ahead in a battle to be named skipper. Faletau, England's Tom Willis or Scotland's Jack Dempsey are well placed if Farrell can find a place for another No 8 among the scattered scavenging sevens likely to form the bulk of his back-row group.
The case of the other potential four-time tourist is rather more interesting. The Owen question has loomed over his father ever since Andy's announcement as Lions head coach, unfair nepotistic suggestions faced many times before by the former England assistant and yet brought fully into focus again. The thought was that Farrell Sr might get ahead of the story, removing the millstone from his neck by taking his son off the table. There would have been reasons to do so: Farrell's injury woes and mixed form at Racing 92, for one; his taking of an international sabbatical before moving to Paris, another.
Yet no suggestion that the 33-year-old is out of contention has been broadcast or briefed. The younger Farrell would clearly add plenty were he to earn inclusion again; his ability to play 10 or 12 would be valuable on a trip like this, also his experience and competitive edge. Both Johnny Sexton, an assistant for this tour, and Finn Russell have spoken of how much they enjoyed working with the Englishman – his ability to drive standards would no doubt be desirable to a coaching team that includes a former half-back partner in Richard Wigglesworth.
No 10 is always an area of intense debate in these infrequent elections, yet this is perhaps the most intriguing group yet. Of the four constituent unions, only one began and ended the Six Nations with the same fly-half in harness – whatever Russell's differences with Sexton, it would be a serious shock if the Scot is not named.
Fin Smith's coming-of-age continued with an ideal final audition in an Investec Champions Cup call-back, the Northampton playmaker outshining Leinster rival Sam Prendergast, perhaps up for the same part. One cannot rule out either of Smith's compatriots, namesake Marcus and a resurgent George Ford, while there is also late momentum behind Tom Jordan – a United Rugby Championship (URC) winner at 10 but offering potentially vital versatility.
The task of projecting Farrell's thinking is tricky for several reasons, an occasionally unconventional selector likely to throw a curveball or two. Equally, it is slightly unclear exactly how many players he will pick. Take too many – as Clive Woodward did in 2005 – and the group can become unruly and unwieldy; take too few, as Warren Gatland eventually concluded he had in 2017, and the head coach risks an unedifying repeat of the 'Geography Six' saga, and accusations of cheapening the shirt.
Also at the forefront of Farrell's mind will be a few injury frets. Can he afford to take someone like Immanuel Feyi-Waboso, yet to play in 2025 but perhaps back in action pre-tour? Mack Hansen, Duhan van der Merwe and Blair Kinghorn are all currently sidelined with issues of varying severity – availability can be one's best ability at this stage. For those on the outside looking in, come Thursday afternoon, staying sharp would be wise: it is, unfortunately, statistically likely that several of those selected fail to make it to the first Test. Any omissions need only remember the tale of Alex Corbisiero, called up as an injury replacement for Cian Healy at the urging of forwards coach Graham Rowntree in 2013 to have a pivotal impact in the Tests against the Wallabies.
All hope will not, then, be lost for those forced to digest difficult news on Thursday. But for the lucky few selected, a place in the pride will be an honour to last a lifetime.

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