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IOL News
4 days ago
- Politics
- IOL News
Dr Pali Lehohla: Debating the labour force survey- a response to Fourie's critique
Gerrie Fourie. Image: File. When Ashraf Gadar said he sensed anger in my voice during an interview on the topical labour force survey, I said certainly there is anger in my voice. This is because if Fourie's rendition of the Labour Force is an understanding and representative of what goes on the in Boardrooms of business in South Africa then only god must help us. Through Statistics South Africa the citizens of this country have engaged in a dialogue about their lives and have made South Africa and South Africans discoverable and knowable to themselves and about themselves. Anything else equivalent to what Fourie was saying is abracadabra and can only be adjudicated by magicians. You see StatsSA runs a national statistics system which implies that it has designed a project based on systems design and driven by systems thinking. In such a system I had to listen to Tito Mboweni when he said, Statistician-General the Producer Price Index (PPI) is fine but the Consumer Price Index (CPI) does not make a lot of sense. Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Advertisement Video Player is loading. Play Video Play Unmute Current Time 0:00 / Duration -:- Loaded : 0% Stream Type LIVE Seek to live, currently behind live LIVE Remaining Time - 0:00 This is a modal window. Beginning of dialog window. Escape will cancel and close the window. Text Color White Black Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Background Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Opaque Semi-Transparent Transparent Window Color Black White Red Green Blue Yellow Magenta Cyan Transparency Transparent Semi-Transparent Opaque Font Size 50% 75% 100% 125% 150% 175% 200% 300% 400% Text Edge Style None Raised Depressed Uniform Dropshadow Font Family Proportional Sans-Serif Monospace Sans-Serif Proportional Serif Monospace Serif Casual Script Small Caps Reset restore all settings to the default values Done Close Modal Dialog End of dialog window. Next Stay Close ✕ I had to listen to John Stopforth of Investec when he said the housing index is wobbly. I had to listen to Trevor Manuel when he arrived huffing and puffing from Automn meetings in Washington asking about why the CPI is stubbornly on the up. Certainly, the system did not cohere then. The reason was that the national treasury had stubbornly refused to depart with a R 6 million for a general household survey that would have provided us weights for housing measurement component in the CPI. We put up a fight, they would not budge. Since 2003, StatsSA has not made any silly mistake save for a typo on the manufacturing statistics matrix over which I tendered my resignation in 2005, but the resignation was not processed. The typo in a thousand cells is a discussion for another day, suffice to say yet again there, the 2005 typo emerged from a 2003 dossier alleging corruption and theft of money and the process I intended to implement to avoid such was sabotaged internally. It is a topic for another day. There was an arduous process of reengineering the CPI which included direct price observation in outlets by data gatherers instead of telephone based surveys which could run the risk of the Portuguese pyjama CPI syndrome. One is mindful of the fact that citizens inform themselves by freely providing their most precious of themselves to Statistics South Africa in the firm belief that society cares and those to whom society has entrusted with the care will respect their trust which is the result of what they have provided for policy attention. StatsSA processes the responses dutifully following acclaimed standards. The United Nations Statistical Commission convenes annually in New York to address methods. Over five days the bean counters of the world prepare and present methodological programmes on population, economic and social statistics. They interrogate geospatial data and now the focus is on information technology and the world of data and how statisticians lead in this role. The World Data Forum which Statistics South Africa had the benefit of hosting as an inaugural programme of the commission in 2017 shows where Statistics South Africa ranks in the world. Whilst questioning and contesting is not a problem by itself, but failure to inform oneself before contesting can be a source of great anger to the listener, especially when the soliloquy becomes equivalent to somnambulism. Reading Fourie's soliloquy was annoying because it showed that he did not bother to read the methodological notes because if he did, he would have answered himself. But more irritating and annoying were the ANC MPs in the portfolio committee and Minister Tau who amplified Fourie's soliloquy and resisted to pay attention to the MKP and EFF MPs who actually understood and explained in detail not only the numbers but expatiated on the context of their meaning and implications. As though it was not enough my brother Siyabonga Radebe has amplified the debate and I thought I should shed light on this before it goes out of hand based on misinformation and speculation. You see Bungani I have to provide history to the QLFS. I may appear abrasive but I am actually factual and the concerns and comparative analysis is all answered in a report that prompted StatsSA to adopt a quarterly labour Force survey. In 2004 government was concerned that despite rise in fixed capital formation and growth in the economy, there was no corresponding growth in jobs. Then we were conducting the Labour Force Survey twice in a year. Given the concern, I roped in two experts who provided a critique on the labour force survey and one of them was from Brazil. They made a number of observations and recommendations that we adopted. These included amongst others line of questioning but the most fundamental recommendation was to run a quarterly labour force survey to capture seasonality. We then roped in two Canadian experts from Statistics Canada who helped us to answer and implement the recommendations and their counterpart group was under the leadership of a formidable Yandi Mpetsheni who ran with the ball over the four years of implementation of methods. A parallel survey of the old method and the new method was conducted throughout and a major one for implementation was in 2007. Linking factors for the old and new survey were implemented and in 2008 the new quarterly survey was implemented after a four year period of careful work. Bungani's balancing act from interesting corners of the mouth is appreciated. However, if he read the expert critique and recommendations, as well as the report on implementation of the recommendations which considered especially comparisons with Brazil and other countries, he will discover that he has no case to argue. There is no legacy to protect on my part Bungani nor language to polish. When a lie is told there is no reason to give it a different word. It is simply a lie and when an argument does not make sense it is called nonsense in the English language and when nonsense is given wheels and wings to fly it is called rubbish. Those who wish to opine should do so from research rather than from a hailer. Two issues stood out in the expert report, the question of agricultural activity linked to land ownership and high levels of concentration answers Bungani's balancing and supposition act. That is why South Africa is unique and an outlier. The land question is not just a fleeting imagination by the EFF and other parties in Parliament. It is at the core of differentiated employment status with all other countries referred to. South Africa Land Act systematized impoverishment of skill, practice, participation and empowerment. So, it is not surprising that its unemployment is an outlier, it is an outlier in land ownership too. All the other speculations have no room to sleep in this debate. Closed case. If there is anything important that Fourie's provocation elicited in this debate is the land question and parliament should engage fully if it wants unemployment of South Africa to be in line with that of other comparable countries. Dr Pali Lehohla is a Professor of Practice at the University of Johannesburg, a Research Associate at Oxford University, a board member of Institute for Economic Justice at Wits and a distinguished Alumni of the University of Ghana. He is the former Statistician-General of South Africa. Dr Pali Lehohla is a Professor of Practice at the University of Johannesburg, among other hats. Image: Supplied BUSINESS REPORT Visit:
Time of India
4 days ago
- Business
- Time of India
Gold price prediction: Why gold just soared past $3,400 — will Iran-Israel conflict, safe-haven demand, and Fed rate bets keep driving gold price higher?
Gold price jumps above $3,400 amid Iran–Israel conflict and soft U.S. inflation data- Gold price has surged past $3,400, touching a high of $3,443.55, as rising geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel pushed investors toward safe-haven assets. This rally has brought gold within striking distance of its all-time high near $3,500. At the same time, softer U.S. inflation data has strengthened expectations that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates, further supporting gold's upward momentum. Analysts believe that unless there's a sharp shift in Fed policy or a de-escalation in Middle East tensions, gold's bullish run may continue. Here's a deeper look into what's driving this sharp rise. Why is gold price climbing so fast amid Middle East tensions? The ongoing Iran–Israel conflict has triggered a wave of safe-haven buying, with gold leading the charge. According to The Times and FXEmpire , the heightened geopolitical risk has made investors wary of equities and currencies, shifting their focus toward traditionally stable assets like gold. Gold prices climbed as high as $3,443.55 on Sunday night, not far from the all-time peak of around $3,500. The rise came as reports of missile exchanges and military strikes sent oil prices soaring by more than 10%, amplifying fears of broader instability in the region. Key highlights: Gold (XAU/USD) surged above $3,400 , hitting a high of $3,443.55 , approaching record levels. The rally is fueled by escalating Iran-Israel tensions, intensifying safe-haven demand. Weak U.S. dollar and softer inflation data (CPI & PPI) boosted expectations of Fed rate cuts, adding upward pressure on gold. Analysts see next major resistance at $3,450–$3,500; a breakout could trigger further bullish momentum. Immediate support lies around $3,380–$3,420, suggesting a possible short-term pullback if profit-taking begins. Overbought technical indicators hint at consolidation unless fresh geopolitical or economic catalysts emerge. Oil prices spiked 10% due to Middle East turmoil, reinforcing global inflation concerns and gold's hedge appeal. Traders are watching the upcoming Fed meeting closely; any dovish stance could reignite bullish sentiment. Market remains highly sensitive to any new developments in the Iran-Israel conflict or U.S. economic data. Long-term bullish trend for gold remains intact as long as safe-haven flows and Fed easing bets stay dominant. by Taboola by Taboola Sponsored Links Sponsored Links Promoted Links Promoted Links You May Like Alarma económica que arrasa en Entre Ríos - Listo en un día Verisure Alarma Ver oferta Undo How is soft U.S. inflation data helping gold prices? Gold also found strong support from recent U.S. economic data. The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) numbers came in softer than expected, suggesting inflation is cooling. This raised market hopes that the Federal Reserve may start cutting interest rates sooner rather than later. As FXEmpire and report, lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold, making it more attractive to investors. Combined with a weakening U.S. dollar, these factors have strengthened gold's case. Is gold price overbought or does it still have room to rise? While the gold rally has been strong, some technical analysts are urging caution. FXStreet reports that gold is currently trading above $3,440, with resistance levels between $3,500 and $3,600. A failure to hold above $3,375 could trigger a short-term pullback toward $3,349. FX Leaders highlights that gold appears overbought in the near term, with resistance at $3,451 and support in the $3,379 to $3,420 range. The market could see a pause in momentum, especially if investors start locking in profits. Live Events What could impact gold prices this week? Several key events this week could influence the next move in gold: Federal Reserve meeting : If the Fed maintains a dovish tone or signals possible rate cuts in its dot plot, gold could move higher. However, a hawkish stance might trigger profit-taking. Geopolitical news : Any signs of de-escalation in the Iran–Israel conflict could cool safe-haven demand, potentially slowing gold's rise. U.S. economic data : Stronger-than-expected numbers could strengthen the dollar and Treasury yields, putting pressure on gold prices. These developments will be closely watched by traders, especially as gold flirts with a major psychological level around $3,500. What's happening in related markets like oil and equities? The Middle East tensions have also spilled into other asset classes. Oil prices have jumped over 10% due to concerns about supply disruptions, according to Stocktwits and The Guardian . This has reinforced inflation fears and safe-haven demand, indirectly supporting gold. Meanwhile, global stock markets have shown some resilience but remain sensitive to energy-driven inflation spikes. Analysts from and The Times note that any sharp rise in oil prices could eventually weigh on equities if it leads to renewed inflationary pressure and delays in Fed rate cuts. What's the outlook for gold in the near term? Gold is currently sitting in a bullish zone, supported by a combination of global tension, softer inflation data, and a dovish Fed outlook. As long as these drivers remain in place, a breakout above $3,500 is possible. However, overbought technical conditions mean that a short-term correction back to the $3,380–$3,420 range can't be ruled out. Investors should keep a close eye on Fed commentary and geopolitical headlines, which are likely to dictate gold's direction in the days ahead. The gold price rally above $3,400 is being powered by a unique blend of geopolitical risk and economic softness. While the fundamentals remain strong, traders are watching for signs of exhaustion near key resistance levels. This week's Fed meeting and further developments in the Middle East could determine whether gold pushes toward a new high—or takes a breather. FAQs: Q1: Why is gold price rising so fast in June 2025? Gold price is rising due to Iran–Israel tensions and soft U.S. inflation data supporting rate-cut hopes. Q2: Will gold price go above $3,500 soon? Yes, if tensions continue and the Fed stays dovish, gold may break past $3,500.
Mint
4 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Gold prices cross ₹1 lakh mark: Can they rise further? Experts share short-term targets
Gold prices today surged to a historic high in the domestic futures market, as rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran reignited global risk aversion. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold August futures briefly touched an unprecedented level of ₹ 1,01,078 per 10 grams before stabilising around ₹ 1,00,290 by mid-morning on June 16. While the latest flare-up in the Middle East—marked by fresh hostilities between Israel and Iran—lent strength to global safe-haven demand, gains were tempered by the strengthening US dollar and cautious investor sentiment ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision scheduled for June 18. Israel has launched renewed military action against Iran, escalating fears of an all-out regional conflict, which, according to Manav Modi, Senior Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, has pushed investors towards safe-haven assets, with domestic gold hovering around ₹ 1 lakh and international prices near $3,500 an ounce. The US has warned of potential involvement, and Israel has declared a state of emergency. This geopolitical uncertainty has sharply increased the risk premium across markets. Modi added that US inflation data has come in softer than expected, yet the Producer Price Index (PPI) slightly exceeded estimates, reflecting a mixed macroeconomic environment. Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, said that the renewed tensions have overshadowed the recent positive US CPI report, reducing the chances of an imminent Fed rate cut. She warned that any collapse in nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US could trigger another spike in gold prices. Additionally, investor attention is also fixed on the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision. Despite cooling inflation, the Fed is expected to maintain a cautious stance due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies and global trade dynamics. NS Ramaswamy, Head of the Commodity Desk at Ventura Securities, noted that gold is benefiting from "risk-off" sentiment. He added that global central banks are on track to accumulate more than 1,000 metric tons of gold in 2025—marking the fourth consecutive year of robust official sector buying, underscoring gold's role as a strategic hedge. Colin Shah, Managing Director of Kama Jewelry, pointed out that the weakening rupee is further fueling domestic gold prices. Although prices crossed ₹ 1 lakh, Shah expects resistance in the short term and anticipates some correction amid volatility. He projects gold to trade between ₹ 1,00,200 and ₹ 1,00,500 in the near term, with medium-term direction contingent on global developments. From a technical standpoint, Ventura's Ramaswamy sees key resistance for COMEX gold at $3,476 and forecasts a potential surge to $3,540 if current momentum sustains. On MCX, August gold futures are supported at ₹ 98,900, with potential upside targets around ₹ 1,02,000 in the short term, provided geopolitical risks persist. In international markets, support levels are seen at $3,400 and $3,345, while short-term bullish targets remain intact as long as safe-haven flows dominate market sentiment.
Mint
5 days ago
- Business
- Mint
Gold prices cross ₹1 lakh mark: Can they rise further? Experts share short-term targets
Gold prices today surged to a historic high in the domestic futures market, as rising geopolitical tensions between Israel and Iran reignited global risk aversion. On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold August futures briefly touched an unprecedented level of ₹ 1,01,078 per 10 grams before stabilising around ₹ 1,00,290 by mid-morning on June 16. While the latest flare-up in the Middle East—marked by fresh hostilities between Israel and Iran—lent strength to global safe-haven demand, gains were tempered by the strengthening US dollar and cautious investor sentiment ahead of the US Federal Reserve's policy decision scheduled for June 18. Israel has launched renewed military action against Iran, escalating fears of an all-out regional conflict, which, according to Manav Modi, Senior Analyst at Motilal Oswal Financial Services, has pushed investors towards safe-haven assets, with domestic gold hovering around ₹ 1 lakh and international prices near $3,500 an ounce. The US has warned of potential involvement, and Israel has declared a state of emergency. This geopolitical uncertainty has sharply increased the risk premium across markets. Modi added that US inflation data has come in softer than expected, yet the Producer Price Index (PPI) slightly exceeded estimates, reflecting a mixed macroeconomic environment. Aksha Kamboj, Vice President of the India Bullion and Jewellers Association, said that the renewed tensions have overshadowed the recent positive US CPI report, reducing the chances of an imminent Fed rate cut. She warned that any collapse in nuclear negotiations between Iran and the US could trigger another spike in gold prices. Additionally, investor attention is also fixed on the upcoming US Federal Reserve policy decision. Despite cooling inflation, the Fed is expected to maintain a cautious stance due to uncertainties surrounding US tariff policies and global trade dynamics. NS Ramaswamy, Head of the Commodity Desk at Ventura Securities, noted that gold is benefiting from "risk-off" sentiment. He added that global central banks are on track to accumulate more than 1,000 metric tons of gold in 2025—marking the fourth consecutive year of robust official sector buying, underscoring gold's role as a strategic hedge. Colin Shah, Managing Director of Kama Jewelry, pointed out that the weakening rupee is further fueling domestic gold prices. Although prices crossed ₹ 1 lakh, Shah expects resistance in the short term and anticipates some correction amid volatility. He projects gold to trade between ₹ 1,00,200 and ₹ 1,00,500 in the near term, with medium-term direction contingent on global developments. From a technical standpoint, Ventura's Ramaswamy sees key resistance for COMEX gold at $3,476 and forecasts a potential surge to $3,540 if current momentum sustains. On MCX, August gold futures are supported at ₹ 98,900, with potential upside targets around ₹ 1,02,000 in the short term, provided geopolitical risks persist. In international markets, support levels are seen at $3,400 and $3,345, while short-term bullish targets remain intact as long as safe-haven flows dominate market sentiment. Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
Yahoo
13-06-2025
- Business
- Yahoo
Pre-Markets in Red on Middle-East Geopolitical Conflicts
We had thought, as of around mid-day yesterday, that all the major news items for the week had already passed. After all, both Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) reports for May had already been released, marking the state of inflation in the U.S. economy. Also Weekly Jobless Claims and the small-business survey from NFIB came out. But all of it pales in comparison to Israel's military strike on Iran yesterday. The unprecedented event has immediately sent up oil and gold prices on the global market. Both West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and Brent crude prices are up over +7% this morning, pushing both levels over $70 per barrel. Just 5 weeks ago, oil was at 4-year lows: $57 per barrel. This is shaping up to be the largest one-day gain in oil prices for at least 5 has reportedly attacked Iran's nuclear facilities, located at various regions throughout the Mid-Eastern country. But analysts have long theorized that retaliation could come in terms of shutting down oil ports in the region, making availability scare and driving up the price per barrel. Those spot prices have already gotten a head start; we hadn't seen $70 oil since April 2nd, literally the day the U.S. slapped massive reciprocal tariffs on virtually all of its trade prices have surged in a similar manner — long seen as a hedge against global economic turmoil. After notching all-time highs two months ago to the day, at $3425 per ounce, gold prices have launched into another orbit: $3450 at this hour, up +1.4% so far today. For some context, these levels are more than double where we were at October 2022 lows of $1644 per yields are up also, but in a much more measured fashion. In fact, they're coming off relatively low levels in the past few days, and are now +4.36% on the 10-year, +3.93% on the 2-year and +4.86% on the 30-year. These yields have been policing U.S. market exuberance so far in 2025; it remains to be seen if it will also have an impact on current the Dow and S&P 500 are down -1% at this hour. The Nasdaq, which has again led market indexes over the past month, is down -1.3% currently. The small-cap Russell 2000 remains the laggard, as it has since early February, is down -1.4% so far this morning. After the market opens, a preliminary June Consumer Sentiment report is due, expected to come in a couple points higher month over month, to 54.0. But to be honest, the market will rest heavily on this morning's headlines — including what happens next, in terms of Iran's retaliation, etc. — and whether or not indexes can notch their third-straight week higher. Want the latest recommendations from Zacks Investment Research? Today, you can download 7 Best Stocks for the Next 30 Days. Click to get this free report This article originally published on Zacks Investment Research ( Zacks Investment Research Error in retrieving data Sign in to access your portfolio Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data Error in retrieving data
