Latest news with #ParisAgreement
13 minutes ago
- Science
After the puzzling warmth of Earth in 2023 and 2024, what could 2025 have in store?
After 12 consecutive months with temperatures 1.5 C above the 1850-1900 average, Earth's temperature has now fallen — thanks in part to the end of a natural cycle. According to Berkeley Earth, a non-profit climate analysis organization, the global average temperature was 1.33 C above the pre-industrial average (new window) in the month of May, and the European Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCCS) found that the monthly average was 1.40 C (new window) above the pre-industrial average. (Climate agencies around the world use different methods to analyze global temperatures, hence the difference). While that may seem like good news, the fact is that 2025 is still on track to be one of the top three warmest years on record, according to Zeke Hausfather from Berkeley Earth. With El Niño being firmly over, it is very unlikely at this point that 2025 is going to set a new record, but I still think it's the odds-on favourite to be the second-warmest on record, and it is virtually certain to be a top three warmest year, Hausfather said. Global surface air temperature anomalies for May. Photo: C3S, ECMWF (CBC) El Niño, a natural, cyclical warming in a region of the Pacific Ocean that, coupled with the atmosphere, can cause global temperatures to rise, began in the middle of 2023 and then peaked in 2024, which could account for some of the record warmth that puzzled climate scientists (new window) . What was particularly interesting about the month of May is that land surface temperatures dropped quite a bit compared to the months prior. However, it was still the second warmest on record, after 2024. Hausfather said the sharp drop could have been some internal variability that had kept the land surface temperatures elevated and that perhaps last month was a result of the end of that variability. An important thing to also keep in mind when it comes to what we can expect in terms of 2025 making the record books, winter is when we see the greatest temperature anomalies, Hausfather said. So that could push 2025 even higher than what we're seeing now. On the road to warming trend of 1.5 C Ocean temperatures have decreased in part due the end of El Niño, but remain near record highs. In May, the average ocean temperatures were 0.99 C above the 1850-1900 average, according to Berkeley Earth. At the moment, we are seeing, or we have just seen, a significant ocean heat wave in the North Atlantic, said Carlo Buontempo, director of Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) (new window) . [Ocean temperatures are] cooler than last year and the previous one, but it's warmer than any other years we have in the record. So this is one of these things where it depends [whether] we like to see the glass half full or half empty. It's still a very warm ocean. Though Earth did hit a 12-month average of 1.5 C, that doesn't necessarily mean failure on the Paris Agreement goal of keeping global warming below a threshold of 1.5 C. That would have to happen over a longer period, though there is no set timeframe set out in the agreement. Climate is looked at over long periods, typically spanning 20 or 30 years (new window) . Carbon budget running out However, a study published on Wednesday (new window) in the journal Earth System Science Data, found that — if emissions continue at 2024 rates — we have only three years until we exhaust our carbon budget to keep warming below that 1.5 C threshold. Record-high greenhouse gas emissions are rapidly narrowing the chance of limiting warming to 1.5 C, Joeri Rogelj, professor of climate science and policy at the Centre for Environmental Policy, Imperial College London and co-author of the report, said in a statement. The window to stay within 1.5°C is rapidly closing. Global warming is already affecting the lives of billions of people around the world. Though the that threshold may be breached, climate scientists like to stress that every tenth of a degree matters (new window) . Expect an above-average hurricane season, says NOAA (new window) But to keep warming below 2 C — the threshold initially set by the Paris Agreement — there needs to be a concerted effort to drastically cut CO2 emissions, as Antonio Gutteres, secretary-general of the United Nations, has continually stressed (new window) . Buontempo said that he's hopeful that the tools we have today will at least help us deal with dealing with the outcomes of rising temperatures. I'm an optimist. I've always been an optimist, and my feeling is that, you know, there are plenty of positives in this terrible situation, including the fact that we never had so much information about our planet, Buontempo said. We never had so much knowledge and tools to model the consequences of what's happening now. I mean, the decision is ours, right? Nicole Mortillaro (new window) · CBC News
Time of India
an hour ago
- Science
- Time of India
Time is running out to save the planet, says report. Scientists reveal alarming countdown in new study
Only 130 Billion Tonnes of CO2 Left in Budget Extreme Events and Rising Seas Human Activity Behind Most of the Warming The window to limit global warming to 1.5°C is closing rapidly, and the world has just three years left at current emission levels to prevent breaching that critical threshold, according to a major new scientific report. Over 60 leading climate scientists from around the globe have contributed to the latest annual Indicators of Global Climate Change study, which paints a sobering picture of the planet's current state and the Paris Agreement of 2015, nearly 200 nations have pledged to restrict global temperature rise to within 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. But continued reliance on fossil fuels and high levels of carbon emissions are putting that goal in serious concept of a " carbon budget " helps estimate how much more carbon dioxide (CO2) can be emitted before reaching specific warming thresholds. In 2020, scientists estimated that about 500 billion tonnes of CO2 remained in the global budget to stay within 1.5°C. As of 2025, that budget has shrunk to just 130 billion the current pace of around 40 billion tonnes of emissions per year, that budget will be used up in just over three years. If the world fails to curb emissions drastically, it will be almost impossible to avoid surpassing the 1.5°C threshold. Scientists also warn that the carbon budgets for 1.6°C and 1.7°C would be exhausted within nine years if current trends effects of human-driven climate change are already visible. From record-breaking temperatures, like the UK's 40°C summer in 2022, to faster-than-expected sea-level rise, climate extremes are becoming the new normal. Researchers point out that the rate of warming—currently around 0.27°C per decade—is higher than any period in geological of the excess heat generated by greenhouse gas emissions is being absorbed by the oceans. This not only warms ocean waters but contributes to sea-level rise due to both thermal expansion and melting glaciers. The rate of global sea-level rise has doubled since the 1990s, placing coastal populations at growing risk of flooding and report attributes nearly all of the recent temperature increase to human activity, with natural factors playing a minimal role. For instance, in 2024, global temperatures reached 1.52°C above pre-industrial averages. Although a single year does not constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement, which measures long-term averages, the data underscores how close the world is to crossing the emphasize that every fraction of a degree matters. Even a 0.1°C rise can significantly increase the intensity and frequency of extreme weather events, affect food security, and strain ecosystems. Scientists caution against relying on future technologies to reverse warming, as the scale of CO2 removal required may not be achievable or Cuts NeededProfessor Joeri Rogelj of Imperial College London notes that decisions made over the next decade will shape the Earth's climate for generations. While exceeding 1.5°C is increasingly likely, swift reductions in emissions can still limit the extent of warming and prevent crossing into more dangerous path forward is clear: without substantial and immediate action, the opportunity to meet the targets set out in the Paris Agreement will slip away—possibly within just three years.
Time of India
2 hours ago
- Business
- Time of India
World Bank and IMF climate snub 'worrying': COP29 presidency
The hosts of the most recent UN climate talks are worried international lenders are retreating from their commitments to help boost funding for developing countries' response to global warming . This anxiety has grown as the Trump administration has slashed foreign aid and discouraged US-based development lenders like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund from focussing on climate finance. Developing nations, excluding China, will need an estimated $1.3 trillion a year by 2035 in financial assistance to transition to renewable energy and climate-proof their economies from increasing weather extremes. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Buy Brass Idols - Handmade Brass Statues for Home & Gifting Luxeartisanship Buy Now Undo But nowhere near this amount has been committed. At last year's UN COP29 summit in Azerbaijan, rich nations agreed to increase climate finance to $300 billion a year by 2035, an amount decried as woefully inadequate. Live Events Azerbaijan and Brazil, which is hosting this year's COP30 conference, have launched an initiative to plug the shortfall that includes expectations of "significant" contributions from international lenders. But so far only two -- the African Development Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank -- have responded to a call to engage the initiative with ideas, said COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev. "We call on their shareholders to urgently help us to address these concerns," he told climate negotiators at a high-level summit in the German city of Bonn this week. "We fear that a complex and volatile global environment is distracting" many of those expected to play a big role in bridging the climate finance gap, he added. His team travelled to Washington in April for the IMF and World Bank's spring meetings hoping to find the same enthusiasm for climate lending they had encountered a year earlier. But instead they found institutions "very much reluctant now to talk about climate at all", said Azerbaijan's top climate negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev. This was a "worrisome trend", he said, given expectations these lenders would extend the finance needed in the absence of other sources. "They're very much needed," he said. The United States, the World Bank's biggest shareholder, has sent a different message. On the sidelines of the April spring meetings, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the bank to focus on "dependable technologies" rather than "distortionary climate finance targets." This could mean investing in gas and other fossil fuel-based energy production, he said. Money matters Under the Paris Agreement, wealthy developed countries -- those most responsible for global warming to date -- are obligated to pay climate finance to poorer nations. But other countries, most notably China, do make their own voluntary contributions. Finance is a source of long-running tensions at UN climate negotiations. Donors have consistently failed to deliver on past finance pledges, and committed well below what experts agree developing nations need to prepare for the climate crisis. The issue flared again this week in Bonn, with nations at odds over whether to debate financial commitments from rich countries during the formal meetings. European nations have also pared back their foreign aid spending in recent months, raising fears that budgets for climate finance could also face a haircut. At COP29, multilateral development banks (MDBs) led by the World Bank Group estimated they could provide $120 billion annually in climate financing to low and middle income countries, and mobilise another $65 billion from the private sector by 2030. Their estimate for high income countries was $50 billion, with another $65 billion mobilised from the private sector. Rob Moore, of policy think tank E3G, said these lenders are the largest providers of international public finance to developing countries. "Whilst they are facing difficult political headwinds in some quarters, they would be doing both themselves and their clients a disservice by disengaging on climate change ," he said. The World Bank in particular has done "a huge amount of work" to align its lending with global climate goals. "If they choose to step back this would be at their own detriment, and other banks like the regionally based MDBs would likely play a bigger role in shaping the economy of the future," he said. The World Bank did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Int'l Business Times
2 hours ago
- Business
- Int'l Business Times
World Bank And IMF Climate Snub 'Worrying': COP29 Presidency
The hosts of the most recent UN climate talks are worried international lenders are retreating from their commitments to help boost funding for developing countries' response to global warming. This anxiety has grown as the Trump administration has slashed foreign aid and discouraged US-based development lenders like the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund from focussing on climate finance. Developing nations, excluding China, will need an estimated $1.3 trillion a year by 2035 in financial assistance to transition to renewable energy and climate-proof their economies from increasing weather extremes. But nowhere near this amount has been committed. At last year's UN COP29 summit in Azerbaijan, rich nations agreed to increase climate finance to $300 billion a year by 2035, an amount decried as woefully inadequate. Azerbaijan and Brazil, which is hosting this year's COP30 conference, have launched an initiative to plug the shortfall that includes expectations of "significant" contributions from international lenders. But so far only two -- the African Development Bank and the Inter-American Development Bank -- have responded to a call to engage the initiative with ideas, said COP29 president Mukhtar Babayev. "We call on their shareholders to urgently help us to address these concerns," he told climate negotiators at a high-level summit in the German city of Bonn this week. "We fear that a complex and volatile global environment is distracting" many of those expected to play a big role in bridging the climate finance gap, he added. His team travelled to Washington in April for the IMF and World Bank's spring meetings hoping to find the same enthusiasm for climate lending they had encountered a year earlier. But instead they found institutions "very much reluctant now to talk about climate at all", said Azerbaijan's top climate negotiator Yalchin Rafiyev. This was a "worrisome trend", he said, given expectations these lenders would extend the finance needed in the absence of other sources. "They're very much needed," he said. The United States, the World Bank's biggest shareholder, has sent a different message. On the sidelines of the April spring meetings, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent urged the bank to focus on "dependable technologies" rather than "distortionary climate finance targets." This could mean investing in gas and other fossil fuel-based energy production, he said. Under the Paris Agreement, wealthy developed countries -- those most responsible for global warming to date -- are obligated to pay climate finance to poorer nations. But other countries, most notably China, do make their own voluntary contributions. Finance is a source of long-running tensions at UN climate negotiations. Donors have consistently failed to deliver on past finance pledges, and committed well below what experts agree developing nations need to prepare for the climate crisis. The issue flared again this week in Bonn, with nations at odds over whether to debate financial commitments from rich countries during the formal meetings. European nations have also pared back their foreign aid spending in recent months, raising fears that budgets for climate finance could also face a haircut. At COP29, multilateral development banks (MDBs) led by the World Bank Group estimated they could provide $120 billion annually in climate financing to low and middle income countries, and mobilise another $65 billion from the private sector by 2030. Their estimate for high income countries was $50 billion, with another $65 billion mobilised from the private sector. Rob Moore, of policy think tank E3G, said these lenders are the largest providers of international public finance to developing countries. "Whilst they are facing difficult political headwinds in some quarters, they would be doing both themselves and their clients a disservice by disengaging on climate change," he said. The World Bank in particular has done "a huge amount of work" to align its lending with global climate goals. "If they choose to step back this would be at their own detriment, and other banks like the regionally based MDBs would likely play a bigger role in shaping the economy of the future," he said. The World Bank did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Axios
3 hours ago
- Business
- Axios
Climate poses big threat to crop production, new study says
Adaptation can't outrun climate change, and rich farming nations — including the U.S. — face jeopardy despite their resources, according to a major new paper on global warming and crop production. Why it matters: It's the first look at climate effects on staple crops to weigh farmers' "real-world adaptation measures" and fold them into projections of future damage, a summary states. The Nature paper projects losses for all staples analyzed except rice, though there's lots of regional variation. The big picture: The paper estimates that for every 1°C of temperature rise, global food production capacity falls by 120 calories per day per person. "If the climate warms by 3 degrees, that's basically like everyone on the planet giving up breakfast," said co-author Solomon Hsiang, a Stanford environmental policy professor, in a statement. Hot and relatively low-income regions are showing more adaptation to date than wealthier breadbaskets in more moderate climates. That's one reason future risks are so high. State of play: The authors analyze over 12,600 regions in 54 countries, looking at six staple crops — corn, soybeans, rice, wheat, cassava and sorghum. It's "one of the most comprehensive samples of subnational crop yields ever assembled," the study states. It sees future gains in some areas, but declines on a global basis for most crops. Threat level: One reason for the conclusions? Realism. A clear-eyed look at how farming evolves is needed, the paper states, comparing its work to prior models that assume optimal responses. In reality, financial constraints, market failures, human error and more influence farming. What they found: Under a moderate emissions growth case, central estimates in 2100 — with adaptation and income growth — are -12% for corn, -13.5% for wheat, and -22.4% for soybeans, to name three. But the uncertainty bands are quite big because they're looking well into the future. What's next: Adaptation and higher wealth alleviate 6% of global losses in 2050 and 12% in 2100 in that moderate emissions scenario. That's RCP 4.5 for you wonks out there, which still sees enough emissions to warm the world beyond Paris Agreement targets. The paper also explores a runaway emissions case (RCP 8.5), though many scientists no longer consider this CO2 growth likely. Zoom in: Check out the country-level projections for various crops. The paper estimates that even with adaptation, parts of the U.S. could see corn and wheat declines in the 25% range in the moderate emissions case. Here's the same map under runaway emissions. summary notes.
