How did the Israel-Iran conflict escalate? A look from history to its impact

UPSC Issue at a Glance is an initiative by UPSC Essentials aimed at streamlining your preparation for the prelims and mains examinations by focusing on current issues making headlines. Every Thursday, cover a new topic in a lucid way. This week, we explain to you the Israel-Iran conflict through its history, recent escalation, and potential impact. Let's get started.
If you missed the previous UPSC Issue at a Glance | RBI Explained – History, tools of monetary policy, and surplus transfer from the Indian Express, read it here.
Thursday (June 19) marks the seventh day of Israel's offensive, which has targeted key nuclear and military sites like Natanz and Isfahan, killing top generals and scientists. Notably, on June 13, Israel launched airstrikes towards Iran, targeting multiple nuclear and military facilities, and killing several senior military officers and scientists under what Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu called 'Operation Rising Lion'.
Later, Iran launched waves of ballistic missiles towards Israel in retaliation. The Israeli offensive not only jeopardised the Iran nuclear talks but also heightened fears of a wider regional conflagration with serious implications. The latest flare-up in the Israel-Iran conflict could have serious consequences for the region and beyond. In this week's UPSC Issue at a Glance, we unpack this issue by tracing the history of Israel-Iran relations, the causes of recent escalation and the potential implications.
(Relevance: UPSC Syllabus General Studies-II: International Relations, Effect of policies and politics of developed and developing countries on India's interests.
FYI: UPSC has previously asked questions on various regional connectivity projects; for instance, a question was asked on INSTC in prelims this year, and in prelims 2017, a question was asked on Chabahar port (do check it in the post-read questions); thus, it becomes essential to know about these projects.)
Given the current state of conflict between Israel and Iran, people may easily overlook the years of cooperative relations between these two nations. Thus, knowing about the historical ties between Iran and Israel becomes essential.
(i) Pre-1979 Iran-Israel ties: In 1948, the opposition of Arab states to Israel led to the first Arab-Israeli war. Iran was not a part of that conflict, and after Israel won, it established ties with the Jewish state. It was the second Muslim-majority country to do so after Turkey. In this phase of bilateral ties, as an analysis from the Brookings Institute ('Iran's revolution, 40 years on: Israel's reverse periphery doctrine') notes, Israel tried to counter the hostility of Arab states at the time with the 'periphery doctrine' under its first Prime Minister David Ben Gurion.
The Pahlavi dynasty, under the Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi, ruled Iran then. It had US support, as did Israel, and the two countries maintained ties with each other, with Iran also selling oil to Israel amid its economic boycott by Arab states.
(ii) The 1979 Revolution: In this phase, a religious state was established in Iran after the Shah was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic Revolution. The regime's view of Israel changed, and it was seen as an occupier of Palestinian land. Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khomeini termed Israel 'Little Satan' and the United States the 'Great Satan', seeing the two as parties interfering in the region. Iran also sought to grow its presence in the region, challenging the two major powers Saudi Arabia and Israel – both of whom were US allies.
(iii) Shadow War after 1979: After 1979, the ties between the countries worsened. While Israel and Iran have never engaged in direct military confrontation, both attempted to inflict damage on the other through proxies and limited strategic attacks. Israel has attacked Iranian nuclear facilities from time to time.
In the early 2010s, it targeted several facilities and nuclear scientists in a bid to prevent it from developing nuclear weapons. In 2010, the US and Israel are believed to have developed Stuxnet, a malicious computer virus. Used to attack a uranium enrichment facility at Iran's Natanz nuclear site, it was the 'first publicly known cyberattack on industrial machinery', according to Reuters.
According to Explained article on short history of Iran-Israel ties, 'Iran, meanwhile, is seen as responsible for funding and supporting several militant groups in the region that are anti-Israel and anti-US, such as Hezbollah in Lebanon and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.'
Iran and Israel have shared a long history of antagonism, starting post the 1979 revolution in Iran which removed the West-friendly Shah from power. Today, Iran does not recognise Israel's right to exist. On the other hand, Israel's controversial Begin doctrine has been a source of significant conflict – diplomatic and otherwise – between the two nations. The two countries have been engaged in multiple proxy conflicts, and actually came face to face during the 2006 Lebanon War.
Over the years, the ties devolved with little trust on either side. Iran's support for Hamas and other Iran-backed regional actors, such as Hezbollah, especially after October 7, 2023, has drawn Israel's ire. Last year, the Israel-Iran relations worsened more when for the first time Iran launched a direct attack aimed at targets within Israel.
Iran-Israel bilateral ties hit new lows when, on June 13 this year, Israel launched 'Operation Rising Lion' against Iran. Several factors have contributed to the recent escalation in the Israel-Iran conflict. Let's take a closer look.
1. 'Nuclear threat' to Israel: Prime Minister of Israel, Benjamin Netanyahu framed the biggest attack on Iran in decades as an attempt to remove the 'nuclear threat' to Israel. Addressing the people of Iran in a video message, he said the time had come for them to stand up for their freedom from an 'evil and oppressive regime', which has 'never been weaker'.
Further explaining Israel's 'pre-emptive strikes', Netanyahu said Iran had 'taken steps that it has never taken before… to weaponise enriched uranium,' and 'if not stopped, Iran could produce a nuclear weapon in a very short time,' perhaps even 'within a few months.'
Notably, the great strategic concern in Israel is Iran possessing nuclear weapons, and to that end, it has previously launched attacks on scientists (although more targeted and tactical ones). Iran says it is not looking to develop weapons, and has simply invested in nuclear power over the decades.
2. IAEA's Board of Governors censured Iran: Friday's attacks came one day after the International Atomic Energy Agency's (IAEA) Board of Governors censured Iran for the first time in 20 years for not working with its inspectors. On Thursday ( June 12) IAEA passed a resolution declaring Iran as being non-compliant with its non-proliferation obligations. The resolution came on the back of a recent IAEA investigation that found Iran was conducting 'secret nuclear activities' at three locations.
The Israel-Iran conflict triggered serious concern among major stakeholders in the region, including India. Some of the potential implications of escalated Iran-Israel conflict are:
1. Fears of surging oil prices: Just as global shipping lines and traders had started to breathe a sigh of relief from elevated freight rates, with vessels returning to the crucial Red Sea route from the longer Cape of Good Hope passage, a conflict between two major West Asian powers — Iran and Israel — has reignited fears of surging oil prices and more trade disruptions.
Since the war began on June 13, global Brent crude prices have risen by around 11 per cent — from levels of $67.34 per barrel on June 12 to around $74.6 per barrel on Tuesday. This is a significant spike — and several global financial firms are projecting that oil could cross $100 per barrel in case the crisis continues and worsens.
2. Risk of wider energy disruption: Experts warn that Iran may respond by closing the strategic Strait of Hormuz — a key passage through which 20–25 per cent of global oil supply transits, as well as a critical corridor for LNG shipments from Qatar and the UAE. Qatar, notably, is among the top LNG suppliers to India.
Ravi Dutta Mishra of The Indian Express explains, 'S&P Global noted that, so far, both Iran and Israel have avoided directly targeting energy infrastructure. However, Israel has temporarily shut its Leviathan gas field — a key supplier to Egypt and Jordan — as a precaution. Iran, meanwhile, reported no damage to its oil refineries or storage depots in the initial attacks.
Iran possesses approximately 2.2 million b/d of crude refining capacity and an additional 600,000 b/d of condensate splitter capacity. In May, it produced about 4 million b/d of crude and condensate. According to S&P Global, Iran's crude exports could fall below 1.5 million b/d this month.'
3. Rising freight rates: With the escalation in Iran-Israel conflict, there is possibility that freight rates will increase. As Ravi Dutta Mishra of The Indian Express explains, 'Now, with traders' worst fears materialising, vessels may be forced to continue using the Cape of Good Hope route. This detour means sustained upward pressure on freight rates. The Red Sea crisis had already caused a spike in shipping costs due to voyage duration increasing by 10–14 days. Longer voyages also tightened vessel availability, exerting inflationary pressure on freight rates.'
Beyond the above-written potential implications, there is a possibility that global governance would also be impacted by continuing instability in the Middle East.
The Israel-Iran conflict triggered serious concern among major stakeholders in the region, including India. Indian Ministry of External Affairs spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal on Friday urged both Israel and Iran 'to avoid any escalatory steps,' saying India has 'close and friendly' relations with the two nations.
Nonetheless, escalated Israel-Iran conflict puts India's regional connectivity strategy like the International North South Transport Corridor, and the Chabahar port at risk.
Notably, The International North South Transport Corridor (INSTC), which was initiated by Russia, India, and Iran, is a multi-modal transportation project linking the Indian Ocean and Persian Gulf to the Caspian Sea via Iran, and onward to northern Europe via St Petersburg in Russia. This corridor aims to reduce transit times to about 25 days — 20 days fewer than the Suez Canal route — and cut freight costs by 30 per cent.
The INSTC envisages the movement of goods from Mumbai to Bandar Abbas in Iran by sea; from Bandar Abbas to Bandar-e-Anzali, an Iranian port on the Caspian Sea, by road; from Bandar-e-Anzali to Astrakhan, a Caspian port in the Russian Federation by ship across the Caspian Sea; and onward to other parts of the Russian Federation and Europe by rail.
Chabahar is a deep water port in Iran's Sistan-Baluchistan province. It is the Iranian port that is the closest to India, and is located in the open sea, providing easy and secure access for large cargo ships. The port is also part of the proposed INSTC. Chabahar is of strategic importance for India. It offers New Delhi an alternative route that bypasses Pakistan, which does not allow India land access for trade with Afghanistan and Central Asia.
Beyond, regional connectivity projects, trade and commerce, energy imports, and Indian expatriates are other vital concerns for New Delhi. It also presents Inflation risk in India. As Ravi Dutta Mishra of The Indian Express explains, 'The renewed instability could pose deeper macroeconomic challenges for India, extending beyond trade, particularly as the country's reliance on oil imports continues to rise. While India was compelled to halt oil imports from Iran following US sanctions in 2019, Goldman Sachs estimates that Iranian supply could fall by 1.75 million barrels per day (b/d) for six months before gradually recovering.'
Furthermore, a deepening Israel-Iran conflict might affect India's successful balancing of ties with Israel, Iran and the Gulf Arab states for the past decade.
Prelims
(1) To which country is the Pahlavi dynasty related?
(a) Israel
(b) Iran
(c) Yemen
(d) Palestine
(2) The term 'two-state solution' is sometimes mentioned in the news in the context of the affairs of (UPSC CSE 2018)
(a) China
(b) Israel
(c) Iraq
(d) Yemen
(3) What is the importance of developing Chabahar Port by India? ( UPSC CSE 2017)
(a) India's trade with African countries will increase enormously.
(b) India's relations with oil-producing Arab countries will be strengthened.
(c) India will not depend on Pakistan for access to Afghanistan and Central Asia.
(d) Pakistan will facilitate and protect the installation of a gas pipeline between Iraq and India.
(4) India is one of the founding members of the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC), a multimodal transportation corridor, which will connect: (UPSC CSE 2025)
(a) India to Central Asia to Europe via Iran
(b) India to Central Asia via China
(c) India to South-East Asia through Bangladesh and Myanmar
(d) India to Europe through Azerbaijan
Mains
'India's relations with Israel have, of late, acquired a depth and diversity, which cannot be rolled back.' Discuss. (UPSC CSE 2018)
(Sources: Explained: A short history of Iran-Israel ties and why they soured after 1979, Iran blames Israel for Isfahan drone attack, Explained: What's happening in the latest Iran-Israel flare-up, in 5 points, Why the Iran-Israel war has not hit Indian markets, Trade to inflation, how Iran-Israel conflict may affect India, markets)
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Roshni Yadav is a Deputy Copy Editor with The Indian Express. She is an alumna of the University of Delhi and Jawaharlal Nehru University, where she pursued her graduation and post-graduation in Political Science. She has over five years of work experience in ed-tech and media. At The Indian Express, she writes for the UPSC section. Her interests lie in national and international affairs, governance, economy, and social issues. You can contact her via email: roshni.yadav@indianexpress.com ... Read More

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