Fordoward Thinking
Iran may still negotiate with US, taking a long view, while skirmishing with Israel. Even if its nuclear infra is damaged, its knowhow isn't. But if the conflict spreads, welfare of 9mn Indians in the region will be New Delhi's first concern
For two decades every United States administration said it might someday bomb Iran's enrichment plants. On Saturday night that 'someday' arrived. B-2 stealth bombers dropped 30,000-pound 'bunker buster' bombs while submarines and aircraft launched Tomahawks at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan, the three most consequential nodes in Iran's IAEA monitored nuclear network.
Trump declared that 'Fordow is gone', and that Tehran must 'agree to end this war'. The flourish was vintage Trump – muscular and headline grabbing. But behind the applause lines lies a strategic gamble whose downsides may echo far beyond Qom.
Trump crossed a threshold earlier presidents tiptoed around, turning an Israel-Iran slugfest into a US-Iran confrontation. He insists the raid was a 'one-off', intended to cripple enrichment. Although neither US nor Israel has produced evidence that Iran was on the brink of building a bomb, the Pentagon's quick look report claims the strikes set the programme back by years at minimal cost.
Physics, however, counsels humility. Centrifuges are hardware while enrichment expertise is software lodged in scientists' heads. Bombs can destroy cylinders but not knowledge. Hardliners in Tehran will now argue that only a nuclear weapon can deter the next bunker buster. Did the raid delay a bomb or make it inevitable?
Iran accused US of a grave violation of the UN Charter, NPT and international law and vowed that it will not go unanswered. The easiest escalation is to menace the Strait of Hormuz through which about a fifth of global oil passes every day. Next may come missile salvos on Gulf energy infra or on US installations, and then the possible activation of proxies from Lebanon to Yemen.
With Iran's parliament reportedly approving the closure of the strait, Brent could easily move past $100 a barrel.
Oxford Economics projects $130 if flows are disrupted, a level that would push world inflation back toward 6%. Traders are already paying a war premium in afterhours quotes.
Jerusalem meanwhile is jubilant. Netanyahu called the strike a bold decision. Strategically Israel has shifted part of the fight and the risk to Washington. If Iran retaliates, Americans rather than Israelis will calibrate the counterpunch. That is deterrence by entanglement in the short run. Over time it hands Iran a larger menu of US targets and risks dragging America into a war it does not want.
Russia immediately cited the bombing as proof of US recklessness while Beijing called it a serious violation of international norms. Any condemning move at the Security Council will face a US veto.
However, in the General Assembly the Global South is expected to side with Iran in significant numbers.
For India the strike lands like a thunderclap at a cricket match. New Delhi has tried to balance a growing partnership with Washington, deep defence ties with Israel and consequential arrangements with Tehran, from the Chabahar port to International North-South Transit Corridor and once-robust crude imports. That balancing act has lately been criticised by the main opposition party.
● The immediate anxiety is economic. The Gulf supplies 54% of India's oil, generates about 40% of its remittances and accounts for more than $170bn in two-way trade. India imports more than 80% of its crude; every ten dollar rise in Brent adds about one billion dollars a month to the import bill and pressures the rupee. Consumer inflation just slipped below 5%; a Hormuz scare could undo that gain and complicate RBI's plan to cut rates. GOI is already moving to secure supplies, eyeing the strategic petroleum reserve and talking to several producers to ensure continuity.
● A second priority is the safety of nearly nine million Indians working in the region. Evacuation from Iran and Israel is underway. Operation Sankalp ships in the region can be helpful, if required.
Diplomatically India has open channels with Washington, Tehran and Jerusalem, but leverage is thin while missiles fly. Still New Delhi may be able to offer discreet messages that help each side edge away from the brink, just like back-channel efforts by Qatar and Muscat.
Meanwhile others such as Saudi Arabia and UAE are actively counselling restraint.
The key actors need face-saving options. That also means Washington spelling out what de-escalation looks like. Would it accept enrichment capped below weapons grade? Does it envisage returning to the JCPOA framework with phased sanctions relief? Absent clarity Tehran will read 'time for peace' as code for surrender.
In US, supporters have praised decisive action; critics have warned that the President had bypassed Congress and demanded a War Powers vote. Trump's boast that the mission was historic and limited is politically smart yet strategically ambiguous. If Iran swallows the blow and returns to talks the White House can claim victory. If Tehran retaliates Washington can strike again and say it had no choice. Either way the attack chips away at the nonproliferation regime and bets that humiliation will not ignite a wider war.
The US entry into another West Asian conflict recalls 1991 and 2003, but this round involves nuclear facilities, peer power pushback and an energy hungry Global South. Fordow's tunnels may indeed be rubble, yet geopolitics rarely collapses neatly. US strikes may be tactically brilliant. Strategically they kick a radioactive can down a much steeper road. That road needs to be kept from becoming a cratered battlefield. The test is whether diplomacy can move faster than the bunker busters.
The writer is former permanent representative of India to UN and served as an international civil servant at IAEA
Facebook Twitter Linkedin Email Disclaimer
Views expressed above are the author's own.
Hashtags
Try Our AI Features
Explore what Daily8 AI can do for you:
Comments
No comments yet...
Related Articles
Economic Times
40 minutes ago
- Economic Times
Gold Price Prediction: War tensions push yellow metal down by Rs 1,900 from peak. Turbulence ahead?
Live Events How to trade gold? Manoj Kumar Jain suggested the following ranges for gold and silver on MCX: Gold has support at Rs 98,660-98,280 and resistance at Rs 99,400-99,850 Silver has support at Rs 1,05,400-1,04,650 and resistance at Rs 1,07,000-1,07,800 Gold rates in physical markets Gold Price today in Delhi Gold Price today in Mumbai Gold Price today in Chennai Gold Price today in Hyderabad (You can now subscribe to our (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel Amid geopolitical tensions and a war scenario, Gold August futures contracts at MCX opened flat at Rs 99,175/10 grams, which is up merely by Rs 66 or 0.07%. However, the prices of the yellow metal have slipped by Rs 1,900 from their all-time high of Rs 1,01,078/10 silver July futures showed strength, opening higher by Rs 503 or 0.47% at Rs 1,06,727/ gold and silver prices hovered near $3,360 and $36 per ounce, respectively, on Monday, remaining volatile as tensions escalated in the Middle East after the U.S. joined Israeli strikes on Iran's nuclear Trump warned of further military action if Iran resists peace, intensifying fears and boosting demand for safe-haven Friday, gold and silver settled on a weaker note in the domestic market while settling on a mixed note in the international markets. Gold August futures contract settled at Rs 99,109 per 10 grams with a loss of 0.22%, and silver July futures contract settled at Rs 1,06,224 per kilogram with a loss of 1.09%.Gold and silver showed very high price volatility and slipped from their highs amid the hawkish policy stance of the U.S. Fed. The U.S. Fed maintained a status quo on interest rates and also downgraded growth also show concerns about higher inflation due to U.S. trade and silver also plunged after the U.S. President said that it will take two weeks to decide whether to intervene in the Israel-Iran war or not. However, the US stroke on Iran's three main nuclear facilities over the comes at a fragile moment for the global dollar index is also facing resistance at higher levels and supporting prices of gold and silver. Today, the US Dollar Index, DXY, was hovering near the 99.01 mark, gaining 0.31 or 0.31%.'We expect gold and silver prices to remain volatile this week amid volatility in the dollar index and geo-political tensions and Chairman's testify but gold prices could hold its support level of $3,280 per troy ounce and silver prices could also hold $34.40 per troy ounce levels on a weekly closing basis,' said Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvifinmart Commodity Research.'Investors now turn to upcoming U.S. economic data and speeches from Federal Reserve officials, including a two-day congressional testimony by Chair Jerome Powell, to gauge the Fed's response amid rising risks from tariffs and conflict,' believes Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities at Mehta suggests buying silver around Rs 95,500 with a stop loss of Rs 95,000 for a target of Rs 96, gold (22 carat) prices in Delhi stand at Rs 57,216/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,968/8 gold (22 carat) prices in Mumbai stand at Rs 57,576/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 61,416/8 gold (22 carat) prices in Chennai stand at Rs 56,936/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,744/8 gold (22 carat) prices in Hyderabad stand at Rs 56,880/8 grams while pure gold (24 carat) prices stand at Rs 60,576/8 grams.: Recommendations, suggestions, views and opinions given by the experts are their own. These do not represent the views of The Economic Times)
Hindustan Times
41 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
Pakistani politicians, activists call on govt to review Trump's nomination for Nobel peace prize
Several Pakistani politicians and notable figures have asked the government to reconsider its decision to recommend President Donald Trump for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize after the US bombed Iran's three nuclear sites. Pakistan said it would support US President Donald Trump's nomination for a Nobel peace prize(AP) The government, in a surprise move on Friday, announced that it would nominate Trump for the prestigious award due to his peacemaking efforts during the recent India-Pakistan conflict. A letter of recommendation, signed by Deputy Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar, has already been sent to the Nobel Peace Prize Committee in Norway. But the decision came under scrutiny after the US bombed Iran's Fordo, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites, joining Israel to dent Tehran's nuclear programme. Also Read: Pakistan condemns US strike on Iran day after nominating Trump for Nobel Peace Prize The Dawn newspaper reported that some leading politicians demanded the government review its decision in light of the latest development. Veteran politician Maulana Fazlur Rehman, who heads the Jamiat Ulema-i-Islam (JUI-F), demanded that the government rescind its decision. 'President Trump's claim of peace has proven to be false; the proposal for the Nobel Prize should be withdrawn,' Fazl told workers at a party meeting in Murree on Sunday. He said that Trump's recent meeting and lunch with Chief of Army Staff (COAS) Field Marshal Asim Munir 'pleased Pakistani rulers so much' that they recommended nominating the US president for the Nobel Prize. "Trump has supported the Israeli attacks on Palestine, Syria, Lebanon and Iran. How can this be a sign of peace?' Fazl questioned. 'With the blood of Afghans and Palestinians on America's hands, how can he claim to be a proponent of peace?' Trump had campaigned for office as a 'peacemaker' who would use his negotiating skills to quickly end wars in Ukraine and Gaza, but both conflicts are still raging five months into his presidency. Former senator Mushahid Hussain wrote on X: 'Since Trump is no longer a potential peacemaker, but a leader who has willfully unleashed an illegal war, Pakistan government must now review, rescind and revoke his Nobel nomination!' He said Trump had been 'trapped by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the Israeli war lobby, committing the" biggest blunder of his presidency'. 'Trump will now end up presiding over the decline of America!' Trump 'engaged in deception and betrayed his own promise not to start new wars', Mushahid said in another post, strongly condemning the US attacks on Iran. Pakistan Tehreek-i-Insaf (PTI) lawmaker Ali Muhammad Khan wrote 'reconsider' on his X account, highlighting the 'US attack on Iran and continuous US support of Israeli killings in Gaza'. In a separate post, the Opposition PTI condemned the 'unprovoked' US strikes and voiced 'total support' for Iran's sovereignty. Raoof Hasan, head of PTI's political think-tank, said the government's decision was now a 'cause of unmitigated shame and embarrassment for those who were instrumental in making the choice'. 'That's why it is said that legitimacy can neither be bought nor gifted,' said Hasan, as he took a jibe at the government. He also denounced the US' 'total disregard for international covenants' through attacks on Iran. Former senator Afrasiab Khattak said, 'The sycophancy adopted by the Pakistani ruling elite in nominating President Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize is not part of normative conduct in international diplomacy.' 'It was most embarrassing to announce the nomination hours before Trump ordered to bomb Iranian nuclear sites,' the veteran politician noted. Jamaat-i-Islami chief Naeemur Rehman has said the decision 'undermines our national dignity and grace'. Maleeha Lodhi, Pakistan's former ambassador to the US, termed the move 'unfortunate' and said it did not reflect the public's views. Senior journalist Mariana Baabar, in a post on X, said that 'today Pakistan does not look too good either', sharing the government's post announcing its intention to nominate Trump for the Nobel. Author and activist Fatima Bhutto asked: 'Will Pakistan withdraw its nomination for him to receive the Nobel Peace Prize?'
Hindustan Times
41 minutes ago
- Hindustan Times
Putin was asked why is he not helping Iran. His reply
Amid the escalating tensions in the Middle East, Russian President Vladimir Putin has clarified Moscow's role in joining the Iran-Israel conflict, following the US entry with surprise air strikes against Iranian nuclear sites. Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting.(REUTERS file) Putin, a long-time ally of Iran, called out those who questioned Moscow's commitment to its allies, terming them "provocateurs", TASS news agency reported. The Russian President said that Russia has a nuanced relationship with its allies in the Middle East. Also Read: What Russia, China said on US strikes on Iran nuclear sites: 'Dangerous escalation...' "I would like to draw your attention to the fact that almost two million people from the former Soviet Union and the Russian Federation reside in Israel. It is almost a Russian-speaking country today. And, undoubtedly, we always take this into account in Russia's contemporary history," Putin said while speaking at the plenary session of the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum. Follow LIVE updates on Israel-Iran conflict here He further said that 15 per cent of Russia's population follows Islam and Moscow is an observer in the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation. Russia has maintained a delicate balancing act in the Middle East for decades. Moscow enjoys warm relations with Israel even as it developed strong economic and military ties with Iran. Also Read: 'Made a big mistake': Khamenei vows punishment for Israel, no mention of US attack on Iran Putin has also emphasised that Russia has a trusting relationship with Iran and helped build its first nuclear power plant in Bushehr. Russia condemns US strikes Following US' Sunday strikes on Fordow, Natanz, and Esfahan nuclear sites in Iran, Russia condemned the bombings, calling them "irresponsible" and a "gross violation of international law". "It is already clear that a dangerous escalation has begun, fraught with further undermining of regional and global security," the Russian foreign ministry said. Last week, Putin had offered to help mediate an end to the Israel-Iran conflict. He said that Moscow could help negotiate a settlement that could allow Tehran to pursue a peaceful atomic program while assuaging Israeli security concerns. Also Read: Why are Iran and Israel fighting? Rivalry of regional foes explained Meanwhile, Iran Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed punishment for Israel day after the US struck three nuclear facilities in Iran. Taking to X, the official handle of the Iranian leader vowed to intensify attacks against Tel Aviv, but made no mention of the US attacks. "The punishment continues. The Zionist enemy has made a grave mistake, committed a major crime; it must be punished—and it is being punished. It is being punished right now," Khamenei said in the post.
