A man waits in the shadows for the Iranian regime change
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Who is Reza Pahlavi?
Does Reza Pahalvi stand a chance?
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As tensions soar in the Israel-Iran conflict, calls for regime change in Iran have grown louder – from hawks in the United States Congress to Israeli officials and some Iranian activists abroad.They contend that the Islamic Republic is vulnerable, making this an opportune moment to exploit internal turmoil and widespread dissatisfaction to push for the collapse of the clerical regime led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Sunday that Israel's operation 'could certainly' result in regime change, as the government in Iran is 'very weak.' He claimed that '80% of the people would throw these theological thugs out.' Although the country's President Isaac Herzog has recently said that regime change was 'not an official objective of ours,' and the goal was 'to remove the Iranian nuclear program.'Either way, the buzz around regime change is picking up steam, and there's one name that is coming to the front: Reza Pahlavi Reza Pahlavi, officially named Crown Prince of Iran, is the son and successor of Iran's last monarch, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. He left Iran in 1978, at the age of 17, just before the Iranian Revolution overthrew his father and abolished the monarchy, paving the way for the establishment of the Islamic Republic that rules the country today.Although the Pahlavi dynasty was credited by many for its modernising influence in Iran, it was also criticised for its attacks on religion and alleged human rights abuses.Reza Pahlavi, the founder and leader of the National Council of Iran, an exiled opposition group, participates in the Iranian democracy movement and is a prominent critic of Iran's Islamic Republic government.He has sought to exploit the void created by the Israeli strikes to claim to speak for the regime's opponents from his base in the US.Now, he said, he was offering himself as a 'transitional leader' of a secular, democratic alternative to the republic.Launching a scathing attack on Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his regime, Pahlavi recently said, "My fellow Countrymen, the 'Islamic Republic' has reached its end and is in the process of collapsing. Khamenei, like a frightened rat, has gone into hiding underground, and has lost control of the situation. What has begun is irreversible.""For years, I have tried to prevent our homeland from being consumed by the fire of war. The end of the Islamic Republic is the end of its 46-year war against the Iranian nation. The regime's apparatus of repression is finally falling apart."Urging the people to unite and revolt against the Khamenei-led regime, Pahlavi said, "All it takes now is a nationwide uprising to put an end to this nightmare once and for all. Now is the time to rise; the time to reclaim Iran.'The Islamic regime has for years been battling public disgruntlement as anger intensified among an aspirant, youthful population disillusioned with decades of oppressive rule, isolation and economic hardship.And now, with Israeli bombs raining down on the Islamic Republic and the regime locked in a battle for its survival, Pahlavi, the highest-profile regime opponent in exile, is betting that his moment may finally arrive.'This is the first time in all these years that we see the playing field being more even for an opportunity for change,' Pahlavi told the Financial Times.But, he has been a peripheral figure, accused by critics of lacking credibility and unable to form an organised opposition to challenge the theocratic leaders who seized power in 1979.Analysts told FT that Pahlavi does have some support in Iran, as he has tapped frustrations with the regime and nostalgia for the pre-revolutionary era. But the extent of that support is 'debatable', and the Iranian diaspora has long been blighted by internal divisions and accusations that it is out of touch.The additional risk for Pahlavi, who met Netanyahu while visiting Israel in 2023, is that he will be viewed as a collaborator with Iran's aggressor, eroding what support he has in the republic, analysts say.The 64-year-old insisted that Iranians were 'smart enough' to know this is not 'Israel's war with Iran'.Mehrzad Boroujerdi, a US-based Iranian-American academic, told FT, even in a scenario where Israel and the US — if it intervened — defeated Iran and sought to put Pahlavi in power, the story would not end there.'Considering the degree of political polarisation in the country . . . many are going to view him as a puppet of the Israelis and the Americans.'
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