Latest news with #Pahlavi
New Straits Times
an hour ago
- Politics
- New Straits Times
Bigger mess awaits if regime change happens in Iran
ISRAEL increasingly appears eager to oust the leadership that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution but is taking a gamble given the Iranian opposition is divided and there is no guarantee new rulers would be any less hardline, say analysts. By striking targets other than nuclear or ballistic facilities, such as Iran's IRIB broadcaster, expectations have grown that Israel has goals beyond degrading Iranian atomic and missile capabilities and eyes removing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But while United States President Donald Trump has warned "we know" where Khamenei "is hiding", what would follow his removal after over 3½ decades in power is shrouded in uncertainty and risk. European leaders are haunted by the aftermath of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the Nato-led intervention in Libya in 2011. They resulted in the removal of dictators Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi but also in years of bloody mayhem in both countries. "The biggest mistake today is to seek regime change in Iran through military means because that would lead to chaos," said French President Emmanuel Macron at the end of the G7 summit in Canada. "Does anyone think that what was done in Iraq in 2003... or what was done in Libya the previous decade was a good idea? No!" he said. Analysts say ousting Khamenei and his fellow leaders risks creating a vacuum that could be filled by hardline elements in the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) ideological force or the Iranian military. "Israel's strikes seem more focused on regime change than non-proliferation," said Nicole Grajewski, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. "Of course, Israel is targeting ballistic missile and military related facilities but they are also targeting leadership and symbols of the regime like the IRIB. "If the regime were to fall, the hope would be for a liberal and democratic government. "However, there is a strong likelihood that other powerful entities like the IRGC could emerge as the replacement," she said. Among the highest-profile opposition figures is the US-based Reza Pahlavi, the son of ousted shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. He has declared that the Islamic republic is "on the verge of collapse", accusing Khamenei of "hiding underground" like a "frightened rat". Pahlavi has long called for the restoration of the warm relationship that existed between his late father and Israel, to reverse the Islamic republic's refusal to recognise the existence of Israel. Monarchists would like such a rapprochement to be termed the "Cyrus Accords" after the ancient Persian king credited with freeing the Jews from Babylon. But Pahlavi is far from enjoying universal support inside Iran or among exiles. The nationalism of supporters and his ties with Israel are divisive, especially after he refused to condemn the Israeli airstrikes on Iran. Another major organised group is the People's Mujahedin (MEK), whose leader Maryam Rajavi told the European Parliament on Wednesday: "The people of Iran want the overthrow of this regime." But the MEK is despised by other opposition factions and regarded with suspicion by some Iranians for its support of Saddam in the Iran-Iraq war. "Part of the challenge in thinking about alternatives to the Islamic Republic in case it collapses is that there is no organised, democratic alternative," said Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa. He said while Pahlavi "who has by far the most name recognition both in and out of Iran", his supporters "tend to exaggerate his support inside the country". "The only alternative — and this is among the worrying scenarios — is a coup d'etat by the Revolutionary Guards or changing from a theocracy to a military dictatorship." Analysts also warn that a potential — and often overlooked — factor for future instability could be Iran's complex ethnic make-up. Large Kurdish, Arab, Baluch and Turkic minorities coexist alongside the Persian population. Analysts at the US-based think tank Soufan Centre said with the survival of the Iranian regime now viewed as a "strategic failure", the prospect of an "Iraq 2.0" is looming. "The post-regime-change scenario remains unpredictable and could trigger regional destabilisation on a scale greater than Iraq, with global ramifications," they said.
News18
13 hours ago
- Politics
- News18
'Regime Collapsing': Reza Pahlavi Says Talks Over Post-Islamic Republic Iran Underway
Last Updated: Exiled Iranian crown prince Reza Pahlavi claims the Islamic Republic of Iran's command structures are rapidly collapsing, suggesting a significant political change is imminent. Amid the ongoing Middle East crisis involving Iran, exiled Iranian crown prince Reza Pahlavi has indicated towards a significant change in the political landscape of Iran in near future. Referring to the Islamic Republic of Iran, Pahlavi said '…the regime's command and control structures are collapsing at a rapid pace." Describing Tehran as a crumbling regime on the brink of collapse, he stated that discussions have begun about a future Iran without the Islamic Republic. Sources inside Iran say that the regime's command and control structures are collapsing at a rapid pace. Meanwhile, the international community is beginning to realize that the Islamic Republic has no future. Our discussions about a post-Islamic Republic Iran have begun. — Reza Pahlavi (@PahlaviReza) June 19, 2025 First Published:
India Today
14 hours ago
- Politics
- India Today
Post-Islamic Republic Iran talks have begun: Exiled prince Reza Pahlavi
Exiled Iranian crown prince Reza Pahlavi announced on Thursday that discussions have begun about a future Iran without the Islamic Republic, amid what he describes as a crumbling regime on the brink of collapse.'Sources inside Iran say that the regime's command and control structures are collapsing at a rapid pace,' Pahlavi wrote on X. 'Meanwhile, the international community is beginning to realize that the Islamic Republic has no future. Our discussions about a post-Islamic Republic Iran have begun.' Pahlavi, son of the late Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, has lived in exile since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. Sources inside Iran say that the regime's command and control structures are collapsing at a rapid pace. Meanwhile, the international community is beginning to realize that the Islamic Republic has no future. Our discussions about a post-Islamic Republic Iran have begun. Reza Pahlavi (@PahlaviReza) June 19, 2025advertisementOn Wednesday, Pahlavi has issued a blunt call for regime change, claiming that Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei had 'gone into hiding underground' and was losing his grip. 'The Islamic Republic has reached its end,' Pahlavi posted. 'What has begun is irreversible. The future is bright, and together, we will pass through this sharp turn in history.' He called on Iranians across the country to rise up, from 'Bandar Abbas to Bandar Anzali, from Shiraz to Isfahan', saying the moment for national liberation had portrayed Khamenei as a weakened, panicked leader: "Khamenei, like a frightened rat, has gone into hiding underground and has lost control of the situation.""The end of the Islamic Republic is the end of its 46-year war against the Iranian nation," Pahlavi exiled royal also appealed directly to Iran's military and security personnel, many of whom he claims are already reaching out to him privately. "Do not sacrifice yourselves for a decaying regime," he wrote. "By standing with the people, you can save your lives. Play a historic role in the transition."
Int'l Business Times
a day ago
- Politics
- Int'l Business Times
If Iran's Khamenei Falls, What Would Replace Him?
Israel increasingly appears eager to oust the clerical leadership that has ruled Iran since the 1979 Islamic revolution but is taking a gamble given the Iranian opposition is divided and there is no guarantee new rulers would be any less hardline, analysts say. By striking targets other than nuclear or ballistic facilities, such as Iran's IRIB broadcaster, expectations have grown that Israel has goals beyond degrading Iranian atomic and missile capabilities and eyes removing supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. But while President Donald Trump has warned "we know" where Khamenei "is hiding", what would follow his removal after over three-and-a-half decades in power is shrouded in uncertainty and risk. European leaders are haunted by the aftermath of the US-led invasion of Iraq in 2003 and the NATO-led intervention in Libya in 2011. They resulted in the removal of dictators Saddam Hussein and Moamer Kadhafi but also in years of bloody mayhem in both countries. "The biggest mistake today is to seek regime change in Iran through military means because that would lead to chaos," French President Emmanuel Macron said at the end of the G7 summit in Canada. "Does anyone think that what was done in Iraq in 2003... or what was done in Libya the previous decade was a good idea? No!" Macron said. Analysts say ousting Khamenei and his fellow clerical leaders risks creating a vacuum that could be filled by hardline elements in the Revolutionary Guards (IRGC) ideological force or the Iranian military. "Israel's strikes seem more focused on regime change than non-proliferation," said Nicole Grajewski, fellow at the Carnegie Endowment. "Of course Israel is targeting ballistic missile and military related facilities but they are also targeting leadership and symbols of the regime like the IRIB," she told AFP. "If the regime were to fall, the hope would be for a liberal and democratic government. "However, there is a strong likelihood that other powerful entities like the IRGC could emerge as the replacement," she said. Among the highest-profile opposition figures is the US-based Reza Pahlavi, the son of ousted shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. He has declared that the Islamic republic is "on the verge of collapse", accusing Khamenei of "hiding underground" like a "frightened rat". Pahlavi has long called for the restoration of the warm relationship that existed between his late father and Israel, to reverse the Islamic republic's refusal to recognise the existence of Israel. Monarchists would like such a rapprochement to be termed the "Cyrus Accords" after the ancient Persian king credited with freeing the Jews from Babylon. But Pahlavi is far from enjoying universal support inside Iran or among exiles. The nationalism of supporters and his ties with Israel are divisive, especially after he refused to condemn the Israeli air strikes on Iran. Another major organised group is the People's Mujahedin (MEK), whose leader Maryam Rajavi told the European Parliament on Wednesday: "The people of Iran want the overthrow of this regime." But the MEK is despised by other opposition factions and regarded with suspicion by some Iranians for its support of Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraq war. "Part of the challenge in thinking about alternatives to the Islamic Republic in case it collapses is that there is no organised, democratic alternative," said Thomas Juneau, professor at the University of Ottawa. He said that while Reza Pahlavi is the opposition leader "who has by far the most name recognition both in and out of Iran", his supporters "tend to exaggerate his support inside the country". "The only alternative -- and this is among the worrying scenarios -- is a coup d'etat by the Revolutionary Guards or changing from a theocracy to a military dictatorship." Analysts also warn that a potential -- and often overlooked -- factor for future instability could be Iran's complex ethnic make-up. Large Kurdish, Arab, Baluch and Turkic minorities co-exist alongside the Persian population. "There will also be an effort to capitalise on ethnic divisions by hostile countries," said Grajewski. Analysts at the US-based think tank Soufan Center said that with the survival of the Iranian regime now viewed as a "strategic failure", the prospect of an "Iraq 2.0" is looming. "The post-regime-change scenario remains unpredictable and could trigger regional destabilisation on a scale greater than Iraq, with global ramifications," they said. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has been Iran's supreme leader since 1989 AFP It remains unclear what would replace the system led by Khamenei AFP Reza Pahlavi is among the most prominent opposition figures AFP The Islamic revolution ousted the father of Reza Pahlavi (L) AFP
Time of India
a day ago
- Politics
- Time of India
A man waits in the shadows for the Iranian regime change
Live Events Who is Reza Pahlavi? Does Reza Pahalvi stand a chance? (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our Economic Times WhatsApp channel As tensions soar in the Israel-Iran conflict, calls for regime change in Iran have grown louder – from hawks in the United States Congress to Israeli officials and some Iranian activists contend that the Islamic Republic is vulnerable, making this an opportune moment to exploit internal turmoil and widespread dissatisfaction to push for the collapse of the clerical regime led by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told Fox News on Sunday that Israel's operation 'could certainly' result in regime change, as the government in Iran is 'very weak.' He claimed that '80% of the people would throw these theological thugs out.' Although the country's President Isaac Herzog has recently said that regime change was 'not an official objective of ours,' and the goal was 'to remove the Iranian nuclear program.'Either way, the buzz around regime change is picking up steam, and there's one name that is coming to the front: Reza Pahlavi Reza Pahlavi, officially named Crown Prince of Iran, is the son and successor of Iran's last monarch, Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. He left Iran in 1978, at the age of 17, just before the Iranian Revolution overthrew his father and abolished the monarchy, paving the way for the establishment of the Islamic Republic that rules the country the Pahlavi dynasty was credited by many for its modernising influence in Iran, it was also criticised for its attacks on religion and alleged human rights Pahlavi, the founder and leader of the National Council of Iran, an exiled opposition group, participates in the Iranian democracy movement and is a prominent critic of Iran's Islamic Republic has sought to exploit the void created by the Israeli strikes to claim to speak for the regime's opponents from his base in the he said, he was offering himself as a 'transitional leader' of a secular, democratic alternative to the a scathing attack on Iran's Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and his regime, Pahlavi recently said, "My fellow Countrymen, the 'Islamic Republic' has reached its end and is in the process of collapsing. Khamenei, like a frightened rat, has gone into hiding underground, and has lost control of the situation. What has begun is irreversible.""For years, I have tried to prevent our homeland from being consumed by the fire of war. The end of the Islamic Republic is the end of its 46-year war against the Iranian nation. The regime's apparatus of repression is finally falling apart."Urging the people to unite and revolt against the Khamenei-led regime, Pahlavi said, "All it takes now is a nationwide uprising to put an end to this nightmare once and for all. Now is the time to rise; the time to reclaim Iran.'The Islamic regime has for years been battling public disgruntlement as anger intensified among an aspirant, youthful population disillusioned with decades of oppressive rule, isolation and economic now, with Israeli bombs raining down on the Islamic Republic and the regime locked in a battle for its survival, Pahlavi, the highest-profile regime opponent in exile, is betting that his moment may finally arrive.'This is the first time in all these years that we see the playing field being more even for an opportunity for change,' Pahlavi told the Financial he has been a peripheral figure, accused by critics of lacking credibility and unable to form an organised opposition to challenge the theocratic leaders who seized power in told FT that Pahlavi does have some support in Iran, as he has tapped frustrations with the regime and nostalgia for the pre-revolutionary era. But the extent of that support is 'debatable', and the Iranian diaspora has long been blighted by internal divisions and accusations that it is out of additional risk for Pahlavi, who met Netanyahu while visiting Israel in 2023, is that he will be viewed as a collaborator with Iran's aggressor, eroding what support he has in the republic, analysts 64-year-old insisted that Iranians were 'smart enough' to know this is not 'Israel's war with Iran'.Mehrzad Boroujerdi, a US-based Iranian-American academic, told FT, even in a scenario where Israel and the US — if it intervened — defeated Iran and sought to put Pahlavi in power, the story would not end there.'Considering the degree of political polarisation in the country . . . many are going to view him as a puppet of the Israelis and the Americans.'
