Latest news with #LargeMagellanicCloud
Yomiuri Shimbun
12-06-2025
- Science
- Yomiuri Shimbun
Lower Chance of Milky Way, Andromeda Merger Detected
NASA / ESA / Z. Levay and R. van der Marel / STScI / T. Hallas and A. Mellinger / Handout via Reuters A stage in the potential merger between the Milky Way galaxy, right, and the neighboring Andromeda galaxy, as viewed in Earth's night sky in 3.75 billion years is seen in this illustration released by NASA in May 2012. WASHINGTON (Reuters) — The Milky Way and the neighboring Andromeda galaxy are currently hurtling through space toward each other at a speed of about 400,000 kph, setting up a possible future galactic collision that would wreck both of them. But how likely is this cosmic crash? While previous research forecast it to occur roughly 4 billion-4.5 billion years from now, a new study that uses recent observational data and adds fresh variables indicates that a collision is far from certain. It puts the likelihood of a collision in the next 5 billion years at less than 2% and one in the next 10 billion years at about 50%. Galactic mergers are not like a demolition derby, with stars and planets crashing into each other, but rather a complicated blending on an immense scale. 'The future collision — if it happens — would be the end of both the Milky Way and Andromeda,' said University of Helsinki astrophysicist Till Sawala, lead author of the study published on June 2 in the journal Nature Astronomy, with the structure of both being destroyed and a new galaxy with an elliptical shape arising from the merger. 'If a merger happens, it is more likely to occur 7 billion-8 billion years in the future. But we find that based on the current data, we cannot predict the time of a merger, if it happens at all,' Sawala said. The two galaxies currently are around 2.5 million light-years from each other. The sun is one of the Milky Way's many billions of stars. The total mass of our spiral-shaped galaxy — including its stars and interstellar gas as well as its dark matter, which is invisible material whose presence is revealed by its gravitational effects — is estimated at approximately one trillion times the mass of the sun. The Andromeda galaxy has a shape and total mass similar to the Milky Way's. The researchers simulated the Milky Way's movement over the next 10 billion years using updated data from the Gaia and Hubble space telescopes and various ground-based telescopes as well as revised galactic mass estimates. Other nearby galaxies are forecast to factor into whether a collision occurs. Previous research accounted for the gravitational influence of the Triangulum galaxy, also called Messier 33 or M33, which is about half the size of the Milky Way and Andromeda, but did consider the Large Magellanic Cloud, a smaller satellite galaxy of the Milky Way, as this study does. 'We find that if only M33 is added to the two-body system, the chance of a Milky Way-Andromeda merger actually increases, but the inclusion of the Large Magellanic Cloud has the opposite effect,' Sawala said. The researchers concluded that a merger between the Milky Way and the Large Magellanic Cloud is almost certain within the next 2 billion years, long before a potential collision with Andromeda. One noteworthy difference between the Milky Way and Andromeda is the mass of the supermassive black holes at their centers. The Milky Way's Sagittarius A*, or Sgr A*, is about 4 million times the mass of the sun. Its Andromeda counterpart is about 100 million the sun's mass. 'Collisions between stars are very unlikely, but the two supermassive black holes would sink to the center of the newly formed galaxy, where they would eventually merge,' Sawala said. Galactic mergers have occurred since the universe's early stages and are particularly common in areas of the universe where galaxies are clustered together. 'In the early universe, galaxy mergers were much more frequent, so the first mergers would have occurred very shortly after the first galaxies had formed,' Sawala said. 'Minor mergers — with much smaller galaxies — happen more frequently. Indeed, the Milky Way is currently merging with several dwarf galaxies,' Sawala said.
The Hill
06-06-2025
- Science
- The Hill
Milky Way has 50-50 chance of colliding with neighbor galaxy
The collision of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies that scientists believed was inevitable has a much lower probability than previously thought. The Associated Press reported Monday that astronomers in Finland have determined that our galaxy has a 50-50 chance of colliding with the neighboring Andromeda within the next 10 billion years. The previous theory suggested that the two galaxies had a high probability of colliding within the next five billion years. 'Based on the best available data, the fate of our galaxy is still completely open,' the team wrote in the study, which appeared in Nature Astronomy. A team led by University of Helsinki researcher Till Sawala simulated all possible scenarios using the latest data from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's Gaia star-tracking mission. According to the simulation yielded some surprising results. 'A head-on collision is very unlikely, we found a less than 2 percent chance for that,' Sawala said. 'In most of the cases that lead to a merger, the two galaxies will indeed fly past each other at first, which will lead to a loss of orbital energy, and subsequently to a merger. 'How close they come on their first passage is very uncertain, however, and if they don't come very close, meaning if their distance is more than around 500,000 light-years, they might not merge at all,' the researcher added. Sawala said he was not prepared for what his team found. 'In short, the probability went from near-certainty to a coin flip,' Sawala noted. The study relied on newer and more precise information, and the team took into consideration a 'more complete system,' including the potential effects of the Large Magellanic Cloud. The dwarf galaxy is the Milky Way's largest satellite galaxy, reported. Ultimately, the astronomers found that the Milky Way and Andromeda would inevitably collide if the two galaxies' orbits come close enough to affect a gravitational pull on one another. If they stay well separated, the merger won't happen. While the scenarios indicated a less likely merger between the two, they found that the Milky Way is far more likely to cannibalize the Large Magellanic Cloud. The research indicates that this newly theorized merger is likely to happen over the next two billion years.
Yahoo
05-06-2025
- Science
- Yahoo
Milky Way has 50-50 chance of colliding with neighbor galaxy
(NewsNation) — The collision of the Milky Way and Andromeda galaxies that scientists believed was inevitable has a much lower probability than previously thought. The Associated Press reported Monday that astronomers in Finland have determined that our galaxy has a 50-50 chance of colliding with the neighboring Andromeda within the next 10 billion years. The previous theory suggested that the two galaxies had a high probability of colliding within the next five billion years. 'Based on the best available data, the fate of our galaxy is still completely open,' the team wrote in the study, which appeared in Nature Astronomy. A team led by University of Helsinki researcher Til Sawala simulated all possible scenarios using the latest data from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's Gaia star-tracking mission. According to the simulation yielded some surprising results. Astronomers discover strange new celestial object in our Milky Way galaxy 'A head-on collision is very unlikely, we found a less than 2% chance for that,' Sawala said. 'In most of the cases that lead to a merger, the two galaxies will indeed fly past each other at first, which will lead to a loss of orbital energy, and subsequently to a merger. 'How close they come on their first passage is very uncertain, however, and if they don't come very close, meaning if their distance is more than around 500,000 light-years, they might not merge at all.' Sawala said he was not prepared for what his team found. 'In short, the probability went from near-certainty to a coin flip,' the researcher said. An accidental discovery at a planetarium opens a window into the universe's inner workings The study relied on newer and more precise information, and the team took into consideration a 'more complete system,' including the potential effects of the Large Magellanic Cloud. The dwarf galaxy is the Milky Way's largest satellite galaxy, reported. Ultimately, the astronomers found that the Milky Way and Andromeda would inevitably collide if the two galaxies' orbits come close enough to affect a gravitational pull on one another. If they stay well separated, the merger won't happen. While the scenarios indicated a less likely merger between the two, they found that the Milky Way is far more likely to cannibalize the Large Magellanic Cloud. The research indicates that this newly theorized merger is likely to happen over the next two billion years. Copyright 2025 Nexstar Media, Inc. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten, or redistributed.
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First Post
04-06-2025
- General
- First Post
Our galaxy can breathe easy: Milky Way may not collide with Andromeda, says new research
The study still indicates a small chance, around 2 per cent, of a direct collision between Milky Way and Andromeda in 4 to 5 billion years. However, humanity will have long ceased to exist by then read more Recent research based on data from the Hubble and ESA's Gaia space telescopes has cast doubts over the long-standing prediction about the collision and merger of the Milky Way with the Andromeda galaxy. The findings suggest that this event is far less certain than previously believed by astronomers and experts. Only 50% chance of collision in next 10 bn years By carefully considering uncertainties in current measurements and including the gravitational effects of nearby galaxies (the Large Magellanic Cloud, which is a massive satellite galaxy currently merging with the Milky Way, and M33, or the Triangulum Galaxy, which orbits Andromeda), researchers discovered that in approximately half of their Monte-Carlo simulations, the Milky Way and Andromeda do not merge within the next 10 billion years. This means there is only about a 50 per cent chance of the two galaxies merging in the next 10 billion years. The galaxy images provided illustrate three potential scenarios for encounters between the Milky Way and Andromeda. STORY CONTINUES BELOW THIS AD In the top left panel, a wide-field Digitised Sky Survey (DSS) image of galaxies M81 and M82 exemplifies the Milky Way and Andromeda passing each other at large distances. The top right panel shows NGC 6786, a pair of interacting galaxies exhibiting signs of tidal disturbances after a close encounter. The bottom panel displays NGC 520, depicting two galaxies actively merging in a cosmic collision. Animations predicting the collision of these two galaxies in about 4 billion years, followed by their merger 2 billion years later, do not account for uncertainties in various measured parameters. Only 2% chance of direct collision in 5 bn years The study still indicates a small chance, around 2 per cent, of a direct collision between the galaxies in 4 to 5 billion years. However, humanity will have long ceased to exist by then, as the Sun will have rendered Earth uninhabitable in roughly 1 billion years. This differs from previous analysis, which claimed the two galaxies would collide and create cosmic fireworks because they are moving towards each other at a pace of 2,24,000 miles per hour.
New York Post
03-06-2025
- General
- New York Post
Is this the end of the world? How a galactic pile-up could bring Earth's violent end: Cosmic ‘coin flip'
Forget killer asteroids and nuclear annihilation — Earth's ultimate fate may hinge on a cosmic coin toss. Astronomers have revealed that our Milky Way galaxy has a 50/50 chance of colliding with its massive neighbor, the Andromeda galaxy, sometime in the next 10 billion years — an intergalactic smash-up that could fling our solar system into deep space or swallow Earth whole. Cue the sci-fi panic — or not. 'It used to appear destined to merge with Andromeda forming a colossal 'Milkomeda,'' said Professor Alis Deason, a computational cosmologist at Durham University, per The Daily Mail. 'Now, there is a chance that we could avoid this fate entirely.' In other words: The end of the world may not be as inevitable as we thought — at least not from the galaxy next door. 3 It's a cosmic coin toss: Astronomers say the Milky Way has a 50/50 shot at slamming into the giant Andromeda galaxy — a galactic train wreck that could hurl Earth into deep space or gobble it up for good. NASA/ESA/AFP via Getty Images The new study, published in 'Nature Astronomy,' analyzed 100,000 simulations of the Milky Way's future. The findings — thanks to refined data from NASA's Hubble Space Telescope and the European Space Agency's Gaia mission — dramatically downshifted previous predictions of a guaranteed galactic pile-up in just 5 billion years. 'In short, the probability went from near-certainty to a coin flip,' lead author Dr. Till Sawala, of the University of Helsinki, revealed to The findings factor in the gravitational tug of neighboring galaxies — most notably the Large Magellanic Cloud, a much smaller satellite galaxy whose pull may be yanking the Milky Way off a crash course. 'The main difference between our research and previous studies is that we benefited from newer and more precise data, and that we considered a more complete system,' Sawala said to the site. While a 220,000 mph galaxy-on-galaxy collision sounds catastrophic, astronomers say a head-on impact is 'very unlikely.' 3 New data from NASA's Hubble and Europe's Gaia missions just pumped the brakes on doomsday, slashing the odds of a galactic fender-bender once pegged for 5 billion years out. Nature Astronomy In fact, only 2% of simulations showed a direct hit within 5 billion years. Most scenarios had the galaxies swirling toward each other, possibly merging much later — or not at all. Still, if they do collide, it could be a literal star show. 'We see external galaxies often colliding and merging with other galaxies, sometimes producing the equivalent of cosmic fireworks,' said Durham cosmologist Professor Carlos Frenk, via The Daily Mail. 'Until now, we thought this was the fate that awaited our Milky Way galaxy. We now know that there is a very good chance that we may avoid that scary destiny.' But even if Earth sidesteps this stellar shakedown, don't get too comfortable. As The Post previously reported, our sun is expected to become a bloated red giant in about 5 billion years — likely boiling away Earth's oceans or swallowing the planet entirely. So, yeah. Pick your apocalypse. 3 The new study shows nearby galaxies — especially the smaller but mighty Large Magellanic Cloud — are messing with the Milky Way's path, possibly steering it away from a cosmic crash. ESA/ATG medialab / SWNS 'If [the Milky Way-Andromeda collision] happens, it might take place after the Earth and the sun no longer exist,' Sawala told The Daily Mail. 'Even if it happens before that, it's very unlikely that something would happen to Earth in this case.' Translation: By the time the universe gets around to smashing the Milky Way, we'll probably already be toast. Still, some experts say galactic fate is more than just an astronomer's obsession. 'The fate of our Milky Way galaxy is a subject of broad interest — not just to astronomers,' Raja GuhaThakurta of the University of California, Santa Cruz, told the Associated Press. And while the galaxy might survive — barely — we may not. As Sawala put it: 'Of course, there is also a very significant chance that humanity will bring an end to itself still much before that, without any need for astrophysical help.' Talk about a stellar self-own.
