Latest news with #StatisticsSouthAfrica
IOL News
a day ago
- Health
- IOL News
SA's youth unemployment breeds sexual exploitation, GBFV scourge among young women
A recent study by the National Shelter Movement of South Africa (NSMSA) has unveiled the troubling reality that young women are increasingly vulnerable to gender-based violence and mental health crises, exacerbated by economic hardships and social media trends influencing dangerous relationships with older men. Image: File South Africa's reported 62.4% youth unemployment rate has made young women vulnerable to gender-based violence and femicide (GBVF), anxiety, depression, suicidal ideation, and psychosis due to substance abuse as a result of transactional sex borne out of limited employment opportunities. This is according to the National Shelter Movement of South Africa (NSMSA), following a study presented by Clinical Psychologist Sibongile Sibanyoni, which revealed shocking evidence that economic hardship, gender inequality, and social media trends are driving the "blesser/blessee" relationships between older men and young women and girls in South Africa. While politicians and some in the private sector ponder the country's economic hardships due to high levels of unemployment, NSMSA National Coordinator, Anisa Moosa, stated: 'Our biggest concern about these blesser/blessee relationships is their contribution to gender-based violence. The dependency of a young girl on a grown man is dangerous, not only for her physical well-being but psychologically too.' Early this month, the Quarter 1 2025 quarterly Labour Force Survey from Statistics South Africa reported that youth unemployment has risen by over 10 percentage points in the last 10 years, indicating that young people aged 15-34 face an unemployment burden of 46.1%, which has gone up from 36.9% recorded in 2015. This comes as Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie recently courted controversy when he said that the country's unemployment rate, which was 32.9% for the first quarter, would be closer to 10% if self-employed people and those working in informal markets were counted. Last month, Sibanyoni, who presented her research findings in a webinar hosted by the NSMSA, indicated that 82.8% of young African women in impoverished areas were engaging in sexual relationships with older men, adding that there is reliable evidence of psychological impact on some of them. Her findings are also backed by a 2017 Wits University study by Oncemore Mbeve, a doctoral researcher in the African Centre for Migration and Society whose study, titled, "Understanding transactional sex among young women in South Africa: a study based in KwaZulu-Natal, Eastern Cape and Mpumalanga provinces", linked transactional sex with limited economic opportunities among women in South Africa and other parts of the continent. "Transactional sex in young women in Sub-Saharan Africa, including South Africa, is rife, and financial constraints are a major driver. Quantitative studies conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa suggest that young women who are involved in transactional sex are nearly two or more than three times vulnerable to HIV. The young women are involved in transactional sex with older men to access financial needs for survival as well as for purposes of consumerism." Sibanyoni's study also uncovered that there is a common thread of early relationships with absent or unreliable caregivers that influences an individual's ability to form and maintain emotional bonds in adulthood. The lack of financial dependability on caregivers causes the young women to develop a dependency and need for security. Reacting to the insights from the NSMSA and Sibanyoni's findings, Siyabulela Monakali, spokesperson for Ilitha Labantu, an anti-GBVF movement, confirmed a "devastating and heartbreaking" link between high levels of youth unemployment and transactional sex. Monakali stated that this has made the situation unbearable for women and young girls. "South Africa's youth unemployment rate, currently at an alarming 63.9%, according to Stats SA, creates a harsh reality for many young women and girls, especially in townships and vulnerable communities. Without access to economic opportunities, they often face the impossible choice of relying on transactional sexual relationships to meet their basic needs. "What is deeply troubling is that perpetrators are fully aware of this vulnerability. They exploit young women's desperate situations, using their economic power to control and manipulate them. This is not a matter of choice or agency. It is a reflection of systemic failure to provide the economic and social safety nets that young women deserve," he said.
News24
a day ago
- Business
- News24
Capitec CEO isn't wrong: Unemployment data needs work
• For more financial news, go to the News24 Business front page. In June 2025, Capitec CEO Gerrie Fourie suggested that South Africa's real unemployment rate might be closer to 10% than the official 32.9% - the reaction was swift and unforgiving. Critics accused him of 'madness,' misunderstanding labour metrics, and trivialising the economic struggles of millions. But amid the furore, Fourie touched a nerve, one we can no longer afford to ignore. We need to be forthright. Any figure of the unemployment rate represents an enduring crisis that continues to erode our democratic dividend and undermine our efforts to build a more equitable and prosperous society for all South Africans. At the same time, we must all visit the fundamental assumptions guiding our understanding of the problem itself. What if the way we measure unemployment is not just analytically contested but structurally flawed? What if the very tools we rely on to understand our labour market are obscuring its most vital dynamics? This is not to say that our government, through Statistics South Africa, has been dishonest or missed the point through the years, but rather that the instruments and definitions used, while internationally accepted, may not fully capture the unique complexities and realities of South Africa's diverse economy, particularly its significant informal sector. South Africa's massive informal sector fundamentally challenges standard unemployment metrics. Millions officially classified as 'unemployed' are actively engaged in vital, though precarious, economic activities, such as street vending, waste recycling, home-based production, subsistence farming and numerous micro-services. These generate essential income and sustain communities, forming a vast parallel economy. Therefore, standard definitions, which prioritise formal employment structures like fixed hours, registered businesses, and regular wages, fail to capture this fluid, irregular, and self-directed work, misrepresenting significant economic participation as idleness. The fact that one is not seeking employment, is discouraged, or does not report any 'income' or 'wage' in the conventional sense, should not imply economic inactivity or irrelevance. Limitations Our unique economic landscape, shaped by historical exclusion and inequality, demands context-sensitive metrics. The rigid employed-unemployed binary obscures critical nuances, including underemployment, sporadic work, unpaid family labour and discouraged workers who actively survive informally. Relying on tools designed for smaller informal sectors misdiagnoses exclusion and risks policies that fail to support or integrate this vital economic segment. Admittedly, the official unemployment rate, derived from Statistics South Africa's Quarterly Labour Force Survey (QLFS), uses International Labour Organisation (ILO) standards, as rightly confirmed by our Statistician-General, Risenga Maluleke. It is important to acknowledge that although the ILO provides a standardised framework for measuring unemployment, it has limitations. A key limitation is the exclusion of 'discouraged workers,' those who have stopped actively seeking work, from the official count. This can lead to an underestimation of the true extent of unemployment, particularly among women. Additionally, the ILO definition relies on individuals actively seeking work in the past four weeks, which may not capture those who have been unemployed for extended periods and may have become less active in their job search. These standards are internationally recognised and sound in principle; however, they have limitations. Statistically invisible They were likely designed for economies where formality dominates, yet they tend to undervalue the reality of emerging markets where survivalist and informal economies are not only widespread but essential. It is necessary to emphasise that South Africa has a particularly complex labour market: sophisticated in parts yet exclusionary in others. Many South Africans are not unemployed in the literal sense; they work long hours selling food on the roadside, fixing shoes, braiding hair, or delivering packages via digital platforms. However, because their activities often lack legal status, banking records, or employer verification, they are statistically invisible. This invisibility is not benign. As Michel Foucault noted, how a state 'sees' its citizens, through censuses, surveys and indicators, is not just descriptive but political. It determines where resources flow, which sectors are prioritised, and who is included in the policy imagination. Troubling reality Across the Global South, countries with expansive informal sectors report strikingly low unemployment rates. India, with an informality rate above 90%, records unemployment rates under 5%. Mexico, Nigeria, Zimbabwe and Ethiopia—despite structural challenges—report similarly low rates. South Africa, with an informal economy estimated to comprise 40% of total employment, somehow reports the highest unemployment rate in the world. There is a profoundly troubling reality in our labour market, mirroring trends across the Global South: the relentless informalisation of the African worker. As scholars like Guy Standing illuminate, this creates a growing 'precariat' or workers stripped of stable contracts, benefits and legal protections, existing in perpetual insecurity. This is evident in models like Shoprite's Sixty60 delivery service. Reports suggest deep labour rights transgressions and potential circumvention of migration laws, potentially relying heavily on vulnerable foreign nationals and drivers operating without proper licensing. While such practices may fuel corporate profits and boost tax collections, they fundamentally erode worker dignity and flout our migration laws. Enhanced tax revenue may be problematic when achieved through the systemic exploitation and informalisation of labour. We urgently need businesses committed to ethical conduct, recognising that loyal and honest citizenship demands treating workers with dignity, not as disposable cost centres. Dogmatic fixation on formality This crisis reflects our nation's unresolved struggle: building a vibrant economy that simultaneously protects labour rights. Our history is one where economic progress was built upon the foundation of cheap, exploitable black labour. Disturbingly, many companies remain anchored in this unpalatable logic. Their substantial profits are too often subsidised by poverty wages and resistance to adhering to labour laws, perpetuating a modern form of exploitation. The Shoprite case highlights a critical flaw in our current statistical lens: even those formally recognised as 'employed' can face severe decent work deficits – insecure incomes, unsafe conditions and denied benefits - which our rigid metrics fail to capture. Formal employment status, in such contexts, offers no guarantee of dignity or security. The human cost of this informalisation extends far beyond wages into wellbeing and visibility. Informal wage workers at the foot of the formal economy, such as Sixty60 riders, face significantly heightened health and safety risks due to unregulated work environments. In South Africa, informal workers experience injury rates 2-3 times higher than their formal counterparts, alongside severe psychological stress, with women disproportionately affected. Critically, this precarity is structurally reinforced, since only 10.7% of informal enterprises hold municipal licenses, thereby denying workers access to basic infrastructure and legal recourse. Unlike the often entrepreneurial, family-driven informality seen in parts of West Africa or South Asia, South Africa's informal sector reflects not prosperity, but our dogmatic fixation on formality. Suppressing informality does not create formality; instead, it traps workers in a vulnerable, invisible underclass. Right tools, wrong terrain The Sixty60 paradox, characterised by soaring profits and tax contributions alongside alleged deep-seated worker indignity, exposes the dangerous fallacy of equating state revenue with societal well-being or ethical progress. True dignity requires labour security and voice, neither of which is inherent in precarious gig work. To turn moral clarity into action, we will work with other government entities, including Statistics South Africa and the National Treasury, to address our concerns. We will also ramp up our labour inspection efforts to improve enforcement and compliance. Our view is that this disconnect is not purely economic but methodological. We could be using the right tools for the wrong terrain. Again, we must stress that this is not about pushing the black majority further into an abyss; we acknowledge vast swathes of surplus labour that continue to characterise the South African labour market. However, our immediate concern is solely whether the statistical measures accurately reflect the nature of economic activity, particularly informal survivalist efforts, within this complex reality. As the Department of Employment and Labour, we are addressing this definitional challenge. In our internal policy discussions, we are advancing a more nuanced classification of employment, distinguishing between formal unemployment (individuals actively seeking or available for formal sector work) and economic participation (those actively engaged in the informal economy or self-employed outside regulated sectors). This is not an attempt to mask the crisis or rewrite history. Instead, it is a genuine bid for clarity, so that policymakers, economists and communities alike can operate from a shared and realistic understanding of South Africa's complex labour market dynamics. Resilience is not success Yet, our data underscore a profound crisis: official unemployment stands at 32.9%, rising to 43.1% under the expanded definition (which includes discouraged job seekers). Youth unemployment (15–24 years) is staggering at 62.4%, while graduate unemployment stands at 11.7%, revealing deep-seated structural challenges, even for the educated. Furthermore, there are currently 3.8 million young people classified as NEET (Not in Employment, Education or Training). These figures demand urgent, comprehensive reform and a labour market framework that recognises the diverse forms and complex realities of all economic activity, both formal and informal. Behind each statistic lies a human story of effort, ambition, exclusion and resilience. It is essential to stress that this resilience should not be mistaken for success; the informal sector is not thriving, but merely surviving under conditions of precarity and exclusion. Research from the UCT-Harvard Growth Lab identifies South Africa's informality rate as 'abnormally low' relative to peer economies, not due to prosperity, but rather to state-imposed constraints, including hostile zoning laws, bureaucratic red tape and over-policing. Crucially, unlike entrepreneurial, family-driven informality in West Africa or South Asia, South Africa's informal economy is predominantly employee-based, precarious and excluded from support systems. This vulnerability is strikingly illustrated by the fact that only 10.7% of informal enterprises held a valid municipal licence in 2023. These figures demand urgent, comprehensive reform and a labour market framework that recognises the diverse forms, complex realities and systemic barriers facing all economic activity, both formal and informal. We need to distinguish between informal and illegible. Just because someone is not counted does not mean they are not making a contribution. New tools needed If we want a policy that reflects the realities on the ground, we need new tools. A hybrid data ecosystem, combining the QLFS with alternative indicators such as mobile money flows, anonymised bank transaction data and digital platform work patterns, can provide a more complete and human-centred picture of labour in South Africa. Crucially, unlocking this invisible economy requires collaboration. Private sector players, including Capitec, which processes billions of township-based transactions annually, may hold part of the key to decoding our invisible economy. However, this must be done with ethical safeguards, public oversight and institutional collaboration, not in corporate isolation. Gerrie Fourie may have overstated his case, but he also illuminated a critical truth: our unemployment narrative is not just technical; it is moral. A country that fails to see the economic contributions of its people, no matter how unorthodox, fails to recognise and thus harness its potential. We are at a crossroads. Either we continue to wage policy wars based on partial metrics, or we build a statistical framework that honours the full complexity of labour in South Africa. One pathway leads to ongoing crises, while the other results in inclusive renewal. Let us choose to see. Let us choose to count. Let us choose to act. Nomakhosazana Meth is Minister of Employment and Labour.
IOL News
a day ago
- Business
- IOL News
SA inflation holds at 2. 8% in May, but rise in food prices especially meat
There was a modest rise in food prices according to Stats SA inflation data released this week. Image: Independent Newspapers Archives Annual consumer price inflation in South Africa held steady at 2.8% in May 2025, unchanged from April, according to data released by Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) this week. While overall price pressures remain subdued, the re-emergence of food inflation is raising red flags according to an economist. Stats SA reported that the consumer price index (CPI) increased by 0.2% month-on-month in May. The main contributors to the annual inflation rate were housing and utilities (4.5%), food and non-alcoholic beverages (4.8%), and alcoholic beverages and tobacco (4.3%). Economist Casey Sprake of Anchor Capital said, 'While fuel disinflation continued to exert downward pressure, this was counterbalanced by a modest rise in food prices and a stable core inflation print.' Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, remained unchanged at 3.0% year-on-year, indicating that underlying price dynamics are still relatively contained. 'Durable goods categories, particularly furnishings and household equipment, remain deep in deflation, with price declines persisting for over 17 consecutive months,' said Sprake. Fuel prices continued to offer some relief, with a 1.1% month-on-month drop and a sharp 14.9% year-on-year decline, the largest since October 2024. Petrol is now 15.9% cheaper than a year ago, and diesel prices have dropped by 12.6%. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Next Stay Close ✕ But food prices surged, especially in the meat category. Stats SA noted that the food and non-alcoholic beverages category was the only major group contributing to the monthly CPI change, increasing by 1.1% month-on-month. Sprake warned, 'This uptick was driven primarily by a sharp increase in meat prices, particularly beef, where inflation rose from 3.0% in April to 4.4% in May.' The rise in food costs is largely attributed to supply-side shocks such as a widespread outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease and high feed costs. Fruit and vegetable prices also saw double-digit increases, intensifying pressure on consumer food baskets. While the inflation print supports the case for the South African Reserve Bank to maintain a steady interest rate, Sprake noted that geopolitical risks and trade uncertainties could complicate the policy path. 'We expect the Monetary Policy Committee to hold rates steady in July,' she said. Stats SA will release the next CPI data on 23 July. THE MERCURY
IOL News
a day ago
- Business
- IOL News
Everyday items in South Africa cost R1 808 more than a year ago
Oils and fats prices increased 5.6% year-on-year, while the price of fruits, nuts, and vegetables jumped between 10.3% and 13.5% year-on-year. Despite this positive trend, the compounding nature of inflation means that prices for essential goods continue to rise each month. According to Statistics South Africa's latest inflation report for May 2025, the consumer price index stands at 2.8% year-on-year, a notable improvement from the 5.2% recorded a year prior. The cost of living in South Africa has shown signs of slowing, with an annual decline of 2.4 percentage points; however, average monthly bills have still increased by 2.6% from May of last year, resulting in an additional R21 000 in annual expenses for households. Based on a basket of goods the average South African may be spending their money on each month, and taking compounding into account against the base price, every day items cost R1 808 more than a year ago. This is based on the most recent prices for this year, and doesn't take cost variations into account. Even without historical price data on items such as DSTV Compact Plus not being readily available, the increase amounts to R21 702 over the year. And that's allowing for lower price hikes of one item offsetting the increase in others. It's worse if you smoke or drink – those items on average went up year-on-year by 4.3%. If your weekend party stash of drink cost R1 000 last May, it went up by R43. That, based on advertisements from liquor stores, is worth almost half the cost of a six pack of beer.
The Citizen
2 days ago
- Business
- The Citizen
Inflation unchanged in May at 2.8% as economists expected
While the inflation rate remained under the bottom band of the Reserve Bank's inflation target, it is not expected to stay there. The inflation rate remained unchanged in May at 2.8% as economists expected, but geopolitical risks could see it drift higher than expected in the months ahead. Statistics South Africa (Statistics SA) announced on Wednesday morning that the inflation rate remained the same as in April, with food prices being the only category that pushed inflation up in May by 0.2% compared to April. Jee-A van der Linde, senior economist at Oxford Economics Africa, says the outcome was in line with their expectations, and they continue to see a mild increase in price inflation heading into the second half of 2025. The main contributors to the inflation rate in May were housing and utilities, which increased by 4.5% and contributed 1.0 percentage point, food and non-alcoholic beverages, which increased by 4.8% and contributed 0.9 percentage point and alcoholic beverages and tobacco, which increased by 4.3% and contributed 0.2 percentage point. Statistics SA noted that higher meat prices (+4.4%) were a key driver of prices, with the biggest monthly increase recorded for beef products. Van der Linde points out that South Africa is in the grip of a widespread outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, which intensified in June and will have an impact on domestic food prices going forward. ALSO READ: Inflation steady in May but food prices still increased Fuel levy offset lower fuel prices in May, keeping inflation at 2.8% 'Elsewhere, the latest data shows that domestic fuel prices declined further in June, but this is likely to be offset by the simultaneous increase in general fuel levies this month. Mid-month fuel prices data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) indicates that petrol and diesel are likely to cost more in July after the latest upsurge in international oil prices.' He also notes that international oil prices rallied after Israel's strikes on Iran, with Brent Crude Oil prices briefly hitting $80.0 per barrel before settling around $74 per barrel. 'Due to the flare-up in tensions in the Middle East, we now forecast Brent Crude Oil prices to average $67.8 per barrel in 2025, slightly higher than our previous estimate of $67.3 per barrel. 'While oil supply remains unaffected, further escalation could see Iran close the Strait of Hormuz, cutting off around 20% of global supply and potentially driving prices to $120 per barrel. At that point, oil prices would be near the levels recorded when Russia invaded Ukraine and domestic fuel prices shot up to record levels.' However, Van der Linde says the latest inflation data does not alter their updated inflation outlook, and they still forecast inflation will average 3.4% in 2025 compared to 4.4% in 2024. 'Although headline inflation will drift higher throughout the second half of the year due to base effects, the overall outlook remains benign and unchanged from our earlier views, although several risks have emerged recently that could lead to prices increasing faster.' ALSO READ: What Israel–Iran conflict means for South African economy Risks to inflation outlook worsened over past few days Busisiwe Nkonki and Johannes (Matimba) Khosa, economists at the Nedbank Group Economic Unit, also expect inflation to drift upwards in the second half of the year, but still average a muted 3.5% in 2025. However, they say, risks to the inflation outlook have worsened in recent days as the rand weakened, and global oil prices jumped due to the conflict in the Middle East. 'Food prices will increase as the base continues to normalise. However, favourable crop prices resulting from good rainfall, as well as increased livestock slaughtering, will contain the upside. The biggest concern is the rand. 'While the domestic currency has been resilient in recent weeks, it remains vulnerable to unfavourable global economic and geopolitical developments. 'The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) will have to weigh the benign inflation outlook against the potential upside risks emanating from the highly volatile and uncertain global environment. At this stage, we still see room for the Sarb to cut further in July.'
