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Business Recorder
a day ago
- Business
- Business Recorder
Inflation expected to lower slightly in Pakistan
After inching up to 3.5% YoY in May, Pakistan's headline inflation is expected to lower slightly, clocking in at 3.1% in June, as per a report by brokerage house JS Global. Pakistan's headline inflation hit 3.5% on a year-on-year basis in May 2025, a reading higher than that of April 2025, when it stood at 0.3%, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data. 'Following a 3.5% YoY reading in May 2025, the CPI is expected to be at 3.1% YoY in June 2025. The base effect is now fading, signalling a return to normalised price trends,' said JS Global. This would take the FY25 average to 4.6%, down from the FY24 average of 23.9%, it added. It may be noted that the inflation reading in Pakistan rose to a record 38% on a year-on-year basis in May 2023, the highest level since data was made available beginning in July 1965. As per JS Global, food inflation for June is predicted to rise 2.8% on a YoY basis, which was 0.97% last year, owing to the dissipation of the base effect. 'Nevertheless, price decreases in certain food items are likely to lead to a MoM decline in food inflation. Housing, Gas and Electricity is projected to post a 4% YoY decline in Jun-2025, primarily due to a reduction in electricity tariffs,' it projected. Meanwhile, core inflation is expected to clock in around 8.5% YoY in June. It added that the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) maintained the policy rate at 11% in the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting held earlier this week. It noted that from June 2024 till June 2025, the policy rate has been cut by a total of 1,100bp, declining from a peak of 22% to 11%. 'Potential disruptions in global supply chains, and an uncertain outlook for global commodity prices were the key risks highlighted by MPC,' JS Global said. SBP is likely to meet in July 2025 for its next MPC meeting.
Business Recorder
12-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
PSX continues record rally
KARACHI: The Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) extended its rally on Wednesday as key indices posted strong gains, fueled by robust investor participation and improved sentiment following the positive announcements in the federal budget. The benchmark KSE-100 Index rose by 2,328 points, or 1.91 percent, to close at 124,352.68 points, up from 122,024.44 points in the previous session. The market stayed positive throughout the day and recorded one of its biggest single-day gains, showing strong investor confidence. During intraday trading, the index touched a low of 123,237.99 points and a high of 124,588.17 points. On Wednesday, BRIndex100 closed at 13,322.82 points which was 243.12 points or 1.86 percent higher than previous close. The total volume remained robust to 780.187 million. Meanwhile, BRIndex30 gained 966.83 points or 2.55 percent and closed at 38,924.40 points with the total volume remaining 474.332 million shares. Market strategists observed that the PSX's current upward trajectory reflects growing investor appetite, particularly in undervalued blue-chip and mid-tier stocks, as well as speculative interest in low-priced, high-volume counters. On the other hand, JS Global desk reported that the market welcomed the budget with strong optimism, breaking all resistance levels to cross 124,000 points level. Broad-based participation fueled the rally, reflecting growing investor confidence, they added. Trading activity remained very strong throughout the day. The total number of shares traded in the ready market crossed 1.041 billion, up sharply from 592.95 million shares in the previous session. The total value of shares traded in the regular market more than doubled, rising to Rs 46.70 billion from Rs 21.82 billion a day earlier. In addition, the market capitalization also saw a significant increase of Rs 226 billion, climbing from Rs 14.76 trillion on Tuesday to a new high of Rs 14.99 trillion. Among the most active stocks in the ready market, Pervez Ahmed Co. Ltd. led the volumes chart with an extraordinary 78.29 million shares changing hands and closed at Rs 2.00. WorldCall Telecom maintained the second position with 55.14 million shares traded, closing modestly higher at Rs 1.45. Sui Southern Gas Company also witnessed significant buying interest as its share price settled at Rs 41.14, with a turnover of 45.08 million shares. In terms of price movements, Rafhan Maize Products Company Limited stood out as the session's top gainer, surging by Rs 117.58 to close at Rs 9,830.52, followed by Hoechst Pakistan Limited, which posted a strong rise of Rs 96.07 to close at Rs 3,307.07. On the losing side, PIA Holding Company LimitedB faced the most significant setback, dropping by Rs 2,591.10 to close at Rs 23,319.88. Khyber Textile Mills Limited also recorded a sharp decline of Rs 246.16, ending the session at Rs 2,215.49. Market breadth remained overwhelmingly positive as 283 companies posted gains, 157 registered losses, while 38 remained unchanged out of a total of 478 actively traded companies in the ready market. The sharp rise in advancing stocks underlined broad-based buying interest across multiple sectors, including cement, power, oil and gas, and telecom. Meanwhile, BR Automobile Assembler Index closed at 21,263.41 with a net positive change of 113.56 points or 0.54 percent with total turnover of 6.384 million shares. BR Cement Index gained 453.55 points or 4.42 percent and settled at 10,712.13 with total turnover of 134.752 million shares. Moreover, BR Commercial Banks Index closed at 36,852.44 with a net positive change of 349.14 points or 0.96 percent and a total turnover of 65.119 million shares changing hands. BR Power Generation and Distribution also surge to 22,221.79 points with a net positive change of 578.03 points or 2.67 percent with the turnover of 52.014 million shares. BR Oil and Gas Index closed at 11,856.33 with a net positive change of 339.85 points or 2.95 percent and a total turnover of 90.513 million shares. BR Tech. & Comm. Index finished at 2,994.51 points with a net positive change of 8.11 points or 0.27 percent and a total turnover of 89.669 million shares. Ahsan Mehanti of Arif Habib Corporation said that the stock market hit new all-time highs as investors reacted positively to the federal budget for FY26. He explained that the government kept taxes on stocks unchanged while increasing withholding taxes on bank deposits, which encouraged people to invest more in the stock market. He said that the budget's targets, including a lower fiscal deficit of 3.9 percent of GDP, a small current account deficit, expected economic growth of 4.2 percent, and a larger federal development budget of Rs 1 trillion, also boosted investor confidence and played a key role in the market's strong performance. Copyright Business Recorder, 2025
Business Recorder
09-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Platform set for further growth: Experts weigh in on Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25
The government, on Monday, a day before the federal budget is unveiled, released its much-awaited Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25, which showed Pakistan's economy is expected to grow 2.7% in the fiscal year ending June 2025. Pakistan has provisionally recorded real GDP growth of 2.68% during FY25, missing the growth target of 3.6%, against 2.51% recorded in FY24. Talking to Business Recorder, economic analysts weigh in on Pakistan's economic performance during the outgoing fiscal. 'The economy moved in the right direction during the outgoing fiscal,' Waqas Ghani, Head of Research at JS Global, told Business Recorder. 'Services sector, which has a 58% share in GDP, contributed the most with 2.91% growth in FY25,' he said. On the other hand, agriculture posted modest growth of 0.56% in FY25, led by a 4.72% rise in livestock. However, major crops declined by 13.49% due to lower cultivation and weather challenges. The industry expanded by 4.77%, supported by small-scale manufacturing and slaughtering. The large-scale manufacturing (LSM) contracted by 1.5% amid high costs and supply constraints. 'The economy has stabilised in the outgoing fiscal, which has provided a platform set for further growth,' said Samiullah Tariq, Head of Research at Pak-Kuwait Investment Company. Meanwhile, Topline Securities, a brokerage house, believed that the GDP growth 'will be revised down, especially due to enlarged growth numbers of the industrial segment at 4.77% compared to actual growth in 9MFY25 at -1%'. Overseas Pakistanis help country post historic current account surplus of $1.9bn in 10MFY25 Islamabad is also targeting a GDP growth of 4.2% for the financial year 2025-26. 'The target is achievable if Pakistan remains steadfast in its reforms and follows the IMF programme,' Samiullah added. In another key development, Pakistan reported a current account surplus of $1.9 billion during the first ten months of the financial year 2024-25, marking a major turnaround from the $1.3 billion deficit recorded in the same period last year, according to the survey. 'This is a very positive development, and we expect the country to reach primary surplus in the upcoming fiscal year as well,' said Ghani. Moreover, tax collection also improved considerably in FY25, the finance minister informed that the number of individual filers doubled to 3.7 million, whereas the number of high-value filers jumped by 178% during the outgoing fiscal. 'Although the increase in tax collection is good, we need further rationalisation,' he added.
Express Tribune
05-06-2025
- Business
- Express Tribune
Vegetables drive weekly SPI up 0.02%
Listen to article The Sensitive Price Indicator (SPI) for the week ending June 4, 2025, registered a marginal rise of 0.02%, reflecting mixed price trends for essential commodities across Pakistan. The SPI, which monitors 51 key items across 50 markets in 17 cities, showed notable weekly increases in tomatoes (16.94%), potatoes (11.52%), and onions (5.21%). Moderate price hikes were also observed in bananas (1.57%), eggs (1.34%), sugar (1.24%), Basmati broken rice (1.02%), gur (0.81%), and petrol (0.41%). Conversely, chicken prices dropped sharply by 11.22%, while garlic declined by 3.71%. Minor decreases were recorded in LPG, vegetable ghee, and cooking oil. Overall, prices of 18 items (35.29%) increased, 6 items (11.77%) fell, and 27 items (52.94%) remained unchanged. On a year-on-year basis, the SPI posted a slight decline of 0.02%, indicating relative price stability. However, some items experienced steep annual hikes, including ladies' sandals (55.62%), eggs (35.36%), pulse moong (31.74%), powdered milk (23.82%), and sugar (23.51%). Other increases were seen in beef, bananas, and various pulses. Major annual declines were recorded in onions (64.90%), electricity charges for the first quarter (36.54%), garlic (27.79%), potatoes (23.15%), and tomatoes (18.10%). Wheat flour, tea, chilies, diesel, and rice Irri also registered lower prices compared to last year. Pakistan's Consumer Price Index (CPI) is projected to be 2.7% for May 2025, according to KS Global. "The base effect is now fading, signalling a return to normalised price trends," said Muhammad Waqas Ghani, Research Head at JS Global. This brings the average inflation for 11MFY25 to 4.7%, down significantly from 24.9% in 11MFY24. JS Global forecasts FY25 average inflation at 4.6%, with a forward 12-month estimate of 5.7%. Following rapid disinflation, the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut the policy rate to 11% in its last Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting. A further reduction of 50100 basis points is possible, with the next MPC meeting scheduled for June 16, 2025.
Business Recorder
02-06-2025
- Business
- Business Recorder
Inflation in Pakistan rises to 3.5% in May 2025
Headline Inflation YoY Headline Inflation YoY Pakistan's headline inflation clocked in at 3.5% on a year-on-year basis in May 2025, a reading higher than that of April 2025 when it stood at 0.3%, showed Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) data on Monday. On a month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.2% in May 2025, as compared to a decrease of 0.8% in the previous month and a decrease of 3.2% in May 2024. CPI inflation average during 11MFY25 stood at 4.61% as compared to 24.52% in 11MFY24. Inflation in Pakistan has been a significant and persistent economic challenge, particularly in recent years. In May 2023, the CPI inflation rate hit a record high of 38%. However, it has been on a downward trajectory since then. Last month, the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) cut the key interest rate by 100 basis points (bps) to 11%, the lowest policy rate since March 2022 (9.75%). The central bank has cut the rate by 1,100bps since June from an all-time high of 22%. The CPI reading is higher than the government's expectations. The Finance Ministry in its monthly economic report expected inflation to ease to between 1.5% and 2% year-on-year in May, before picking up to 3%-4% in June. 'Exports and remittances are expected to maintain their upward trend in the coming months, keeping the current account within a manageable range,' the ministry said. Meanwhile, the latest CPI reading was also higher than the projections made by several brokerage houses. JS Global projected Pakistan's headline inflation to inch up to 2.7% in May. 'Pakistan's CPI is expected to clock in at 2.7% for May. The base effect is now fading, signalling a return to normalised price trends. This is likely to take 11MFY25 average inflation to 4.7%, down from 11MFY24 average of 24.9%,' said JS Global. Meanwhile, Insight Securities, another brokerage house, expected headline inflation to clock in at 3.4% in May. Urban, rural inflation The PBS said CPI inflation urban increased to 3.5% on year-on-year basis in May 2025, as compared to 0.5% of the previous month and 14.3% in May 2024. On month-on-month basis, it increased to 0.1% in May 2025, as compared to a decrease of 0.7% in the previous and a decrease of 2.8% in May 2024. CPI inflation rural increased to 3.4% on year-on-year basis in May 2025 as compared to a decrease of 0.1% in the previous month and 8.2% in May 2024. On month-on-month basis, it decreased by 0.5% in May 2025 as compared to a decrease of 1.0% in the previous month and a decrease of 3.9% in May 2024
