Gold Slips Despite Rising Global Tensions
Happy Friday, traders. Welcome to our weekly market wrap, where we take a look back at these last five trading days with a focus on the market news, economic data, and headlines that had the most impact on gold prices and other key correlated assets— and may continue to in the future.
Gold prices have slipped throughout the last five trading days, positioning the yellow metal for its first weekly loss in nearly a month.
Gold posted its first weekly loss in nearly a month, despite rising geopolitical risks.
The Fed held rates steady but signaled two cuts are still expected this year.
Retail Sales data came in soft, and equities struggled across the board.
A stronger US Dollar may be capping gold's rally amid global uncertainty.
Since tracking back below $3400/oz shortly after the Sunday night opens, gold's trading path this week has been steadily, but not rapidly, down and to the right. A loss week-over-week in gold spot prices (the first in three) is not what we would have expected given the geopolitical developments of recent days, but it's very much the story of this week, so let's talk about it.
Without wanting to be at all sensationalist, it is possible that the world is slipping towards another, much larger and much more volatile escalation of war in the Middle East with the direct participation of the United States. There are few other events—if when they're only 'possible'—that should have a more direct risk-off impact on global markets, pushing investors into the prime safe havens like gold. And yet, the yellow metal has steadily fallen back this week. Eventually, gold discovered support in the neighborhood of $3370, although Friday's Asian sessions did see the metal dip briefly as low as $3345.
On Wednesday, the FOMC announced (as expected) no changes to monetary policy following their June meeting but reiterated that the committee still expects to make two cuts this year. This probably nets out as neutral for gold (lower rates not yet, but still planned), but if you had to tip the hand one way or the other, you might expect prices to step slightly higher.
At the same time, the quarterly update to the Fed's economic projections indicates the central bankers now expect weaker growth in the US economy in the near-to-medium term. This, too, should be a basic risk-off signal and would be reasonable to expect as a tailwind for gold.
There have been other, softer data points this week that we would have projected to make traders more risk-averse, to the benefit of the gold prices. Monday's Retail Sales data came in below already-muted expectations, and all three major US stock indexes have struggled this week, primarily under the clouds of war. Still, gold spot is all but certain to close out this week in the red.
There are two possible reasons for this at the top of our minds currently. To be sure, the US Dollar has enjoyed greater safe-haven interest from traders and investors this week, and aside from that dynamic, just the fact of an appreciating Dollar typically pushes down on gold.
But what may also be a factor here, after nearly two full quarters of record-breaking gains, is that the 2025 gold rally has fully extended itself, and even the threat of the globe's only remaining 20th Century superpower entering a war isn't adding enough gas to the conflagration to move spot prices towards $3500.
For now, the absent upward momentum is not being translated to downward pressure, but if gold doesn't find new legs soon, we may see a more aggressive pace of liquidations as investors sell off richer positions in gold to balance out losses on equities and elsewhere if the global state of play remains on high alert or deteriorates further.
In the meantime, traders, I hope you can get out and safely enjoy your weekend for the next couple of days. After that, I'll see you back here next week for another market recap.
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