Bosnia-Herzegovina reforms a strategic necessity
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This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Agreement, a landmark accord that ended the Bosnian War of 1992-1995 and brought a fragile peace to Bosnia-Herzegovina. On this significant occasion, I had the privilege of hosting a panel of experts in Dayton, Ohio — where the agreement was originally signed — that was titled 'Next Steps After Dayton? Getting to Constitutional Reform in BiH,' referring to Bosnia-Herzegovina.
The panel, convened by the New Lines Institute, featured distinguished voices including former US Ambassador to Bosnia Michael Murphy; Ensar Eminovic, minister counselor at the Bosnia-Herzegovina Embassy in Washington; Dr. Miomir Zuzul, senior international policy adviser at Arnold & Porter; and Dr. Jasmin Mujanovic, author of the institute's recent report, 'Dayton Plus: A Policymaker's Guide to Constitutional Reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina.' Together, we reflected on Dayton's legacy and the urgent need for reform to secure the country's future.
The Dayton Agreement was a monumental achievement, halting a devastating conflict that claimed countless lives and displaced millions. It established a complex constitutional framework under Annex IV, dividing Bosnia-Herzegovina into two entities — the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska — alongside the self-governing Brcko District. However, while Dayton brought peace, it also entrenched a governance structure that has proven to be a barrier to progress. The agreement's rigid ethnic power-sharing mechanisms, designed to balance the interests of Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats, have fostered dysfunction, discrimination and stagnation.
Today, Bosnia-Herzegovina's constitutional regime is a labyrinth of inefficiency. The tripartite presidency, entity vetoes and sectarian electoral rules exclude approximately 400,000 citizens — particularly those identifying as 'Others' (e.g., Jews, Roma or those who reject ethnic labels) — from meaningful political participation. The European Court of Human Rights has repeatedly struck down provisions of the constitution as discriminatory, a legal obligation the country is bound to address under its own laws, but progress remains stalled. This de facto constitutional crisis undermines Bosnia-Herzegovina's aspirations for EU and NATO membership, a goal that requires rational governance and accountability — outcomes the current system cannot deliver.
The demographic reality in Bosnia-Herzegovina underscores the urgent need for reform. Since the 2013 census, which recorded a population of 3.5 million, estimates suggest that number has plummeted to under 2 million due to mass emigration, particularly among the youth. In Republika Srpska, claims of a 1.4 million population may mask a reality closer to 800,000. This exodus reflects a lack of hope in a system that denies citizens a stake in their future, perpetuating corruption and ethnic division over shared prosperity.
Mujanovic outlined a clear case for reform. The current constitution promotes irrational governance, incentivizes sectarian maximalism and allows neighboring states to meddle in Bosnia-Herzegovina's affairs, heightening the risk of renewed conflict. Conversely, constitutional reform could foster accountable governance, ensure equal rights for all citizens and pave a credible path for Euro-Atlantic integration by 2040. The benefits are clear: a shift from zero-sum politics to a system that values individual rights over collective ethnic identities, reduces foreign interference and empowers Bosnia-Herzegovina to stand as a sovereign, democratic state.
While the Dayton Agreement brought peace, it also entrenched a governance structure that has proven to be a barrier to progress
Dr. Azeem Ibrahim
However, the path to reform is fraught with challenges. Political elites, entrenched in the status quo, resist change, fearing a loss of power. The Office of the High Representative, with its expansive Bonn Powers, has intervened in the past — most notably during the 2022 Bosnia-Herzegovina election — but such external impositions are not sustainable. True reform must come from within, supported by international partners like the US and the EU, which have historically expected irrational systems to yield rational outcomes. This flawed premise has led to repeated policy failures in Bosnia-Herzegovina, as our report notes, unless accompanied by sustained international pressure.
'Dayton Plus' proposes a model for limited constitutional reform that balances pragmatism with ambition. It suggests a single, non-ethnically designated president with ceremonial powers, elected through a two-round system to encourage moderate outcomes. Executive authority would shift to the Council of Ministers, with a redefined entity veto mechanism to prevent abuse.
Unicameral legislatures at all levels, caucus-based vital national interest protections and electoral reforms like ranked-choice voting aim to dismantle the winner-takes-all mentality. These changes would not overhaul Bosnia-Herzegovina's structure entirely but would normalize constitutional reform as a routine democratic process, building momentum for future progress.
Today, that reform is not just necessary — it is achievable. The original Dayton Agreement proved that, with political will, even the most intractable conflicts can be resolved. Today, the task of amending Bosnia-Herzegovina's constitution in line with European Court of Human Rights rulings is far less daunting than ending a war in 1995. What is needed now is the same determination, coupled with imagination, to chart a new course for Bosnia-Herzegovina.
As we look to the future, the Euro-Atlantic community must recommit to Bosnia-Herzegovina's stability. The Western Balkans remains a geopolitical flashpoint, with Russia and China exploiting governance weaknesses to sow discord. Constitutional reform in Bosnia-Herzegovina is not just a domestic imperative but a strategic necessity for regional security. By supporting it in this endeavor, the US and the EU can help complete the vision of a Europe whole and free — a vision Dayton began but cannot fulfill without change.
The 30th anniversary of Dayton is a moment to celebrate peace, but also to act. Bosnia-Herzegovina's citizens deserve a system that reflects their shared hopes, not their divided past. Let us work together to make that vision a reality.
*Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim
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Arab News
02-06-2025
- Arab News
Bosnia-Herzegovina reforms a strategic necessity
This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Dayton Agreement, a landmark accord that ended the Bosnian War of 1992-1995 and brought a fragile peace to Bosnia-Herzegovina. On this significant occasion, I had the privilege of hosting a panel of experts in Dayton, Ohio — where the agreement was originally signed — that was titled 'Next Steps After Dayton? Getting to Constitutional Reform in BiH,' referring to Bosnia-Herzegovina. The panel, convened by the New Lines Institute, featured distinguished voices including former US Ambassador to Bosnia Michael Murphy; Ensar Eminovic, minister counselor at the Bosnia-Herzegovina Embassy in Washington; Dr. Miomir Zuzul, senior international policy adviser at Arnold & Porter; and Dr. Jasmin Mujanovic, author of the institute's recent report, 'Dayton Plus: A Policymaker's Guide to Constitutional Reform in Bosnia and Herzegovina.' Together, we reflected on Dayton's legacy and the urgent need for reform to secure the country's future. The Dayton Agreement was a monumental achievement, halting a devastating conflict that claimed countless lives and displaced millions. It established a complex constitutional framework under Annex IV, dividing Bosnia-Herzegovina into two entities — the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and Republika Srpska — alongside the self-governing Brcko District. However, while Dayton brought peace, it also entrenched a governance structure that has proven to be a barrier to progress. The agreement's rigid ethnic power-sharing mechanisms, designed to balance the interests of Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats, have fostered dysfunction, discrimination and stagnation. Today, Bosnia-Herzegovina's constitutional regime is a labyrinth of inefficiency. The tripartite presidency, entity vetoes and sectarian electoral rules exclude approximately 400,000 citizens — particularly those identifying as 'Others' (e.g., Jews, Roma or those who reject ethnic labels) — from meaningful political participation. The European Court of Human Rights has repeatedly struck down provisions of the constitution as discriminatory, a legal obligation the country is bound to address under its own laws, but progress remains stalled. This de facto constitutional crisis undermines Bosnia-Herzegovina's aspirations for EU and NATO membership, a goal that requires rational governance and accountability — outcomes the current system cannot deliver. The demographic reality in Bosnia-Herzegovina underscores the urgent need for reform. Since the 2013 census, which recorded a population of 3.5 million, estimates suggest that number has plummeted to under 2 million due to mass emigration, particularly among the youth. In Republika Srpska, claims of a 1.4 million population may mask a reality closer to 800,000. This exodus reflects a lack of hope in a system that denies citizens a stake in their future, perpetuating corruption and ethnic division over shared prosperity. Mujanovic outlined a clear case for reform. The current constitution promotes irrational governance, incentivizes sectarian maximalism and allows neighboring states to meddle in Bosnia-Herzegovina's affairs, heightening the risk of renewed conflict. Conversely, constitutional reform could foster accountable governance, ensure equal rights for all citizens and pave a credible path for Euro-Atlantic integration by 2040. The benefits are clear: a shift from zero-sum politics to a system that values individual rights over collective ethnic identities, reduces foreign interference and empowers Bosnia-Herzegovina to stand as a sovereign, democratic state. While the Dayton Agreement brought peace, it also entrenched a governance structure that has proven to be a barrier to progress Dr. Azeem Ibrahim However, the path to reform is fraught with challenges. Political elites, entrenched in the status quo, resist change, fearing a loss of power. The Office of the High Representative, with its expansive Bonn Powers, has intervened in the past — most notably during the 2022 Bosnia-Herzegovina election — but such external impositions are not sustainable. True reform must come from within, supported by international partners like the US and the EU, which have historically expected irrational systems to yield rational outcomes. This flawed premise has led to repeated policy failures in Bosnia-Herzegovina, as our report notes, unless accompanied by sustained international pressure. 'Dayton Plus' proposes a model for limited constitutional reform that balances pragmatism with ambition. It suggests a single, non-ethnically designated president with ceremonial powers, elected through a two-round system to encourage moderate outcomes. Executive authority would shift to the Council of Ministers, with a redefined entity veto mechanism to prevent abuse. Unicameral legislatures at all levels, caucus-based vital national interest protections and electoral reforms like ranked-choice voting aim to dismantle the winner-takes-all mentality. These changes would not overhaul Bosnia-Herzegovina's structure entirely but would normalize constitutional reform as a routine democratic process, building momentum for future progress. Today, that reform is not just necessary — it is achievable. The original Dayton Agreement proved that, with political will, even the most intractable conflicts can be resolved. Today, the task of amending Bosnia-Herzegovina's constitution in line with European Court of Human Rights rulings is far less daunting than ending a war in 1995. What is needed now is the same determination, coupled with imagination, to chart a new course for Bosnia-Herzegovina. As we look to the future, the Euro-Atlantic community must recommit to Bosnia-Herzegovina's stability. The Western Balkans remains a geopolitical flashpoint, with Russia and China exploiting governance weaknesses to sow discord. Constitutional reform in Bosnia-Herzegovina is not just a domestic imperative but a strategic necessity for regional security. By supporting it in this endeavor, the US and the EU can help complete the vision of a Europe whole and free — a vision Dayton began but cannot fulfill without change. The 30th anniversary of Dayton is a moment to celebrate peace, but also to act. Bosnia-Herzegovina's citizens deserve a system that reflects their shared hopes, not their divided past. Let us work together to make that vision a reality. *Dr. Azeem Ibrahim is the director of special initiatives at the Newlines Institute for Strategy and Policy in Washington, DC. X: @AzeemIbrahim
Arab News
08-03-2025
- Arab News
Worrying echoes of the past in the Balkans
Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Hamas, trade wars between America's friends and foes — there has been no shortage of crises around the world. At times, it feels like several months' worth of geopolitical events have taken place in just the past week alone. But another potential conflict that is not getting much attention can be found in southeastern Europe in the Balkan country of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bosnia and Herzegovina emerged from the aftermath of the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, followed by a very bloody inter-religious and inter-ethnic sectarian war. The Bosnian Muslim community was targeted mainly by the ethnic Serbian community. In 1995, a historic peace deal was signed in Dayton, Ohio, known now as the Dayton Peace Agreement. This resulted in Bosnia and Herzegovina being formed by two sub-state entities. One was the ethnically Bosnian and Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the other was the ethnically Serb Republika Srpska. The current leader of the latter, Milorad Dodik, has long been an advocate for independence from the rest of Bosnia. He does this with rhetoric but also with actions. In recent years, he has taken steps to undermine the legitimate state structures and institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina and has started the process of creating parallel state institutions inside Republika Srpska. Dodik has long pursued independence for Republika Srpska and has actively worked to weaken the state institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The situation took a dramatic turn in January this year, when Dodik was sentenced to one year in prison and banned from holding public office for six years after refusing to comply with recommendations from the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt. Even though Dodik was obligated to do so under the terms of the 1995 Dayton Agreement, he refused. 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These demonstrations have expanded into a broader movement against corruption, culminating in dramatic scenes this week, when opposition MPs set off smoke bombs and flares inside the Serbian parliament. Three lawmakers were injured in the chaos. Vucic is trying to find a way to solve his own domestic political challenges, and encouraging a crisis in Republika Srpska to divert attention might be seen as a solution to his problems. There are numerous examples throughout history where geopolitical circumstances that seem to be regional or even local can have a global impact. The Balkans before the First World War is a great example. There is reason to worry that the region could serve as another flashpoint for a greater conflict, especially as relations between major global powers appear to be strained. As Russia continues to ramp up the pressure over Ukraine and apply more pressure on Europeans, it could well use its influence in Serbia and Republika Srpska to cause a diversion that Europe will have to address. If ever there was a 'European problem,' then what is happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina is certainly one. It is highly unlikely that US President Donald Trump will repeat America's response to a crisis in the region in the 1990s, when thousands of US troops were deployed as peacekeepers inside Bosnia to stop the killing, or when the US Air Force was used in 1999 to prevent genocide by Serbia against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo. The Trump White House is focused on dealing with Russia, Ukraine, China, and Iran, along with the situation at America's southern border. There will likely be little bandwidth to address the situation in southeast Europe. This week, Russia called for a closed-door UN Security Council meeting to discuss the political situation in Bosnia. It will be interesting to see how the US sides in this meeting. Will there be a repeat of the US siding with Russia at the recent UN General Assembly vote over Ukraine, or will the US stick to its more traditional position of supporting the Dayton Peace Agreement and the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina? Russia may even try to use this issue as a bargaining chip in the bigger issue of peace negotiations over Ukraine. With Europe focused on what it will do about Ukraine in the event that there is a ceasefire, there is likely to be little capacity for any meaningful European response if war breaks out in the Balkans. While events in the Balkans may not be on the minds of Europeans, events in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region are certainly on the minds of the local leaders. Therefore, it would be incumbent on American and European policymakers not to ignore the region and to stay committed to the hard-fought peace won in the 1990s. Even with everything going on around the world, from Eastern Europe to the Middle East to East Asia, policymakers must keep a close eye on the Balkans. The international community must remain vigilant and committed to preventing the kind of instability that led to war in the 1990s. As history has shown, tensions in the Balkans have the potential to ignite wider conflicts if left unchecked. • Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey
Asharq Al-Awsat
18-12-2024
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What Has Assad's Fall Revealed about the Captagon Drug Trade in Syria?
Since the fall of former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, industrial-scale manufacturing facilities of Captagon have been uncovered around the country, which experts say helped flourish a $10 billion annual global trade in the highly addictive drug. Among the locations used for manufacturing the drug were the Mazzeh air base in Damascus, a car-trading company in Latakia and a former potato chips factory on the outskirts of Damascus. The factory that once produced the crunchy snack in the suburb of Douma under the name, Captain Corn, was seized by government forces in 2018. "Assad's collaborators controlled this place. After the regime fell... I came here and found it on fire," Firas al-Toot, the original owner of the factory, told The Associated Press. "They came at night and lit the drugs on fire but couldn't burn everything." "From here, Captagon pills emerged to kill our people," said Abu Zihab, an activist with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, the main group now ruling the country, as his group gave access to journalists to the site. Syria's nearly 14-year-old civil war fragmented the country, crumbled the economy and created fertile ground for the production of the drug. Militias, warlords and the Assad government transformed Captagon from a small-scale operation run by small criminal groups into a billion-dollar industrial revenue stream. The recent ousting of Assad has disrupted these networks and has given a closer look at its operations — revealing the workings of a war economy that sustained Assad's power over Syria. Experts say the change in Syria might create an opportunity to dismantle the Captagon industry. How did Syria build its Captagon empire? Captagon was first developed in Germany in the 1960s as a prescription stimulant for conditions like narcolepsy. It was later outlawed due to heart issues and its addictive properties. Its amphetamine-like effects made it popular in the Middle East among both elites and fighters, as it enhanced focus and reduced fatigue. Assad's government recognized an opportunity in the cheaply manufactured drug amid Syria's economic turmoil and the heavy sanctions imposed on it. Captagon is produced through a simple chemical process that involves mixing amphetamine derivatives with excipients to form tablets, typically in makeshift labs. The Captagon trade began industrializing around 2018-2019 as the Assad regime — and other armed groups in Syria -- invested in production facilities, warehouses and trafficking networks. This allowed Syria to emerge as the largest producer of Captagon globally, with some production also occurring in Lebanon. Most seized consignments of Captagon originated from Syria, according to data by the New Lines Captagon Trade Project, an initiative of the New Lines Institute think tank. Evidence of the Assad regime's sponsorship of the Captagon industry is overwhelming, the report published in May said. The Security Office of the 4th Armored Division of the Syrian Arab Army, headed by Bashar al-Assad's brother Maher oversaw operations and created a coordinated production system, the report added. Where and how was Captagon smuggled? Captagon was smuggled across the border using various methods, hiding Captagon in trucks, cargo shipments and goods. Some shipments are concealed in food, electronics and construction materials to evade detection. The primary smuggling routes were Syria's porous borders with Lebanon, Jordan and Iraq, from which the drug is distributed throughout the region. Some were also shipped from Latakia port. In Lebanon, the Captagon trade has flourished, particularly near the Syrian border and in the Bekaa Valley. Lebanese authorities struggled to curb the flow of Captagon from Syria, which analysts say was facilitated by the Hezbollah group, a key Assad ally. Following the discovery of crates of fruit meticulously packed with bundles of the drug hidden among pomegranates and oranges, Saudi Arabia and the UAE implemented bans on Lebanese agricultural products. Captagon has also found its way into international markets, reaching as far as Southeast Asia and parts of Europe. How much revenue did it produce for the Assad regime? The annual global trade in Captagon has an estimated value of $10 billion, with the ousted Assad family's annual profit reaching around $2.4 billion, according to Caroline Rose, director of the New York-based New Lines Institute Captagon Trade Project. "Seeing the uncovering of so many industrial-scale facilities affiliated with the regime was shocking but not surprising. There was extensive evidence linking key regime-aligned cronies and Assad family members to the trade," said Rose, whose organization tracks all publicly recorded Captagon seizures and lab raids. The discovery of the facilities, she said, confirmed "the concrete relationship between Captagon and the former regime." The exact number of factories in Syria remains unclear, but experts and HTS members estimate that there are likely hundreds spread throughout the country. The future of Captagon in post-Assad Syria Assad has turned Syria into "the largest Captagon factory in the world," HTS leader Ahmad al-Sharaa stated in a victory speech at Damascus's Umayyad Mosque on Dec. 8. "Today, Syria is being cleansed, thanks to the grace of Almighty God." While Assad and his circle may have been the primary beneficiaries, there is also evidence that Syrian opposition groups were involved in drug smuggling, opposition groups, local militias and organized crime networks manufactured and smuggled the drug to finance their operations, analysts say. "Likely, we will see a short-term supply reduction in the trade, with a decline in the size and frequency of seizures as industrial-scale production is largely halted. However, criminal actors are innovative, likely seeking out new locations to engage in production and smuggling, particularly as demand levels remain stable," Rose said. They may also "seek out alternative illicit trades to engage in instead," she said. In addition to dismantling the Captagon trade, the country's transitional government should "establish programs for economic development that will incentivize Syrians to participate in the country's formal, licit economic sphere," Rose said.
