Above-average hurricane season, US landfall chances in CSU forecast
The first hurricane forecast of the year from the experts at Colorado State University released Thursday calls for an above-average season with nine hurricanes and a better than 50% chance a major hurricane will strike the U.S.
The CSU seasonal forecasts were originated by the late William Gray in 1984, but continue out of the school's Department of Atmospheric Science, and are considered in meteorological circles as among the most accurate in predicting tropical activity.
For 2025, forecasters point to warmer than normal waters in the eastern subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean has harbingers of another active season similar to 2024.
Also feeding a potentially busy hurricane season is the low chance of El Niño conditions in the equatorial Pacific by the height of hurricane season from mid-August to October, which translates to less chance of wind shear in the Atlantic. No wind shear means greater chance storms won't lose steam as they plow toward targets in the Caribbean, Gulf Coast and U.S. East Coast.
For those reasons, CSU forecasters expect 17 named storms, of which nine will become hurricanes. Of those, four are predicted to reach major hurricane strength.
That's slightly lower than what 2024 saw with 18 named storms, 11 of which became hurricanes, with five of those becoming major storms of Category 3 strength or stronger.
Those included hurricanes Debby, Helene and Milton, all of which struck Florida's Gulf Coast. Helene and Milton combined to cause more than 250 fatalities and more than $120 billion dollars in damage in the U.S.
The 30-year average from 1991-2020 saw 14.4 named storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 major hurricanes.
The report also predicted landfall probabilities. It called for a 51% chance a major hurricane will strike the U.S. coastline noting the average from 1880-2020 is 43%.
The chances a major hurricane will hit the U.S. East Coast including the Florida peninsula is 26%. The chances it would hit the U.S. Gulf Coast from the Florida panhandle to the Texas-Mexico border is 33%. The chances one would hit the Caribbean is 56%.
'It takes only one storm near you to make this an active season for you,' said coauthor of the forecast Michael Bell.
Phil Klotzbach, a senior research scientist and lead author of CSU's forecast said the year looks similar to what he calls 'analog seasons' seen in 1996, 1999, 2006, 2008, 2011 and 2017.
'Our analog seasons ranged from having slightly below-average Atlantic hurricane activity to being hyperactive,' said Klotzbach. 'While the average of our analog seasons was above normal, the large spread in observed activity in our analog years highlights the high levels of uncertainty that typically are associated with our early April outlook.'
The forecasts follows predictions released last month by AccuWeather that predicted up to six systems to impact the U.S. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration won't release its season prediction until May.
CSU will update its forecast on June 11, July 9 and Aug. 6.
The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
CBS News
8 hours ago
- CBS News
Colorado weather driving surge in mosquitoes, but other insects need help
As Summer heats up, the bugs are out in Colorado As Summer heats up, the bugs are out in Colorado As Summer heats up, the bugs are out in Colorado Bug season in Colorado is off to a strong start thanks to the heat and recent rain across much of the state. There are some to watch out for and others that need our help. From grasshoppers devouring gardens to mosquitoes multiplying after rainstorms, insect activity across Colorado is on the rise, and weather is driving the surge. CBS "Some insects thrive in dry, hot weather, like our grasshoppers," said Lisa Mason, Horticulture Specialist and Entomologist at Colorado State University's Arapahoe County extension. "But Miller moths, on the other hand, prefer cooler temperatures." Expect more grasshoppers on the eastern plains. Miller moths are passing through quickly, heading into the mountains to escape the heat. Recent rains also mean mosquitoes, and lots of them. "Our partners in Arapahoe County Public Health have actually seen double, and in some cases triple, the number of mosquitoes," said Mason. CBS To keep bites at bay, Mason recommended dumping standing water, wearing long sleeves at dawn and dust and using repellent with DEET. Japanese beetles are also thriving in lawns and gardens. Mason said drying out your lawn between waterings can stop them before they start. "The adults thrive in hot weather," explained Mason. "In fact, that makes them just want to feed more. So we're likely to see high numbers of Japanese beetles again." CBS But while pests are booming, bees are in decline. Coloradans can help by planting native pollinator-friendly flowers like aspen daisies and prairie sunflowers. "The cool things about insects is we have so much biodiversity, and most of our biodiversity is in our landscapes and we barely even notice. So, go outside and observe," Mason suggested. Bug season is buzzing, but knowing what to expect helps you protect your yard, your health and the helpful insects too.
Hamilton Spectator
a day ago
- Hamilton Spectator
Flooding and rock slides close heavily damaged I-40 section in Smoky Mountains
HARTFORD, Tenn. (AP) — Heavy rain, flooding and a rock slide have again closed a section of the major cross country highway Interstate 40 along its narrow corridor through the Great Smoky Mountains. The slide and flood happened Wednesday afternoon around mile marker 450 in Tennessee, just to the west of the state line with North Carolina, the Tennessee Department of Transportation said on social media. Crews continued to work Thursday to get the water and rock off the highway and had not released when they think the road could be reopened, the DOT said. Engineers have found significant damage on both the highway and nearby ramps which was more extensive than originally thought, Republican Tennessee Rep. Jeremy Faison said on social media. 'Several areas remain under water, and there are potentially compromised slopes. Geotechnical engineers are on-site today to assess the stability of those slopes,' wrote Faison, who represents the area. The damaged section is part of 12 miles (19 kilometers) of I-40 in North Carolina and Tennessee that was washed away or heavily damaged by flooding that roared through the Pigeon River gorge during Hurricane Helene in late September. Crews repaired and shored up enough of the old highway to open one narrow lane in each direction in March. The lanes are separated by a curb several inches high that had to be removed to let vehicles stuck by the flooding and rockslide to turn around and go the other way. About 2.5 to 3.5 inches (63 mm to 89 mm) of rain fell in the area over about three hours, according to the National Weather Service. The permanent fix to stabilize what's left of the road will involve driving long steel rods into bedrock below the road, filling them with grout and spraying concrete on the cliff face to hold them in place. It will take years. I-40 runs from Wilmington. North Carolina to Barstow, California, and any detour around the Great Smoky Mountain section is dozens of miles. Trucks have gotten stuck on twisty narrow mountain roads and are banned on another major highway through the area U.S. 441 through Great Smoky Mountains National Park.
2 days ago
Flooding and rock slides close heavily damaged I-40 section in Smoky Mountains
HARTFORD, Tenn. -- Heavy rain, flooding and a rock slide have again closed a section of the major cross country highway Interstate 40 along its narrow corridor through the Great Smoky Mountains. The slide and flood happened Wednesday afternoon around mile marker 450 in Tennessee, just to the west of the state line with North Carolina, the Tennessee Department of Transportation said on social media. Crews continued to work Thursday to get the water and rock off the highway and had not released when they think the road could be reopened, the DOT said. The flooded section is part of 12 miles (19 kilometers) of I-40 in North Carolina and Tennessee that was washed away or heavily damaged by flooding that roared through the Pigeon River gorge during Hurricane Helene in late September. Crews repaired and shored up enough of the old highway to open one narrow lane in each direction in March. The lanes are separated by a curb several inches high that had to be removed to let vehicles stuck by the flooding and rockslide to turn around and go the other way. About 2.5 to 3.5 inches (63 mm to 89 mm) of rain fell in the area over about three hours, according to the National Weather Service. The permanent fix to stabilize what's left of the road will involve driving long steel rods into bedrock below the road, filling them with grout and spraying concrete on the cliff face to hold them in place. It will take years. I-40 runs from Wilmington. North Carolina to Barstow, California, and any detour around the Great Smoky Mountain section is dozens of miles. Trucks have gotten stuck on twisty narrow mountain roads and are banned on another major highway through the area U.S. 441 through Great Smoky Mountains National Park.
