Circana: Restaurant traffic stalled in 2024, but diner spending rose 2%
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Consumer spending at restaurants rose 2% in 2024, according to Circana's 2025 Definitive U.S. Restaurant Ranking Report.
Consumers spent $1 million at restaurants every minute last year and almost everyone in the United States went to a restaurant within the top 50 chains, Circana said.
Restaurants within the top 50 chains each capture e annual consumer spending of over $1.35 billion. These restaurant chains comprise 61% of the entire restaurant industry spending, but account for only 24% of all restaurant locations.
While consumer spending was up overall, some of the largest chains, including McDonald's, Starbucks, Dairy Queen, Burger King and Cracker Barrel, had flat spending growth. But in the current macroeconomic environment, flat could be a good thing.
'Flat is the new up,' said David Portalitan, senior vice president and industry advisor, food and foodservice at Circana. 'You have to work really, really hard in the current environment just to stay even.'
Larger chains had greater difficulty boosting growth than smaller chains, which had a larger percentage change in consumer spend year over year. However, the large chains did see some positive shifts following value offerings, he said. Value deals generally drove traffic up more than 5%, but traffic was typically negative in the absence of a meal deal.
'The value wars, so to speak, have certainly moved the needle with consumers,' Portalatin said. 'We have seen consumers increase their perception of value. Their overall satisfaction with value per price paid has been increasing toward the end of 2024 so consumers are recognizing those deals.'
Value will continue to be part of the equation this year, reflected by value offerings from McDonald's and other chains. But value is not necessarily about the price point, especially since consumers are already committing to paying more when they order out or dine out, compared to making dinner at home, Portalatin said.
'Consumers are placing an emphasis on other aspects of the value equation: the quality, those craveable indulgences that I cannot make for myself at home, the customer service, the experience, the convenience,' Portalatin said. 'These are the things that are differentiators in the restaurant landscape.'
Despite McDonald's recent traffic struggles, the chain has an extremely high annual buyer penetration at 86%, meaning a majority of consumers visit McDonald's at least once a year. Comparatively, the second-highest penetration rate is 55% for Taco Bell.
'McDonald's is such a large and ubiquitous chain and they're conveniently located — you can't go anywhere in this country that a McDonald's is not relatively convenient for you,' Portalatin said. 'That's a big part of the quick service restaurant format, the convenience of access and speed of service, and that just makes them relevant to most consumers at some point, on some occasion.'
Even with relatively stagnant restaurant traffic, Circana did see movement among chains. Dutch Bros joined the top 50 list for the first time, and Raising Cane's and Wingstop rising up in the ranks thanks to 31% and 41% increases in consumer spending, respectively. Dutch Bros increased consumer spending by 26%.
'What this report reveals is that there are restaurant operators out there who are not only alive and well, but who are thriving and growing and moving up the list and ranking,' Portalatin said.
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