Emmy odds check-up: ‘The Pitt' prognosis is positive as it creeps up on ‘Severance'

Exactly three months ago, The Pitt was in 10th place for Best Drama Series; its vital signs have been steadily improving ever since.
By March, the Max medical procedural had jumped up to sixth place in Gold Derby's odds, and by April it was in the top four. Now, as word of mouth continues to grow, The Pitt has achieved its highest placement yet at No. 2, behind only the long-standing predictions leader, Severance.
More from GoldDerby
'Étoile' editor Tim Streeto on reuniting with the Palladinos for the Prime Video ballet series
'Sentimental Value' hailed as a 'masterpiece,' the 'best movie' at the 2025 Cannes Film Festival
'The Daily Show' editor Cathy Trasborg on letting Trump supporters 'reveal themselves' in the edit: 'We just let them play out'
The Pitt stars Emmy frontrunner Noah Wyle as Dr. Michael "Robby" Robinavitch, a senior attending physician who works a 15-hour shift at Pittsburgh Trauma Medical Hospital. Each episode unfolds hourly in real time. Robby's fellow staff members include Taylor Dearden's Melissa "Mel" King, Katherine LaNasa's Dana Evans, Patrick Ball's Frank Langdon, and Shawn Hatosy's Dr. Jack Abbott.
While The Pitt gives viewers a nostalgic throwback feel to traditional broadcast dramas, Severance is celebrated for its originality and fully embraces its sci-fi weirdness. Adam Scott stars as Mark Scout, aka Mark S., an employee for the mysterious Lumon Industries who agrees to separate his work mind from his home self. His fellow severed workers include Zach Cherry as Dylan G., Britt Lower as Helly R., and John Turturro as Irving B.
Three other genre shows appear in Gold Derby's top eight: zombie apocalypse drama The Last of Us in third place, Star Wars spin-off Andor in seventh place, and survival horror series Squid Game in eighth place. Is it possible they could all split the sci-fi/fantasy vote, thereby ensuring a classic drama like The Pitt ekes out a victory on Emmy night? Be sure to give us your take in our TV forum.
SEE 2025 Emmy Awards calendar: Key dates
Below are the current Emmy predictions in 16 top categories, updated May 22. You can see how the races have evolved over time by examining our previous Emmy snapshots on March 19, March 28, April 7, April 15, April 23, April 29, May 7, and May 16.
Gold Derby's Emmy odds are based on the combined forecasts of more than 2,500 people (and counting), including experts we've polled from major media outlets, editors who cover awards year-round for this website, and the mass of users who make up our biggest predictions bloc. Track the Emmy predictions by exploring all of our charts and graphs.
Apple
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Severance — 9/2 2. The Pitt — 11/2 3. The Last of Us — 6/1 4. The White Lotus — 13/2 5. Slow Horses — 8/1 6. The Diplomat — 10/1 7. Andor — 21/2 8. Squid Game — 22/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Paradise, The Handmaid's Tale, The Day of the Jackal, High Potential, Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light, House of the Dragon
Erik Voake/CBS
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Kathy Bates (Matlock) — 10/3 2. Bella Ramsey (The Last of Us) — 4/1 3. Keri Russell (The Diplomat) — 5/1 4. Britt Lower (Severance) — 5/1 5. Elisabeth Moss (The Handmaid's Tale) — 9/1 6. Melanie Lynskey (Yellowjackets) — 14/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Keira Knightley (Black Doves), Carrie Preston (Elsbeth), Kaitlin Olson (High Potential), Helen Mirren (1923), Zoe Saldaña (Lioness), Nicola Coughlan (Bridgerton)
John Johnson/Max
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Noah Wyle (The Pitt) — 10/3 2. Adam Scott (Severance) — 19/5 3. Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) — 5/1 4. Sterling K. Brown (Paradise) — 13/2 5. Pedro Pascal (The Last of Us) — 7/1 6. Eddie Redmayne (The Day of the Jackal) — 18/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Diego Luna (Andor), Jon Hamm (Your Friends and Neighbors), Lee Jung-jae (Squid Game), Billy Bob Thornton (Landman), Mark Rylance (Wolf Hall: The Mirror and the Light), Rufus Sewell (The Diplomat)
HBO
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Carrie Coon (The White Lotus) — 19/5 2. Parker Posey (The White Lotus) — 5/1 3. Allison Janney (The Diplomat) — 11/2 4. Aimee Lou Wood (The White Lotus) — 9/1 5. Natasha Rothwell (The White Lotus) — 12/1 6. Isabela Merced (The Last of Us) — 15/1 7. Patricia Arquette (Severance) — 15/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Taylor Dearden (The Pitt), Katherine LaNasa (The Pitt), Dichen Lachman (Severance), Leslie Bibb (The White Lotus), Kristin Scott Thomas (Slow Horses), Julianne Nicholson (Paradise)
HBO
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Walton Goggins (The White Lotus) — 4/1 2. John Turturro (Severance) — 9/2 3. Tramell Tillman (Severance) — 11/2 4. Jason Isaacs (The White Lotus) — 15/2 5. Jack Lowden (Slow Horses) — 8/1 6. Sam Rockwell (The White Lotus) — 10/1 7. Patrick Schwarzenegger (The White Lotus) — 16/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Jeffrey Wright (The Last of Us), Patrick Ball (The Pitt), Jonathan Pryce (Slow Horses), Zach Cherry (Severance), James Marsden (Paradise), Young Mazino (The Last of Us)
Max
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Hacks — 4/1 2. The Studio — 6/1 3. The Bear — 13/2 4. Only Murders in the Building — 7/1 5. Abbott Elementary — 8/1 6. Shrinking — 19/2 7. Nobody Wants This — 21/2 8. What We Do in the Shadows — 20/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
The Four Seasons, A Man on the Inside, Poker Face, The Righteous Gemstones, The Residence, Agatha All Along
Max
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Jean Smart (Hacks) — 31/10 2. Ayo Edebiri (The Bear) — 9/2 3. Quinta Brunson (Abbott Elementary) — 5/1 4. Kristen Bell (Nobody Wants This) — 6/1 5. Natasha Lyonne (Poker Face) — 23/2 6. Selena Gomez (Only Murders in the Building) — 14/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Uzo Aduba (The Residence), Kathryn Hahn (Agatha All Along), Tina Fey (The Four Seasons), Bridget Everett (Somebody Somewhere), Wendi McLendon-Covey (St. Denis Medical), Rose McIver (Ghosts)
Hulu
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Martin Short (Only Murders in the Building) — 7/2 2. Jeremy Allen White (The Bear) — 9/2 3. Seth Rogen (The Studio) — 9/2 4. Adam Brody (Nobody Wants This) — 6/1 5. Steve Martin (Only Murders in the Building) — 19/2 6. Jason Segel (Shrinking) — 10/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ted Danson (A Man on the Inside), Steve Carell (The Four Seasons), Matt Berry (What We Do in the Shadows), Brian Jordan Alvarez (English Teacher), Benito Skinner (Overcompensating), Patrick Brammall (Colin from Accounts)
Max
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) — 31/10 2. Liza Cólon-Zayas (The Bear) — 9/2 3. Sheryl Lee Ralph (Abbott Elementary) — 6/1 4. Jessica Williams (Shrinking) — 7/1 5. Catherine O'Hara (The Studio) — 8/1 6. Janelle James (Abbott Elementary) — 19/2
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Patti LuPone (Agatha All Along), Meryl Streep (Only Murders in the Building), Kathryn Hahn (The Studio), Meg Stalter (Hacks), Linda Lavin (Mid-Century Modern), Chloe Fineman (Saturday Night Live)
Chuck Hodes/FX
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Ebon Moss-Bachrach (The Bear) — 37/10 2. Harrison Ford (Shrinking) — 9/2 3. Paul W. Downs (Hacks) — 5/1 4. Ike Barinholtz (The Studio) — 15/2 5. Michael Urie (Shrinking) — 17/2 6. Tyler James Williams (Abbott Elementary) — 17/2
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Bowen Yang (Saturday Night Live), Colman Domingo (The Four Seasons), Timothy Simons (Nobody Wants This), Brett Goldstein (Shrinking), Paul Rudd (Only Murders in the Building), Marcello Hernández (Saturday Night Live)
Netflix
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Adolescence — 46/25 2. The Penguin — 82/25 3. Dying for Sex — 13/2 4. Disclaimer — 8/1 5. Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story — 13/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Say Nothing, Black Mirror, Presumed Innocent, La Maquina, Fight Night: The Million Dollar Heist, Sirens
Netflix
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Rebel Ridge — 21/10 2. Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy — 18/5 3. Out of My Mind — 5/1 4. Mountainhead — 13/2 5. Am I OK? — 12/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
The Gorge, Swiped, It's What's Inside, G20, The Parenting, The Supremes at Earl's All-You-Can-Eat
Macall Polay/HBO
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Cristin Milioti (The Penguin) — 21/10 2. Michelle Williams (Dying for Sex) — 3/1 3. Cate Blanchett (Disclaimer) — 9/2 4. Renée Zellweger (Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy) — 9/1 5. Kaitlyn Dever (Apple Cider Vinegar) — 16/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Ellen Pompeo (Good American Family), Lola Petticrew (Say Nothing), Meghann Fahy (Sirens), Anya Taylor-Joy (The Gorge), Rashida Jones (Black Mirror), Ari Graynor (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story)
Max
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Colin Farrell (The Penguin) — 7/4 2. Stephen Graham (Adolescence) — 17/5 3. Cooper Koch (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 6/1 4. Kevin Kline (Disclaimer) — 13/2 5. Brian Tyree Henry (Dope Thief) — 14/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Jake Gyllenhaal (Presumed Innocent), Robert De Niro (Zero Day), Nicholas Alexander Chavez (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story), Aaron Pierre (Rebel Ridge), Paul Giamatti (Black Mirror), Josh Andres Rivera (American Sports Story: Aaron Hernandez)
Ben Blackall/Netflix
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Erin Doherty (Adolescence) — 4/1 2. Deirdre O'Connell (The Penguin) — 5/1 3. Jenny Slate (Dying for Sex) — 11/2 4. Lesley Manville (Disclaimer) — 8/1 5. Sissy Spacek (Dying for Sex) — 9/1 6. Christine Tremarco (Adolescence) — 12/1 7. Chloe Sevigny (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 12/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Leila George (Disclaimer), Angela Bassett (Zero Day), Julianne Moore (Sirens), Ruth Negga (Presumed Innocent), Taraji P. Henson (Fight Night: The Million Dollar Heist), Milly Alcock (Sirens)
Netflix
PREDICTED NOMINEES
1. Owen Cooper (Adolescence) — 39/10 2. Javier Bardem (Monsters: The Lyle and Erik Menendez Story) — 9/2 3. Rhenzy Feliz (The Penguin) — 7/1 4. Rob Delaney (Dying for Sex) — 17/2 5. Ashley Walters (Adolescence) — 9/1 6. Peter Sarsgaard (Presumed Innocent) — 10/1 7. Kodi Smit-McPhee (Disclaimer) — 28/1
POTENTIAL SPOILERS
Jesse Plemons (Zero Day), Hugh Grant (Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy), Brian Cox (The Parenting), Clancy Brown (The Penguin), Jay Duplass (Dying for Sex), Diego Luna (La Maquina)
SIGN UP for Gold Derby's free newsletter with latest predictions
Best of GoldDerby
'Étoile' editor Tim Streeto on reuniting with the Palladinos for the Prime Video ballet series
'The Daily Show' editor Cathy Trasborg on letting Trump supporters 'reveal themselves' in the edit: 'We just let them play out'
'Beast Games' editor Mack Hopkins on the scene that was inspired by 'Dunkirk'
Click here to read the full article.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

USA Today

2 hours ago

• USA Today

Thunder superfan Kristin Chenoweth nailed the national anthem before Game 7

The Oklahoma City Thunder broke out the big guns ahead of Sunday night's Game 7. Before tip off in the winner-take-all game of the NBA Finals against the Indiana Pacers, the Thunder had Kristin Chenoweth — a Tony and Emmy-award winner and star of the Broadway hit show Wicked — sing the national anthem. Chenoweth is a long-time Thunder superfan and an Oklahoma native who knows her hoops. Plus, of course, as a Broadway alum and Tony-winning singer there was absolutely no chance of a repeat of Fergie's incredibly weird national anthem. Chenoweth took her time with Game 7's national anthem before hitting the high notes at the end in typical stunning Chenoweth style. The fans in Oklahoma City absolutely loved the anthem too, if the roar of the crowd was any indication.

Cosmopolitan

11 hours ago

• Cosmopolitan

Breaking Down the ‘28 Years Later' Ending

The apocalyptic pandemic coined the 'Rage Virus' in the 2002 hit 28 Days Later is still with us, 28 years later. The not-so-subtly named illness is a social mutation and a metaphor for our own fractured times. 28 Years Later, Danny Boyle and Alex Garland's long-awaited return to this cinematic universe, is set exactly 10,228 days after the original outbreak. There is no word count large enough to recap what has happened IRL in the last 28 years, but in this world, society has quarantined, rewilded, and brutalized. In the words of Bo Burnham, 'there it is again, that funny feeling…' The new film, the third in the series, opens on the 'Holy Island' of Lindisfarne, where survivors of the virus have built a rustic dystopia. If you're a fan of The Last of Us, Lindisfarne is Jackson, but with a spooky Yellowjackets oeuvre; masked hunters, primitive rituals, and the like. Jamie (Aaron Taylor‑Johnson) puts his son Spike (Alfie Williams) through the coming-of-age rites of manhood through a hunting excursion off-island. Armed with a bow and arrow, the pair face evolved infected on the mainland – a tense chase sequence through marshfields, filmed using iPhones, drones, and even a goat-mounted camera. They see that this group of infected seem to be led by an Alpha, showing that the ever-evolving virus is becoming stronger and smarter. They spend the night in an abandoned cottage, observing a bonfire in the distance, before returning to Lindisfarne. The source of the fire, they later learn, is a spooky survivor Dr. Ian Kelson (Ralph Fiennes). The community of Lindisfarne fears Dr. Kelson, fueled by rumors that he ritualistically burns bodies like a freak. Now is a good time to mention Isla (Jodie Comer), Jamie's wife and Spike's mother. Our girl Isla is sick as a dog, terminally so. Spike wonders of Dr. Kelson might be able to help his mother, and after discovering Jamie's cheating ass with another woman, he says 'to hell with it' and returns to the mainland with his mom. Meanwhile, a group of Swedish NATO soldiers have been washed ashore with a sunken boat. They are almost no match for the infected, leaving one sole survivor – a soldier named Erik, who soon crosses paths with Isla and Spike. The trio band together and continue their search for Dr. Kelson. In a tense scene involving an infected pregnant woman—again, welcome back The Last of Us season two—Erik is killed by an Alpha, who is subdued by Dr. Kelson, who arrives seemingly from nowhere. Dr. Kelson brings Spike, Isla, and the aforementioned woman's now-infected newborn to his sanctuary of sterilized bones. Dr. Kelson confirms that Isla's cancer is terminal, and upon her request, euthanizes her with a morphine dart. He cleans her skull and hands it to Spike, who places it atop Dr. Kelson's boneyard shrine. Let's fast forward through another close encounter with the infected, bringing us to Spike's return to Lindisfarne. He places the baby at the gates of the village with a note addressed to Jamie, promising to return when he's ready. A fitting number of days later (read: 28), Spike is rescued from a pack of infected by a cult-like group of survivors led by Sir Jimmy Crystal (Jack O'Connell). This sudden tonal swerve—neither horror nor satire, but an unsettling mix—sets up the next chapter. Spike's alignment with Jimmy's cult, at the film's close, sets a collision course: the grieving, virus-scarred reality of Spike met with Jimmy's cultic salvation. So, it looks like we're in for another film. We're just left with one question, what titles are left? We kid. It's called 28 Years Later: The Bone Temple, and it's already scheduled for January 2026.

Buzz Feed

12 hours ago

• Buzz Feed

Emmy Contenders To Stream On Hulu Right Now

With first-round Emmy voting officially closing June 23 and nominations slated for July 15, it's a great time to take stock of some of the series we will almost certainly hear read out come nomination morning. Dying For Sex Thanks to the very strange category that is (say it with me) "Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie," we may very well see Michelle Williams go head to head against Renee Zellweger, who starred in Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy — which, by Emmys definition, is considered a "TV Movie," despite also playing in theaters abroad. Dying For Sex, based on the real-life story of Molly Kochan — whose terminal cancer diagnosis prompted a journey of sexual exploration — was an undeniable critical hit and featured what many believe to be career-best work from Jenny Slate and Michelle Williams. Consider them locks. Best shot: Limited or Anthology Series, Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie (Michelle Williams), Supporting Actor in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie (Rob Delaney), Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or TV Movie (Jenny Slate, Sissy Spacek), Watch it on Hulu. The Bear (S3) One of the other deeply strange phenomena of Emmy voting is that sometimes the voting windows overlap with multiple seasons of an eligible show. Such was the case with The Bear last year; It is very possible that having Season 3 — a much less critically favored season — streaming concurrently may have negatively influenced Season 2's awards haul. This recency bias could come into play again this year with Season 4 headed to streaming on June 25 while final-round voting is still shot: Comedy Series, Actor in a Comedy Series (Jeremy Allen White), Actress in a Comedy Series (Ayo Edebiri), Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series (Ebon Moss-Bachrach), Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series (Liza Colon-Zayas), Guest Actor in a Comedy Series (Jon Bernthal), Guest Actress in a Comedy Series (Jamie Lee Curtis)Watch it on Hulu. Only Murders in the Building (S4) It's rare for a show to pick up awards momentum in its fourth season, but that seems to be exactly what's happening with Only Murders. Call it the "Emilia Pérez effect," but the show somehow managed a shocking win at the SAG Awards for Outstanding Performance by an Ensemble in a Comedy Series. Now, with Meryl Streep in the mix (and a showmance that is bringing renewed outside interest to the show), I have to imagine the momentum will only grow from here. Best shot: Comedy Series, Actor in a Comedy Series (Martin Short, Steve Martin), Actress in a Comedy Series (Selena Gomez), Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series (Meryl Streep), Guest Actress in a Comedy Series (Melissa McCarthy) Watch it on Hulu. Abbott Elementary (S4) Abbott Elementary is an unstoppable force in TV comedy. With three consecutive years of nominations, including wins for Writing, Supporting Actress (Sheryl Lee Ralph), and Lead Actress (Quinta Brunson), and a growing number of overall ensemble recognitions, the beloved workplace mockumentary series on ABC now faces an unusually crowded category of comedy competitors. New smash hits like The Studio and Nobody Wants This will certainly make this race interesting. Best shot: Comedy Series, Actress in a Comedy Series (Quinta Brunson), Supporting Actor in a Comedy Series (Tyler James Williams), Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series (Sheryl Lee Ralph, Janelle James)Watch it on Hulu. What We Do In the Shadows (S6) Cult-favorite What We Do In The Shadows has never been recognized at the Emmys. Now, having wrapped its sixth and final season, the voting body has one final shot to give the show its flowers. This wouldn't be without precedent, either; The Hollywood Reporter recently explored this phenomenon at great length, singling out shows like Slow Horses, The Gilded Age, Reservation Dogs, and The Morning Show, all of which received their first Emmy nominations after multiple blanked shot: Comedy Series, Actor in a Comedy Series (Matt Berry)Watch it on Hulu. Good American Family And now, back to the most unhinged Emmys category, which I've already teased will likely include Zellweger and Williams. Anything can happen here! And that includes an Ellen Pompeo nomination for her first big role post-Grey's. While Pompeo has never been considered a major player in the Emmys conversation before, she probably deserves an award for her massive campaigning effort this year, alone, which, yes, included a Call Her Daddy shot: Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or a TV Movie (Ellen Pompeo), Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or a TV Movie (Imogen Faith Reid) Watch it on Hulu. Say Nothing The only thing standing in the way of Say Nothing getting an Emmy nomination? Fans of the nothing. Despite receiving rave reviews, and what seemed to be promising interest and viewership at the time of release, chatter around the limited series adapted from the Patrick Radden Keefe book has seemingly died down in the months since. Could this be the result of its binge-drop rollout? Or the result of so many shows being dumped in the last month of Emmys eligibility? Who knows! But whatever happens, this is a series absolutely worth your shot: Best Limited or Anthology Series, Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or a TV Movie (Lola Petticrew), Best Supporting Actress in a Limited or Anthology Series or a TV Movie (Maxine Peake)Watch it on Hulu. Mid-Century Modern (S1) A posthumous nod for the great Linda Lavin seems like a logical place for the Television Academy to show support for this new series, which follows three gay men who retire to Palm Springs. Could the series, which has drawn inevitable comparisons to The Golden Girls, be a little too throwback-y for the voting body's taste? (See also: Poker Face, a Columbo-esque "howdunnit," that missed out on a Comedy Series nom for its season and, again, seems to be on the bubble).Best shot: Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series (Linda Lavin)Watch it on Hulu. The Handmaid's Tale (S6) With 15 Oscar wins already under its belt, let's just say The Handmaid's Tale doesn't exactly need another statuette to rewrite its legacy like What We Do In the Shadows does. Even so, it's still possible that voters will want to show their love for the juggernaut by awarding the final season's undeniable performances from Elisabeth Moss and Cherry Jones, the ultimate Guest Actress shot: Drama Series, Actress in a Drama Series (Elisabeth Moss), Guest Actress in a Drama Series (Cherry Jones)Watch it on Hulu. Paradise (S1) After a surprise (to me) Oscar nomination for American Fiction, I have come to the conclusion that we should never rule out Sterling K. Brown from any acting category he is eligible for. This is especially true in the case of his new apocalyptic thriller, Paradise, because, notably, it is a reunion with This Is Us creator Dan Fogelman — with whom he earned five Lead Actor in a Drama nominations and one win. Best shot: Actor in a Drama Series (Sterling K. Brown)Watch it on Hulu. Road Diary: Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band How beautiful would that be to see Jeremy Allen White and Bruce both nominated in the same year? It seems likely, with Road Diary: Bruce Springsteen and the E Street Band, a well-reviewed documentary about the legendary musician's ethos and mission, in the mix. Its biggest competitor will be the buddy road trip doc Will & Harper which — surprise! — is Emmy eligible. Perhaps it will have more success here than it did at the shot: Documentary or Nonfiction Special Watch it on Hulu. Social Studies Another strong entry from FX/Hulu in the docu space is the five-part series Social Studies from Lauren Greenfield — a fascinating and sobering examination of teenhood in the age of TikTok. It's hard to imagine voters forgetting some of the alarming discoveries that this documentary makes when it comes time to put pen to shot: Documentary Series Watch it on Hulu. Stream all of these series on Hulu.