Iran-Israel conflict not to alter OPEC trajectory, to continue 2.2 million barrels/ day production cuts: Vandana Hari

Vandana Hari
, Founder & CEO,
Vanda Insights
, says OPEC+ is likely to continue unwinding its 2.2 million barrels per day production cuts, a decision driven more by internal dynamics than external market pressures. Eight member nations are expected to maintain their current course, prioritizing group cohesion. Experts anticipate that the
Iran-Israel conflict
will not significantly alter OPEC+'s trajectory, as the group focuses on internal stability and solidarity.
Things are still pretty much building up when it comes to West Asia. We have already seen a 12% spike on crude in the last one week alone. Where are we headed?
Vandana Hari:
Whatever risk premium the market had to assign on account of the Israel-Iran tensions is already embedded in crude. We saw most of that jump happening on Friday when Brent and WTI settled higher on the day by about 7%. At one point when the markets opened, crude Brent jumped back towards $78 but very quickly pulled back very similar to the price action we saw on Friday when it actually settled nearly $3 below the intraday high and we have seen the same action this morning.
by Taboola
by Taboola
Sponsored Links
Sponsored Links
Promoted Links
Promoted Links
You May Like
Knee pain prices might surprise you
Knee pain | search ads
Find Now
What that tells me is that there is a bit of tug-of-war in the market with regard to how much supply risk to assign to this whole situation. As of now, the consensus is there is not a real risk, a threat to supplies from the Middle East or the waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. So, crude will be in a holding pattern. The market will be in a wait-and- watch mode. My base case remains that Iran and Israel's strikes against each other will remain relatively restrained and at least deliberately they will not be targeting the oil infrastructure in the wider region.
We know that both of them have targeted to some extent infrastructure in each other's countries, upstream and downstream oil and gas, but the wider Middle Eastern oil production and supply is not under threat as of now.
What do you believe the next
OPEC
plus action could be? Are they going to increase their supply to try and stabilise the market or are they going to hold back to ensure some profits?
Vandana Hari:
The statement that came out of OPEC on Friday was that they did not see any direct threat to supply, any shortages in the market and no need to act immediately to the situation which was a bit of a contrast to the international energy agency which had earlier issued a statement saying that its members stood ready to put oil into the market from their emergency reserves.
Live Events
You Might Also Like:
Oil stocks in focus as escalating Israel-Iran conflict fuels supply disruption fears
So, in terms of what OPEC plus does in the coming months, my expectation before this Israel-Iran conflict broke out was that the eight members that have been accelerating the unwinding of their 2.2 million barrels per day of cuts will remain on that trajectory. They have already done that for three months and I expect them to remain.
This is more a response to internal tensions and an attempt to preserve cohesion and peace and calm, solidarity within the group rather than anything necessarily in the market outside. This is OPEC plus turning inwards and looking at what it needs to do to stay intact.
I expect OPEC plus to stay on that trajectory. By the time they make their next decision on their monthly budget, the unwinding of the cuts, hopefully the Iran-Israel conflict dust would have settled on it. So, I do not expect this particular conflict to necessarily change that trajectory of accelerated unwinding of OPEC plus cuts.

Try Our AI Features

Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:

Learn with AIFact CheckingText to SpeechAI Summary

Related Articles

Mint

24 minutes ago

• Mint

Israel-Iran war: DMart to Eicher Motors— Jigar Patel of Anand Rathi recommends 3 stocks to buy for the short term

Stocks to buy for the short term: Indian stock market benchmarks, the Sensex and the Nifty 50, crashed over a per cent each in intraday trade on Monday, June 23, as Israel-Iran war escalates further, crude oil prices rise sharply and investors dump riskier equities and rush to safe haven assets. As it is difficult to predict the trajectory of the stock market amid rapidly changing geopolitical scenarios, Jigar S. Patel, Senior Manager of Equity Research at Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers, advises traders to remain vigilant. "A decisive breakout above 25,300 could pave the way for a sustained rally toward 25,500–25,600. Conversely, any faltering near current levels could signal renewed caution. On the downside, immediate support lies at 24,700, with a stronger floor near 24,450. Until confirmation is evident, restraint remains prudent near resistance zones," said Patel. Jigar Patel recommends buying shares of DMart, Eicher Motors and Biocon for the next two to three weeks. Over the past month, Eicher Motors has witnessed a healthy correction of approximately 12 per cent from its recent peak of ₹ 5,906. Notably, the stock has established a firm base over the last 15 trading sessions, consolidating between its 50- and 100-day exponential moving averages — a sign of stabilizing price action. In the latest session, Eicher decisively broke out of a dual descending trendline, supported by a steadily improving Relative Strength Index (RSI), which has consistently held above the 40 mark and now stands at 61.42. "The confluence of favourable technical indicators positions Eicher as an attractive long candidate. Traders may consider initiating positions in the ₹ 5,530–5,480 range, targeting ₹ 5,900, with a stop loss placed below ₹ 5,300," said Patel. Eicher Motors Following a steep decline from its recent high of ₹ 4,557, DMart has entered a consolidation phase, forming a strong base around the confluence of its 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages (DEMA). Notably, the stock has triggered a bullish golden crossover, with the 50-DEMA moving above the 200-DEMA — a technically significant development often interpreted as a precursor to upward momentum. Adding weight to the bullish bias, the stock has also broken out of a descending trendline, indicating a potential trend reversal. "Given this confluence of positive technical signals, traders may consider initiating long positions in the ₹ 4,300–4,250 zone, with an upside potential toward ₹ 4,700. A stop loss should be maintained below ₹ 4,100 on a daily closing basis," Patel said. DMart Biocon has recently established a robust base around the confluence of its 50-, 100-, and 200-day exponential moving averages (DEMA), signalling price stability after a period of consolidation. A golden crossover — with the 50-DEMA crossing above the 200-DEMA — further reinforces the emerging bullish sentiment. On June 19, 2025, the stock also formed a bullish harami candlestick pattern, accompanied by a close above the R3 Camarilla monthly pivot, strengthening the technical outlook. This alignment of key indicators suggests a potential upside move. "Traders may consider initiating long positions in the ₹ 353–348 range, with a projected target of ₹ 385. A protective stop loss should be placed below ₹ 332 on a daily closing basis to manage risk effectively," said Patel. Biocon Read all market-related news here Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.

Time of India

26 minutes ago

• Time of India

Ola Electric shares slide 6% to all-time low after fresh block deal

Shares of Ola Electric Mobility dropped 6% on Monday to an all-time low of Rs 43.20 on the BSE, after 0.8% of the company's equity changed hands in block deals. The identities of the buyers and sellers were not immediately known. Earlier this month, a block deal worth Rs 731 crore saw 14.22 crore shares—representing 3.23% equity—change hands at an average price of Rs 51.40. Hyundai Motor Company was the reported seller in that transaction. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Buy Brass Idols - Handmade Brass Statues for Home & Gifting Luxeartisanship Buy Now Undo Also Read: Why stock market is falling today? Key factors behind 900-point Sensex crash, Nifty below 24,850 Weak Q4 performance The stock's recent decline follows a weak March quarter earnings report. Ola Electric posted a net loss of Rs 870 crore in Q4 FY25, more than doubling from Rs 416 crore in the same quarter last year. Revenue from operations slumped 62% YoY to Rs 611 crore as vehicle deliveries fell to 51,375 units from 1.15 lakh a year ago. Live Events Also Read: Is the grey market premium misleading? Decoding the valuation gap in HDB Financial's IPO Auto EBITDA margin plunged to -78.6% from -9.3% in Q4 FY24, while consolidated EBITDA margin dropped to -101.4%, impacted by high provisioning and weak operating leverage. However, gross margin improved slightly to 19.2%, supported by better monetisation and a higher share of Gen-3 platform vehicles, which offer 20% more power and range at 11% lower cost than Gen-2 models. For FY25, the company delivered 3.59 lakh vehicles, up from 3.29 lakh in FY24. Full-year adjusted revenue stood at Rs 4,665 crore, with a consolidated EBITDA margin of -34.6%. Also Read: 11 Nifty mid & smallcap stocks that can rally 40-90% over the next 12 months Stock performance and price target Ola Electric's shares have fallen over 43% from their IPO price of Rs 76. The company debuted on August 9, 2024, listing at Rs 91.20 per share. The stock is now down 49% year-to-date and has fallen 72% from its 52-week high of Rs 157.50. According to Trendlyne, the average analyst target for Ola Electric is Rs 59, implying a potential upside of nearly 35%. Among the seven analysts tracking the stock, the consensus rating is 'Hold'. Ola Electric, known for its electric scooters, has faced criticism over customer service and repair issues, which have also attracted regulatory scrutiny. Despite ongoing expansion plans in the EV ecosystem, these challenges continue to weigh on investor sentiment. The company's current market capitalisation stands at Rs 19,407 crore. Also Read: $2.4 trillion worth of gold! India's household hoard is 6x Pakistan's economy ( Disclaimer : Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of the Economic Times)

Business Standard

26 minutes ago

• Business Standard

Oil surges to five-month high after US hits Iran's key nuclear sites

Market participants expect further price gains amid mounting fears that an Iranian retaliation may include a closure of the Strait of Hormuz Reuters NEW DELHI Oil prices jumped on Monday to their highest since January as the United States' weekend move to join Israel in attacking Iran's nuclear facilities stoked supply concerns. Brent crude futures were up $1.52 or 1.97 per cent to $78.53 a barrel as of 0503 GMT. US West Texas Intermediate crude advanced $1.51 or 2.04 per cent to $75.35. Both contracts jumped by more than 3 per cent earlier in the session to $81.40 and $78.40, respectively, touching five-month highs before giving up some gains. The rise in prices came after US President Donald Trump said he had "obliterated" Iran's main nuclear sites in strikes over the weekend, joining an Israeli assault in an escalation of conflict in the Middle East as Tehran vowed to defend itself. Iran is Opec's third-largest crude producer. Market participants expect further price gains amid mounting fears that an Iranian retaliation may include a closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of global crude supply flows. "The current geopolitical escalation provides the fundamental catalyst for (Brent) prices to traverse higher and potentially spiral towards $100, with $120 per barrel appearing increasingly plausible," said Sugandha Sachdeva, founder of New Delhi-based research firm SS WealthStreet. Iran's Press TV reported that the Iranian parliament had approved a measure to close the strait. Iran has in the past threatened to close the strait but has never followed through. Iran and Israel exchanged air and missile strikes on Monday, as global tensions rose over Tehran's expected response to a U.S. attack on its nuclear facilities. "The risks of damage to oil infrastructure ... have multiplied," said Sparta Commodities senior analyst June Goh. Although there are alternative pipeline routes out of the region, there will still be crude volume that cannot be fully exported out if the Strait of Hormuz becomes inaccessible. Shippers will increasingly stay out of the region, she added. Goldman Sachs said in a Sunday report that Brent could briefly peak at $110 per barrel if oil flows through the critical waterway were halved for a month, and remain down by 10 per cent for the following 11 months. The bank still assumed no significant disruption to oil and natural gas supply, adding global incentives to try and prevent a sustained and very large disruption. Brent has risen 13 per cent since the conflict began on June 13, while WTI has gained around 10 per cent. Given the Strait of Hormuz is indispensable for Iran's own oil exports, which are a vital source of its national revenues, a sustained closure would inflict severe economic damage on Iran itself, making it a double-edged sword, Sachdeva added. Meanwhile, Japan on Monday called for de-escalation of the conflict in Iran, while a South Korean vice industry minister voiced concern over the potential impact of the strikes on the country's trade. (Only the headline and picture of this report may have been reworked by the Business Standard staff; the rest of the content is auto-generated from a syndicated feed.)