It's a rerun, not to be seen again
"They lied," said Donald Trump in 2016, running for the Republican presidential nomination against the neo-cons in his own party who had started the "forever wars" in Afghanistan and Iraq.
"They said there were weapons of mass destruction. There were none. And they knew there were none."
Invading the wrong country is generally a big mistake, and everybody outside the United States knew it (except maybe Britain's Tony Blair).
However, President George W. Bush had to believe in Saddam Hussein's alleged "weapons of mass destruction" so he could invade Iraq and expunge the blame for having let 9/11 happen on his watch.
(Yes, I know Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with 9/11. Don't get tangled up in the details. The point is that Bush managed to persuade Americans of a link between Saddam and 9/11.)
Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu is in a similar position. He not only failed to prevent Hamas from carrying out the massacre of October 7, 2023, he had previously allowed a flow of cash from Qatar into the Gaza Strip in order to ensure the Palestinians remained divided between Hamas and Fatah.
Bibi must erase his guilt for that failure if he is to have a political future, and even the expulsion of the Palestinian population from Gaza (now being prepared) may not be enough.
Whereas the destruction of the alleged Iranian nuclear weapons threat, and perhaps of the entire Iranian regime, could earn him full absolution within Israel.
Netanyahu is genuinely obsessed about such weapons, but there is also always a tactical, political element in his warnings.
He said Iran was "three to five years away from a bomb" in 1992. He said it again in 1995. It was allegedly only one year away in 2012, and it has always been "imminent" since 2019.
Which brings us to the congressional testimony of Tulsi Gabard, Trump's own Director of National Intelligence, on March 26 of this year.
She said that the US intelligence community continued to assess that Iran was "not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei [had] not authorised the nuclear weapons programme that he suspended in 2003."
Finally, an American official who thinks she is working for her country, not for her party — but then, she is also a combat veteran (Iraq) and a lieutenant-colonel in the National Guard. She takes her job seriously, and does not fall for all that guff about an Iranian nuclear weapons programme.
There once was such a programme. It began in the mid-1980s, when the fledgling Islamic Republic of Iran was invaded by Iraq (with US encouragement and support).
It was cancelled after the US invaded Iraq and found no nuclear weapons there in 2003, and to the best of our knowledge it has not been restarted since then.
All Middle Eastern governments know that they would face a pre-emptive Israeli nuclear strike if they ever sought nuclear weapons of their own. (Israel has had nuclear weapons since the late 1960s and now has a hundred or more, deliverable by planes, missiles and submarines.) The idea that Iran is working on such weapons now is frankly ridiculous.
Iran first enriched uranium to 3.5% as part of its civil nuclear power programme in 2006. Suspicion that it was exceeding that level led to international trade sanctions, but those were eased when it signed a deal in 2015 that limited its enrichment to 3.67% (far below weapons grade) and opened all its facilities to inspection.
It never violated that deal, but Donald Trump pulled the US out of the treaty in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Tehran.
After waiting a couple of years Iran began inching up its enrichment level as a kind of counter-pressure, and by last year it was enriching at 60%. (Weapons grade is 90%.)
The whole show is performative nonsense. Even if Iran had weapons-grade uranium now, fabricating warheads, testing the weapons and devising a reliable means of delivery (it has nothing suitable now) would take years.
Whereas if Israel really believed Tehran were close to success now, it would have nuked all of Iran's facilities six months ago.
Donald Trump has long known that Bibi was trying to sucker him into a joint war against Iran, and never fell for it before.
Why now? Probably because he just can't resist the opportunity to strut around emoting on the stage. Look at his recent tweets.
"We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there — We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now."
And a couple of minutes later: "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!"
They won't surrender. This will be Trump's own forever war.
■Gwynne Dyer is an independent London journalist.
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