With Security Unraveling, Burkina Faso's Traore Is Getting Desperate
In early May, Jama'at Nusrat al-Islam wal-Muslimin, or JNIM, launched a series of large-scale, coordinated attacks in the north and east of Burkina Faso, highlighting the deteriorating security situation in the country since Capt. Ibrahim Traore seized power in a coup in September 2022. Traore opted for a militarized approach to the Islamist insurgency that has bedeviled Burkina Faso since 2015, believing he could drive JNIM back by force alone. But his counterinsurgency strategy has only deepened the crisis and fueled ethnic hatred, even as he has begun to repress all critical voices and anyone he perceives as a threat—including within the army—to an unprecedented level.
The focus of JNIM's most recent attacks was Djibo, the major city in northern Burkina Faso that is home to 300,000, many of them internally displaced people from nearby villages. For the past several years, the city has been under a blockade by the al-Qaida-affiliated group, which controls the surrounding countryside. On May 11, motorcycle-riding assailants overwhelmed government security forces, seizing the city's military camp and looting numerous weapons stored there, including pickup trucks mounted with machine guns. They also targeted the Volunteers for the Defense of the Homeland, or VDP, a state-backed pro-government militia, with at least a hundred people reportedly killed in total. Simultaneously, JNIM attacked other nearby locations, and the following day the group struck in the east of the country, where it briefly occupied the town of Diapaga.
Though present in all three countries of the central Sahel—Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger—JNIM sees Burkina Faso as the 'weak link' and has concentrated its efforts there. As such, it has controlled large swathes of Burkinabe territory for years, particularly in the north and east, with just one-third of the national territory estimated to be under government control. But until now, the group had largely adopted a guerrilla warfare approach, operating in rural areas that the state and army struggle to administer. These most recent attacks on urban centers are alarming both for their unprecedented scale and for potentially signaling a shift in the group's strategy.
'If the Burkinabe authorities fail to regain the initiative against JNIM, we may unfortunately see some secondary cities fall under its control,' says Mathieu Pellerin, Sahel analyst at the International Crisis Group.
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Tanguy Quidelleur, a researcher at the Sorbonne University, is similarly concerned about JNIM tightening its presence around the capital, Ouagadougou, and the country's second-largest city, Bobo-Dioulasso. But although the group appears to be on the offensive and seizing the initiative, Quidelleur is not convinced it has the ambition and the capacity to hold cities, due to its roots as a rural insurgency.
'Taking a city means handling public services like water and electricity, which is complex,' he explains. 'They lack the administrative or political structures to manage urban zones unless they co-opt others.'
Whether or not that is the case, Traore's handling of the security situation since seizing power has played into JNIM's hands.
First, he abandoned the community dialogue initiatives pursued by previous governments, which aimed to demobilize some of the insurgents, in favor of an exclusively military approach. But, as Pellerin pointed out, 'a military solution alone cannot solve a problem rooted in a sociopolitical and socioeconomic context that drives many citizens to take up arms.'
Worse still, Traore is relying on an army that is incapable of delivering results, in part due to severe logistical weaknesses. When units are attacked, reinforcements arrive late, if at all, and ground troops lack air support. Meanwhile, JNIM strengthens its position by looting substantial war spoils, including weapons, ammunition and vehicles, as in Djibo.
Besides its disastrous results on the ground, Traore's strategy has further undermined security by increasing civilian exposure to jihadist attacks. While civilians have been vulnerable since the beginning of the conflict, that increased with the creation of the VDP in 2020 and even more so with the militia's nationwide expansion under Traore. As Quidelleur explained, 'Jihadists are increasingly targeting civilians, whom they accuse of supplying men to the VDP.'
Both the Burkinabe and the VDP are also guilty of serious abuses against civilians that disproportionately target the Fulani ethnic group from which JNIM recruits a large portion of its fighters. The most recent massacre took place in March near Solenzo, in the west of the country. According to Human Rights Watch, the army and the VDP killed at least 130 Fulani civilians, including women, the elderly and children. Such massacres fuel the vicious cycle of conflict by pushing young Fulani men to join JNIM to protect themselves and take revenge against the state.
In short, civilians are caught between jihadists and state forces supported by the VDP, forcing more and more people to flee their villages. Today, there are an estimated 3 million internally displaced people in a country with a population of about 23 million, resulting in a catastrophic humanitarian situation.
A Burkinabe analyst who spoke on the condition of anonymity is deeply concerned about the broader societal impact of the war, particularly with regard to the demonization of the Fulani as terrorists. 'The discourse is becoming more uninhibited, with increasing calls for massacres,' this person said. 'Those who commit abuses film themselves eagerly, post on social media, and no one is shocked.' War, the analyst added, is transforming Burkinabe society, making it 'more violent,' even as 'ethnic hatred is growing.'
The military collapse is also fueling discontent within the armed forces, with many officers reportedly at odds with how Traore is handling the war. Some observers believe another coup is possible, and the government seems to agree. On April 21, it denounced a 'major conspiracy' and arrested several officers. The army is fractured, and Traore is aware of it. Upon taking power, he restructured the armed forces and created Rapid Intervention Battalions, or BIR, to fight JNIM—but also to prevent a coup. And in October 2023, he dismissed the chief of staff of the gendarmerie, Lt. Col. Evrard Somda, who was then arrested in January 2024. 'Traore believed Somda posed a threat to him because he is a highly competent and respected officer, and the gendarmerie is a well-trained, effective and sizable force,' notes the Burkinabe analyst.
'The question now,' says Pellerin, 'is: Who among the BIR and other 'secret' units that Traoré created remain loyal to him? It's hard to know for sure, but recent arrests and instances of orders being refused suggest his control of the very apparatus he built is challenged.'
Fearing another coup, Traore is now cracking down on any form of opposition or perceived threat to an extent never seen in Burkina Faso. Numerous politicians, journalists and human rights defenders have been imprisoned. Some have even been conscripted by the army as a form of punishment and humiliation, including Ablasse Ouedraogo, a former foreign minister who was forcibly enlisted despite being 70 years old.
But the repression is now even targeting high-ranking regime figures. Several judges were conscripted in August 2024 after initiating legal proceedings against Traore supporters. And in an almost unthinkable move, the brother of the Mogho Naba—the king of the Mossi people, a traditional authority who plays a significant role in the country—was abducted on April 30, just days after the government claimed to have foiled a coup attempt. Reportedly, Traore had asked the Mogho Naba to mediate—a role he often assumes in such situations—but the king refused. The security minister accused traditional leaders of being involved in the coup plot.
'Many safeguards have been dismantled,' said the Burkinabe analyst, expressing grave concern. 'If judges, a chief of staff and the brother of the Mogho Naba can be arrested, it means no one is safe. And there's no one left to oppose Traore.'
In short, the more pressure JNIM applies, the more divisions within the junta and Burkinabe society deepen—and the more Traore lashes out at anyone perceived as a threat. There is little hope for improvement as long as Traore remains in power.
Tangi Bihan is a journalist based in Guinea, where he is a correspondent for Radio France Internationale (RFI). He writes also for Afrique XXI and Le Monde diplomatique.
The post With Security Unraveling, Burkina Faso's Traore Is Getting Desperate appeared first on World Politics Review.
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