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Daily Tribune
2 days ago
- Politics
- Daily Tribune
Use of US bunker-buster bomb looms over Iran conflict
AFP | Washington, United States A powerful American bunker-busting bomb is the only weapon capable of destroying Iran's deeply buried nuclear facilities, making it President Donald Trump's weapon of choice if he chooses to militarily back Israel. The GBU-57, a 30,000-pound (13,607 kg) warhead capable of penetrating 200 feet (61 meters) underground before exploding, is missing from Israel's arsenal despite its stated goal of preventing Iran from building a nuclear bomb. - Why this bomb? - In less than a week, the Israeli army has taken out Iranian military commanders and damaged numerous surface installations, raising more questions than answers. "The regime's missile stockpiles, launchers, military bases, production facilities, nuclear scientists, military command and control has taken a very severe beating," said Behnam Ben Taleblu, director of the Iran program at the Washington-based think tank Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a conservative-leaning group. "But there are still outsized questions as to how efficacious of a strike Israel had against the beating hearts of Iran's nuclear program," Taleblu said. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has reported no damage at Fordo, a uranium enrichment plant south of Tehran. Unlike the Natanz and Isfahan sites in central Iran, Fordo is buried deep underground, beyond the reach of Israeli bombs. "All eyes will be on Fordo, which is buried under about 300 feet of rock in central Iran," Taleblu said. Former US Army lieutenant general and Rand Corporation defense researcher Mark Schwartz insists that "only the United States has the conventional capacity" to destroy such a site. And by "conventional capacity," he means the non-nuclear GBU-57 bomb. - What are its capabilities? - The US military says the GBU-57 -- also named Massive Ordnance Penetrator -- "is designed to penetrate up to 200 feet underground before exploding," navigating through rock and concrete. This differs from missiles or bombs that typically detonate their payload near or upon impact. "To defeat these deeply buried targets, these weapons need to be designed with rather thick casings of steel, hardened steel, to sort of punch through these layers of rock," said Masao Dahlgren, a fellow working on missile defense for the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based research center. The 6.6-meter-long GBU-57 also has a specialized fuse because "you need an explosive that's not going to immediately explode under that much shock and pressure," Dahlgren said. Design for this bomb began in the early 2000s, and an order for 20 units was placed with Boeing in 2009. - How is it deployed? - The only aircraft capable of deploying the GBU-57 is an American B-2 Bomber, a stealth aircraft. Some of these bombers were deployed in early May on Diego Garcia, the site of a joint UK-US military base in the Indian Ocean, but were no longer visible by mid-June, according to AFP's analysis of satellite imagery provided by Planet Labs. With their long-range capabilities, B-2s departing from the United States "are able to fly all the way to the Middle East to do bombing runs. That's been done before," Dahlgren said. Each B-2 can carry two GBU-57 bombs, and Schwartz said multiple bombs will likely be needed. "They're not going to just be one and done," he said. Schwartz added that the air superiority Israel has established over Iran reduces the risks faced by the B-2 bombers. - What are the consequences? - Such a US intervention would come with "a lot of political baggage for America," Taleblu said, emphasizing that the bunker-buster bomb is not the only way to address Iran's nuclear program. Without the GBU-57 bombs, and short of a diplomatic solution, Taleblu said Israelis could attack access to underground complexes like Fordo by "trying to hit entrances, collapse what they can, cut electricity" and take other measures that have already been taken at Natanz.
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First Post
2 days ago
- Politics
- First Post
Inside Fordow, the heart of Iran's nuclear programme that's hidden deep inside a mountain
The escalating tensions between Iran and Israel has put a spotlight on Tehran's nuclear facilities, namely the Fordow nuclear plant, which the Jewish nation wants to destroy. However, this is easier said than done. This facility is buried deep underground, making it almost indestructible to any Israeli weapon read more Last Friday (June 13), when Israel launched a surprise attack on Iran, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that the Islamic Republic's nuclear weapons and existing ballistic missiles were the primary targets of the operation. The goal was to end the 'existential threat' Israel faces from Iran. And in this quest, the Jewish nation has been targeting multiple nuclear facilities in Iran, barring one — the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, which is located about 100 miles south of Tehran near the city of Qom. In fact, Fordow is one of the two nuclear enrichment sites in the country. The other, in Natanz , has been reportedly partially destroyed in the ongoing conflict. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Many Iran watchers note that Fordow is a symbol of the country's defiance as well as its technological ingenuity. As Behnam Ben Taleblu, a senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a US think-tank told the Financial Times, 'Fordow is the be-all and end-all of Iran's nuclear operation.' But what makes Fordow such a critical site? Why does Israel seek to disable Fordow? And why is that almost mission impossible for the Jewish nation? What is Iran's Fordow plant? Located close to the holy city of Qom, the Fordow plant is a fortress built deep within the mountains — up to 300 feet underground. Its existence was first made public known in 2009. The location was originally part of a missile base controlled by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). In fact, when the finding of Fordow was made public, Iran earned a rare rebuke from Russia as well as a warning from China — both considered allies of Tehran. According to Iranian documents stolen by Israeli intelligence, the main halls at Fordow are an estimated 80 to 90 metres (around 262 to 295 feet) beneath the ground — making it safe and almost unreachable to any weapon possessed by Israel. Today, according to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Fordow houses 2,700 centrifuges and has been enriching uranium to 60 per cent — a technical step away from the 90 per cent needed for nuclear weapons. According to the ISIS think tank, 'Iran can convert its current stock of 60 per cent enriched uranium into 233 kg of weapon-grade uranium in three weeks at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant,' enough for nine nuclear weapons. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD Many analysts note that Fordow is Iran's symbol of its nuclear ambitions. As Brett McGurk, who has served as Middle East coordinator for several American presidents, was quoted as telling New York Times, 'If you don't get Fordow, you haven't eliminated their ability to produce weapons-grade material.' What makes Fordow so impenetrable? Hidden deep inside a mountain helps keep Fordow away from Israeli weapons. Believed to be between 80 and 300 feet underground, Fordow is well beyond the reach of conventional bombs and munitions. 'The Iranians fully understood that the Israelis would try to get inside their programmes and they built Fordow inside of a mountain a long time ago to take care of the post-Iraq problem' presented by the 1981 strike, Vali Nasr, an Iran expert who is a professor at Johns Hopkins University, told the New York Times. The Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant in central Iran. Fordow is a highly secretive and heavily guarded facility first made public in 2009. Reuters Moreover, Fordow is protected by surface-to-air missiles, including Russia's S-300 system, and has been reinforced to survive sustained bombardment. 'Tehran has made sure the facility can survive airstrike attacks, making Fordow a much harder target than the other facilities that have been hit through the years,' said Nicholas Carl, a research manager at the American Enterprise Institute's Critical Threats Project, as per the NY Post. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In fact, a March report from the UK-based Royal United Services Institute (Rusi) think tank noted that destroying Fordow from the air would be almost impossible for Israel and would require significant firepower and assistance from the United States. What Israel needs to destroy Fordow? Israeli officials have said that the destruction of Fordow is vital to stopping Iran's nuclear ambitions. 'The entire operation… really has to be completed with the elimination of Fordow,' Israeli Ambassador to the US Yechiel Leiter said. But this is easier said than done. This is because Israel doesn't have the weaponry to attack deep into the earth; only the US is in possession of such weaponry — the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator , which can only be dropped using a large aircraft, the B-2 stealth bombers, a US-made plane. The GBU-57, or the Massive Ordnance Penetrator bomb, at Whiteman Air Base in Missouri. This is the only weapon that could take out the Fordow nuclear plant. File image/AP Also known as a bunker-busting bomb, the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator is 20 feet long and 30,000 pounds heavy. The warhead case is made from a special high performance steel alloy and its design allows for a large explosive payload while maintaining the integrity of the penetrator case during impact. It also possesses the ability to penetrate as deep as 61 metres into the ground. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD But a report by Rusi notes that even the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator would not be enough. The report reads, 'Even the GBU-57/B would likely require multiple impacts at the same aiming point to have a good chance of penetrating the facility.' However, some analysts believe that there are other ways to destroy Fordow. CNN military analyst Cedric Leighton, a former US Air Force colonel, said, 'Israel could probably destroy the tunnel entrances pretty far back, and certainly destroy the ventilation system,' he said. 'If you destroyed (the tunnels) and the electric electrical supply, it would be months before they could really operate.' It seems as of now the Fordow conundrum remains for Israel — the nuclear mountain will continue to haunt the Jewish nation. With inputs from agencies
NBC News
3 days ago
- Politics
- NBC News
Will Israel's airstrikes cause the collapse of the Iranian regime?
With his country having killed some of Iran's top military commanders and rattled its leadership, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says his government's aerial assault on Iran could trigger the collapse of the regime, opening the door to a popular uprising. 'It's impossible to predict, but it could be the result of our mighty action,' Netanyahu told reporters. 'We are changing the face of the Middle East.' That scenario, according to scholars who study Iran, as well as former U.S. and Israeli officials, is unlikely. The theocratic government remains deeply unpopular, but it still has a tight grip on power, and no organized opposition is poised to seize authority, they say. And if there is change at the top, it might come not from a popular uprising but from a coup within the regime, which might produce an even more authoritarian result. Still, the Iranian government is struggling to cope with the attacks. Some experts say that even if Israel's onslaught does not topple the regime, it could inflict permanent damage, leaving it in a weakened state that could embolden opposition activists or fuel internal power struggles inside the theocratic system. After having initially targeted nuclear and missile sites at the start of its air campaign last week, Israel has expanded its target list to include oil facilities, police headquarters and the state television center — all representing crucial elements of the government's political and economic power. 'They're going after the apparatus of repression inside the regime,' said Mark Dubowitz, CEO of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a think tank that has called for imposing tougher sanctions and other measures against Iran. If they weaken the security services used to crush dissent in Iran, the strikes could open up more space for opponents of the regime, Dubowitz said. 'I think their hope is we can undermine and distract the security forces and have Iranians take to the streets, as they've been for many years now, and take back their country,' he said. 'It's one of the key pillars of the Israeli strategy.' Wary of foreign interference But Israeli missiles may not be the ideal vehicle for overturning Iran's authoritarian rule, experts said. Hamidreza Azizi, a former professor at Iran's Shahid Beheshti University who is now a visiting fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said that several days into the conflict, 'we still see no sign of a popular uprising against the government.' On the contrary, Azizi said, 'images of devastation in civilian areas and the deaths of innocent people are making Iranians — who are inherently patriotic and emotionally connected to their nation — quite uneasy about Israel's ultimate intentions.' Suzanne Maloney, who has written about Iran's politics and advised previous U.S. administrations, said the Iranian people's dissatisfaction with the regime is also coupled with deep national pride and a wariness of foreign interference. 'Iranians are very well understood to resent their government. They're deeply critical of its failures, both in terms of how it has governed the country and how it has represented their interests on the world stage,' said Maloney, a vice president at the Brookings Institution think tank. 'But they also are fiercely nationalistic.' Given Iran's bitter experience with foreign meddling, distrust of outside powers is pervasive, and it is a 'third rail' in Iranian politics since a U.S.-British coup toppled a democratically elected prime minister in 1953, she said. Since it came to power in the 1979 revolution that toppled the country's pro-Western monarch, the Islamic Republic has a long record of repression, using its security services to crush protests and imprison dissidents. The government is also struggling to contain rising discontent over the ailing economy, which has been plagued by rampant inflation and financial misery for millions of Iranians, according to regional analysts and Western diplomats. Officials in Tehran have blamed U.S. sanctions for the economic troubles. Every few years, popular anger erupts in the streets. Most recently, demonstrators vented their outrage after the killing of Mahsa Amini, who died in a hospital in 2022 after the country's morality police arrested her for not adhering to the country's dress code, which requires women to conceal their hair and the shapes of their bodies. Iranian opponents of the regime have had mixed reactions to the Israeli strikes. Reza Pahlavi, the eldest son of the deposed shah, who ruled Iran for four decades until he was forced out by mass street protests in 1979, said that the regime in Tehran was 'at its weakest point' and that Iranians now had an opportunity to secure democratic rule. 'Now is our moment,' he said on X. Several prominent Iranian activists and filmmakers, including Nobel laureates Shirin Ebadi and Narges Mohammadi, wrote an op-ed calling for an immediate end to the fighting and demanded that the Iranian government halt uranium enrichment work. The group also denounced attacks on civilians by both Iran and Israel and called for a transition to democracy in Iran. 'Deeply committed to Iran's territorial integrity and the inalienable right of its people to self-determination under genuine sovereignty, we believe that continuing uranium enrichment and the devastating war between the Islamic Republic and the Israeli regime neither serves the Iranian people nor humanity at large,' it said. It added: 'Iran and its people should not be sacrificed for uranium enrichment and the ambitions of the Islamic Republic.' Imprisoned reformist Mostafa Tajzadeh — an ardent critic of Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei — has condemned Israel's barrage, arguing it did not offer a legitimate way to oust the regime. 'I know that some sections of the people are happy with these attacks, because they see them as the only way to change the failed clerical government,' Tajzadeh said in a letter from prison, according to Gooya, a Persian-language news website based in Belgium. 'But even if the war leads to such an outcome, Iran will be left in ruins, where most likely statelessness and chaos will prevail.' Tajzadeh, who was deputy interior minister more than 20 years ago and has favored a rapprochement with the West, called Israel's strikes 'the aggression of a foreign army, on the orders of someone who has been accused of war crimes' — referring to Netanyahu — which, 'in my opinion, lacks political and moral justification and has no precedent in post-constitutional Iran.' So far, there have been no signs of major defections from the country's political leadership, and most Iranians are focused on trying to seek safety amid daily bombing raids from Israel, said Karim Sadjadpour, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. 'I think people are under aerial bombardment, and they're just thinking about staying alive and staying safe, staying secure. They're not thinking about waging political protests,' he told MSNBC. Although an overwhelming majority of Iranians reject the government's rule, there is no opposition in waiting, and the regime remains heavily armed and organized, Sadjadpour said. 'At the moment, they probably are calculating 'kill or be killed,'' he said. 'And they have their fingers on the trigger right now.' Regime change Unlike their Israeli counterparts, President Donald Trump and his top aides have not encouraged the Iranian people to rise up or invoked the idea of ousting the regime. During his first term, Trump's deputies expressed solidarity with the Iranian people and privately argued that economic sanctions could cause the regime to unravel. But Trump and his current Cabinet are outspoken critics of previous U.S. attempts at 'regime change' in Iraq and elsewhere, and some of Trump's supporters worry the United States could be drawn into another military intervention in the Middle East. Daniel Shapiro, a senior fellow at the Atlantic Council think tank who was U.S. ambassador to Israel during the Biden administration, said Israel should stick to a more realistic goal of disabling Iran's nuclear and missile programs and steer clear of trying to shape Iran's internal politics. 'There are certainly plausible scenarios where this becomes a regime-threatening event, but I don't think it's imminent, and I don't think it should be the goal of the military campaign,' Shapiro said. An attempt to change the regime would be a 'massive undertaking' that would depend on factors beyond the control of any outside power, he said. 'That's a recipe for overreach and for getting drawn into a lengthy and potentially fruitless kind of military engagement. The memory is very heavy of what happened to us in Iraq,' Shapiro said. An elite coup? The Israeli assault has exposed widespread vulnerabilities in Iran's security and military establishment, which could fuel power struggles and possible defections, experts said. 'The Tehran regime is unlikely to be toppled by a popular uprising, but it is possible that Iran witnesses an elite coup,' said Lina Khatib, an associate fellow at the London think tank Chatham House. Israel's extensive infiltration of Iran's military and government, illustrated by its ability to assassinate top military commanders, shows that Israel most likely has a degree of support among elements of the Iranian regime, Khatib said. Even though those Iranians might not support Israel itself, they 'share with Israel the objective of regime change,' she said. Israel's bid to topple the Iranian government carries serious risks, including producing an even harder-line regime dominated by members of the country's Revolutionary Guard Corps, experts said. 'Given the history of this regime, given what the Iranian people have suffered, I think it's a wrongheaded and ineffective strategy and one that it may, in fact, backfire on Israel,' Maloney of Brookings said. 'Be careful what you wish for. An Iran that is racked by violence and chaos is not going to be a better neighbor,' she added.
Iraqi News
3 days ago
- Politics
- Iraqi News
Iran confronts Trump with toughest choice yet
Washington – President Donald Trump faces potentially the hardest choice of his time in the White House, as he weighs up whether the United States should join Israel's bombing campaign against Iran. Trump fueled speculation about a US intervention as he dashed back from a G7 summit in Canada, warning Tuesday that the United States could kill Iran's supreme leader, but would not 'for now.' The choice is a monumental one for a president who has vowed throughout both his first and second terms in the Oval Office to get the United States out of its 'forever wars' in the Middle East. 'It's a major political and military choice that could define his legacy in the Middle East,' Behnam Ben Taleblu, director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, told AFP. As Trump met his National Security Council in the White House Situation Room on Tuesday, there were already hints that he was considering abandoning what was until recently his preferred diplomatic route. The most likely option under consideration by Trump would be the use of giant US 'bunker-buster' bombs against Iran's deeply buried Fordow nuclear facility that Israel's bombs could not reach. US officials said dismantling Iran's nuclear program — which Western countries say Tehran is using to seek a nuclear weapon — remained Trump's priority. – Fluid situation – Trump also implied that the assassination of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei is back on the table, just days after a US official said he had waved off such a move by Israel. US officials stressed that Trump had not yet made a decision and was keeping all options on the table, with the situation fluid and changing 'hourly.' The Axios news site said Trump was even considering a new meeting between his top negotiator Steve Witkoff and Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi. A game-changer however would be any Iranian attack on US forces in the region, with an official saying that Trump would not tolerate a 'hair on the back of an American' being harmed. Trump's change of tone is remarkable for coming less than a week after the US president — who has openly talked about wanting to win the Nobel Peace Prize — called on Israel to avoid strikes. But amid frequent phone calls with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, and Netanyahu's own hints about pursuing regime change in Iran, Trump has pivoted. Trump has ordered the USS Nimitz aircraft carrier to the region along with a number of US military aircraft, raising questions about whether he will act. – 'Decisions on your shoulders' – A further hint that action may be on the cards came from the White House's apparent efforts to see off any backlash from his own Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement. There has been growing opposition to any Iran intervention from the isolationist wing of his base, who hold him to his pledge to keep the United States out of wars like those in Iraq and Afghanistan. Vice President JD Vance defended his boss, saying Trump had 'earned some trust' on the issue and 'may decide he needs to take further action to end Iranian (uranium) enrichment.' 'Having seen this up close and personal, I can assure you that he is only interested in using the American military to accomplish American people's goals,' the Iraq veteran said, in a nod to MAGA skeptics. Trump himself meanwhile hinted at his mood as he mulled his critical decision. He reposted a comment by US ambassador to Israel Mike Huckabee, an evangelical Christian, saying God had 'spared' Trump from an assassination attempt last year. 'The decisions on your shoulders I would not want to be made by anyone else. You have many voices speaking to you Sir, but there is only ONE voice that matters. HIS voice,' Huckabee said.
Hindustan Times
3 days ago
- Politics
- Hindustan Times
What is America's GBU-57, the only bomb that can hit Iran's deep nuclear sites?
Amid escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, the GBU-57, a powerful American bunker-buster bomb, is the only known weapon capable of destroying Tehran's deeply buried nuclear facilities. The 30,000-pound (13,607 kg) bomb is designed to penetrate up to 200 feet (61 metres) underground before detonation. It is not part of Israel's arsenal, despite the country's stated objective of preventing Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Donald Trump is considering whether the United States should join the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran. In a meeting with his National Security Council on Monday, officials discussed the option of targeting Iran's underground nuclear site at Fordo, which is used for uranium enrichment. Speaking to reporters at the G7 Summit in Canada on Monday, Trump said that Iran 'will not win' in the ongoing confrontation and urged Tehran to return to negotiations 'before it's too late.' In the wake of Israel's recent strikes on Iranian targets, experts say only one conventional weapon, the GBU-57 bunker-buster bomb,can take out Iran's most heavily fortified nuclear site, Fordo, which remains untouched. 'In less than a week, the regime's missile stockpiles, launchers, military bases, production facilities, nuclear scientists, military command and control has taken a very severe beating,' Behnam Ben Taleblu, director of the Iran program at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD) told news agency AFP. 'But there are still outsized questions as to how efficacious of a strike Israel had against the beating hearts of Iran's nuclear program,' he added. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has confirmed that no damage was done to Fordo, the underground uranium enrichment site south of Tehran. Unlike other facilities like Natanz or Isfahan, Fordo is buried deep—far too deep for Israeli airstrikes to reach. 'All eyes will be on Fordo, which is buried under about 300 feet of rock in central Iran,' Taleblu said. That's why analysts are pointing to the US-made GBU-57, a 30,000-pound non-nuclear bomb designed to penetrate such depths. The US military says the GBU-57, also known as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator, 'is designed to penetrate up to 200 feet underground before exploding,' allowing it to break through layers of rock and concrete. Unlike conventional missiles or bombs that detonate on or near impact, this weapon is built specifically to strike deeply buried targets. 'To defeat these deeply buried targets, these weapons need to be designed with rather thick casings of steel, hardened steel, to sort of punch through these layers of rock,' said Masao Dahlgren, a fellow focused on missile defence at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a Washington-based think tank. The GBU-57, which is 6.6 metres long, also uses a special fuse. 'You need an explosive that's not going to immediately explode under that much shock and pressure,' Dahlgren explained. The design of the bomb began in the early 2000s, and Boeing received an order for 20 units in 2009. The only aircraft capable of carrying the powerful GBU-57 bomb is the American B-2 stealth bomber. Some B-2s were deployed in early May to the joint UK-US base at Diego Garcia, but 'were no longer visible by mid-June,' according to AFP's analysis of satellite images from Planet Labs. 'With their long-range capabilities, B-2s departing from the United States are able to fly all the way to the Middle East to do bombing runs. That's been done before,' said Masao Dahlgren of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Each B-2 can carry two GBU-57s. 'They're not going to just be one and done,' added military analyst Peter Schwartz, noting that multiple bombs would likely be needed. He also said Israel's air superiority over Iran reduces the risk for the bombers. With AFP inputs
