Mark Carney's first big test on the world stage
KANANASKIS, Alberta — In Canadian diplomatic circles, 'Charlevoix' is shorthand for summit disaster. Avoiding a repeat of the 2018 summit that Donald Trump set ablaze is job one for Prime Minister Mark Carney this week as he hosts G7 leaders.
Carney came to power by campaigning openly against Trump's belligerence. But now he has a direct line to the president, with whom he's negotiating an economic and security deal.
It's a high-wire good cop/bad cop routine — and the rookie politician is playing both roles on home soil.
"Carney really does have to square a circle," said Louise Blais, a senior special adviser on U.S. and international affairs at the Business Council of Canada. "Canadians feel bruised by the president. So he's got to be nice, but not too nice."
Blais warned that Trump could easily be distracted by a cold welcome from angry and frustrated Canadians who don't want him on their side of the border. Even if protesters won't get near the summit, demonstrations are sure to make news.
"We know that the president pays attention to the media, so I just hope that Canadians give the prime minister a little bit of grace to navigate this summit," she said.
Carney welcomes his counterparts and a phalanx of other world leaders and influencers amid a swirl of crises in the Middle East and Ukraine, widespread tariff consternation and social unrest on America's streets.
Add to that list the shocking back-to-back shootings of two Minnesota lawmakers in their homes — and a deadly Air India disaster. There's a lot to disagree about, and even more to be distracted by.
Janice Stein, founding director of the Munk School of Global Affairs & Public Policy, says keeping the band together for the entirety of the agenda would count as a win.
"This summit is all about relationship management," Stein told POLITICO. "If the prime minister can keep all the allies at the table, that alone will enable agreement on some issues — but paves the way for better management of the issues that are important to everyone."
In other words: If Trump and the allies stick around the Kananaskis lodge for the duration, that could — maybe — make it easier to get things done together down the road.
Christopher Sands, director of the Hopkins Center for Canadian Studies, credits Carney with bringing pragmatism to his hosting duties. Sands said Carney took unpleasant conversations about defense spending off the table, at least for now, when he unveiled a plan to reach NATO's current benchmark of 2 percent of GDP.
"He understands the problems. He's not showboating," Sands said. "He wants to deliver positive change. He doesn't want to have a fight over the communiqué."
Officials from multiple delegations have telegraphed there will be no traditional joint communiqué to cap the confab, though all sides will work to hammer out issue-specific statements wherever they can cobble together common ground.
With so many colliding variables, including the prospect of all-out war between Israel and Iran, few summit-watchers are willing to predict what else will come of the gathering.
Only three months on the job, Canada's prime minister is also attempting a series of tricky diplomatic resets with some of his country's thorniest frenemies.
Carney's decision to invite Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi drew backlash from Canada's Sikh lawmakers and the wider diaspora. Canada's national police force is currently investigating allegations that Indian government agents were linked to the murder of a Sikh activist in a Vancouver suburb.
Carney has also moved to thaw relations with China following a seven-year diplomatic deep freeze, and he extended an invite to Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman — another rocky relationship under former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.
China isn't invited to Alberta and the Saudis aren't attending, but Goldy Hyder, the Business Council of Canada's president and CEO, pointed to the invite list as a signal that Carney is not like his predecessor.
Trudeau, whose relationship with Trump was fraught for most of their shared years in office, hosted that tense confab in Charlevoix that went off the rails.
"We've been seen to be a bit preachy around the world," Hyder said, referencing a view that the former prime minister was keener to project values than accept tradeoffs in his country's best interest.
"We have to lean in more with our own interests and our role that we can play in a world that is rapidly changing," Hyder told POLITICO.
That means dealing with global players that don't embrace liberal democracy. Arif Lalani, a senior adviser at StrategyCorp and former Canadian ambassador in Iraq, Jordan and Afghanistan, has long called for a reset with India, China and Gulf nations.
"You have to be intellectually and diplomatically uncomfortable,' Lalani said. 'But that doesn't mean you can't tell right from wrong. You can still act with your values, but you've got to deal with the world as you find it."
Investors are waiting. "Capital is emotionless. It goes where it grows,' said Hyder. 'We need to show that the G7, and countries that are invited there, understand the importance of creating the right environment for capital to be deployed in their respective countries to build energy security and supply-chain resilience."
The Kananaskis guest list also includes Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung and United Arab Emirates President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan. They're joined by NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte and World Bank President Ajay Banga.
A Canadian official briefing reporters last week had high hopes for Carney's dance card: 'Scheduling will be challenging, but the intent will be for the prime minister to meet with as many of the leaders as possible, and we certainly hope all of them.'
Still, not everyone stayed on the guest list.
Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto withdrew two days before the summit, opting instead for talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin.
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