Latest news with #VandaInsights
Nikkei Asia
3 days ago
- Business
- Nikkei Asia
Don't let the near-term LNG glut derail long-term investment discipline
Vandana Hari is founder of Vanda Insights, a Singapore-based global energy market intelligence provider. The global gas market is navigating a complex intersection of short-term volatility and long-term structural shifts. For policymakers and industry leaders, the risk is not just misreading near-term noise, but losing sight of the enduring signals demanding sustained investment in LNG infrastructure and supply.
Mint
6 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Oil Moves Higher After Trump Calls for Evacuation of Tehran
Oil jumped after US President Donald Trump called for the evacuation of Tehran before paring gains, with the market on edge about an escalation in the conflict with Israel that could disrupt crude supply. Brent advanced as much as 2.2% before easing to trade above $73 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate was near $72, after futures closed lower Monday on signs Iran was seeking a deescalation. Israel, however, has continued its attacks, which started Friday by targeting nuclear sites. So far, Iran's crude-exporting infrastructure has been spared and there are no signs that Tehran is seeking to escalate hostilities by disrupting flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Middle East producers ship about a fifth of the world's daily output through the narrow waterway. 'It's a jittery market but still not pricing in the worst-case scenarios on supply disruption,' said Vandana Hari, the founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. 'There could well be bigger strikes ahead, but that is still not changing the market's calculus on supply risk, it seems.' Most of the fallout has been confined to shipping since the conflict began on Friday. Navigation signals in Hormuz and the Persian Gulf are facing increasing interference that's impacting positional reporting, according to the UK Navy, and some shipowners are reluctant to accept bookings in the region, citing safety concerns. Tanker rates also soared. Oil prices still remains significantly higher than where they were before the attacks began, which prompted record volumes of producer hedging as well as futures and options changing hands. Morgan Stanley has hiked its price forecasts citing increased risk from the conflict. Trump is set to abruptly depart the Group of Seven leaders' summit in Canada, hours after he called for the evacuation. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt said the president was leaving for Washington 'so he can attend to many important matters,' and in a follow-up post on X said the departure was due to 'what's going on in the Middle East.' Israel said its taken control over much of Iran's airspace and severely damaged key facilities used in its missile and nuclear programs since the assault was launched on Friday, sparking fears of widening conflict in a region that produces around a third of the world's crude. With assistance from Rob Verdonck and Yongchang Chin. This article was generated from an automated news agency feed without modifications to text.
Time of India
7 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Iran-Israel conflict not to alter OPEC trajectory, to continue 2.2 million barrels/ day production cuts: Vandana Hari
Vandana Hari , Founder & CEO, Vanda Insights , says OPEC+ is likely to continue unwinding its 2.2 million barrels per day production cuts, a decision driven more by internal dynamics than external market pressures. Eight member nations are expected to maintain their current course, prioritizing group cohesion. Experts anticipate that the Iran-Israel conflict will not significantly alter OPEC+'s trajectory, as the group focuses on internal stability and solidarity. Things are still pretty much building up when it comes to West Asia. We have already seen a 12% spike on crude in the last one week alone. Where are we headed? Vandana Hari: Whatever risk premium the market had to assign on account of the Israel-Iran tensions is already embedded in crude. We saw most of that jump happening on Friday when Brent and WTI settled higher on the day by about 7%. At one point when the markets opened, crude Brent jumped back towards $78 but very quickly pulled back very similar to the price action we saw on Friday when it actually settled nearly $3 below the intraday high and we have seen the same action this morning. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Knee pain prices might surprise you Knee pain | search ads Find Now What that tells me is that there is a bit of tug-of-war in the market with regard to how much supply risk to assign to this whole situation. As of now, the consensus is there is not a real risk, a threat to supplies from the Middle East or the waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. So, crude will be in a holding pattern. The market will be in a wait-and- watch mode. My base case remains that Iran and Israel's strikes against each other will remain relatively restrained and at least deliberately they will not be targeting the oil infrastructure in the wider region. We know that both of them have targeted to some extent infrastructure in each other's countries, upstream and downstream oil and gas, but the wider Middle Eastern oil production and supply is not under threat as of now. What do you believe the next OPEC plus action could be? Are they going to increase their supply to try and stabilise the market or are they going to hold back to ensure some profits? Vandana Hari: The statement that came out of OPEC on Friday was that they did not see any direct threat to supply, any shortages in the market and no need to act immediately to the situation which was a bit of a contrast to the international energy agency which had earlier issued a statement saying that its members stood ready to put oil into the market from their emergency reserves. Live Events You Might Also Like: Oil stocks in focus as escalating Israel-Iran conflict fuels supply disruption fears So, in terms of what OPEC plus does in the coming months, my expectation before this Israel-Iran conflict broke out was that the eight members that have been accelerating the unwinding of their 2.2 million barrels per day of cuts will remain on that trajectory. They have already done that for three months and I expect them to remain. This is more a response to internal tensions and an attempt to preserve cohesion and peace and calm, solidarity within the group rather than anything necessarily in the market outside. This is OPEC plus turning inwards and looking at what it needs to do to stay intact. I expect OPEC plus to stay on that trajectory. By the time they make their next decision on their monthly budget, the unwinding of the cuts, hopefully the Iran-Israel conflict dust would have settled on it. So, I do not expect this particular conflict to necessarily change that trajectory of accelerated unwinding of OPEC plus cuts.
Economic Times
7 days ago
- Business
- Economic Times
Iran-Israel conflict not to alter OPEC trajectory, to continue 2.2 million barrels/ day production cuts: Vandana Hari
Vandana Hari, Founder & CEO, Vanda Insights, says OPEC+ is likely to continue unwinding its 2.2 million barrels per day production cuts, a decision driven more by internal dynamics than external market pressures. Eight member nations are expected to maintain their current course, prioritizing group cohesion. Experts anticipate that the Iran-Israel conflict will not significantly alter OPEC+'s trajectory, as the group focuses on internal stability and solidarity. ADVERTISEMENT Things are still pretty much building up when it comes to West Asia. We have already seen a 12% spike on crude in the last one week alone. Where are we headed? Vandana Hari: Whatever risk premium the market had to assign on account of the Israel-Iran tensions is already embedded in crude. We saw most of that jump happening on Friday when Brent and WTI settled higher on the day by about 7%. At one point when the markets opened, crude Brent jumped back towards $78 but very quickly pulled back very similar to the price action we saw on Friday when it actually settled nearly $3 below the intraday high and we have seen the same action this morning. What that tells me is that there is a bit of tug-of-war in the market with regard to how much supply risk to assign to this whole situation. As of now, the consensus is there is not a real risk, a threat to supplies from the Middle East or the waterways such as the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab al-Mandab Strait. So, crude will be in a holding pattern. The market will be in a wait-and- watch mode. My base case remains that Iran and Israel's strikes against each other will remain relatively restrained and at least deliberately they will not be targeting the oil infrastructure in the wider region. We know that both of them have targeted to some extent infrastructure in each other's countries, upstream and downstream oil and gas, but the wider Middle Eastern oil production and supply is not under threat as of now. What do you believe the next OPEC plus action could be? Are they going to increase their supply to try and stabilise the market or are they going to hold back to ensure some profits? Vandana Hari: The statement that came out of OPEC on Friday was that they did not see any direct threat to supply, any shortages in the market and no need to act immediately to the situation which was a bit of a contrast to the international energy agency which had earlier issued a statement saying that its members stood ready to put oil into the market from their emergency reserves. So, in terms of what OPEC plus does in the coming months, my expectation before this Israel-Iran conflict broke out was that the eight members that have been accelerating the unwinding of their 2.2 million barrels per day of cuts will remain on that trajectory. They have already done that for three months and I expect them to remain. ADVERTISEMENT This is more a response to internal tensions and an attempt to preserve cohesion and peace and calm, solidarity within the group rather than anything necessarily in the market outside. This is OPEC plus turning inwards and looking at what it needs to do to stay intact. I expect OPEC plus to stay on that trajectory. By the time they make their next decision on their monthly budget, the unwinding of the cuts, hopefully the Iran-Israel conflict dust would have settled on it. So, I do not expect this particular conflict to necessarily change that trajectory of accelerated unwinding of OPEC plus cuts. ADVERTISEMENT (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel)
Mint
10-06-2025
- Business
- Mint
Oil Rises on Trade-Talk Optimism, Signs of Near-Term Tightness
(Bloomberg) -- Oil ticked higher, rising for a fourth straight day, on investor optimism around extended trade talks between the US and China, and signs of near-term tightness in the physical market. Global benchmark Brent rose above $67 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate topped $65. US Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said that initial discussions in London with officials from Beijing had been 'fruitful'. The negotiations are slated to continue on Tuesday. Crude has declined this year on fears that persistent global trade tensions will sap economic growth and crimp energy demand, although progress in the latest US-China talks could ease such concerns and buoy risk assets. Oil has also been hurt as the OPEC alliance agreed to add production back to the market at a faster-than-expected clip, spurring forecasts for a glut. 'Crude has preemptively priced in a degree of success in the US-China trade talks,' said Vandana Hari, founder of Vanda Insights in Singapore. 'We may not know the outcome for another day, and I expect prices to go into a holding pattern until then.' Oil's pricing structure points to near-term tightness, although the reverse is the case further out. Brent's prompt spread is 81 cents a barrel in backwardation, a bullish pattern, with the nearest contract trading at a premium to the next in sequence. That's up from 48 cents about a month ago. On the geopolitical front, President Donald Trump expressed concern that Iran was seeking too much in a potential nuclear deal, including the ability to enrich uranium. He described the Iranian negotiators as tough but good. Talks will continue on Thursday, according to Trump. To get Bloomberg's Energy Daily newsletter in your inbox, click here. More stories like this are available on
