Oregon Football faces uphill battle in repeating as Big Ten Champions, per ESPN FPI

Oregon Football faces uphill battle in repeating as Big Ten Champions, per ESPN FPI
In their first year as members of the Big Ten Conference, the Oregon Ducks announced their presence with authority.
While many questioned whether or not this flashy team from the Pacific Northwest would be able to travel and assert themselves as one of the top teams in a historic and rugged conference, the Ducks did more than just hold their own. In the regular season, they went a perfect 13-0, beating traditional powers like the Ohio State Buckeyes, Michigan Wolverines, Michigan State Spartans, Wisconsin Badgers, and Penn State Nittany Lions on the way to winning the conference championship before all was said and done.
Not a bad introduction to your new league.
In 2025, the Ducks' roster will look quite a bit different, but they are still expected to be among the best teams in the nation, debuting at No. 6 on ESPN's Football Power Index ratings, which were released on Tuesday. But will they be able to repeat as Big Ten champs? According to the FPI, it may be an uphill battle for Oregon to pull off that feat for the second year in a row.
For those unfamiliar with ESPN's FPI, it is an index that 'relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.' In essence, it's ESPN's way of declaring the top teams in the nation, looking at their roster, their schedule, their percentage to win each game, and where that ultimately lands them after the season comes to an end.
Here's a look at how the conference stacks up when it comes to percentage to win the conference, according to ESPN's FPI:
No. 18 — Purdue Boilermakers
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.0%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 92
Projected FPI Record: 3.2-8.8
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 18
Purdue has to feel good about bringing in Barry Odom to take over the program, but this is not a one-year rebuild situation to get back to relevance in the conference.
No. 17 — Northwestern Boilermakers
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.0%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 74
Projected FPI Record: 4.1-7.9
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 17
Ryan Braun had a great first year but regressed back to the mean in 2024 with a below-average season. What will 2025 bring? ESPN doesn't seem to think it will be anything special.
No. 16 — Rutgers Scarlet Knights
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.1%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 55
Projected FPI Record: 5.8-6.2
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 15
Rutgers has some nice pieces and a solid coaching staff, but I don't think anyone considers them major contenders this year.
No. 15 — Michigan State Spartans
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.1%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 59
Projected FPI Record: 5.2-6.8
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 12
We'll see what Jonathan Smith can do in his second year with the Spartans and how much of a leap Aidan Chiles can make this season.
For more Michigan State news and analysis, check out Spartans Wire!
No. 14 — UCLA Bruins
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.1%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 47
Projected FPI Record: 5.4-6.6
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 13
Can Nico Iamaleava overcome the poor roster at UCLA and turn the Bruins into a winner? It definitely feels like a long shot.
For more UCLA news and analysis, check out UCLA Wire!
No. 13 — Maryland Terrapins
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.2%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 61
Projected FPI Record: 5.9-6.1
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 16
Will this be the year that Mike Locksley finally breaks through and builds a contender at Maryland? It certainly doesn't seem likely.
No. 12 — Minnesota Golden Gophers
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.3%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 43
Projected FPI Record: 6.9-5.2
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 11
P.J. Fleck has done a good job coaching at Minnesota, and they are one of the teams that could be able to surpass expectations this season if the ball bounces the right way a few times.
No. 11 — Wisconsin Badgers
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.4%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 38
Projected FPI Record: 5.6-6.5
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 14
Wisconsin has the toughest schedule in the conference this year, so expecting them to make a huge leap with Billy Edwards Jr. under center is asking a lot.
For more Wisconsin news and analysis, check out Badgers Wire!
No. 10 — Iowa Hawkeyes
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.6%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 39
Projected FPI Record: 6.2-5.8
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 10
We know that Iowa will be a good defensive team again this year, but can they improve on offense with Mark Gronowski under center? It will be one of the more interesting storylines to follow in the conference this season.
For more Iowa news and analysis, check out Hawkeyes Wire!
No. 9 — Illinois Fighting Illini
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.6%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 44
Projected FPI Record: 7.1-4.9
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 4
Illinois has gotten a ton of buzz as a sneaky contender in the Big Ten this year with Luke Altmyer returning for another year, but ESPN isn't as sold on their high expectations as the media consensus.
No. 8 — Washington Huskies
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.8%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 27
Projected FPI Record: 7.1-4.9
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 9
With Jedd Fisch's second year in Seattle and Demond Williams taking over as the starter, Washington could be a surprise team in the conference this season.
For more Washington news and analysis, check out Huskies Wire!
No. 7 — Indiana Hoosiers
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 0.9%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 31
Projected FPI Record: 7.5-4.5
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 7
Indiana was the talk of the conference last year with Curt Cignetti taking over, and now with Fernando Mendoza replacing Kurtis Rourke under center, they could be set up for another impressive run in 2025.
No. 6 — Nebraska Cornhuskers
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 1.5%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 25
Projected FPI Record: 7.5-4.5
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 8
How good will Dylan Raiola be this year, and what is the ceiling of Nebraska's offense with a relative lack of talent around him? If Raiola can take an expected leap, this team might be better than many expect.
For more Nebraska news and analysis, check out Cornhuskers Wire!
No. 5 — USC Trojans
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 4.2%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 19
Projected FPI Record: 8.3-3.9
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 5
USC has done a solid job building a roster on both sides of the ball this year, and while we need to see it play out on the field before crowning them contenders, Lincoln Riley certainly has a team worth watching.
For more USC news and analysis, check out Trojans Wire!
No. 4 — Michigan Wolverines
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 6.0%
ESPN FPI Ranking: 17
Projected FPI Record: 8.4-3.7
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 6
ESPN seems to be high on Bryce Underwood and his ability to lead the Wolverines as a true freshman. I would like to see it for a couple of games before naming Michigan contenders to win the conference, but it's possible.
For more Michigan news and analysis, check out Wolverines Wire!
No. 3 — Oregon Ducks
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 19.1%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 6
Projected FPI Record: 10.0-2.4
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 3
As the defending Big Ten Champions, it makes sense that Oregon is in the mix to win it once again this year. However, it also doesn't come as a surprise to see them sitting behind teams like Penn State and Ohio State in the odds.
For more Oregon news and analysis, check out Ducks Wire!
No. 2 — Penn State Nittany Lions
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 25.1%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 6
Projected FPI Record: 10.2-2.2
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 1
Considering that most preseason rankings have Penn State at No. 1 in the nation, it was a bit surprising to see the Nittany Lions in the No. 2 spot when it comes to conference championship odds. It would be surprising not to see them in the mix, though.
For more Penn State news and analysis, check out Nittany Lions Wire!
No. 1 — Ohio State Buckeyes
ESPN FPI Big Ten Champion %: 40.3%
ESPN FPI Ranking: No. 4
Projected FPI Record: 10.4-2.2
Ducks Wire Big Ten Ranking: No. 2
Putting Ohio State at the top of the odds is not surprising, considering they won the national championship a year ago. However, Julian Sayin is going to have to be special in order for this offense to get back to where they were a year ago.
For more Ohio State news and analysis, check out Buckeyes Wire!
Contact/Follow @Ducks_Wire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Oregon Ducks news, notes, and opinions.

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11 minutes ago

• New York Times

For NBA Finals MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, balance leads to brilliance

Balance. The maintenance of equilibrium. The management of contradicting forces and interacting properties. The harmony of tension and stillness, strength and surrender. It's the secret sauce of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. It's at the core of his shifty drives — the change of direction, the sudden stops, the odd-angled stepbacks. It's critical to his majestic midrange jumper, which often feels automatic. It's foundational to his persona, the brand he's gradually concocted over the years. Advertisement His persona is a balancing of the dichotomy at his core. His manner is reserved, composed. He's always been the type to survey before proceeding. Internal with his processing. Calculated with his moves. Canadian youth basketball figures remember the calmness he displayed as a youth and his cerebral approach. Simultaneously, and unmistakably, Gilgeous-Alexander owns a drive fit for a legend. Behind those scoping eyes and his Cheshire smile churns a quiet yearning for a greatness humble people aren't supposed to fathom. An ambition that for most fades away with daydreams. 'As a kid, you dream,' he said. 'Every kid dreams. But you don't ever really know if it's going to come true.' No way this could've been expected. Gilgeous-Alexander finished high school ranked No. 35 in ESPN's Top 100 for 2017. His cousin and high school teammate Nickeil Alexander-Walker was No. 21 in a senior class topped by Marvin Bagley III and Michael Porter Jr. Gilgeous-Alexander was the ninth-ranked point guard on the list, behind Collin Sexton and Trae Young. Yet, SGA's ambition gained strength without being fueled by hype. He nurtured these dueling natures into a stabilizing force, keeping him centered while climbing. And now — at the end of his seventh season, the first five of which were spent in relative anonymity — Gilgeous-Alexander arrives in the stratosphere he dared to dream. Some three weeks shy of his 27th birthday, the NBA MVP is now an NBA champion, having sealed the deal on the Oklahoma City Thunder's historic season. He breached the clouds of ordinary greatness and ascended to scarcely occupied territory. The equipoise of SGA produced fruit. He spent much of Sunday's Game 7 against the Indiana Pacers trying to steady his breathing, suppress his nerves, conserve his energy and keep his teammates in the moment. But when his name was announced as the NBA Finals MVP, he finally let go. His teammates swarmed him, coaxing down his guard with their glee. Composure gave way to joy. The weight shifted from his shoulders to his hands, which gripped the 11-pound Bill Russell Trophy. With his gold signature Converse draped over his shoulder, Gilgeous-Alexander hoisted the finals MVP trophy above his head with both hands and a smile wider than his wingspan, ending his fast from a sense of accomplishment. 'This isn't just a win for me,' he told the packed arena inside Paycom Center. 'This is a win for my family. This is a win for my friends. This is a win for everybody that was in my corner growing up. This is a win for the fans, the best fans in the world.' Arriving at this pinnacle from Hamilton, Ontario, required the juggling of many elements. Being the franchise star to finally deliver a championship to Oklahoma City, a region all too familiar with thunderous heartbreaks, demanded a masterclass of stewardship. With the Thunder's overflowing contingent of young talent, including a pair of unproven co-stars, and a boy genius in coach Mark Daigenault wading into deep waters, Gilgeous-Alexander needed to coalesce it all — while also capitalizing on the superstardom calling. Advertisement With Oklahoma City's season on the brink, when it faced becoming one of league history's biggest disappointments, the balance of Gilgeous-Alexander saved the Thunder. He redistributed the weight onto himself. He was sturdy enough to keep them from falling. 'You just know that he won't fold,' teammate Lu Dort said. 'When the pressure's high, you know he's still there and ready to go. It sets a tone. When you see your best player like that, the other guys will just follow and (know) we're in a good position. We're good.' He finished Game 7 with 29 points and 12 assists, five rebounds and two steals in OKC's 103-91 victory. He finished the series averaging 30.3 points, making him the 18th player to average 30 or more in the NBA Finals. His 3,172 total points in 2024-25 — regular season and playoffs combined — is the ninth-most in a season and most since Jordan had 3,207 in 1992-93. Only 13 players have scored 3,000 points in one single season. Gilgeous-Alexander is now the 15th player in NBA history to win the MVP and an NBA championship in the same season. The first to do it since Stephen Curry in 2015. He is the 11th player to win regular-season and finals MVP in the same season. The first to do it since LeBron James in 2013. He is the fourth player to win a scoring title, regular-season MVP and finals MVP in the same season. The first to do so since Shaquille O'Neal in 2000, and the first international player to pull it off. And no doubt, the first who could don fur and stunna shades. 'Yeah, it's hard to believe that I'm part of that group,' Gilgeous-Alexander said. 'It's hard to even fathom that I'm that type of basketball player sometimes.' Balance. The deliberate distribution of weight to remain upright. The choreography of opposing forces, aligning what pulls with what resists. Not simply avoiding a fall, but a constant negotiation between gravity's pull and the will to stand. 'I swear, one time, his knee hit the ground,' Thunder forward Jaylin Williams said. 'And he still stayed on his feet and hit the shot. His balance is crazy.' Advertisement Perhaps his signature shot of these NBA Finals came on a drive down the left side. When he got near the baseline, Gilegous-Alexander stepped toward the paint and pressed his right forearm into Aaron Nesmith's chest, re-directing the momentum of the Pacers guard. But SGA's lead foot was clipped as Nesmith fell backwards, disrupting the plant on SGA's stepback. He stumbled, crouching on his left foot as he turned his focus towards the basket. He maintained his peering eyes on the rim as the rest of his faculties worked to keep him upright. His one-two step into the shot looked almost clumsy, his toe dragging on the second step. It gave Andrew Nembhard the time to hustle over and help. But once SGA got both feet on the ground, he reclaimed his stability. He rose for the baseline jumper and buried it from 14 feet, over Nembhard. He gave OKC its first lead of the second half, and it would never trail again. He gave Indiana 15 points over the final 4:38 down the stretch of Game 4. He gave the basketball world something to chew on. Is he this good? Does he belong in the same breath as the greats? The accolades he accumulated this season alone are worthy of Hall of Fame credentials. But him producing like this in the playoffs, in the finals, starts to reek of undeniable. The Thunder are champions, though, because of his versatility. Winning requires flexibility. Gilgeous-Alexander, who said he first stepped on a basketball court at 6 with hopes of winning, has the arsenal for such elasticity. The great ones know how to employ their repertoire. Their feel is special, instincts superior. They can sense the moments, understand what's needed and adapt accordingly. In Game 5, SGA bore the burden of delivering the Thunder. His read: His elite scoring was in order. Down four with 3:52 remaining, Gilgeous-Alexander ran off seven straight points to change the tenor of crunch time. On Sunday, the heaviness of Game 7 had its effect. He didn't look as smooth. His shot didn't fall with his trademark ease. Yet, his aggressiveness didn't wane. He mixed up his approach, became a playmaker. Advertisement His 27 shots were the most since Game 1. But his attacking to score produced the desired effect by collapsing the defense. So he set up his teammates. Gilgeous-Alexander likes to drive and hold onto the ball as long as he can, through his deceleration and Eurosteps, for as long as he can hang in the air, until the defense responds to him — then he dumps it off to a teammate like a belated gift. The defining run came in the third quarter on Sunday, the score tied at 56. Gilgeous-Alexander faked a drive after a high ball screen and stepped back into a 3 before Pacers forward Pascal Siakam could do anything. This is where SGA would start cooking. But he knew Indiana thought the same thing, so he used it. The next time down, he posted up Nembhard, SGA's nemesis all series. He stepped back for his patented midrange, hung in the air long enough for the help defender to come, and then hit Chet Holmgren for an open 3. The next time down, Gilgeous-Alexander went to work again. A crossover left got Nembhard to move, setting up SGA's spin back to the middle. He glided towards the rim, having shed Nembhard, hanging in the air as he sized up the arc on his floater, buying time for Pacers center Myles Turner and Siakam to close in on him. It was all to set up the open look for Jalen Williams, whose 3-pointer rattled in. This 9-0 run wasn't the takeover of Game 5, but it was engineered by SGA. A product of knowing when to dominate and when to lead. The duality of being the point guard and one of the best scorers in the league. The balance of SGA, knowing how to do both and when to be either. The face and the voice of Oklahoma City. Its might and its measure. 'At the end of the day,' Holmgren proclaimed, 'that's going to go down in history as one of the greatest seasons that's ever been had by a player. It's amazing to be a part of that, to witness somebody going through it, succeeding in so many different ways. 'He really makes it a joy to be around. It's never about him. It's always about us. It's always about winning. His talent shines through all of that. We saw that all year. He's a hell of a basketball player, but he's an even better person. I'm proud to call him my teammate. Proud to call him my friend. I'm so happy that we were able to put a shiny cap on what he did this year.' Balance. The achievement of agreement between fluid elements. The force keeping chaos from spilling over. The invisible thread that connects motion and meaning, chaos with clarity. It's long been a strength of SGA. Perhaps no greater example exists than in the summer of 2016. Gilgeous-Alexander received a prestigious invite: the CP3 Elite Point Guard Camp. Chris Paul annually invites a group of proteges to his basketball academy to learn from the Point Gawd himself. That June, 15 of the best point guards in college, and 21 from the high school ranks, were anointed with a coveted spot in the three-day camp. Prep stars Trae Young and De'Aaron Fox joined the camp. Monte Morris and Dennis Smith Jr. highlighted the collegiate floor generals. Advertisement SGA wasn't highly touted at the time. In November 2015, he committed to the first school to offer him a scholarship, the Florida Gators, as an under-the-radar recruit. He'd just finished his junior year at Hamilton Heights Christian Academy in Chattanooga, Tenn., his first season in America. So the exposure and the experience at CP3's camp were a big deal. A no-brainer for most. But Gilgeous-Alexander would have a breakthrough before heading to North Carolina. He took part in a six-day tryout for the Canadian Men's National Team before his senior year of high school. Canada was preparing for a FIBA tournament to qualify for the 2016 Rio Olympics. In the practice facility of the Air Canada Centre, as the home of the Toronto Raptors was called then, he'd put himself on the map of his nation's hoop scene. 'I remember one of the practices,' said Joe Raso, a highly regarded coach, international scout and unofficial historian of Canadian basketball. '(Kentucky coach John) Calipari was in the gym. Shai was giving Cory Joseph and Tyler Ennis fits. They were NBA guys, and he was a high school kid.' Gilgeous-Alexander earned one of the 12 roster spots. So he had a choice to make. Options to weigh. He could attend Chris Paul's camp, where future All-Star Victor Oladipo helped teach, and some dozen NBA scouts attended. He left Canada to finish high school ball in America in search of tougher competition. This was a prominent chance to show out against proven talent. Or, he could skip the splashy opportunity and hit the road almost immediately with the national team. A five-game exhibition tournament in Italy prepared the squad for the qualifying tournament in the Philippines. But this option included one caveat: the high schooler wouldn't play much. An early clash of his dichotomy. The push of clandestine development. The pull of a splashy opportunity for growth. Nearly a decade ago, at a pivotal juncture, Gilgeous-Alexander found himself measuring options. Advertisement He chose Canada. 'Because I was going to play with pros,' SGA said Sunday night. He didn't play a single minute in the Philippines. But every day, before the team practice, he put in work. Away from the spotlight. With Steve Nash. 'I didn't know much about Shai at all when he came to camp,' said Nash, who was general manager of Canada's men's national team at the time. 'He was heading to Kentucky as a late commit. I knew within two practices that he was an NBA player because of his feel, pace and length. I had no idea the player he'd turn into. His work ethic and focus are outstanding, and he's proof that you never know what's possible unless you commit wholeheartedly with vision and go after it every day.' He chose quiet work as his way to make noise. He captured clout by ignoring the covetousness it inspires. SGA could always silence the noise so he could see the right path. It's why he was a punctual and reliable student. It's why in high school and college, he'd hit the gym hours before school. His coach, Dwayne Washington, got emotional when SGA asked for access to the gym at 6 a.m. Working before work began. Some of his teammates at Kentucky, including Kevin Knox and Jarred Vanderbilt, tapped into the tradition. Even when he entered the league, he worked in the shadows. Drafted by the Los Angeles Clippers at No. 11 in 2018, he spent his rookie season learning from veterans like Lou Williams, Patrick Beverley and Avery Bradley. He was traded to Oklahoma City and took a backseat to the bounty of picks the Clippers sent with him for Paul George. When no one was paying attention, he bonded with Chris Paul and learned even more than he'd missed three years earlier. When Oklahoma City won 46 games over two seasons in a rebuild, SGA was working on his jumper, improving his free-throw percentage and honing his midrange. So when he dropped his first of three straight seasons averaging 30-plus points per game, he felt out of nowhere. But the whole time, he was grooming. Advertisement Curating his swag and sharpening his game. Finding his voice and developing his brand. Building his own family and leading his team. Stacking wins and appreciating moments. Now he's at the mountaintop after putting it all together. 'As far as face of the league,' Thunder wing Alex Caruso said, '… he's got that capability. Clearly, the year he's had — MVP, Western Conference finals MVP, finals MVP, champion — I don't think anyone will question his ability. I think the thing that sets him apart is he'll probably be hungry for more. He probably won't be satisfied with winning this one time. He'll want to be better. He'll want to see how he can tweak and maneuver his game to a better fit and take advantage of the way people guard him. That's just the special ability that he has mentally to be competitive and want to be great.' This is just the beginning. The first championship isn't the pinnacle, but the key to accessing another level. SGA will experience a new level of fame. The demands on his time will increase. The responsibility of stardom falls on his shoulders. Oklahoma City is on the map now. More national games are coming. The prime slots and showcase games. As the NBA begins new partnerships with NBC and Amazon, Gilgeous-Alexander is now in a position to be a fresh face to promote. With more opportunity comes greater expectations. With more exposure comes increased scrutiny. More demands on his time. More pressure to perform. More attacks on the chemistry and potency of the Thunder. The reward for his brilliance at managing everything is now even more to manage. Staying at the top demands even more of his special sauce. Balance.

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41 minutes ago

• USA Today

Where Wisconsin star John Tonje lands in CBS' latest NBA draft top 100 player ranking

"It was just a surreal year, and I learned so much from playing with the Badgers."Former @BadgerMBB star John Tonje stopped by the studio to discuss his future and memorable season in Madison.#B1GMBBall x @johntonje1 Wisconsin basketball star wing John Tonje is likely to hear his name called during the 2025 NBA draft later this week. Notably, ESPN's latest mock draft recently slotted the now-former Badger No. 42 overall to the Sacramento Kings. CBSSports forecasts a similar pick range -- it has Tonje at No. 44 in its current ranking of the draft's top 100 prospects. The sixth-year senior averaged 19.6 points, 5.3 rebounds and 1.8 assists per game for the Badgers in 2024-25. He reached that point total on 46.5% shooting from the field, 39% from 3 and 91% from the free-throw line. Those tallies earned him First-Team All-America honors from the Wooden Award, a Second-Team All-America selection from nearly every other outlet and a consensus First-Team All-Big Ten selection. There is a question of how Tonje's top-end college production will translate to the NBA level, especially at his older age of 24. Enough NBA teams seem sold on that translation, as the 6-foot-5 wing's draft stock has steadily improved since the season's conclusion. His strong NBA combine performance and several notable workouts played major roles. Tonje is likely to hear his name called on Day 2 of the NBA draft on Friday. When he does, he'll become the first Badger selected since Johnny Davis went No. 10 overall to the Washington Wizards in 2022, and the second since Frank Kaminsky and Sam Dekker each went in the first round in 2015. Contact/Follow @TheBadgersWire on X (formerly Twitter) and like our page on Facebook to follow ongoing coverage of Wisconsin Badgers news, notes and opinion