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History in reruns
History in reruns

Winnipeg Free Press

time11 hours ago

  • Politics
  • Winnipeg Free Press

History in reruns

Opinion I've seen this movie already. I don't want to see it again. 'They lied,' said U.S. President Donald Trump in 2016, when he was running for the Republican presidential nomination against the neocons in his own party who had started the 'forever wars' in Afghanistan and Iraq. 'They said there were weapons of mass destruction. There were none. And they knew there were none.' Invading the wrong country is generally a big mistake, and everybody outside the United States knew it (except maybe Britain's Tony Blair). However, then-president George W. Bush had to believe in Saddam Hussein's alleged 'weapons of mass destruction' so that he could invade Iraq and expunge the blame for having let 9/11 happen on his watch. (Yes, I know Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with 9/11. Don't get tangled up in the details. The point is that Bush managed to persuade Americans of a link between Saddam and 9/11.) Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin (Bibi) Netanyahu is in a similar position. He not only failed to prevent Hamas from carrying out the massacre of Oct. 7, 2023; he had previously allowed a flow of cash from Qatar into the Gaza Strip in order to ensure that the Palestinians remained divided between Hamas and Fatah. Bibi must erase his guilt for that failure if he is to have a political future, and even the expulsion of the Palestinian population from Gaza (now being prepared) may not be enough. Whereas the destruction of the alleged Iranian nuclear weapons threat, and perhaps of the entire Iranian regime, could earn him full absolution within Israel. Netanyahu is genuinely obsessed about such weapons, but there is also always a tactical, political element in his warnings. He said Iran was 'three to five years away from a bomb' in 1992. He said it again in 1995. It was allegedly only one year away in 2012, and it has always been 'imminent' since 2019. Which brings us to the congressional testimony of Tulsi Gabbard, Trump's own director of national intelligence, on March 26 of this year. She said that the U.S. intelligence community 'continues to assess that Iran is not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei has not authorized the nuclear weapons program that he suspended in 2003.' Finally, an American official who thinks she is working for her country, not for her party — but then she is also a combat veteran (Iraq) and a lieutenant-colonel in the National Guard. She takes her job seriously, and does not fall for all that guff about an Iranian nuclear weapons program. There once was such a program. It began in the mid-1980s, when the fledgling Islamic Republic of Iran was invaded by Iraq (with U.S. encouragement and support). It was cancelled after the U.S. invaded Iraq and found no nuclear weapons there in 2003, and to the best of our knowledge, it has not been restarted since then. All Middle Eastern governments know that they would face a pre-emptive Israeli nuclear strike if they ever sought nuclear weapons of their own. (Israel has had nuclear weapons since the late 1960s and now has a hundred or more, deliverable by planes, missiles and submarines.) The idea that Iran is working on such weapons now is frankly ridiculous. The whole show is performative nonsense. Even if Iran had weapons-grade uranium now, fabricating warheads, testing the weapons and devising a reliable means of delivery (it has nothing suitable now) would take years. Whereas if Israel really believed Tehran were close to success now, it would have nuked all of Iran's facilities six months ago. Trump has long known that Bibi was trying to sucker him into a joint war against Iran, and never fell for it before. Why now? Probably because he just can't resist the opportunity to strut around emoting on the stage. Look at his recent tweets. 'We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there — We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.' And a couple of minutes later: 'UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!' They won't surrender. This will be Trump's own 'forever war.' Gwynne Dyer's new book is Intervention Earth: Life-Saving Ideas from the World's Climate Engineers.

It's a rerun, not to be seen again
It's a rerun, not to be seen again

Otago Daily Times

timea day ago

  • Politics
  • Otago Daily Times

It's a rerun, not to be seen again

"They lied," said Donald Trump in 2016, running for the Republican presidential nomination against the neo-cons in his own party who had started the "forever wars" in Afghanistan and Iraq. "They said there were weapons of mass destruction. There were none. And they knew there were none." Invading the wrong country is generally a big mistake, and everybody outside the United States knew it (except maybe Britain's Tony Blair). However, President George W. Bush had to believe in Saddam Hussein's alleged "weapons of mass destruction" so he could invade Iraq and expunge the blame for having let 9/11 happen on his watch. (Yes, I know Saddam Hussein had nothing to do with 9/11. Don't get tangled up in the details. The point is that Bush managed to persuade Americans of a link between Saddam and 9/11.) Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin "Bibi" Netanyahu is in a similar position. He not only failed to prevent Hamas from carrying out the massacre of October 7, 2023, he had previously allowed a flow of cash from Qatar into the Gaza Strip in order to ensure the Palestinians remained divided between Hamas and Fatah. Bibi must erase his guilt for that failure if he is to have a political future, and even the expulsion of the Palestinian population from Gaza (now being prepared) may not be enough. Whereas the destruction of the alleged Iranian nuclear weapons threat, and perhaps of the entire Iranian regime, could earn him full absolution within Israel. Netanyahu is genuinely obsessed about such weapons, but there is also always a tactical, political element in his warnings. He said Iran was "three to five years away from a bomb" in 1992. He said it again in 1995. It was allegedly only one year away in 2012, and it has always been "imminent" since 2019. Which brings us to the congressional testimony of Tulsi Gabard, Trump's own Director of National Intelligence, on March 26 of this year. She said that the US intelligence community continued to assess that Iran was "not building a nuclear weapon and Supreme Leader Khamenei [had] not authorised the nuclear weapons programme that he suspended in 2003." Finally, an American official who thinks she is working for her country, not for her party — but then, she is also a combat veteran (Iraq) and a lieutenant-colonel in the National Guard. She takes her job seriously, and does not fall for all that guff about an Iranian nuclear weapons programme. There once was such a programme. It began in the mid-1980s, when the fledgling Islamic Republic of Iran was invaded by Iraq (with US encouragement and support). It was cancelled after the US invaded Iraq and found no nuclear weapons there in 2003, and to the best of our knowledge it has not been restarted since then. All Middle Eastern governments know that they would face a pre-emptive Israeli nuclear strike if they ever sought nuclear weapons of their own. (Israel has had nuclear weapons since the late 1960s and now has a hundred or more, deliverable by planes, missiles and submarines.) The idea that Iran is working on such weapons now is frankly ridiculous. Iran first enriched uranium to 3.5% as part of its civil nuclear power programme in 2006. Suspicion that it was exceeding that level led to international trade sanctions, but those were eased when it signed a deal in 2015 that limited its enrichment to 3.67% (far below weapons grade) and opened all its facilities to inspection. It never violated that deal, but Donald Trump pulled the US out of the treaty in 2018 and reimposed sanctions on Tehran. After waiting a couple of years Iran began inching up its enrichment level as a kind of counter-pressure, and by last year it was enriching at 60%. (Weapons grade is 90%.) The whole show is performative nonsense. Even if Iran had weapons-grade uranium now, fabricating warheads, testing the weapons and devising a reliable means of delivery (it has nothing suitable now) would take years. Whereas if Israel really believed Tehran were close to success now, it would have nuked all of Iran's facilities six months ago. Donald Trump has long known that Bibi was trying to sucker him into a joint war against Iran, and never fell for it before. Why now? Probably because he just can't resist the opportunity to strut around emoting on the stage. Look at his recent tweets. "We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding. He is an easy target, but is safe there — We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now." And a couple of minutes later: "UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!" They won't surrender. This will be Trump's own forever war. ■Gwynne Dyer is an independent London journalist.

Iranians buying supplies in Iraq tell of fear, shortages back home
Iranians buying supplies in Iraq tell of fear, shortages back home

New Indian Express

time2 days ago

  • Politics
  • New Indian Express

Iranians buying supplies in Iraq tell of fear, shortages back home

PENJWEN: Near the once-bustling Iraqi border crossing of Bashmakh, Iranian driver Fatah stocked up on rice, sugar and tea, staples that have become increasingly hard to get back home. Fatah -- who like others in this story is being identified by a pseudonym -- was among dozens of truck drivers waiting impatiently to cross back into Iran from Iraq's northern Kurdistan region, hauling not only their commercial cargo, but also essential goods for their families after days of Israeli attacks. AFP spoke with at least 30 Iranians near the Bashmakh crossing. They all refused to be interviewed on camera, and the few who agreed to describe life back home asked to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals back in Iran. "There are shortages of rice, bread, sugar and tea," Fatah said Tuesday. Finding fuel has also become a major problem, with long queues of cars waiting hours in front of gas stations hoping the fuel did not run out, the 40-year-old driver added.

Israel-Iran conflict: Iranians buying supplies in Iraq tell of fear, shortages back home
Israel-Iran conflict: Iranians buying supplies in Iraq tell of fear, shortages back home

Khaleej Times

time2 days ago

  • Politics
  • Khaleej Times

Israel-Iran conflict: Iranians buying supplies in Iraq tell of fear, shortages back home

Near the once-bustling Iraqi border crossing of Bashmakh, Iranian driver Fatah stocked up on rice, sugar and tea, staples that have become increasingly hard to get back home. Fatah — who like others in this story is being identified by a pseudonym — was among dozens of truck drivers waiting impatiently to cross back into Iran from Iraq's northern Kurdistan region, hauling not only their commercial cargo, but also essential goods for their families after days of Israeli attacks. AFP spoke with at least 30 Iranians near the Bashmakh crossing. They all refused to be interviewed on camera, and the few who agreed to describe life back home asked to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals back in Iran. "There are shortages of rice, bread, sugar and tea," Fatah said on Tuesday. Finding fuel has also become a major problem, with long queues of cars waiting hours in front of gas stations hoping the fuel did not run out, the 40-year-old driver added. A long journey awaits Fatah, who must deliver his load of asphalt to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas about 1,700 kilometres away, before turning around and driving almost the same distance back to the western city of Marivan, where his family lives and which has so far been spared bombardment. But "my route passes near the Natanz nuclear facility", Fatah said, referring to one of Iran's underground uranium enrichment sites that Israel has struck several times since the start of its campaign last week. Panic buying Israel launched a devastating surprise attack on Friday targeting Iran's military and nuclear sites and killing top commanders and scientists. Israel says its attacks are aimed at preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, an ambition Tehran denies. At least 224 people, including women and children, have been killed in the Israeli strikes, according to official figures. The assault has prompted retaliatory barrages of missiles from Iran that have killed at least 24 people in Israel, according to the prime minister's office. Aram, 28, keeps calling his wife, fearing for his family's safety after they had to flee their home when a strike hit a military site nearby in the city of Sanandaj. "My family is safe, but they had to move in with relatives in a village," Aram said. His wife told him that many families who lived near military sites in the area had been similarly displaced. The father of two said the shortages back home were mostly due to panic-stricken Iranians who rushed to markets to stockpile basic supplies. 'Shocked and distraught' Back in Iran, car dealer Shwan recalled how Israeli jets struck several military sites near his city of Bukan in the west. "People are shocked and distraught, they don't know what they should do," the 35-year-old told AFP via a messaging app from inside Iran. "We have a major problem with bread shortages," he said. People were queuing at bakeries for hours to get loaves of bread, sometimes to no avail, Shwan said. "Sometimes four members of one family go around bakeries looking for bread," he added. "It is also difficult to find rice or oil," and many civil servants have not received their salaries yet, he said. Avin, a 38-year-old seamstress, told AFP via a messaging app that the war "has spread fear among residents", even though the bombs have not touched her town of Saqqez in northwest Iran. "Some families with children left to villages outside the city," she said. Like others, she fears more shortages to come. "Most of the provisions come from Tehran," which has seen a massive exodus and is also grappling with scarcity. "Because of this, the market in our city came to a standstill."

Iranians buying supplies in Iraq tell of fear, shortages back home
Iranians buying supplies in Iraq tell of fear, shortages back home

Arab News

time2 days ago

  • Politics
  • Arab News

Iranians buying supplies in Iraq tell of fear, shortages back home

PENJWEN, Iraq: Near the once-bustling Iraqi border crossing of Bashmakh, Iranian driver Fatah stocked up on rice, sugar and tea, staples that have become increasingly hard to get back home. Fatah — who like others in this story is being identified by a pseudonym — was among dozens of truck drivers waiting impatiently to cross back into Iran from Iraq's northern Kurdistan region, hauling not only their commercial cargo, but also essential goods for their families after days of Israeli attacks. AFP spoke with at least 30 Iranians near the Bashmakh crossing. They all refused to be interviewed on camera, and the few who agreed to describe life back home asked to remain anonymous for fear of reprisals back in Iran. 'There are shortages of rice, bread, sugar and tea,' Fatah said Tuesday. Finding fuel has also become a major problem, with long queues of cars waiting hours in front of gas stations hoping the fuel did not run out, the 40-year-old driver added. A long journey awaits Fatah, who must deliver his load of asphalt to the Iranian port of Bandar Abbas about 1,700 kilometers (1,060 miles) away, before turning around and driving almost the same distance back to the western city of Marivan, where his family lives and which has so far been spared bombardment. But 'my route passes near the Natanz nuclear facility,' Fatah said, referring to one of Iran's underground uranium enrichment sites that Israel has struck several times since the start of its campaign last week. Surprise attack Israel launched a devastating surprise attack on Friday targeting Iran's military and nuclear sites and killing top commanders and scientists. Israel says its attacks are aimed at preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, an ambition Tehran denies. At least 224 people, including women and children, have been killed in the Israeli strikes, according to official figures. The assault has prompted retaliatory barrages of missiles from Iran that have killed at least 24 people in Israel, according to the prime minister's office. Aram, 28, keeps calling his wife, fearing for his family's safety after they had to flee their home when a strike hit a military site nearby in the city of Sanandaj. 'My family is safe, but they had to move in with relatives in a village,' Aram said. His wife told him that many families who lived near military sites in the area had been similarly displaced. The father of two said the shortages back home were mostly due to panic-stricken Iranians who rushed to markets to stockpile basic supplies. Fear of shortages mounts Back in Iran, car dealer Shwan recalled how Israeli jets struck several military sites near his city of Bukan in the west. 'People are shocked and distraught, they don't know what they should do,' the 35-year-old told AFP via a messaging app from inside Iran. 'We have a major problem with bread shortages,' he said. People were queuing at bakeries for hours to get loaves of bread, sometimes to no avail, Shwan said. 'Sometimes four members of one family go around bakeries looking for bread,' he added. 'It is also difficult to find rice or oil,' and many civil servants have not received their salaries yet, he said. Avin, a 38-year-old seamstress, told AFP via a messaging app that the war 'has spread fear among residents,' even though the bombs have not touched her town of Saqqez in northwest Iran. 'Some families with children left to villages outside the city,' she said. Like others, she fears more shortages to come. 'Most of the provisions come from Tehran,' which has seen a massive exodus and is also grappling with scarcity. 'Because of this, the market in our city came to a standstill.'

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