Climate poses big threat to crop production, new study says
Adaptation can't outrun climate change, and rich farming nations — including the U.S. — face jeopardy despite their resources, according to a major new paper on global warming and crop production.
Why it matters: It's the first look at climate effects on staple crops to weigh farmers' "real-world adaptation measures" and fold them into projections of future damage, a summary states.
The Nature paper projects losses for all staples analyzed except rice, though there's lots of regional variation.
The big picture: The paper estimates that for every 1°C of temperature rise, global food production capacity falls by 120 calories per day per person.
"If the climate warms by 3 degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast," said co-author Solomon Hsiang, a Stanford environmental policy professor, in a statement.
Hot and relatively low-income regions are showing more adaptation to date than wealthier breadbaskets in more moderate climates. That's one reason future risks are so high.
State of play: The authors analyze over 12,600 regions in 54 countries, looking at six staple crops — corn, soybeans, rice, wheat, cassava and sorghum.
It's "one of the most comprehensive samples of subnational crop yields ever assembled," the study states.
It sees future gains in some areas, but declines on a global basis for most crops.
Threat level: One reason for the conclusions? Realism.
A clear-eyed look at how farming evolves is needed, the paper states, comparing its work to prior models that assume optimal responses.
In reality, financial constraints, market failures, human error and more influence farming.
What they found: Under a moderate emissions growth case, central estimates in 2100 — with adaptation and income growth — are -12% for corn, -13.5% for wheat, and -22.4% for soybeans, to name three.
But the uncertainty bands are quite big because they're looking well into the future.
What's next: Adaptation and higher wealth alleviate 6% of global losses in 2050 and 12% in 2100 in that moderate emissions scenario.
That's RCP 4.5 for you wonks out there, which still sees enough emissions to warm the world beyond Paris Agreement targets.
The paper also explores a runaway emissions case (RCP 8.5), though many scientists no longer consider this CO2 growth likely.
Zoom in: Check out the country-level projections for various crops.
The paper estimates that even with adaptation, parts of the U.S. could see corn and wheat declines in the 25% range in the moderate emissions case. Here's the same map under runaway emissions.
summary notes.
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Adaptation can't outrun climate change, and rich farming nations — including the U.S. — face jeopardy despite their resources, according to a major new paper on global warming and crop production. Why it matters: It's the first look at climate effects on staple crops to weigh farmers' "real-world adaptation measures" and fold them into projections of future damage, a summary states. The Nature paper projects losses for all staples analyzed except rice, though there's lots of regional variation. The big picture: The paper estimates that for every 1°C of temperature rise, global food production capacity falls by 120 calories per day per person. "If the climate warms by 3 degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast," said co-author Solomon Hsiang, a Stanford environmental policy professor, in a statement. Hot and relatively low-income regions are showing more adaptation to date than wealthier breadbaskets in more moderate climates. That's one reason future risks are so high. State of play: The authors analyze over 12,600 regions in 54 countries, looking at six staple crops — corn, soybeans, rice, wheat, cassava and sorghum. It's "one of the most comprehensive samples of subnational crop yields ever assembled," the study states. It sees future gains in some areas, but declines on a global basis for most crops. Threat level: One reason for the conclusions? Realism. A clear-eyed look at how farming evolves is needed, the paper states, comparing its work to prior models that assume optimal responses. In reality, financial constraints, market failures, human error and more influence farming. What they found: Under a moderate emissions growth case, central estimates in 2100 — with adaptation and income growth — are -12% for corn, -13.5% for wheat, and -22.4% for soybeans, to name three. But the uncertainty bands are quite big because they're looking well into the future. What's next: Adaptation and higher wealth alleviate 6% of global losses in 2050 and 12% in 2100 in that moderate emissions scenario. That's RCP 4.5 for you wonks out there, which still sees enough emissions to warm the world beyond Paris Agreement targets. The paper also explores a runaway emissions case (RCP 8.5), though many scientists no longer consider this CO2 growth likely. Zoom in: Check out the country-level projections for various crops. The paper estimates that even with adaptation, parts of the U.S. could see corn and wheat declines in the 25% range in the moderate emissions case. Here's the same map under runaway emissions. summary notes.
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