Dr Pali Lehohla: Debating the labour force survey- a response to Fourie's critique
Gerrie Fourie.
Image: File.
When Ashraf Gadar said he sensed anger in my voice during an interview on the topical labour force survey, I said certainly there is anger in my voice.
This is because if Fourie's rendition of the Labour Force is an understanding and representative of what goes on the in Boardrooms of business in South Africa then only god must help us.
Through Statistics South Africa the citizens of this country have engaged in a dialogue about their lives and have made South Africa and South Africans discoverable and knowable to themselves and about themselves.
Anything else equivalent to what Fourie was saying is abracadabra and can only be adjudicated by magicians.
You see StatsSA runs a national statistics system which implies that it has designed a project based on systems design and driven by systems thinking.
In such a system I had to listen to Tito Mboweni when he said, Statistician-General the Producer Price Index (PPI) is fine but the Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not make a lot of sense.
Video Player is loading.
Play Video
Play
Unmute
Current Time
0:00
/
Duration
-:-
Loaded :
0%
Stream Type LIVE
Seek to live, currently behind live
LIVE
Remaining Time
-
0:00
This is a modal window.
Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window.
Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan
Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan
Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan
Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque
Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps
Reset
restore all settings to the default values Done
Close Modal Dialog
End of dialog window.
Advertisement
Video Player is loading.
Play Video
Play
Unmute
Current Time
0:00
/
Duration
-:-
Loaded :
0%
Stream Type LIVE
Seek to live, currently behind live
LIVE
Remaining Time
-
0:00
This is a modal window.
Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window.
Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan
Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan
Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan
Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque
Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps
Reset
restore all settings to the default values Done
Close Modal Dialog
End of dialog window.
Next
Stay
Close ✕
I had to listen to John Stopforth of Investec when he said the housing index is wobbly.
I had to listen to Trevor Manuel when he arrived huffing and puffing from Automn meetings in Washington asking about why the CPI is stubbornly on the up. Certainly, the system did not cohere then.
The reason was that the national treasury had stubbornly refused to depart with a R 6 million for a general household survey that would have provided us weights for housing measurement component in the CPI. We put up a fight, they would not budge.
Since 2003, StatsSA has not made any silly mistake save for a typo on the manufacturing statistics matrix over which I tendered my resignation in 2005, but the resignation was not processed.
The typo in a thousand cells is a discussion for another day, suffice to say yet again there, the 2005 typo emerged from a 2003 dossier alleging corruption and theft of money and the process I intended to implement to avoid such was sabotaged internally. It is a topic for another day.
There was an arduous process of reengineering the CPI which included direct price observation in outlets by data gatherers instead of telephone based surveys which could run the risk of the Portuguese pyjama CPI syndrome.
One is mindful of the fact that citizens inform themselves by freely providing their most precious of themselves to Statistics South Africa in the firm belief that society cares and those to whom society has entrusted with the care will respect their trust which is the result of what they have provided for policy attention.
StatsSA processes the responses dutifully following acclaimed standards.
The United Nations Statistical Commission convenes annually in New York to address methods.
Over five days the bean counters of the world prepare and present methodological programmes on population, economic and social statistics.
They interrogate geospatial data and now the focus is on information technology and the world of data and how statisticians lead in this role.
The World Data Forum which Statistics South Africa had the benefit of hosting as an inaugural programme of the commission in 2017 shows where Statistics South Africa ranks in the world.
Whilst questioning and contesting is not a problem by itself, but failure to inform oneself before contesting can be a source of great anger to the listener, especially when the soliloquy becomes equivalent to somnambulism.
Reading Fourie's soliloquy was annoying because it showed that he did not bother to read the methodological notes because if he did, he would have answered himself.
But more irritating and annoying were the ANC MPs in the portfolio committee and Minister Tau who amplified Fourie's soliloquy and resisted to pay attention to the MKP and EFF MPs who actually understood and explained in detail not only the numbers but expatiated on the context of their meaning and implications.
As though it was not enough my brother Siyabonga Radebe has amplified the debate and I thought I should shed light on this before it goes out of hand based on misinformation and speculation.
You see Bungani I have to provide history to the QLFS.
I may appear abrasive but I am actually factual and the concerns and comparative analysis is all answered in a report that prompted StatsSA to adopt a quarterly labour Force survey. In 2004 government was concerned that despite rise in fixed capital formation and growth in the economy, there was no corresponding growth in jobs.
Then we were conducting the Labour Force Survey twice in a year. Given the concern, I roped in two experts who provided a critique on the labour force survey and one of them was from Brazil.
They made a number of observations and recommendations that we adopted.
These included amongst others line of questioning but the most fundamental recommendation was to run a quarterly labour force survey to capture seasonality.
We then roped in two Canadian experts from Statistics Canada who helped us to answer and implement the recommendations and their counterpart group was under the leadership of a formidable Yandi Mpetsheni who ran with the ball over the four years of implementation of methods. A parallel survey of the old method and the new method was conducted throughout and a major one for implementation was in 2007.
Linking factors for the old and new survey were implemented and in 2008 the new quarterly survey was implemented after a four year period of careful work. Bungani's balancing act from interesting corners of the mouth is appreciated.
However, if he read the expert critique and recommendations, as well as the report on implementation of the recommendations which considered especially comparisons with Brazil and other countries, he will discover that he has no case to argue.
There is no legacy to protect on my part Bungani nor language to polish. When a lie is told there is no reason to give it a different word.
It is simply a lie and when an argument does not make sense it is called nonsense in the English language and when nonsense is given wheels and wings to fly it is called rubbish.
Those who wish to opine should do so from research rather than from a hailer.
Two issues stood out in the expert report, the question of agricultural activity linked to land ownership and high levels of concentration answers Bungani's balancing and supposition act.
That is why South Africa is unique and an outlier.
The land question is not just a fleeting imagination by the EFF and other parties in Parliament.
It is at the core of differentiated employment status with all other countries referred to. South Africa Land Act systematized impoverishment of skill, practice, participation and empowerment.
So, it is not surprising that its unemployment is an outlier, it is an outlier in land ownership too. All the other speculations have no room to sleep in this debate.
Closed case.
If there is anything important that Fourie's provocation elicited in this debate is the land question and parliament should engage fully if it wants unemployment of South Africa to be in line with that of other comparable countries.
Dr Pali Lehohla is a Professor of Practice at the University of Johannesburg, a Research Associate at Oxford University, a board member of Institute for Economic Justice at Wits and a distinguished Alumni of the University of Ghana. He is the former Statistician-General of South Africa.
Dr Pali Lehohla is a Professor of Practice at the University of Johannesburg, among other hats.
Image: Supplied
BUSINESS REPORT
Visit: www.businessreport.co.za
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
TimesLIVE
10 minutes ago
- TimesLIVE
CRL chair's claims against its executive director are 'defamatory', Forsa says
Freedom of Religion South Africa (Forsa) has strongly denied what it termed false and defamatory allegations made by chairperson of the CRL Rights Commission Thoko Mkhwanazi-Xaluva on Thursday. During a media briefing convened by the commission, Mkhwanazi-Xaluva alleged Forsa and its executive director Michael Swain had accused her, Cheryl Zondi and/or the Cheryl Zondi Foundation of receiving R1.5m from the National Lotteries Commission. Zondi was a witness in the rape trial of Nigerian televangelist Timothy Omotoso. Forsa said this donation was reported widely in the media. It said a press release from the National Lotteries Commission of December 13 2018 stated the Cheryl Zondi Foundation had partnered with the Izimvo 447 NPC and received R1.5m to aid their work for those exploited in sacred spaces. 'Neither Michael Swain, nor Forsa, has ever alleged financial misconduct of any kind. Such claims are false and wholly without any factual basis at all,' the organisation said in a statement. Forsa said it was disappointed that Mkhwanazi-Xaluva did not first seek clarity or engage with it before making public accusations and threatening legal action. 'Her subsequent laying of criminal charges against Michael Swain and Forsa is seen as vexatious and unfounded. It appears to be a personally motivated attack designed to intimidate and deter Forsa (or others) from opposing the chair's agenda to push again for state regulation of religion.' Forsa said it reserved all legal rights in its response to this matter and was considering appropriate legal remedies in response to these false and harmful allegations. 'These include a formal demand for retraction as well as amending its extant damages claim for defamation.' Forsa said it was not against any person or institution, including Mkhwanazi-Xaluva or the commission. 'On the contrary, Forsa supports all of its legitimate and constitutional objectives. However, our singular focus is the protection and advancement of religious freedom and related constitutional rights in South Africa.' Forsa said a letter from more than 20 senior religious leaders representing about 12-million South Africans was sent to President Cyril Ramaphosa in 2019, raising several concerns, including that Mkhwanazi-Xaluva simultaneously served as CRL chairperson and deputy chair of the Cheryl Zondi Foundation. The commission was a Chapter 9 institution, created to be independent and impartial, accountable only to parliament, Forsa said. 'Thus, its chair must avoid bias, preferential treatment and dual loyalties. Arguably, this includes keeping clear boundaries when interacting with organisations, especially advocacy organisations, linked to matters before the commission.' Forsa said under Mkhwanazi-Xaluva's leadership at the time, the CRL strongly pushed for state regulation of religion. 'A wide diversity of faith communities strongly opposed the CRL's proposal. The 'conflict of interest' concern arose because the CRL chair cited the Omotoso case as a high-profile example to justify the CRL's proposed regulation model (via peer review councils, licensing of religious leaders, etc).' Her appointment as the deputy chair of the Cheryl Zondi Foundation, therefore, created a strong impression of an overlap of interest and influence. 'On the one hand, the chair of the CRL is tasked with impartial interaction with faith communities, constitutional compliance, and safeguarding diverse religious rights. Acting as deputy chair of the Cheryl Zondi Foundation is an advocacy-aligned — not neutral — position.' This raised legitimate concerns about a conflict of interest on the part of the chairperson, Forsa said. 'It must be stressed that this in no way raises any concern or casts any suspicion on Cheryl Zondi or the Cheryl Zondi Foundation.' Since being reappointed, Mkhwanazi-Xaluva has continued promoting proposals for state regulation of religion, including the introduction of peer review mechanisms, Forsa said. It said it had consistently opposed this course of action, repeatedly warning that state regulation of religion was unnecessary, unconstitutional, unworkable and unaffordable. 'In Forsa's public education efforts to point out the dangers to religious freedom of state regulation of religion, we gave the historical background to the current context. One part of this extensive presentation referenced the 2019 letter to the president in good faith and with full transparency.' Forsa said the 2019 letter did not accuse Mkhwanazi-Xaluva of theft or corruption of any kind and did not contain any accusations against Zondi or the Cheryl Zondi Foundation at all.
The Citizen
3 hours ago
- The Citizen
Does South Africa need a political party led by Floyd Shivambu?
Is it a matter of time until the axe falls on Shivambu's head? Launching a new political party may not be the best move for Floyd Shivambu, the former secretary-general of uMkhonto weSizwe (MK) party, according to a political analyst. On Thursday, Shivambu told reporters that he plans to consult various sectors of society about forming a new political party. This follows his public fallouts with the founder of the MK party, Jacob Zuma and his daughter, Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla. Speaking to The Citizen on Friday, political analyst Sanet Solomon said South Africa's ballot paper is already congested with a number of political parties, some of whom even fail to make it to parliament. 'I believe that his [Shivambu's] question has been answered before; the answer is no! The country already has 1 613 registered political parties. The country's challenges are well documented. 'What South Africa currently needs is service delivery, good governance, accountable leaders, and capable state institutions,' he said. Is Shivambu 'reading the room'? Solomon said that despite the wide range of political parties available to voters, many South Africans continue to face the realities of a stagnant economy and one of the most unequal societies in the world. 'While Shivambu did express the desire to consult different communities, it should be noted that the establishment of a new party suggests that he is not reading the room. 'People are disheartened by the lack of action from politicians and need accountability.' Solomon said Shivambu may also have to gain public trust if he is to launch a new political party. 'Given Floyd's current disposition, it may be advisable to take a few months to reflect and re-strategise as voters may distrust him owing that he had already represented the African National Congress (ANC), the EFF and MK [party] in such a short space of time. 'This political 'flip-flopping' is frowned upon,' she said. What happens to career politicians? Solomon said Shivambu's predicament in the MK party sheds light on a broader challenge facing career politicians. 'What happens once you have exhausted all your political options, but have never worked in another environment? 'As the country's political landscape shifts, future politicians may have to consider acquiring additional skill sets that allow them to move beyond the political realm,' she said. ALSO READ: Zuma's tirade against Shivambu indicates he is 'no longer useful to him' Still a member of the MK party Meanwhile, Shivambu reiterated that leaving the EFF for the MK party was the best political decision he has ever made. He took some jabs at the EFF saying he had learnt more in the MK party in the short space of time compared to the long years he had spent in the EFF. The MK party has not officially responded to Shivambu's remarks made during a press briefing held in his personal capacity. The party had removed him from the position of secretary-general for allegedly going on an unauthorised trip to Malawi where he met with Prophet Shepherd Bushiri. NOW READ: Shivambu says money stolen from MK party – and he won't resign
The South African
4 hours ago
- The South African
'False prophets': Mmusi Maimane takes swipe at Floyd, Bushiri
Build One South Africa (BOSA) leader Mmusi Maimane has taken a swipe at Floyd Shivambu's political standing with the MK Party and his controversial visit to Prophet Shepard Bushiri, a fugitive of South Africa. On Thursday, 19 June, the former secretary-general held a press briefing in which he expressed interest in forming his own party. He also used the opportunity to insult his former parties, the EFF and the ANC. Outspoken Floyd also indirectly threw shade at Duduzile Zuma-Sambudla, the daughter of former president Jacob Zuma. With Floyd Shivambu's press conference a hot topic on social media, Mmusi Maimane used his X account to mock the MK MP's headlines. Hinting at his visit to the wanted Malawian pastor, and Floyd's prospective party, Mmusi posted: 'Join @BuildOneSA. We will not Bushiri you'. Addressing South Africans, Mmusi Maimane continued in another post: 'You deserve a political party that does not chase false prophets. You deserve a political party that is not a family business. 'Join the party of ubuntu and professionalism, not umuntu and bushirism'. Throwing more shade – this time at Mzansi's viral drug feind – he added: 'Others, they have Alostro'. Apart from politics, Mmusi Maimaine is also an ordained minister and an elder at the Liberty Church in Johannesburg. The father of three – who has a masters in theology – also regularly preaches at churches around South Africa and around the world. He said of his choice of career: 'Politics is about two things: it's about government and it's about influence…the only way they (Christians) will become in charge of the nation is if the nation votes for them.' Let us know by leaving a comment below, or send a WhatsApp to 060 011 021 1 . Subscribe to The South African website's newsletters and follow us on WhatsApp , Facebook , X, and Bluesky for the latest news.
