Israeli Strikes Shake Foundation of Iran's Theocratic Rule
Iran's embattled leaders have found themselves in an existential struggle domestically to protect nearly a half-century of rule, as Israel pounds the military, government and population.
The U.S. and Israel have made it clear that even Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, could be a target. 'We know exactly where the so-called 'Supreme Leader' is hiding,' President Trump posted on social media. 'He is an easy target, but is safe there—We are not going to take him out (kill!), at least not for now.'
Israel's attacks have demonstrated how thoroughly its intelligence agency, Mossad, has penetrated Iran. Israel killed the region's top military commanders and nuclear scientists, bombed oil-and-energy infrastructure and well as Iran's state broadcaster, and sent tens of thousands fleeing from Tehran.
'What the last four days has done is create a real rupture in the social contract that has existed at least for the last two decades,' said Ellie Geranmayeh, an Iran expert at the European Council on Foreign Relations. That contract, between the regime and its people, 'has been anchored on this promise of security from the state in return for severely restricted political, social and increasingly economic rights.'
Iran has already had to replace at least six top military commanders killed by Israel since Friday. Its powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which oversees the nation's security, has gone into damage-control mode.
Following intelligence failures that allowed Israel to kill military commanders and scientists inside their homes with ease, the Revolutionary Guard has gone on a propaganda offensive. State media outlets have published story after story about the IRGC finding cells working for Mossad, often without offering evidence.
On Wednesday, the IRGC said several Israeli 'agents and mercenaries' were arrested in central Iran. It urged residents to 'be vigilant regarding the movements of neighbors who have recently settled in the area.'
An Israeli military official said these reports were fake and part of misinformation the Iranians are spreading 'in efforts to create the appearance of success.' The Israeli prime minister's office didn't immediately respond to requests for comment.
'The political, military, security establishment is trying to regain control of that narrative and that social contract to say we can protect you,' said Geranmayeh. 'It's a real challenge to repair. That social contract is now the biggest challenge for them internally.'
In a televised message on Wednesday, Khamenei vowed to resist Israel and denounced Trump's 'threatening and vulgar' remarks, saying they 'have no effect on the Iranian people's thoughts or actions.'
'The United States must know that our people will not surrender, and any military intervention by them will lead to irreparable consequences,' Khamenei said.
The theocracy was already under pressure before the war erupted. Israel's military has battered its allied militias, Lebanon's Hezbollah and Gaza's Hamas. Syria's Bashar al-Assad, a close ally of Tehran, was toppled in December. Israel killed a top Hamas leader while he was visiting Tehran last year and several Iranian commanders in the region.
Meanwhile, ordinary Iranians were reeling from economic sanctions. Before Friday's strikes, Iran was under pressure to clinch a deal to end U.S. sanctions in exchange for curbs on its nuclear program. The value of the country's currency has plummeted since November. And Iran's gross domestic product had fallen 45% since 2012.
Before the war, protests were becoming more frequent in response to the economic strains. Nurses and telecommunications workers protested delayed payments. Retired teachers demonstrated in front of parliament over delays in welfare payments. Shoemakers and other merchants in Tehran's main bazaar staged a rare strike in December over high inflation.
Israel's strikes in recent days have amplified the pressure dramatically. The value of the Iranian currency has lost 13%. Israel's strikes on natural-gas plants along the Persian Gulf and an oil depot and refinery in Tehran may worsen an energy crisis. It has forced schools, cement factories and pharmaceutical plants to shut down.
'The Islamic Republic is, in essence, losing control of what is going on inside Iran, on at least the symbolic level,' said Rasmus Christian Elling, associate professor of Iranian studies at the University of Copenhagen. 'The open question is whether there are enough people still actively participating to meet these challenges and actually do their job. In many ways, the Islamic Republic is helpless right now.'
Some dissident groups based in the U.S. and Europe have supported Israel's strikes and called for regime change, while other Iranian activists have called for the regime to give up uranium enrichment. But some groups have expressed nationalist sentiments and denounced Israel's attacks.
To be sure, there have been no visible signs of dissent inside Iran so far. The government has restricted access to the internet and warned against publishing social-media posts considered supportive of Israel. Five people were arrested in the central city of Yazd on Sunday for 'attempting to disturb public opinion' by sending postings online, according to semiofficial news agency ISNA.
Besides, most Iranians at the moment are too busy trying to escape Israel's airstrikes, analysts said. 'This should be quite a strong indicator to President Trump that if you are bombing a nation from the outside, it's going to be very hard for them to organize on the inside for a political opposition or a transition,' said Geranmayeh.
Iran's reformist president, Masoud Pezeshkian, is also weakened. His policy to open up to the West to get sanctions relief failed. That is giving Iran's hard-liners the upper hand, though they are now compromised as well for not protecting Iran from Israel's strikes.
'The system is under immense strain since neither reform nor force is working,' said Mostafa Pakzad, chairman of Pakzad Consulting, who advises foreign companies on Iranian geopolitics and isn't currently in the country. 'The June 13 Israeli strikes and the death of IRGC leaders have shattered the illusion of strategic control. With no reformist credibility and declining coercive legitimacy, the regime is losing both of its traditional legs.'
Some Iranian officials are worried the country could simply fracture along ethnic lines, say Iranian and Arab diplomats. Iran is populated with Arab, Azeri and Kurdish minorities to the west and Baluch to the east, all of which have separatist aspirations.
In some ways, decisions taken by Khamenei have returned to haunt him. The architect behind Iran's military expansion in the Middle East, he and his senior advisers underestimated Israel's desire to confront them. As early as February, Khamenei was made aware of a plan for massive Israeli airstrikes, but when Israel attacked last week, he and his advisers were caught off guard.
Khamenei's death would trigger more uncertainty in Iran. The death in a helicopter crash last year of his presumed successor, Ebrahim Raisi, has left the theocracy with no transparent plans for succession, though Khamenei's son is considered a contender. One scenario is that Khamenei's death would lead to military rule in Iran led by hard-liners favoring a nuclear weapon to deter Israel.
'If Khamenei were to die for one reason or another in the middle of this war, in order to prevent a vacuum, the Revolutionary Guard and all the regular military would step in and take control of the situation,' said Elling. 'There is no clear religious leader waiting in the corridors that will have popular support and also religious legitimacy.'
Write to Sudarsan Raghavan at sudarsan.raghavan@wsj.com and Benoit Faucon at benoit.faucon@wsj.com
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