Inflation in Pakistan rises to 3.5% in May 2025
Headline Inflation YoY
Headline Inflation YoY
Pakistan's headline inflation clocked in at 3.5% on a year-on-year basis in May 2025, a reading higher than that of April 2025 when it stood at 0.3%, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Monday.
On a month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.2% in May 2025, as compared to a decrease of 0.8% in the previous month and a decrease of 3.2% in May 2024.
CPI inflation average during 11MFY25 stood at 4.61% as compared to 24.52% in 11MFY24.
Inflation in Pakistan has been a significant and persistent economic challenge, particularly in recent years. In May 2023, the CPI inflation rate hit a record high of 38%. However, it has been on a downward trajectory since then.
Last month, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut the key interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 11%, the lowest policy rate since March 2022 (9.75%).
The central bank has cut the rate by 1,100bps since June from an all-time high of 22%.
The CPI reading is higher than the government's expectations.
The Finance Ministry in its monthly economic report expected inflation to ease to between 1.5% and 2% year-on-year in May, before picking up to 3%-4% in June.
'Exports and remittances are expected to maintain their upward trend in the coming months, keeping the current account within a manageable range,' the ministry said.
Meanwhile, the latest CPI reading was also higher than the projections made by several brokerage houses.
JS Global projected Pakistan's headline inflation to inch up to 2.7% in May.
'Pakistan's CPI is expected to clock in at 2.7% for May. The base effect is now fading, signalling a return to normalised price trends. This is likely to take 11MFY25 average inflation to 4.7%, down from 11MFY24 average of 24.9%,' said JS Global.
Meanwhile, Insight Securities, another brokerage house, expected headline inflation to clock in at 3.4% in May.
Urban, rural inflation
The PBS said CPI inflation urban increased to 3.5% on year-on-year basis in May 2025, as compared to 0.5% of the previous month and 14.3% in May 2024.
On month-on-month basis, it increased to 0.1% in May 2025, as compared to a decrease of 0.7% in the previous and a decrease of 2.8% in May 2024.
CPI inflation rural increased to 3.4% on year-on-year basis in May 2025 as compared to a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month and 8.2% in May 2024.
On month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.5% in May 2025 as compared to a decrease of 1.0% in the previous month and a decrease of 3.9% in May 2024
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Business Recorder
a day ago
- Business Recorder
Inflation expected to lower slightly in Pakistan
After inching up to 3.5% YoY in May, Pakistan's headline inflation is expected to lower slightly, clocking in at 3.1% in June, as per a report by brokerage house JS Global. Pakistan's headline inflation hit 3.5% on a year-on-year basis in May 2025, a reading higher than that of April 2025, when it stood at 0.3%, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data. 'Following a 3.5% YoY reading in May 2025, the CPI is expected to be at 3.1% YoY in June 2025. The base effect is now fading, signalling a return to normalised price trends,' said JS Global. This would take the FY25 average to 4.6%, down from the FY24 average of 23.9%, it added. It may be noted that the inflation reading in Pakistan rose to a record 38% on a year-on-year basis in May 2023, the highest level since data was made available beginning in July 1965. As per JS Global, food inflation for June is predicted to rise 2.8% on a YoY basis, which was 0.97% last year, owing to the dissipation of the base effect. 'Nevertheless, price decreases in certain food items are likely to lead to a MoM decline in food inflation. Housing, Gas and Electricity is projected to post a 4% YoY decline in Jun-2025, primarily due to a reduction in electricity tariffs,' it projected. Meanwhile, core inflation is expected to clock in around 8.5% YoY in June. It added that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) maintained the policy rate at 11% in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held earlier this week. It noted that from June 2024 till June 2025, the policy rate has been cut by a total of 1,100bp, declining from a peak of 22% to 11%. 'Potential disruptions in global supply chains, and an uncertain outlook for global commodity prices were the key risks highlighted by MPC,' JS Global said. SBP is likely to meet in July 2025 for its next MPC meeting.
Business Recorder
a day ago
- Business Recorder
Weekly inflation in Pakistan up 0.27%
ISLAMABAD: The Sensitive Price Index (SPI)-based inflation for the week ended June 19, 2025 registered an increase of 0.27 per cent owing to an escalation in the prices of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) 14.86 per cent, potatoes 3.75 per cent, diesel 3.10 per cent, gur 2.25 per cent, chicken 2.17 per cent, sugar 2.13 per cent, petrol 1.88 per cent, mustard oil 1.12 per cent, powdered milk 0.97 per cent, rice basmati broken 0.84 per cent, cooked daal 0.68 per cent, and tea prepared 0.39 per cent. The SPI data released here on Friday by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) on year-on-year (YoY) depicted a decrease of 2.06 owing to decrease in the prices of onions 63.22 per cent, tomatoes 56.11 per cent, electricity charges for Q1 41.63 per cent, garlic 32.58 per cent, maash 19.09 per cent, potatoes 17.97per cent, tea Lipton 17.93 per cent, wheat flour 14.16 per cent, chicken six per cent, masoor 5.87 per cent, rice IRRI-6/9 witnessed a reduction of 4.47per cent and chilies powder 3.86 per cent. Weekly SPI up by 0.02pc While on YoY major increase was observed in the prices of ladies sandal 55.62 per cent, moong 28.90 per cent, sugar 26.19 per cent, powdered milk 25.93 per cent, LPG 21.77 per cent eggs 17.90 per cent, beef 15.74 per cent, vegetable ghee 2.5kg 13 per cent, vegetable ghee 1kg 12.73 per cent), bananas 12.47 per cent, gur 10.85 per cent, firewood 10.80per cent and cooked daal 10.64 per cent. On the other hand, a decrease is observed in the prices of eggs (9.53 per cent), tomatoes (5.62 per cent), garlic (1.03 per cent), pulse gram (0.35 per cent), vegetable ghee 2.5kg (0.17 per cent), cooking oil 5 litre (0.03 per cent) and bananas and firewood (0.01 per cent) each. During the week, out of 51 items, prices of 23 (45.10 per cent) items increased, eight (15.69 per cent) items decreased and 20 (39.21 per cent) items remained stable. The SPI for the lowest consumption group with monthly income up to Rs17,732 witnessed an increase of 0.05 per cent and was recorded at 299.50 points from previous week's 299.40 points. The SPI for consumption groups of Rs17,732 to 22,888 with an increase of 0.05 per cent was recorded at 295.36 against previous week's calculation of 295.20, the SPI for the income group Rs22,889-29,517 with an increase of 0.10per cent was recorded at 320.05 points against previous week's recording of 319.72 points, the SPI for the income group Rs29,518-44,175 with an increase of 0.13 per cent was recorded at 310.88 points against previous week's reading of 310.47 and SPI for the monthly income group above Rs44,175 recorded an increase of 0.42 per cent from 313.60points to 312.29. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Business Recorder
2 days ago
- Business Recorder
PTI questions PBS figures
ISLAMABAD: The Opposition Leader in National Assembly Omar Ayub on Friday severely criticised the government, accusing it of relying on what he called 'outdated and unreliable' statistical data – warning that such practices were eroding evidence-based policymaking and stalling economic progress. Talking to journalists following a meeting with World Bank officials and a briefing by Commerce Ministry on tariff-related issues, he expressed serious concerns over the credibility of figures published by the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS), citing glaring inconsistencies. Referring to the recently released Economic Survey of Pakistan, he described many of the indicators as 'absurd,' claiming the figures were 'fudged, fabricated, and misleading.' PTI warns oil reserves may run out in 10-12 days He took particular aim at the livestock data, which he said epitomised the flawed nature of PBS reporting. 'The way PBS claims to collect data on the increase in livestock numbers defies logic,' he remarked. 'It lays bare the absurdity of the data driving our national economic policies.' During the Commerce Ministry's briefing, he said that the opposition MPs grilled officials over the reliability of the statistics underpinning country's trade policies. He argued that obsolete metrics were distorting sectoral analysis, especially in agriculture, where livestock accounts for 64 per cent of data. This, he said, grossly skewed the broader economic picture. 'Our regional competitors are racing ahead with real-time data and modern analytics, but we're still stuck in the past. A 21st-century economy cannot run on 20th-century statistics,' he regretted. He went on to claim that tariff mechanisms had been better managed under the previous Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) government – a point he said was implicitly acknowledged by some current officials during the briefing. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
