Worrying echoes of the past in the Balkans
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Russia and Ukraine, Israel and Hamas, trade wars between America's friends and foes — there has been no shortage of crises around the world. At times, it feels like several months' worth of geopolitical events have taken place in just the past week alone.
But another potential conflict that is not getting much attention can be found in southeastern Europe in the Balkan country of Bosnia and Herzegovina. Bosnia and Herzegovina emerged from the aftermath of the breakup of Yugoslavia in the 1990s, followed by a very bloody inter-religious and inter-ethnic sectarian war. The Bosnian Muslim community was targeted mainly by the ethnic Serbian community. In 1995, a historic peace deal was signed in Dayton, Ohio, known now as the Dayton Peace Agreement.
This resulted in Bosnia and Herzegovina being formed by two sub-state entities. One was the ethnically Bosnian and Croat Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina, and the other was the ethnically Serb Republika Srpska. The current leader of the latter, Milorad Dodik, has long been an advocate for independence from the rest of Bosnia. He does this with rhetoric but also with actions. In recent years, he has taken steps to undermine the legitimate state structures and institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina and has started the process of creating parallel state institutions inside Republika Srpska.
Dodik has long pursued independence for Republika Srpska and has actively worked to weaken the state institutions of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The situation took a dramatic turn in January this year, when Dodik was sentenced to one year in prison and banned from holding public office for six years after refusing to comply with recommendations from the High Representative for Bosnia and Herzegovina, Christian Schmidt. Even though Dodik was obligated to do so under the terms of the 1995 Dayton Agreement, he refused. If this was not enough to start a political crisis in Bosnia, this week Dodik signed into law legislation from the Republika Srpska parliament that banned Bosnia and Herzegovina's police force and judiciary from operating inside Republika Srpska. This was viewed by many as an affront not only to Bosnia's sovereignty but also to the Dayton Agreement, which has been the key factor in keeping the country at peace and together. Along the way, he is encouraged by his neighbor, Serbia, and also, by extension, Russia.
The situation in Bosnia is made worse by developments in neighboring Serbia.
Luke Coffey
The situation in Bosnia is made worse by developments in neighboring Serbia. Serbian President Aleksandar Vucic, who has a close and supportive relationship with Dodik, is experiencing his own political difficulties. Since November 2024, when a roof at a train station collapsed, killing 15 people, he has faced mounting anti-government street protests. These demonstrations have expanded into a broader movement against corruption, culminating in dramatic scenes this week, when opposition MPs set off smoke bombs and flares inside the Serbian parliament. Three lawmakers were injured in the chaos. Vucic is trying to find a way to solve his own domestic political challenges, and encouraging a crisis in Republika Srpska to divert attention might be seen as a solution to his problems.
There are numerous examples throughout history where geopolitical circumstances that seem to be regional or even local can have a global impact. The Balkans before the First World War is a great example. There is reason to worry that the region could serve as another flashpoint for a greater conflict, especially as relations between major global powers appear to be strained. As Russia continues to ramp up the pressure over Ukraine and apply more pressure on Europeans, it could well use its influence in Serbia and Republika Srpska to cause a diversion that Europe will have to address. If ever there was a 'European problem,' then what is happening in Bosnia and Herzegovina is certainly one. It is highly unlikely that US President Donald Trump will repeat America's response to a crisis in the region in the 1990s, when thousands of US troops were deployed as peacekeepers inside Bosnia to stop the killing, or when the US Air Force was used in 1999 to prevent genocide by Serbia against ethnic Albanians in Kosovo.
The Trump White House is focused on dealing with Russia, Ukraine, China, and Iran, along with the situation at America's southern border. There will likely be little bandwidth to address the situation in southeast Europe. This week, Russia called for a closed-door UN Security Council meeting to discuss the political situation in Bosnia. It will be interesting to see how the US sides in this meeting. Will there be a repeat of the US siding with Russia at the recent UN General Assembly vote over Ukraine, or will the US stick to its more traditional position of supporting the Dayton Peace Agreement and the territorial integrity and sovereignty of Bosnia and Herzegovina? Russia may even try to use this issue as a bargaining chip in the bigger issue of peace negotiations over Ukraine.
With Europe focused on what it will do about Ukraine in the event that there is a ceasefire, there is likely to be little capacity for any meaningful European response if war breaks out in the Balkans. While events in the Balkans may not be on the minds of Europeans, events in Bosnia and Herzegovina and the region are certainly on the minds of the local leaders. Therefore, it would be incumbent on American and European policymakers not to ignore the region and to stay committed to the hard-fought peace won in the 1990s.
Even with everything going on around the world, from Eastern Europe to the Middle East to East Asia, policymakers must keep a close eye on the Balkans. The international community must remain vigilant and committed to preventing the kind of instability that led to war in the 1990s. As history has shown, tensions in the Balkans have the potential to ignite wider conflicts if left unchecked.
• Luke Coffey is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute. X: @LukeDCoffey
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