Israel-Iran fallout sparks concerns for Africa's oil producers
The escalating conflict between Israel and Iran has prompted fears about the impact on economies across Africa.
Oil prices have surged following Israel's initial strikes on Iranian targets on Friday and retaliatory attacks by Tehran amid concerns that a broader regional conflict could disrupt oil exports from the Middle East.
Cheta Nwanze, partner at Lagos-based risk advisory company SBM Intelligence, told Semafor that economies across the continent, including oil producers, were likely to be hit hard.
'Higher crude prices will almost certainly translate into increased domestic fuel and transport costs, stoking inflation,' he said, adding that non-oil producing nations face higher energy importation bills that will drain foreign exchange reserves.
A number of African governments have scrapped fuel subsidies in recent years, following pressure from the International Monetary Fund, which means petrol price fluctuations will be felt more sharply.
The military strikes have also prompted diplomatic responses. The African Union expressed 'grave concern' about the attacks, which it said threaten international security. South Africa stressed its fear for 'nuclear safety' after Israel targeted Iran's nuclear facilities, while Nigeria warned the conflict could destabilize the Middle East.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Yahoo
11 minutes ago
- Yahoo
Major analysts predict oil prices if Strait of Hormuz blocked
Major analysts predict oil prices if Strait of Hormuz blocked originally appeared on TheStreet. The world has gotten a bit crazy in 2025. An ongoing global trade war has sparked worries about worldwide economic growth, and now Israel and Iran are locked in a battle with missiles flying back and forth, threatening global oil supplies. The potential for a major energy crisis to develop because of the Iran-Israel conflict has caused Brent Crude and West Texas Intermediate oil prices to surge, and in turn that's created an entirely new threat to the economy. 💵💰💰💵 The potential for the battle in the Middle East to spread, potentially shutting off oil seaborne transports through the Strait of Hormuz and possibly removing Iranian oil from the global market, has lifted Brent crude and WTI crude per-barrel prices by 18% to $79 and 21% to $75 this month. The situation has captured the attention of Citigroup, JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs oil analysts, leading them to reset their oil price targets. President Donald Trump this year has unveiled a string of harsher-than-expected tariffs to rekindle US manufacturing. The moves, which include 25% tariffs on Mexico, Canada and autos, plus a 30% tariff on China and a 10% baseline tariff on all imports, have forced economists to rethink their global projections for economic growth this instance, earlier this month the World Bank reduced its worldwide gross domestic product forecast to 2.3% from 2.7%, citing tariff uncertainty. Contributing significantly to the reduced outlook is a major downgrade of U.S. growth to 1.4% from 2.3%. The World Bank lowered its U.S. forecast for 2026 to 1.6% from 2%. The Federal Reserve also expects slowing growth in the US because of tariffs' bite. The Fed updated its closely watched Summary of Economic Projections on June 18. It expects unemployment to increase to 4.5% from 4.2%, and projects that Personal Consumption Expenditures inflation — its favored inflation benchmark — will climb to 3% this year from expectations in March for 2.7% inflation. Fed officials expect U.S GDP growth to be just 1.4% in 2025, down from 1.7% in March, and well below the 2.5% growth the US economy delivered in 2024. In China, the World Bank expects slowing activity due to higher tariffs to reduce GDP growth to 4.5% in 2025 from 5% in 2024. In 2026, it expects GDP growth to ease to 4%. The economic situation could get even more uncertain if the Israel-Iran conflict continues to prop up crude oil prices. Oil prices can significantly increase inflation, directly and indirectly, further crimping consumer and business spending. We're already seeing concerning signs that higher oil prices are translating into higher prices at the pump for gasoline. "WTI crude oil $77/barrel, the national average price of gasoline is now $3.21 per gallon and could by next week climb to its highest ever while President Trump has been in office ($3.25/gal)on due to Middle East tensions," wrote GasBuddy's Patrick De Haan on X. Roughly 18 million to 19 million barrels of oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz daily, representing 20% of global oil consumption, including crude, condensates and fuel. Its proximity to Iran means it could become an oil chokepoint if Iran acts to block it. The possibility of that happening is "under serious consideration,' said Esmail Kosari, an Iranian parliament member and IRGC general, on June 15. More Economic Analysis: Federal Reserve prepares strong message on long-term interest rates Massive city workers union approves strike Analyst makes bold call on stocks, bonds, and gold Iran's oil production and its ability to export oil to its largest consumer, China, might also be significantly impaired. Iran is OPEC's third-largest member, producing about 3.3 million barrels per day. Citi estimates that if the conflict disrupts 3 million bpd for multiple months, crude oil prices could reach $90 a barrel from $75 now and from the low-to-mid $60s before Israel attacked Iran over its nuclear-development program. JP Morgan's analysts say that shutting the Strait of Hormuz could catapult crude oil prices to an eye-popping $120 to $130 per barrel. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, says the conflict creates a risk premium of about $10 a barrel. In one scenario, Goldman Sachs's analysts say that if Iran's export infrastructure is damaged to the point that Iran's supply is reduced by 1.75 million barrels a day, "before gradually recovering," and with OPEC+ production offsetting roughly half the reduction, Brent Crude oil would peak at "just over $90/barrel." Goldman Sachs, however, expects that the increase would prove temporary, with prices declining "back to the $60s in 2026 as Iran supply recovers." However, the situation would be worse if the Strait of Hormuz were blocked for an extended period. "While an interruption of trade through the Strait of Hormuz, through which nearly 1/5 of global oil production flows, appears much less likely, there is focus from investors and policymakers on this risk, because core OPEC+ producers may be unable to deploy spare capacity in this extreme tail scenario," Goldman's analysts wrote. "Based on our prior analysis, we estimate that oil prices may exceed $100/barrel in an extreme tail scenario of an extended disruption."Major analysts predict oil prices if Strait of Hormuz blocked first appeared on TheStreet on Jun 20, 2025 This story was originally reported by TheStreet on Jun 20, 2025, where it first appeared.
Yahoo
44 minutes ago
- Yahoo
What we know about US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities
US President Donald Trump says the American military has completed strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing war between Iran and Israel. "We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. All planes are now outside of Iran air space," he wrote on Truth Social. Trump added that a "full payload of bombs" were dropped on Fordo, an enrichment plant hidden in a remote mountainside that is vital to Iran's nuclear ambitions. Israeli officials say they were in "full coordination" with the US in planning these strikes. Iran could respond by targeting US military assets in the region. Its officials had earlier warned that they would retaliate and that any US attack risked a regional war. Here is a breakdown of what we know so far. Israel launched a surprise attack on dozens of Iranian nuclear and military targets on 13 June. It said its ambition was to dismantle its nuclear programme, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said would soon be able to produce a nuclear bomb. Iran insists its nuclear ambitions are peaceful. In retaliation, Tehran launched hundreds of rockets and drones towards Israel. The two countries have continued exchanging strikes since, in an air war which has now lasted more than a week. Trump has long said that he is opposed to Iran possessing a nuclear weapon. In March, US national intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard said that while Iran had increased its uranium stockpile to unprecedented levels, it was not building a nuclear weapon - an assessment that Trump recently said was "wrong". On the campaign trail, President Trump had criticised past US administrations for engaging in "stupid endless wars" in the Middle East, and he vowed to keep America out of foreign conflicts. The US and Iran were in nuclear talks at the time of Israel's surprise attack. Two days ago, President Trump had said he would give Iran two weeks to enter into substantial negotiations before striking - but that timeline turned out to be much, much shorter. Follow live: US attacks Iran nuclear sites Israel-Iran: How did latest conflict start and where could it lead? Iran's secretive nuclear site that only a US bomb could hit One of the sites the US attacked was a secretive nuclear site called Fordo. It is hidden away in a mountainside south of Tehran, and is believed to be deeper underground than the Channel Tunnel connecting the UK and France. The uranium enrichment site is considered by experts to be vital to Iran's nuclear ambitions. Fordo's depth below the Earth's surface has made it difficult to reach with Israel's weaponry. Only the US was considered to have a "bunker buster" bomb strong and large enough to destroy Fordo. That American bomb is called the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). It weighs 13,000kg (30,000lb), and is able to penetrate about 18m of concrete or 61m of earth before exploding, according to experts. Fordo tunnels are thought to be 80m to 90m below the surface, so the MOP is not guaranteed to be successful, but it is the only bomb that could come close. US officials have confirmed to the BBC's partner CBS News that MOPs were used in the strikes, with two for each target struck. It is unclear yet what damage the US attack has had on the nuclear enrichment facilities, or whether there are any injuries or casualties. The deputy political director of Iran's state broadcaster, Hassan Abedini, said Iran evacuated these three nuclear sites a "while ago". Appearing on state-run television, he said Iran "didn't suffer a major blow because the materials had already been taken out". Iran has said that more than 200 people were killed since its latest round of fighting with Israel began, and more than 1,200 were injured. Meanwhile, Israel is ramping up security in the wake of the US attacks on Iran's key nuclear sites. Israel has tightened its public security restrictions across the country, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said. The upgrade - including a "prohibition on education activities, gatherings, and workplaces" - comes after the US strikes on Iran. Iran has been weakened significantly by Israel's attacks on its military bases so far, experts say, as well as the dismantling of its regional proxies in Lebanon (Hezbollah), in Syria and in Gaza (Hamas). But Iran is still capable of doing a considerable amount of damage. Iranian officials warned the US against getting involved, saying it would suffer "irreparable damage" and that it risked an "all-out war" in the region. It has threatened to target US bases in the region in retaliation. The US operates military sites across at least 19 regions in the Middle East, including in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Among the most obvious targets for Iran is the US Navy's 5th Fleet HQ at Mina Salman in Bahrain. It could also target a critical shipping route known as the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and through which 30% of the world's oil supply is transported. It could also attack on other sea routes that risk destabilising global markets. Iran could also target the assets of nearby countries it perceives to be aiding the US, which risks the war spilling over to the entire region. Under US law, the president does not have the sole power to formally declare war on another country. Only Congress - lawmakers elected in the House of Representatives and the Senate - can. But the law also states that the president is the Commander in Chief of the armed forces. That means he can deploy US troops and conduct military operations without a formal declaration of war. For example, Trump's decision to conduct airstrikes in Syria in 2017 against the Assad regime did not require approval from Congress. Instead, Trump acted unilaterally, citing national security and humanitarian reasons. Some lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have recently tried to limit Trump's ability to order US strikes on Iran by pushing a war powers resolution through Congress, though it may take weeks before it is put to a formal vote, and such measures are more symbolic than substantive. 'A choice of two evils': Young anti-regime Iranians divided over conflict 'Everyone is scared': Iranians head to Armenia to escape conflict with Israel How one US weapon could change the course of the Israel-Iran conflict
Yahoo
an hour ago
- Yahoo
What we know about US strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities
US President Donald Trump says the American military has completed strikes on three nuclear sites in Iran, marking a significant escalation in the ongoing war between Iran and Israel. "We have completed our very successful attack on the three Nuclear sites in Iran, including Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan. All planes are now outside of Iran air space," he wrote on Truth Social. Trump added that a "full payload of bombs" were dropped on Fordo, an enrichment plant hidden in a remote mountainside that is vital to Iran's nuclear ambitions. Israeli officials say they were in "full coordination" with the US in planning these strikes. Iran could respond by targeting US military assets in the region. Its officials had earlier warned that they would retaliate and that any US attack risked a regional war. Here is a breakdown of what we know so far. Israel launched a surprise attack on dozens of Iranian nuclear and military targets on 13 June. It said its ambition was to dismantle its nuclear programme, which Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said would soon be able to produce a nuclear bomb. Iran insists its nuclear ambitions are peaceful. In retaliation, Tehran launched hundreds of rockets and drones towards Israel. The two countries have continued exchanging strikes since, in an air war which has now lasted more than a week. Trump has long said that he is opposed to Iran possessing a nuclear weapon. In March, US national intelligence director Tulsi Gabbard said that while Iran had increased its uranium stockpile to unprecedented levels, it was not building a nuclear weapon - an assessment that Trump recently said was "wrong". On the campaign trail, President Trump had criticised past US administrations for engaging in "stupid endless wars" in the Middle East, and he vowed to keep America out of foreign conflicts. The US and Iran were in nuclear talks at the time of Israel's surprise attack. Two days ago, President Trump had said he would give Iran two weeks to enter into substantial negotiations before striking - but that timeline turned out to be much, much shorter. Follow live: US attacks Iran nuclear sites Israel-Iran: How did latest conflict start and where could it lead? Iran's secretive nuclear site that only a US bomb could hit One of the sites the US attacked was a secretive nuclear site called Fordo. It is hidden away in a mountainside south of Tehran, and is believed to be deeper underground than the Channel Tunnel connecting the UK and France. The uranium enrichment site is considered by experts to be vital to Iran's nuclear ambitions. Fordo's depth below the Earth's surface has made it difficult to reach with Israel's weaponry. Only the US was considered to have a "bunker buster" bomb strong and large enough to destroy Fordo. That American bomb is called the GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator (MOP). It weighs 13,000kg (30,000lb), and is able to penetrate about 18m of concrete or 61m of earth before exploding, according to experts. Fordo tunnels are thought to be 80m to 90m below the surface, so the MOP is not guaranteed to be successful, but it is the only bomb that could come close. US officials have confirmed to the BBC's partner CBS News that MOPs were used in the strikes, with two for each target struck. It is unclear yet what damage the US attack has had on the nuclear enrichment facilities, or whether there are any injuries or casualties. The deputy political director of Iran's state broadcaster, Hassan Abedini, said Iran evacuated these three nuclear sites a "while ago". Appearing on state-run television, he said Iran "didn't suffer a major blow because the materials had already been taken out". Iran has said that more than 200 people were killed since its latest round of fighting with Israel began, and more than 1,200 were injured. Meanwhile, Israel is ramping up security in the wake of the US attacks on Iran's key nuclear sites. Israel has tightened its public security restrictions across the country, the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) said. The upgrade - including a "prohibition on education activities, gatherings, and workplaces" - comes after the US strikes on Iran. Iran has been weakened significantly by Israel's attacks on its military bases so far, experts say, as well as the dismantling of its regional proxies in Lebanon (Hezbollah), in Syria and in Gaza (Hamas). But Iran is still capable of doing a considerable amount of damage. Iranian officials warned the US against getting involved, saying it would suffer "irreparable damage" and that it risked an "all-out war" in the region. It has threatened to target US bases in the region in retaliation. The US operates military sites across at least 19 regions in the Middle East, including in Bahrain, Egypt, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Among the most obvious targets for Iran is the US Navy's 5th Fleet HQ at Mina Salman in Bahrain. It could also target a critical shipping route known as the Strait of Hormuz, which links the Persian Gulf to the Indian Ocean and through which 30% of the world's oil supply is transported. It could also attack on other sea routes that risk destabilising global markets. Iran could also target the assets of nearby countries it perceives to be aiding the US, which risks the war spilling over to the entire region. Under US law, the president does not have the sole power to formally declare war on another country. Only Congress - lawmakers elected in the House of Representatives and the Senate - can. But the law also states that the president is the Commander in Chief of the armed forces. That means he can deploy US troops and conduct military operations without a formal declaration of war. For example, Trump's decision to conduct airstrikes in Syria in 2017 against the Assad regime did not require approval from Congress. Instead, Trump acted unilaterally, citing national security and humanitarian reasons. Some lawmakers on both sides of the aisle have recently tried to limit Trump's ability to order US strikes on Iran by pushing a war powers resolution through Congress, though it may take weeks before it is put to a formal vote, and such measures are more symbolic than substantive. 'A choice of two evils': Young anti-regime Iranians divided over conflict 'Everyone is scared': Iranians head to Armenia to escape conflict with Israel How one US weapon could change the course of the Israel-Iran conflict
