There's a 50/50 Chance the Milky Way and Andromeda Galaxy Will Merge
The universe might not meet its end for another quinvigintillion years, but our galaxy's fate teeters on a far less certain line. New research shows that there's a 50% chance that the Milky Way and its nearest major galactic neighbor, the Andromeda Galaxy, will converge within the next 10 billion years. Previous analyses have made out the convergence to be a sure-fire thing, but it turns out that one dwarf galaxy is recalibrating the scales.
Though about 2.5 million light-years currently lie between the Milky Way and Andromeda, the two galaxies are creeping closer to each other. In 1913, astronomer Vesto Melvin Slipher noticed via Arizona's Lowell Observatory that Andromeda (then known as the Andromeda Nebula) was approaching the Milky Way at 186 miles per second. Since then, researchers have not only verified Slipher's math but also found via multiple simulations that Andromeda will someday combine with the Milky Way. One paper from 2021 even proposes that the two galaxies will meet 4.3 billion years from now, with a complete merger taking another 6 billion years after that.
But these simulations failed to account for one small yet mighty factor: the Large Magellanic Cloud. Roughly 160,000 light-years from our Milky Way, this dwarf galaxy has long been considered an insignificant part of the so-called Local Group. But in 2015, the beginning of the Survey of the MAgellanic Stellar History, or SMASH, found that the Large Magellanic Cloud was larger and more complex than initially thought. Astronomers have spent the years since sifting through SMASH data for dwarf galaxy secrets.
Illustration of a hypothetical merger between the Milky Way and Andromeda Galaxy. Credit: NASA, ESA, STScI, DSS, Till Sawala (University of Helsinki); Image Processing: Joseph DePasquale (STScI)
It's for this reason that the latest Milky Way-Andromeda merger simulation actually includes the Large Magellanic Cloud. To cover for every possible uncertainty, an international team of astronomers ran their simulation nearly 100,000 times and found that just under 50% of the time, the Milky Way and Andromeda collided and merged. Alternately dropping different nearby galaxies showed that Messier 33 (the third largest galaxy in the Local Group) made a merger more likely, while the Large Magellanic Cloud reduced the odds of a convergence. That's because the Large Magellanic Cloud pulls the Milky Way out of Andromeda's path, as a comic book hero would pull a civilian off some train tracks.
The Large Magellanic Cloud might only get to bask in its glory for a few hundred million years, however. The researchers' simulation showed that the Milky Way will almost certainly collide with the Large Magellanic Cloud in 2 billion years, disappearing the latter galaxy.
As observatories gather more data about the universe—and scientists' models inevitably become more advanced—we'll find out whether the Large Magellanic Cloud really will swoop in to save the day. Of course, we won't see the benefit either way. But it will be nice to know whether our galactic home will continue to exist after we're gone.
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'NSF-DOE Rubin Observatory will capture more information about our universe than all optical telescopes throughout history combined,' said National Science Foundation Chief of Staff Brian Stone, who is currently performing the duties of the NSF director (as the position is currently vacant). Among the observatory's initial accomplishments was the discovery of 2,104 asteroids, including seven near-Earth asteroids, that have never been seen before in our solar system. None of the newly found near-Earth asteroids pose a risk to our planet, according to scientists at the observatory. Imagery of the asteroids is expected to be shared later Monday. While ground- and space-based telescopes spot about 20,000 asteroids each year, Rubin Observatory is expected to uncover millions of the space rocks within its first two years, according to the National Science Foundation. 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'NSF-DOE Rubin Observatory will capture more information about our universe than all optical telescopes throughout history combined,' said National Science Foundation Chief of Staff Brian Stone, who is currently performing the duties of the NSF director (as the position is currently vacant). Among the observatory's initial accomplishments was the discovery of 2,104 asteroids, including seven near-Earth asteroids, that have never been seen before in our solar system. None of the newly found near-Earth asteroids pose a risk to our planet, according to scientists at the observatory. Imagery of the asteroids is expected to be shared later Monday. While ground- and space-based telescopes spot about 20,000 asteroids each year, Rubin Observatory is expected to uncover millions of the space rocks within its first two years, according to the National Science Foundation. The telescope is also considered the most effective way to spot any interstellar comets or asteroids that may travel through our solar system. The observatory's mirror design, sensitive camera and telescope speed are all the first of its kind, enabling Rubin to spot tiny, faint objects such as asteroids. The observatory will also constantly take thousands of images every night, cataloging changes in brightness to reveal otherwise hidden space rocks like near-Earth asteroids that could be on a collision course with our planet, according to the foundation. A sneak peek shared Monday includes a video made from over 1,100 images captured by the observatory that begins with a detailed look at two galaxies. The video then zooms out to showcase about 10 million galaxies spotted by the camera's wide view — roughly 0.05% of the 20 billion galaxies Rubin will observe over 10 years. The observatory team also released a mosaic of the Trifid and Lagoon nebulae, which are star-forming regions that resemble clouds located in the Sagittarius constellation. The mosaic, made up of 678 separate images taken over just seven hours, captured faint and previously invisible details such as clouds of gas and dust in the nebulae, which are several thousand light-years away from Earth. The initial images were selected to showcase the telescope's enormous field of view, which enables detailed glimpses of interacting galaxies as well as broad views of millions of galaxies, said Dr. Yusra AlSayyad, deputy associate director of the data management subsystem for the Rubin Observatory. 'It has such a wide field of view and such a rapid cadence that you do have that movielike aspect to the night sky,' said Dr. Sandrine Thomas, telescope project scientist for the Rubin Observatory. The observatory, located in the Andes on the top of Cerro Pachón in Chile, is nearly complete after about two decades of work. The facility is set to achieve 'first light,' or make the first scientific observations of the Southern Hemisphere's sky using its 8.4-meter (27.5-foot) Simonyi Survey Telescope, on July 4. The telescope's location in the Southern Hemisphere allows for a great view of the Milky Way's galactic center, said Edward Ajhar, Rubin Observatory's program officer. The region in central Chile has also been home to other ground-based observatories and is favored for astronomical observations because it affords dry air and dark skies. The observatory's main objective is the Legacy Survey of Space and Time, an ultrawide and ultra-high-definition movie of the universe made by scanning the entire sky every few nights over 10 years to capture a time-lapse compilation of whizzing asteroids and comets, exploding stars, and distant galaxies as they change. The survey is expected to begin between four to seven months after first light. '(Rubin) will enable us to explore galaxies, stars in the Milky Way, objects in the solar system, and all in a truly new way. Since we take images of the night sky so quickly and so often, (it) will detect millions of changing objects literally every night,' said Dr. Aaron Roodman, professor of particle physics and astrophysics at Stanford University's SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory in California. Roodman was responsible for the assembly and testing of Rubin Observatory's camera. Rubin's capabilities to spot interesting phenomena will also enable it to be a 'discovery machine' that can identify interesting areas of focus for other telescopes, Roodman said. The observatory could also enable the detection of previously unknown types of celestial objects. The telescope's namesake, considered to be one of the most influential women astronomers, provided some of the first evidence that dark matter existed. In Rubin's honor, the telescope is expected to continue her pioneering work. 'Through this remarkable scientific facility, we will explore many cosmic mysteries, including the dark matter and dark energy that permeate the universe,' Stone said. Dark matter is an enigmatic substance that shapes the cosmos, while dark energy is a force that accelerates the expansion rate of the universe, according to NASA. Though they are thought to make up most of the cosmos, both are impossible to directly observe but can be detected due to their gravitational effects. 'Rubin has enormous potential to help us learn what dark energy really is and how the universe's expansion is accelerating here, too,' Roodman said. 'Rubin's unique ability to see billions of galaxies and to image them repeatedly over 10 years will literally enable us to see the universe in a new way.'
