Improved of late, the Orioles still face an uphill climb to avoid a lost season
A year ago, the Baltimore Orioles looked like a dynasty in the making. Since then, they've been thoroughly mediocre, and even an improved stretch recently hasn't helped their outlook much for 2025.
After losing two of three to the Yankees in New York, the Orioles are 11 games under .500. They've gone 17–10 over their last 27, so perhaps the worst is over, but over the last 162 regular-season games, Baltimore is 75–87. It's a remarkable decline for a team that won 101 games in 2023, started 49–25 last year, and had a core of standouts that was young and cost controlled.
Injuries have been a major factor, with catcher and former No. 1 overall draft pick Adley Rutschman the latest big name to go on the IL. Right-hander Grayson Rodriguez hasn't pitched at all this year. Zach Eflin has made only 11 starts with a 5.46 ERA, and outfielder Colton Cowser and infielder Jordan Westburg have missed significant time as well.
The front office has received little sympathy following an offseason in which ace Corbin Burnes departed, and the Orioles replaced him with stopgap solutions on one-year deals. Although Baltimore is just 6 1/2 games out of a postseason spot, FanGraphs isn't a believer, giving the Orioles just a 3.7 percent chance of making the playoffs.
Baltimore is one of five 2024 postseason participants that would miss out if this season ended today. Here are the others:
SAN DIEGO (42–35 record, 39.3 percent postseason chance, according to FanGraphs): The Padres are a half-game behind resurgent Milwaukee for the last spot in the National League playoffs. San Diego has been treading water since a 23–11 start, and its division just became more interesting after San Francisco acquired Rafael Devers.
CLEVELAND (39–37, 34.1 percent): The Guardians are tied for the final American League spot but would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker to Seattle if the season ended now. Detroit has opened an 8 1/2-game lead in the AL Central, so unless Cleveland can cut into that significantly, it'll be a wild card or bust for the Guardians down the stretch.
ATLANTA (35–41, 27.3 percent): The talent is there, but this past week was typical for the 2025 Braves, who followed up a three-game sweep of the Mets by losing two of three to Miami.
KANSAS CITY (38–40, 20.0 percent): Bobby Witt Jr. can only do so much–only the Pirates have scored fewer runs than the Royals. But the bar in the AL is low, and Kansas City can probably stay in the mix.
Trivia time: In honor of the NBA champion Oklahoma City Thunder, name the five current major league franchises that have won the World Series in multiple cities.
Line of the week: Clarke Schmidt threw seven hitless innings for the New York Yankees on Saturday in their 9–0 win over Baltimore. The Orioles managed only one hit on the day–against the New York bullpen.
Comeback of the week: The Orioles led 8–0 in the third inning at Tampa Bay on Wednesday before the Rays stormed back to win 12–8. Tampa Bay had a 2 percent chance to win at the start of the third, according to Baseball Savant. Yennier Cano allowed four runs in the fifth to tie the game, and he was sent down to the minors later in the week. Andrew Kittredge then allowed four in the seventh. That's the issue for the Orioles. Will their pitching allow the kind of hot streak they'd need to jump back into the playoff race?
Trivia answer: The Athletics (Philadelphia and Oakland), Braves (Boston, Milwaukee, and Atlanta), Dodgers (Brooklyn and Los Angeles), Giants (New York and San Francisco), and Twins (Washington and Minnesota).
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